How small is TOO small of a niche market to query an agent?

Scriptissima · Oct 8, 2015

I am working on a nonfiction book that is targeting a - growing - niche of (possible) readers. Given that this book will not very likely have mass market appeal, what realistic projected number of copies sold is the bare minimum an agent (and trade publisher) would expect to consider representing (and publishing) such a niche work? Would querying agents make sense at all, if you're targeting only a rather tiny market with this specific work?

Say I was working on a book on Yoga With Donkeys: Donga. I have done extensive research and I know that both the numbers of yogis and the numbers of donkey keepers are steeply on the rise, and after yoga for cats and yoga with dogs, Donga is the next big thing that I anticipate to hit the pet yoga circuit. Even better, at this time there is not a single book covering Yoga With Donkeys, so I could sweep, no, own the market. Yay. However, I am well aware that while there is likely a certain interest in this Donga book among current and future Dongis, it is quite a small niche after all, so I don't anticipate sales will go above a low to medium 4-digit number of copies sold. So which is the best route to go? Would you immediately choose the self-publishing route while building your platform along the way (Donga blog, Donga guest articles in blogs, online media, and print media, social media accounts and so on, Guerilla Donga performances at public places and such to self-market the hell out of it)? Or might an agent be interested to market this niche work to a trade publisher, partially considering the possible trend-setting (as opposed to trend-following) aspect?

[ I am not really writing about Donga - Yoga With Donkeys. I totally made that up, as I don't want to give away the concept just yet. I am actually working on a ground-breaking book on Reiki with Rabbits - Rabki. ;-) ]

Treehouseman · Oct 8, 2015

I was juggling some figures and worked out that with the time spent, you would need to sell 6500 copies of "a thing" to break even an agents fee.

But I know people who will negotiate a contract for under $200, you just need to find the publisher yourself.

Undercover · Oct 8, 2015

It depends on what route you want to take. Do you want an agent? Maybe someone to guide you along the way and submit to places you can't on your own? Or do you want to be in complete control of your work and self publish? You'd have to have great editing and a really good marketing plan too if you decide to go down that avenue.

I wouldn't worry about it being a small market just yet. Now would be a good time to do more research on this subject.

Scriptissima · Oct 8, 2015

Treehouseman said:
I was juggling some figures and worked out that with the time spent, you would need to sell 6500 copies of "a thing" to break even an agents fee.

Oh, great help, thank you!

But I know people who will negotiate a contract for under $200, you just need to find the publisher yourself.

Also good to know. I have compiled a list of smaller, independent trade publishers that might be interested in my Donga/Rabki book ;-) based on their current title selection. All of those publishers also accept unagented (is that a word?) submissions, so I might try to query those directly, then go and try to find an agent who might at least go over the contract with me, should an offer materialize.

Undercover said:
It depends on what route you want to take. Do you want an agent? Maybe someone to guide you along the way and submit to places you can't on your own? Or do you want to be in complete control of your work and self publish? You'd have to have great editing and a really good marketing plan too if you decide to go down that avenue.

I wouldn't worry about it being a small market just yet. Now would be a good time to do more research on this subject.

Thank you!
In all honesty, I see both the advantages and the disadvantages of either form of publishing, and at this time, I don't have a clear favorite, though I am leaning towards a trade publisher (which will likely "require" me to have an agent fo various reasons), if I have to pick one and stick with it at this time. One of the reasons (and likely the main reason) being the superior editing aspects (I am definitely looking for several rounds of excellent editing, as I am not a native English speaker, and while my English is fine, it is nowhere near my native language capacities, so I need a bunch of highly critical eyes to make sure I don't butcher your beautiful language), another reason being the reputation factor, yet another reason being that I have a few other nonfiction book concepts in the works at this time (all somewhat related to the Donga book - you know, Practical Donkey-Keeping, The Urban Donkey, Upside-Down Donkey, Travels with an Opinionated Donkey, The Donkey in the Bathtub, and so on), so I would ideally like to find a publisher who would become "my publisher" in the long run. I also like that I might have a chance to get this book contracted before finishing the ms. As of right now, the ms is partially written and I am working on a proposal (which helps me shape the focus of the book); I intend for the proposal to be done and edited and re-edited and ready to go out to agentland or independent-publisherland by the end of the month.

But the more I think about it, I find the shorter lead time, the higher profit margin, and the overall control aspect of self-publishing quite alluring, and especially with the smaller number of copies I expect to be able to sell self-publishing might be the smarter choice for Donga - A Introduction to Yoga with Donkeys. And wouldn't querying agents or trade publishers with a book that can't reasonably be expected to sell a gazilion of copies be wasting everybody's time? I guess that is where I'm struggling with the decision-making process, and that is why any experienced comment is very much appreciated.

I guess a might have to start getting editor quotes and maybe illustrator quotes and then go from there? Make a list and check it twice? *sigh*

The marketing plan is the least of my worries, especially since I intend to do a lot of my marketing myself regardless of whether I find an agent and a trade publisher or whether I choose to go the self-pub route. I have a strong background in PR, and nobody is going to resist the Guerilla Donga demonstrations all over the country anyway, and there is plenty of media allure based on how great of a TV or photo opportunity a yoga-practicing donkey would be. ;-)

Aggy B. · Oct 8, 2015

Non-fiction tends to be more of a niche market. (It doesn't mean there aren't a lot of books that have broader appeal, but the nature of the subjects tends to lend toward smaller markets.) The thing you need to do is try and identify as much of the market for the Donkey Yoga book, and then identify potential venues in which you might be able to place your book. (Libraries? Book clubs? Donkey breeder conventions?) Any agent (or publisher) will be looking a possible sales, not just things that seem like a sure thing. (Is anything in publishing a sure thing?)

And, while it's true that an agent has to consider whether something could sell enough to make it worth their time, they will also be considering an author's potential career. A single book might not sell a lot of copies, but a particular author might have more to offer long term. (I.e. Donkey Yoga and Rabbit Reiki.)

Self-pubbing can pay off, but it means a lot of time that you would spend writing, is spent on selling your first book. That's one reason I spent time looking for an agent (for fiction). I don't currently have the time to write and sell so I need someone who has the connections to sell my books to publishers.

Best of luck.

CEtchison · Oct 8, 2015

My agent reps a lot of non-fiction and this is posted on the agency site:

"Successful nonfiction projects for mainstream publishers need to not only be a new take on the subject, world, and/or our society (even memoirs), but must be written by or strongly supported by a leading expert in the field you're writing about. Authors should be well known authorities close to the pinnacle of expertise in their chosen field, and know who the target audience is for their work.

Ideally, you should also have a strong marketing platform geared to the audience or actively be in the process of developing one, or be a professional writer co-authoring with such a leading authority."

If you and your book fit those qualifications, then why not try the traditional route?

Scriptissima · Oct 8, 2015

Aggy B. said:
Non-fiction tends to be more of a niche market. (It doesn't mean there aren't a lot of books that have broader appeal, but the nature of the subjects tends to lend toward smaller markets.) The thing you need to do is try and identify as much of the market for the Donkey Yoga book, and then identify potential venues in which you might be able to place your book. (Libraries? Book clubs? Donkey breeder conventions?) Any agent (or publisher) will be looking a possible sales, not just things that seem like a sure thing. (Is anything in publishing a sure thing?)

Good points. I intend to market the heck out of this thing, because my heart is really in it and because it is something that plays a sizable role in my life and because I think it will make things for other people (and their donkeys, haha) easier and nicer in a way. So I have already compiled a massive list of blogs, for instance, to market this book to (donkey blogs, yoga blogs, yoga-with-pets blogs), contact information for any store selling either donkey or yoga supplies, donkey-related trade shows, yoga conventions and so on, but also traditional media, and given my background in media and PR - I am a journalist and PR consultant - I think I will be able to come up with some good, possibly novel, angles that will help my cause). So I think I should be able to add a rather decent and expansive marketing and PR "plan" to my proposal. I also intend to canvas book stores, yoga studios, supply stores and so on to hopefully get some store or other to sell the Donga book in their brick-and-mortar businesses. And so on.

And, while it's true that an agent has to consider whether something could sell enough to make it worth their time, they will also be considering an author's potential career. A single book might not sell a lot of copies, but a particular author might have more to offer long term. (I.e. Donkey Yoga and Rabbit Reiki.)

Oh, good point. And a point I like to hear.

Self-pubbing can pay off, but it means a lot of time that you would spend writing, is spent on selling your first book. That's one reason I spent time looking for an agent (for fiction). I don't currently have the time to write and sell so I need someone who has the connections to sell my books to publishers.

I hear you. It would definitely be nice to have someone with the right connections and some foresight and experience do some of that work me.

Best of luck.

Thank you, and the same to your future writing and publishing projects.

SummerSpring said:
My agent reps a lot of non-fiction and this is posted on the agency site:

"Successful nonfiction projects for mainstream publishers need to not only be a new take on the subject, world, and/or our society (even memoirs), but must be written by or strongly supported by a leading expert in the field you're writing about. Authors should be well known authorities close to the pinnacle of expertise in their chosen field, and know who the target audience is for their work.

Ideally, you should also have a strong marketing platform geared to the audience or actively be in the process of developing one, or be a professional writer co-authoring with such a leading authority."

If you and your book fit those qualifications, then why not try the traditional route?

Thank you for that.
It's a tad complicated as far as the qualifications go. I have all the experience and then some, but I don't have the on-paper qualifications an agent might be looking for. That said: This book doesn't require any academic merits that real-life experience can't substitute for. I will have a chapter on first aid for the yoga-practicing Donkey, but that will be provided by (or rather consulted by; I will do the actual writing) a donkey expert in the veterinarian field, so the vet will be quoted regarding all things medical. I absolutely want and need someone with the proper credentials for this chapter, and I already have that person. Other than that, this will be a layperson's ( = my) account, and to give that aspect a tad more umph, I am currently trying to get a couple of blurbs by some experts in the donkey and yoga fields to increase my chances of securing an agent and a publisher.

Jamesaritchie · Oct 9, 2015

Treehouseman said:
I was juggling some figures and worked out that with the time spent, you would need to sell 6500 copies of "a thing" to break even an agents fee.

But I know people who will negotiate a contract for under $200, you just need to find the publisher yourself.

Juggling what figures? And what agent's fee? Agents don't charge fees. Agents receive fifteen percent of whatever the writer earns. There is no fee involved. And what time spent?

I think you either need to post what figures you're talking about, what "agent's fee" even means, and where you get "time spent", or what you say doesn't even make sense.

Jamesaritchie · Oct 9, 2015

It would help is you posted what you actually are writing about. It would also help if you posted exactly how you arrived at your expected sales. I seriously doubt you can judge how many copies of your book will sell. If you can actually do this, you should go work for a publisher because no one there can tell.

"Niche" books with expected sales of a thousand copies have sold millions of copies, and books that were expected to be massive bestsellers have sold a thousand copies, and then faded away into nothingness.

Scriptissima · Oct 9, 2015

Jamesaritchie said:
It would help is you posted what you actually are writing about.

I agree that it would help, however, I won't post it on a public forum at this time, because I don't want to put myself in a position in which I am giving away a unique idea for free - only to see someone else running with it before I can get it on the shelves. Makes sense? As of right now, let it suffice that it is related to animals and recreation.

It would also help if you posted exactly how you arrived at your expected sales. I seriously doubt you can judge how many copies of your book will sell.

Of course I can't project anything exactly, I am simply trying to figure out a realistic market size (in terms of "how many books can I realistically expect to sell?" Which most writers likely do to some extent). So basically I am taking an educated guess based on sales figures for somewhat related books (that I could find; mostly books related to training or living with such animals) and based on the numbers of keepers of such animals as well as of participants in said recreational activity in this country.

If you can actually do this, you should go work for a publisher because no one there can tell.

Like I said, I can't reliably project sales numbers and I would never imply that I can, but I can do my best to evaluate a market and the target groups. Which is what I did.

"Nice" books with expected sales of a thousand copies have sold millions of copies, and books that were expected to be massive bestsellers have sold a thousand copies, and then faded away into nothingness.

All true, and yet everybody - writers, agents, and publishers - keeps guessing when it comes to sales goals and base decisions on those guesses. Wouldn't you agree?

How small is TOO small of a niche market to query an agent?

Scriptissima

Treehouseman

Undercover

I got it covered

Scriptissima

Aggy B.

Not as sweet as you think

CEtchison

Scriptissima

Jamesaritchie

Jamesaritchie

Scriptissima