How many offers of representation does a typical agent make in a year?

newauth · Jun 29, 2015

Warning: Conjectures and made up numbers below.

I was called out on this in another section, so I thought I'd post here.

I'll start by defining a "typical agent" as an average of all agents, new and seasoned, across all fiction genres. A new agent, for example, might place 4-10 books per year with publishers; a seasoned agent might place 1-2 per year (some may place 0).

Let's say a "typical agent" has the following stats each year:
- He's able to place 4 books with a publisher
- He's unable to place 3 books

That brings the number of offers of representation (to authors) that he made in that year to 4 + 3 = 7. Is it likely that the agent only made 7 total offers during the entire year? Or would that number be higher, let's say closer to 15 or 20? In other words, would the agent have made 15 or 20 offers but landed only 7 clients (of which 4 sold successfully)?

And, more important, do my discrete numbers reflect the "typical agent" decently well?

P.S. If someone has hard, verifiable numbers (for specific agents), I would love to hear them.

oceansoul · Jun 30, 2015

I think experiences between agents are probably way too varied to break down into what's typical or try to establish a mean. I also don't think it would be particularly useful to writers.

lizmonster · Jun 30, 2015

What oceansoul said. I doubt there are anything like meaningful averages. The best you could do, I suspect, is the sort of scatter chart you get when people collect info on how much money writers make, which is interesting but useless to an individual (except possibly for setting expectations for newbies).

As for how many agents get offers refused? I've seen a few people on these boards discuss having multiple offers, so I know it happens. But because of the way people query (most of us seem to query in small batches and stop when we get an offer, so it's statistically unlikely the majority of us would deal with multiple offers), I suspect the percentage is extremely low, like single digits, and the only reason I think it might be that high is that agents make so few offers to begin with.

Sheryl Nantus · Jun 30, 2015

Who knows?

It's a meaningless number, in my opinion. There's so many agents out there, so many authors, so many genres and so many publishers that I can't imagine where you'd get a result or what it'd be worth.

If you want to get an agent, start querying those in your genre and who you want to work with. There's no guarantee of anything in this business and no way of predicting what's going to happen until you put your work out there.

JMO YMMV

Captcha · Jun 30, 2015

newauth said:
Warning: Conjectures and made up numbers below.

I was called out on this in another section, so I thought I'd post here.

I'll start by defining a "typical agent" as an average of all agents, new and seasoned, across all fiction genres. A new agent, for example, might place 4-10 books per year with publishers; a seasoned agent might place 1-2 per year (some may place 0).

Let's say a "typical agent" has the following stats each year:
- He's able to place 4 books with a publisher
- He's unable to place 3 books

That brings the number of offers of representation (to authors) that he made in that year to 4 + 3 = 7. Is it likely that the agent only made 7 total offers during the entire year? Or would that number be higher, let's say closer to 15 or 20? In other words, would the agent have made 15 or 20 offers but landed only 7 clients (of which 4 sold successfully)?

And, more important, do my discrete numbers reflect the "typical agent" decently well?

P.S. If someone has hard, verifiable numbers (for specific agents), I would love to hear them.

I have no hard numbers, but I'm having trouble following your conjectures.

Most agents represent clients, not individual books. So there's not really a direct correlation between placing books with publishers and taking on new clients. An agent might sell 30 books and take on no new clients, or might sell 5 books and take on 20 new clients, depending on the stage of the agent's career.

Perks · Jun 30, 2015

newauth said:
P.S. If someone has hard, verifiable numbers (for specific agents), I would love to hear them.

Get a subscription to Publishers Marketplace for information on how many sales a particular agent has made. The numbers, by year, will vary for all sorts of reasons, but you'll get answers to this type of question, at least the number for many specific agents who report their sales to PM. It's a great resource for new writers trying to break into and understand the business.

If I could (though maybe I can't) I would ask you to stop making up hypothetical numbers. It doesn't help anything and you seem bent to confirmation bias, so it makes the ascent to an answer much steeper.

Beyond that, there is no "typical" agent. The one thing that's reliable is that most reputable and currently active agents receive thousands of queries a year. Of those, they will ask to see a small percentage of the works submitted to them. Of those, they will offer representation to a small percentage. Of those, they will sell a good percentage.

The specific numbers don't matter.

Perks · Jun 30, 2015

I would also like to say that while the types of numbers you're seeking can be interesting, they don't actually represent trends or statistics in the most general sense. It's important to realize that this diversion into breaking out the abacus gives rise to thinking that success - both in getting an agent and securing a contract for publication - is a lottery or a game of percentages. It's not.

Certainly there is an element of chance or luck, if you will, that your work crosses desks under circumstances where the work scratches the itch of the agent and editor in a time when they are able to take it on. Beyond that chance, it's down to the skill, professionalism, and diligence of the writer.

And because it hasn't come up yet in your two threads, here's Slushkiller, by Teresa Nielsen Hayden. The post explains, with clarity and humor, the trajectory of rejection and the occasional acceptance.

tsharpe · Jun 30, 2015

newauth said:
Warning: Conjectures and made up numbers below.

I was called out on this in another section, so I thought I'd post here.

I'll start by defining a "typical agent" as an average of all agents, new and seasoned, across all fiction genres. A new agent, for example, might place 4-10 books per year with publishers; a seasoned agent might place 1-2 per year (some may place 0).

Let's say a "typical agent" has the following stats each year:
- He's able to place 4 books with a publisher
- He's unable to place 3 books

That brings the number of offers of representation (to authors) that he made in that year to 4 + 3 = 7. Is it likely that the agent only made 7 total offers during the entire year? Or would that number be higher, let's say closer to 15 or 20? In other words, would the agent have made 15 or 20 offers but landed only 7 clients (of which 4 sold successfully)?
.

I'm not sure why a seasoned agent (who has established connections, experienced authors with backlist, etc) would place less books than a new agent (who might still be solidifying their connections/representing mainly debut writers)? And like Captcha said, you can't assume every sale=new client.

An agent's first priority is their already existing clients. So the slush-pile and queries and finding new talent/clients is often not their top focus. An agent might only acquire one new client a year. That doesn't mean she's a bad agent or she's offering to a bunch of authors and they're turning her down. It might mean she's selective and selling all her existing client's books and doing well for herself and her authors. When I signed with my agent, I remember her mentioning she hadn't offered on a book in a long time (around a year) until mine and she's someone who's high on PM's "top sellers" list in kidlit.

Agents definitely get rejected. There are multiple offer situations, naturally. But in my experience, agents are nothing but gracious when you turn them down and happy for you if they see your book sold, because they loved your writing and want it out in the world.

amergina · Jun 30, 2015

Getting an agent isn't a math problem. That is, you can't solve it by some algorithm, even if you do have a PhD in stochastic mathematics.

Sage · Jun 30, 2015

It doesn't matter how many clients the average agent takes on in the average year. It only matters whether an agent is interested enough in your book to take it on.

cornflake · Jun 30, 2015

newauth said:
Warning: Conjectures and made up numbers below.

I was called out on this in another section, so I thought I'd post here.

I'll start by defining a "typical agent" as an average of all agents, new and seasoned, across all fiction genres. A new agent, for example, might place 4-10 books per year with publishers; a seasoned agent might place 1-2 per year (some may place 0).

Why would a seasoned agent make fewer sales than a new agent? How would an agent, much less an experienced one, stay in business making 0-1 sales a year?

Let's say a "typical agent" has the following stats each year:
- He's able to place 4 books with a publisher
- He's unable to place 3 books

That brings the number of offers of representation (to authors) that he made in that year to 4 + 3 = 7.

Wait, what? Why're you equating books to offers of rep? Agents, except very, very new ones, HAVE clients. They sell those clients' books - that's why they're clients.

Is it likely that the agent only made 7 total offers during the entire year? Or would that number be higher, let's say closer to 15 or 20? In other words, would the agent have made 15 or 20 offers but landed only 7 clients (of which 4 sold successfully)?

Again, I have no idea why you're not considering or mentioning the current clients. Some agents take on a bunch of clients, some take on none, because their lists are full. Also, not everything sells in the same year regardless.

And, more important, do my discrete numbers reflect the "typical agent" decently well?

P.S. If someone has hard, verifiable numbers (for specific agents), I would love to hear them.

Check PM, but you seem sort of confused about agents in general.

Putputt · Jul 1, 2015

I remember seeing a few agents posting their annual stats. Here's one from Kristin Nelson: http://nelsonagency.com/category/agent-kristin/statistics/

It's certainly not meant to represent the majority of agents' stats, but it does show something you've completely miscalculated, which is that many of the sales an agent makes might not be from authors they just signed that year.

Aggy B. · Jul 1, 2015

So. Yeah. Not sure how figuring out how many offers of rep an agent makes on average would help you out.

I know that in the past two years my agent has made two offers. Perhaps more, but only two I can verify - one to me last year and one to someone this year. I also know that he is repping three novels for me at the moment. So the number of offers he makes in relation to the amount of work he is representing is not the same. And the amount of work he sells is not based on the number of offers he makes either.

This, to me, seems like a dead end distraction. What you should be concerning yourself with is making sure you've written the best book you are capable of writing, polished your query letter, and are querying agents who rep your genre.

Jennifer_Laughran · Jul 1, 2015

I can't speak for anyone else, but I sell... a lot more than that. I mean - most agents survive on commission - how COULD an agent only sell four books and also eat? (For the record, last year I sold more like 50, this year is on track to meet or beat that. When I was newer, I had fewer clients, so naturally I sold fewer books because I had fewer to sell.) Are there books that I can't sell? Sure - but they are not the MAJORITY of books by any means. I would say... maybe 1/5 of the books I sign don't sell? But generally speaking I then am able to sell a FUTURE book for that author. In fact some of my biggest success stories are authors whose first book didn't sell, but then future books went on to do really well.

I have approximately 50 clients. I've sold books for 92% of them -- the rest are very recently signed people, and people who are busy with other large-scale projects and haven't sent me anything new. Most are busy with existing contracts, a couple are semi-retired and not sending me new projects. I might take on 2-3 new clients a year... there is no particular "goal", it's just if I love a book and think I can sell it. Last year I think I only signed one. So far this year I have taken on two, but if I fell in love with a few more projects, I wouldn't hesitate to sign them up as well. But if I don't, I'm not worried, as my existing clients give me plenty to do.

I have offered and been turned down over the years, but I can count the number of times that has happened on one hand.

Jamesaritchie · Jul 1, 2015

It's just my personal experience, but the average numbers for the agents I've had or known has been right around two to five per agent. I can't remember a case of more than this, except when an agent was moving out on her own, and took a bunch of writers with her.

Look at it this way. An agent can only handle so many writers. Most often, I've found this number to be from forty to sixty, depending on the agent. If she took on fifteen or twenty per year, she'd be up to her ears in more writers than she could possibly handle.

My experience is that this holds true for single agents, and for larger agencies. Four to five per agent.

But it doesn't usually matter. If an agent sees big, flashing dollar signs, she will take that novel on, and if she doesn't, she won't, regardless of averages. The only time I see this change is when an agent has such a large stable that she doesn't even want queries. She full, and probably more than full.

Having said this, I'm not at all sure there is such a thing as "typical", or that averages have any meaning at all. All that matters is whether you can write a novel that makes an agent say yes. If you can write a good, marketable novel, nothing else matters. If you can't do this, nothing else matters, either.

newauth · Jul 1, 2015

Jennifer_Laughran said:
I have offered and been turned down over the years, but I can count the number of times that has happened on one hand.

Thanks for this real world data point.

Putputt said:
I remember seeing a few agents posting their annual stats. Here's one from Kristin Nelson: http://nelsonagency.com/category/agent-kristin/statistics/

Eddie Schneider does this too: http://eddieschneider.com/2012/09/14/some-stats/

Specifically, in 2012 he wrote: "I have ... offered representation 7 times, and signed 5 clients, for a .714 batting average."

Perks said:
It's important to realize that this diversion into breaking out the abacus gives rise to thinking that success - both in getting an agent and securing a contract for publication - is a lottery or a game of percentages. It's not.

I completely agree with this statement. That was not my reason for creating this post, rest assured.

Perks said:
Get a subscription to Publishers Marketplace for information on how many sales a particular agent has made. The numbers, by year, will vary for all sorts of reasons, but you'll get answers to this type of question, at least the number for many specific agents who report their sales to PM. It's a great resource for new writers trying to break into and understand the business.

Yes, their public-facing pages are a great help. I may just spring for a subscription . . .

Perks said:
and you seem bent to confirmation bias, so it makes the ascent to an answer much steeper.

You may be right; I had to kick myself for it.

Perks said:
The specific numbers don't matter.

I agree that the specific numbers don't matter in this case. Here, specifically, I was simply trying to get a "gut feel" on whether I, personally, was completely off the mark [in my understanding of the agenting portion of the industry].

I'm guessing I compiled the numbers (as a gut feel) after two years of stalking agents' blogs + Twitters, reading articles, watching interviews, and browsing discussion forums. The best way I felt was to throw some concrete numbers out and see if any objections bubbled up.

Perks said:
If I could (though maybe I can't) I would ask you to stop making up hypothetical numbers. It doesn't help anything

I am going to disagree. But at the risk of starting an argument, I'm only going to challenge you on this with a personal anecdote that took place between me & my doctor this week.

During my visit, she told me my treatment would need to continue. I asked her how long she thought it might continue. She simply said, "I don't know. Such & such things need to be fine before we're done."

I asked her to take a guess, based on her experience, how much longer my treatment might continue (note that she's been doing this for 10 years, and her father practiced for 40 years for the same type of treatment). Again, she replied with, "I don't know. It could be a while."

Frustrated, I threw out numbers. I said, "Would it be closer to 2 weeks or 20 weeks?" She immediately said, "Oh, no. Not 2 weeks." Then, after about 5 seconds, she said, "Closer to 10 weeks."

I smiled.

Despite the fact that it was just a guess, this exchange was valuable to me for several reasons:
1. I know now to expect a timeframe that's definitely longer than 2 weeks.
2. I know that my treatment will not take 36 additional weeks, like it did last time for this same exact treatment at this same exact stage.
3. I also know there's a good chance my treatment will be completed in 10-20 weeks.

Based on the above numbers, I can study my calendar and make plans. If I'd let the doctor leave it at "a while," I wouldn't be able to do any long-term planning w.r.t. this treatment. (Granted, these are educated guesses with some margin of error, but numbers (estimates) are not the devil.)

Perks · Jul 1, 2015

You know what? Knock yourself out. This is silly. I have learned a lesson and that is the value of my time.

Sage · Jul 1, 2015

newauth said:
I am going to disagree. But at the risk of starting an argument, I'm only going to challenge you on this with a personal anecdote that took place between me & my doctor this week.

During my visit, she told me my treatment would need to continue. I asked her how long she thought it might continue. She simply said, "I don't know. Such & such things need to be fine before we're done."

I asked her to take a guess, based on her experience, how much longer my treatment might continue (note that she's been doing this for 10 years, and her father practiced for 40 years for the same type of treatment). Again, she replied with, "I don't know. It could be a while."

Frustrated, I threw out numbers. I said, "Would it be closer to 2 weeks or 20 weeks?" She immediately said, "Oh, no. Not 2 weeks." Then, after about 5 seconds, she said, "Closer to 10 weeks."

I smiled.

Despite the fact that it was just a guess, this exchange was valuable to me for several reasons:
1. I know now to expect a timeframe that's definitely longer than 2 weeks.
2. I know that my treatment will not take 36 additional weeks, like it did last time for this same exact treatment at this same exact stage.
3. I also know there's a good chance my treatment will be completed in 10-20 weeks.

Based on the above numbers, I can study my calendar and make plans. If I'd let the doctor leave it at "a while," I wouldn't be able to do any long-term planning w.r.t. this treatment. (Granted, these are educated guesses with some margin of error, but numbers (estimates) are not the devil.)

And what's funny is that the people who do this, tend to be the ones who complain when the estimate is wrong. When you made plans at week 21 and it takes 36 weeks. When some complication makes it take even longer. They are the types of people who are likely to sue her because she gave the wrong timeframe. In her case, yes, estimates are the devil.

What's also funny is that you could have gotten the information from this thread by doing your own research on what's already out there, instead of throwing out made-up numbers and waiting for the reaction.

lizmonster · Jul 1, 2015

Medicine != publishing.

How many clients an agent has, and how many offers they've made that have been refused, has no bearing on your individual ms or your chances of securing representation.

I've heard of people querying for YEARS before success. (The Tom Clancy example is the most famous I've found - 250 rejections before a small publisher took him on.) I've heard of books being on sub for well over a year, and never selling. And I've heard of people finding an agent with their first query, and being on sub less than a month before a Big 5 deal.

Being an author is art + freelancing. You are wasting your time playing with numbers. If you want to be trade published, start querying your work. If you don't, get your self-pub shoes on (there are great resources on this very site).

newauth · Jul 1, 2015

Sage said:
And what's funny is that the people who do this, tend to be the ones who complain when the estimate is wrong. When you made plans at week 21 and it takes 36 weeks. When some complication makes it take even longer. They are the types of people who are likely to sue her because she gave the wrong timeframe. In her case, yes, estimates are the devil.

Yes, that tends to happen. I suppose I'll add a disclaimer next time I do this (i.e., "I'm not going to sue if you're wrong."

). Solid plans really should not be made at week 21 based on an estimate, but I do get some people would do that.

Sage said:
What's also funny is that you could have gotten the information from this thread by doing your own research on what's already out there, instead of throwing out made-up numbers and waiting for the reaction.

Well, I did research to the extent I knew how/where to; I barely know exactly where to glean this information from. The thread was also an opener for others to chime in on where I could dig up the information, I suppose.

All that said, I do recognize that knowing this information is of little value (I put that earlier in this thread as well). I was called out on the rejection rate & kept wondering if I was way off base on my understanding of agents' stats. That's all.

Others can glean from this thread what they will.

Jamesaritchie · Jul 2, 2015

The simple fact is that numbers are completely meaningless, and analogies are as worthless as farts in a hurricane. The only time numbers of any kind matter, the only time odds come into it, concerns you. The only odds question that even makes sense is, "What are the odds that you have enough talent, enough intelligence, and enough business sense to write an irresistible novel?"

Whether an agent signs one writer, or one hundred writers, it's always for the same reason. The agent firmly believe that writer has an irresistible novel. Regardless of numbers, agents and editors do not say no to irresistible novels.

This is not medicine, and agents and editors are not doctors. If you want an analogy that matters, think of them as prospectors. A prospector may go years without striking gold, but when he finds an ore-bearing rock or vein of quartz, he knows it, and he is going to keep it, even if he's already picked up any number of such ore-bearing material.

He is not going to find another piece of quartz that's shot through and through with gold and say, "I'd keep this, but I've already found ten today. Guess I'll leave this one here for someone else to find."

When agents and editors pass on a novel it's almost always because the writer has done something wrong. The writer has violated guidelines and written a novel that's too long or too short, which means it may sell somewhere, at sometime, and may even be a bestseller, but takes a lot longer to place, or is submitting to the wrong choice of agents or editors, or doesn't learn how to write a good query letter, or you name it. And, probably the biggest mistake, the writer assumes that he's a genius, and his first effort is going to be good enough to make readers give up their beer money to buy it.

Numbers simply have no meaning. Talent, work ethic, business sense, and intelligence make writers successful, and lack thereof causes failure. It's as simple as that.

Old Hack · Jul 2, 2015

newauth said:
Warning: Conjectures and made up numbers below.

I was called out on this in another section, so I thought I'd post here.

I'll start by defining a "typical agent" as an average of all agents, new and seasoned, across all fiction genres. A new agent, for example, might place 4-10 books per year with publishers; a seasoned agent might place 1-2 per year (some may place 0).

Let's say a "typical agent" has the following stats each year:
- He's able to place 4 books with a publisher
- He's unable to place 3 books

That brings the number of offers of representation (to authors) that he made in that year to 4 + 3 = 7. Is it likely that the agent only made 7 total offers during the entire year? Or would that number be higher, let's say closer to 15 or 20? In other words, would the agent have made 15 or 20 offers but landed only 7 clients (of which 4 sold successfully)?

And, more important, do my discrete numbers reflect the "typical agent" decently well?

P.S. If someone has hard, verifiable numbers (for specific agents), I would love to hear them.

If this were all an agent placed in a year the agent would be looking for a new job.

Agents typically have 30-80 existing clients. They sell hard and paperback domestic rights for them (one or two books a year) plus foreign and translation rights, plus audio, large print, and e-book rights, plus various other subsidiary rights.

On top of that, they then take on perhaps one or two new clients each year and sell perhaps fifty per cent of them, but they sell those books into more than one territory and format.

So yep, your figures are way out.

Perks said:
If I could (though maybe I can't) I would ask you to stop making up hypothetical numbers. It doesn't help anything and you seem bent to confirmation bias, so it makes the ascent to an answer much steeper.

Beyond that, there is no "typical" agent. The one thing that's reliable is that most reputable and currently active agents receive thousands of queries a year. Of those, they will ask to see a small percentage of the works submitted to them. Of those, they will offer representation to a small percentage. Of those, they will sell a good percentage.

The specific numbers don't matter.

Yep.

tsharpe said:
I'm not sure why a seasoned agent (who has established connections, experienced authors with backlist, etc) would place less books than a new agent (who might still be solidifying their connections/representing mainly debut writers)? And like Captcha said, you can't assume every sale=new client.

New agents typically take on more new clients than established agents do, and make fewer sales than established agents, and their sales tend to be less lucrative than those of established agents.

mellymel · Jul 2, 2015

amergina said:
Getting an agent isn't a math problem. That is, you can't solve it by some algorithm, even if you do have a PhD in stochastic mathematics.

And the best thing to come out of this thread for me is a new vocab word. Yeah!

BenPanced · Jul 2, 2015

newauth said:
<snip!>But at the risk of starting an argument, I'm only going to challenge you on this with a personal anecdote that took place between me & my doctor this week.<snip!>

lizmonster said:
Medicine != publishing.

What lizmonster said.

Medicine is an exact science and while there may be, say, three or four courses of treatment for a particular condition, a doctor can choose the particular treatment based on a set of given variables (age, weight, height, severity of condition, any allergies the patient may have to medications, personal preference on what the patients feels is right for them, etc.)

Writing? The important thing is "write a good book". This is so nebulous and subjective, you can't sit down with a chart of numbers and arrange them to achieve the desired outcome. You can pretty much no longer gauge the correct amount of time you can expect a reply. You can't know which agent is still with which agency unless you've either researched this online or just sent out a query. You can't even be sure that an agent who accepts 250,000-page epics about vampire zombies will be willing to read your 275,000-page short story about zombie vampires, even though it's Just That Much Different than what's popular in the current market.

You can't even know if an agent rejected your 275,000-page zombie vampire short story because she'd just read and accepted a 175,000-word zombie vampire novel two minutes before she opened your email.

Or you don't even know that while you had a killer query, your manuscript wasn't as good as the query (*raises hand*).

There are just so many unknowns in this business, you can't set up an accurate flowchart for every conceivable outcome. Numbers change every second to every minute, etc. Sales fluctuate. Acceptances are different from one year to the next. Because this is a business. You are not going to have concrete statistics that are the same year after year (if you do, I would seriously question your business practices and move on to the next person). It all depends on what a reader wants to read and what he's going to buy, especially as a repeat customer of the same author and their level of output or if there are any new trends he might be interested in and how saturated or not the market is. Projections are nice; however, you run the risk of estimating too much in either direction and coming out wrong, much more frequently than you do at the doctor's office.

Anna Spargo-Ryan · Jul 4, 2015

The most important thing to take from this thread is that it just makes absolutely no difference to your book.

If your book is no good, statistics won't save it. If it is good, statistics won't matter.

How many offers of representation does a typical agent make in a year?

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Supreme Guessinator

practical experience, FTW

permanently suctioned to Buz's leg

Not as sweet as you think

knows what she's looking for when she finds it!

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Such a nasty woman

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