Smuggling Uranium

Victor Douglas · Nov 11, 2015

I'm writing a thriller in which the antagonist is trying to smuggle about a hundred pounds or so of weapon-grade uranium from Mexico into the United States. I want to depict him considering two different methods: sending it by air-cargo vs. taking it across the border either on foot or in a vehicle (he also considers sneaking across an unguarded section of the border, coyote style, but he is under a severe time constraint and he thinks that will take too long, and he does not know the local area very well, nor does he speak Spanish). The uranium is separated into about 5 small units, and the containers have some home-made shielding on them, but nothing high-tech. He has about a dozen people helping him. So I have a couple of questions:

1. What kind of routine examination does US Customs subject international air cargo to? When, where and how does it pass customs?

2. Same question for the border crossing. Do they have radiation detectors in place for all lanes going into the US?

3. Finally, I like to be really thorough when I show this character engaging in planning. What kind of paperwork or other barriers will he have to concern himself with in order to get contraband into the US?

Is there any realistic way he can pull this off?

King Neptune · Nov 12, 2015

I don't know about land ports of entry, but there are radiation detectors that are used for shipping containers. Air cargo usually would pass customs where it lands. You might check the ICE website for details.

The thing about contraband is that it requires no documentation.

The best method would depend on the amount involved. It would be easy to bring in five pounds, but there would be problems with a hundred pounds. It also depends on which isotope is involved; U235 presents problems that do not exist with U238.

Victor Douglas · Nov 12, 2015

Thanks for your answer! It's weapons-grade 235. It's ultimately going to be used to construct an atomic bomb, so...

jclarkdawe · Nov 12, 2015

The problem with your question is that anyone who knows isn't going to say anything.

There's two problems with smuggling uranium. First is one you allude to of radiation. Geiger counters are fairly cheap and once the background radiation level for an area is determined, it's easy to see a spike in the radiation level. Shielding for radiation involves lead, which compounds the other big problem.

And that's weight. Uranium is one of the heaviest substances known to man. It's hard to hide that weight. And if there's no shielding, your character is going to be very dead very soon. But the shielding is going to add even more weight. Think about how heavy those lead protectors are for taking x-rays.

Freight that is being shipped need a bill of lading and a custom's document (you can get the basic form from your post office). Shippers that do a frequent business with US customs can receive a preferred status. Individual shipments can receive a wide variety of levels of search.

So far, no one has figured out a way to successful transport uranium past custom agents. Much as I think there are several weak points in their systems, for uranium I think the defenses of weight and radiation are going to continue to block illegal transport. The amount of weapons grade uranium that is not accounted for is relatively small.

Air freight coming into this country is put into a custom's area until the paperwork is checked and a visual inspection is completed. Uranium will show up fairly easily in the handling. The only thing that weights the same is lead. You handle enough freight and you notice when something is heavier than it is supposed to be.

Best of luck,

Jim Clark-Dawe

Victor Douglas · Nov 12, 2015

Thanks! I haven't specified within the story what shielding he is using, but in my own mind I was thinking water. You could disguise forty pounds of liquid as just being the liquid. So the real question here is do they give every entry point a geiger counter, and how sensitive are they?

Chris P · Nov 12, 2015

They don't scan you with a Geiger counter, but there are detectors and they're really sensitive.

My girlfriend's mother was undergoing radiation therapy for thyroid cancer and hopped across the border to Sault Ste. Marie, Canada for shopping. Coming back, the sirens go off and muscle-bound ninjas with assault rifles come out and put cones around the car. She had a letter from the doctor and it was all cleared up in a few minutes. But if a medical amount of thyroid medication can set off the dirty bomb detectors, 100 pounds of uranium (which I'm sure they're looking for anyway) is going to for sure set them off.

And yes, my future mother in law can shut down a border. Yikes.

jclarkdawe · Nov 12, 2015

Every place has a background level of radiation. A radiation source increases radiation in an area. The calculation of that area is something I don't know, but this is all predictable. Geiger counters are relatively inexpensive. You'd be shocked at how many Geiger counters there are in the US.

Forty pounds of water is only 5 gallons. I'm not sure how much shielding that would provide you with. But fluid is easily identifiable in transit because fluid moves. Water is also not used much in transit because of its weight. This is why things like orange juice and soda is shipped as a concentrate and water added. It's a lot cheaper.

Remember that if 100 pounds of uranium is missing that people are going to be searching for it. It's tracked fairly tightly.

Best of luck,

Jim Clark-Dawe

King Neptune · Nov 12, 2015

I think you should forget about the monitored crossings. All containers and air freight is monitored for radiation.

Victor Douglas · Nov 12, 2015

Not quite ready to give up all that easily. Going by this article: http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/furanium.asp and this study: http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/fissionw/fissionweapons.pdf it seems you only need about 20 pounds of highly enriched uranium to make a low kiloton bomb, and that less than an inch of lead shielding is needed to get the radiation down to safe levels. Break the 20 pounds into five pound lumps, and consider that water is about one twentieth or so less dense than lead, and I think if you suspended the five pounds in water such that there was at least ten inches of water all around it (a large water cooler could do that), would that set off the sensors?

Gunna have to find out how many curies radiation therapy gives off. More research, yah!

Congrats on your marriage.

jclarkdawe · Nov 12, 2015

A very large water cooler. 10 inches in each direction means a container that's 20 inches by 20 inches by 20 inches, or a total of 8,000 cubic inches. Ignoring the space the uranium would take up, you need 34 gallons of water or about 270 pounds of water.

Threat assessment is based on two factors -- What are the consequences and what is the likelihood. Nuclear attacks are not high on the probability but are massive on the consequences.

And I 'm not sure how well water works with gamma rays.

Best of luck,

Jim Clark-Dawe

RKarina · Nov 12, 2015

Going through any monitored border crossing from Mexico into the US is going to be problematic, not necessarily because of the uranium and radiation, but because the officials at these crossings are specifically looking for anything out of the ordinary that might indicate a smuggler (human, drugs, etc).

Anything large enough to conceal a chunk of uranium and requisite shielding is going to attract attention. Yes, even a large cooler. Anything that looks questionable will result in a "secondary" inspection - where you get out of your vehicle, and the border guards do anything from simply visually inspect everything, to them pulling everything out of your vehicle and searching every compartment and container within.

So... hide the cooler in the trunk. And cross your fingers the border patrol doesn't ask you to pop the trunk (which they can) or the dogs don't identify a potential bomb.

For it to work, you've got to have a combination of skill, equipment, good acting on your character's part, research for the best border crossing (where there are not dogs, minimal high risk activity, and either very busy, or very dead) plus a whole big heaping helping of luck.

I used to do the border crossings between Mexico and Southern California on a regular basis. Sometimes I got through with nothing more than showing my ID and saying "nothing to declare", sometimes I spent a very long time waiting while they went through my entire car. Same person. Same car. Nothing different.

Reasons I know border patrol will take a second look? You're in a van, truck with a camper, or a vehicle with a large trunk (anything with potential to hide people/products). Your vehicle is sitting lower than it should (indicates there's something heavy they're not seeing). They're on high alert status (as they would be if there was missing uranium). Add in the "something didn't seem right" reasons, "suspicious behavior", etc.

As a reader, I'd have a hard time swallowing it.

I'd have a much easier time believing that someone in the dozen people helping him not only speaks Spanish, but can arrange a coyote, or is one themselves, and can smuggle both the character, and the uranium across the border.

King Neptune · Nov 12, 2015

Victor Douglas said:
Not quite ready to give up all that easily. Going by this article: http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/furanium.asp and this study: http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/fissionw/fissionweapons.pdf it seems you only need about 20 pounds of highly enriched uranium to make a low kiloton bomb, and that less than an inch of lead shielding is needed to get the radiation down to safe levels. Break the 20 pounds into five pound lumps, and consider that water is about one twentieth or so less dense than lead, and I think if you suspended the five pounds in water such that there was at least ten inches of water all around it (a large water cooler could do that), would that set off the sensors?

That's a more reasonable quantity, but as JCD pointed out the thing to carry it in would catch the attention of the inspectors.

If I were doing the smuggling, which I am not inclined to do, I would go in a smallish boat or by private airplane, with a slight preference for the boat. Lead and graphite are more effective in handling the radiation.

The suitcase bombs built in the 1950's or 1960's were supposed to be quite effective, and the total weight of one was something that could be carried in one hand by a strong man. "The United States and the Soviet Union have acknowledged producing nuclear weapons small enough to be carried in specially-designed backpacks during the Cold War, but neither have ever made public the existence or development of weapons small enough to fit into a normal-sized suitcase or briefcase. It has also been reported that Israel has produced nuclear warheads small enough to fit into a suitcase."[SUP][3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suitcase_nuclear_device[/SUP]

[SUP]I don't know what you are having your terrorists build, or why, but it could be small enough to be carried one someone's back, or even smaller, if you go with Israeli design. [/SUP]

Victor Douglas · Nov 12, 2015

Yeah, that's what I figured. I decided they broke it out into smaller packages, and then assemble them onsite, both to make them individually more concealable, and also in case a couple of them were intercepted (which is totally going to happen). But I thought that chartering a private aircraft or boat into the US would actually attract more attention, rather than less, than simply trying to blend into the crowd at a border crossing. I guess I have to give up on the water idea. I have to figure out what the sensitivity of the US Customs detectors are, and what the radioactivity of a 5 pound lump of enriched uranium would be with some reasonable lead shielding on it. I mean a man can carry 40-50 lbs if he has to.

Thanks once again everyone, for your kind responses. It is helping.

King Neptune · Nov 13, 2015

Victor Douglas said:
Yeah, that's what I figured. I decided they broke it out into smaller packages, and then assemble them onsite, both to make them individually more concealable, and also in case a couple of them were intercepted (which is totally going to happen). But I thought that chartering a private aircraft or boat into the US would actually attract more attention, rather than less, than simply trying to blend into the crowd at a border crossing. I guess I have to give up on the water idea. I have to figure out what the sensitivity of the US Customs detectors are, and what the radioactivity of a 5 pound lump of enriched uranium would be with some reasonable lead shielding on it. I mean a man can carry 40-50 lbs if he has to.

Chartering a boat in Mexico and bringing it to the U.S. might get attention, but chartering a boat in the U.S. and spending a day fishing, during the course of which another boat would approach, and they would transfer the material. Later the boat would return to the place it came from, and the occupants would have a couple of large fish among other things.

jclarkdawe · Nov 13, 2015

Victor Douglas said:
I have to figure out what the sensitivity of the US Customs detectors are, and what the radioactivity of a 5 pound lump of enriched uranium would be with some reasonable lead shielding on it.

Anybody who knows the answer to this isn't going to tell you. You're going to have to invent a number.

There are weak points in the US Customs system that would permit smuggling of certain items. But some items are so next to impossible to smuggle into the US that no one even wants to try. First problem is disappearing 100 of uranium. Depending upon the variety of radioactive material depends upon how closely it is tracked. But it's all tracked and anything goes missing, an alert is issued.

From another novel, someone suggests that the US has the ability to track radioactivity levels from satellites. This is probably accurate. So starting problem is not only do you need to worry about the border, but all of its transit.

I know quite a few ways to viably smuggle stuff into the US. I haven't been able to come up with anything viable for nuclear material. I'm sure it's possible, but I haven't seen anyone come close to making it work. Hence, most writers steal it from a US site. It's both more probable and easier to do.

Private craft, whether chartered or owned, is a very viable alternative.

I wish I could tell you a good source of material on smuggling. Unfortunately I can't think of one. My criteria on nuclear material would be 100% shielding, but the weight would then kill me.

Best of luck,

Jim Clark-Dawe

Helix · Nov 13, 2015

What about dropping it out of a small plane flown in from Mexico. That way the plane doesn't have to land.

The other thing might be to pay some people smugglers to get a number of victims to carry small amounts of it through unshielded.

King Neptune · Nov 13, 2015

Helix said:
The other thing might be to pay some people smugglers to get a number of victims to carry small amounts of it through unshielded.

That might work, and radiation sickness wouldn't be a concern. That would help to show the smuggler as a heartless bum.

RKarina · Nov 13, 2015

King Neptune said:
Chartering a boat in Mexico and bringing it to the U.S. might get attention, but chartering a boat in the U.S. and spending a day fishing, during the course of which another boat would approach, and they would transfer the material. Later the boat would return to the place it came from, and the occupants would have a couple of large fish among other things.

This could work really well... If they've got fish onboard, there's reasons to have coolers, and ice, etc. If the day-boat originated in the US, there could be little to no real inspection on the way back in. That does require being coastal.

jclarkdawe · Nov 13, 2015

Dropping it from a plane would be interesting. Rather destructive when it hits.

Trick in moving a heavy object illegally is finding a legal object that also is heavy. For example, train engines and tanks are not concerned with weight. However, neither of those would really work in this case.

However, boat keels are built heavy, and have actually used depleted uranium. Sailboat keels can be bolt-on and swapped out. Plenty of space for the lead shielding, followed by water shielding. Add a bolt-on keel with your uranium in the Caribbean and sail to the US. Go through customs, take sailboat as close to the final point as possible, then remove keel. Run sailboat over some rocks and send the boat to a yard to be fixed after the keel ripped off from the rocks.

Still have some problems traveling on land, as you've got a thousand pound keel, but it's doable. Customs does not search keels absent a serious suspicion. Putting drugs in a keel would not work, because drugs are too light.

Best of luck,

Jim Clark-Dawe

Weirdmage · Nov 13, 2015

Weapons grade urinanium is heavily monitired. Not only by the international organisations, but by several intelligence organisations.

I'm old enough to remember the "1,000 Soviet suitcase nukes are missing" narrative of the early 1990s. Several sources has debunked that claim. But even if it was true, and some terror organisation had bought them. It would have to be a well funded organisation, probably with access to money from an oil-rich state in the Middle-East... So, yeah, getting that across a border is a problem that would be pretty small compared to actually obtaining waepons grade uranium to begin with.

Victor Douglas · Nov 13, 2015

OK, lots of new ideas to go over here-- this is awesome guys, thanks! But first, I thought I would share the results of some research I have been doing. Turns out that the effectiveness of radioactive shielding is measured in "halving thickness" the thickness of a material one would need to half the radioactivity coming from a gamma source (like enriched uranium). The halving thickness of lead is .4 inches, or 1 cm. Basically, ten halving thicknesses reduce the original radioactivity to roughly 1/1000 strength. Fifteen thicknesses basically seals it. But guess what the single most effective shielding material is? Depleted uranium (halving thickness of .08 inches).

Since they originally stole this stuff from a reactor facility in Pakistan, obtaining a depleted uranium container would not be completely impossible.

So, with that in mind:

King Neptune said:
Chartering a boat in Mexico and bringing it to the U.S. might get attention, but chartering a boat in the U.S. and spending a day fishing, during the course of which another boat would approach, and they would transfer the material. Later the boat would return to the place it came from, and the occupants would have a couple of large fish among other things.

Interesting idea. Sounds like a smuggler technique. I'm virtually certain the US has radar covering the coasts and even small boats are tracked. If two boats rendezvous in the middle of the ocean, is the Coast Guard alerted to check the possibility of someone handing off contraband?

Helix said:
What about dropping it out of a small plane flown in from Mexico. That way the plane doesn't have to land.

The other thing might be to pay some people smugglers to get a number of victims to carry small amounts of it through unshielded.

The dropping out of an airplane sounds difficult and complicated- cant have the uranium spilling all over the countryside! As for the mule idea- that would probably work but he doesn't have time to recruit a bunch of people. How could he guarantee they wouldn't all be intercepted?

jclarkdawe said:
...

Trick in moving a heavy object illegally is finding a legal object that also is heavy. For example, train engines and tanks are not concerned with weight. However, neither of those would really work in this case.

However, boat keels are built heavy, and have actually used depleted uranium. Sailboat keels can be bolt-on and swapped out. Plenty of space for the lead shielding, followed by water shielding. Add a bolt-on keel with your uranium in the Caribbean and sail to the US. Go through customs, take sailboat as close to the final point as possible, then remove keel. Run sailboat over some rocks and send the boat to a yard to be fixed after the keel ripped off from the rocks.

Still have some problems traveling on land, as you've got a thousand pound keel, but it's doable. Customs does not search keels absent a serious suspicion. Putting drugs in a keel would not work, because drugs are too light.

Best of luck,

Jim Clark-Dawe

That's an awesome idea, but probably overkill. We are down to 20 pounds, due to discussion in this very thread. Maybe they can just tie it to the keel, and tow it underwater? Ten feet down or so I imagine it would be undetectable. OTOH, I note that this might be a source of depleted uranium, which could then be used as shielding (see my note on shielding halving thicknesses, above).

Weirdmage said:
Weapons grade urinanium is heavily monitired. Not only by the international organisations, but by several intelligence organisations.

I'm old enough to remember the "1,000 Soviet suitcase nukes are missing" narrative of the early 1990s. Several sources has debunked that claim. But even if it was true, and some terror organisation had bought them. It would have to be a well funded organisation, probably with access to money from an oil-rich state in the Middle-East... So, yeah, getting that across a border is a problem that would be pretty small compared to actually obtaining waepons grade uranium to begin with.

Yes, there is a world-wide alert out for them- the heroes are right on their trail. That's why the villain knows he cant waste any time- he has to move it across the border as quickly as possible. I'm not making things easy for my antagonists. It's intended to be a tense scene.

Well, so many interesting ideas! I'm really going to have to think this one through- but that's ok, because I can use nearly all of this as ideas he has himself while trying to figure out the problem. Thanks guys!

jclarkdawe · Nov 13, 2015

Dropping things off of boats for later pickups goes back at least to France and England's fighting in the 1700's when Brandy needed to be smuggled into England. It's been a constant for the US since Prohibition and the Drug War. People are caught way too often to rely on this method.

You want a 100% sure thing to smuggle it into the US. There's no such thing as overkill here. And if they're trying to beat the authorities, the chances of the chase lasting long are slim. You've got to use aircraft, but that's a small world. Or you have to disappear it in Pakistan and slow down. But travel by boat is going to be too slow for your purposes.

Remember that your smuggler might be smarter than any one Custom's agent. But he's not smarter than a hundred of them. Every time they catch someone, they learn a new way of stopping smugglers.

You're going for the ultimate in problems for smuggling. That means to make it credible in your book, you've got to come up with the ultimate solution. Or James Bond it and not worry about credibility.

Best of luck,

Jim Clark-Dawe

Chris P · Nov 13, 2015

Um, you know, they find immigrant tunnels under the border not exactly often, but at least often enough. There's twice I can remember, so there are undoubtedly more. And not just people go through them, but I'm sure all manner of drugs and whatever else someone wants to smuggle. Habe your character get in good with drug or immigrant smugglers and you got your way in.

Helix · Nov 13, 2015

Victor Douglas said:
The dropping out of an airplane sounds difficult and complicated- cant have the uranium spilling all over the countryside!

Dropping stuff out of an aeroplane is trivially easy. You can use parachutes, if you want a soft landing. As for the uranium spilling over the countryside -- isn't he making a bomb?

Victor Douglas said:
As for the mule idea- that would probably work but he doesn't have time to recruit a bunch of people. How could he guarantee they wouldn't all be intercepted?

He doesn't have to recruit a bunch. He only has to recruit a people smuggler.

What I don't quite get is that he's smart and organised enough to get uranium out of Pakistan and into Mexico in order to assemble a nuclear bomb in the US, but is so disorganised once he gets to the border. Why hasn't he got this under control? I'm perplexed.

But, okay. So why not use drones?

Weirdmage · Nov 14, 2015

I wonder if there isn't a much easier route into the US than through Mexico...

The US has a massive border with Canada, and it isn't nearly as heavily guarded as the Mexican border. Not to mention there is a lot of forest that you can transport things through.
The problem then of course is getting things into Canada. Since the smugglers in this case has a lot of resources, they could go over/through the Arctic. (Planes from Europe used to fly that way to North America about 50 years ago.)
I don't think it would be a massive problem to get through Russia if you have money to bribe those that hsould stop you from doing so, and I don't think people will find that unrealistic.

I am not familiar with how easy, or difficult, it would be to just fly to the extreme north of Canada though. But if this is planned in advance it could be done under the guise of re-supplying one of those "crossing the Arctic" expeditions that happens from time to time.
Less realistic perhaps is to use a Russian sub to get it into Canadian waters. Either a sub that is still in use but whose crew can be bribed, or a decommissioned one that has been bought by some tycoon.
In summer, at least, it should be possible to get to Canada by surface vessel.

P.S. I use Canada because I'm pretty sure it would be easier than going through Alaska.

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