Detroit Police Chief Explains Crime Drop

Don

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Whodathunkit?
Detroit has experienced 37 percent fewer robberies than it did last year, and Police Chief James Craig is crediting armed citizens for the drop.

“Criminals are getting the message that good Detroiters are armed and will use that weapon,” Chief Craig, who has been an open advocate for private gun ownership, told The Detroit News in an interview. “I don’t want to take away from the good work our investigators are doing, but I think part of the drop in crime, and robberies in particular, is because criminals are thinking twice that citizens could be armed.

“I can’t say what specific percentage is caused by this, but there’s no question in my mind it has had an effect,” he added.

In addition to the drop in robberies, Detroit has seen 22 percent fewer break-ins of businesses and homes and 30 percent fewer carjackings in 2014 than during the same period last year.
In addition to the Chief, at least one reformed criminal agrees.
Detroit resident Al Woods, a self-described former criminal who is now an anti-violence activist, told The News that he agrees that criminals are thinking twice about targeting innocents.

“If I was out there now robbing people these days, knowing there are a lot more people with guns, I know I’d have to rethink my game plan,” the 60-year-old told the paper.
Some people, OTOH, never understand that when you do more of the same, you get more of the same...
Chicago Police Superintendent Garry McCarthy has been very vocal about his support for stricter gun-control laws, despite his city having some of the toughest laws in the country and the most homicides of any city in the U.S. in 2012.
It'll be interesting to watch the statistics from this Tale of Two Cities over the next few years.
 

Diana Hignutt

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Oh come on, the real reason is there's nothing left worth stealing in Detroit...
 
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Wilde_at_heart

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Alessandra Kelley

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Oh come one, the real reason is there's nothing left worth stealing in Detroit...

Oh, I shouldn't but ... :ROFL:

The population dropped by more than a quarter in less than fifteen years - http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...02/19-facts-about-detroit-bankruptcy/3823355/

Fewer people out stealing things, fewer people to steal from ...

This and this, exactly.

I live in Chicago and regularly visit Detroit.

Chicago is a teeming, crowded, alive city packed with people and constant activity.

Detroit ... well, I actually would not feel unsafe walking through some of the most devastated areas, except that it would be kind of spooky. The city looks post-apocalyptic, with cathedrals and giant old train stations that are just empty shells, walls with no ceilings or interior, and block after block of empty abandoned houses turning into prairie. I saw a house like the Addams family's, a formerly beautiful old mansion taking up an entire block of wild grasses and trees.

The only busy place in Detroit seemed to be the little strip of Greek restaurants and Casinos near the river. There I did not feel particularly safe.

If there is less crime in Detroit than there was it is only because there are very few people spread over a giant area.
 

Magdalen

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All the really smart criminals stay off the mean streets - they do their dirty work from the safety of Tower 300 in the Ren Cen.
 
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cmhbob

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Hoplite

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I have a few problems here:

1) It's the opinion of two individuals. While their opinions are worthwhile to hear, it's not conclusive of the cause of the drop in crime.

2) It's comparing 2013 to 2014 data, not long term trends.

3) Using that same method (year-to-year comparisons), Dallas, TX [chosen for its stereotype of being gun friendly] is unsafe to live in since they experienced an increase in both murder and rape from 2011 to 2012. (http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Dallas-Texas.html) However, the trend has been a decrease in crime since 2000. Detroit as well has been expereincing a decrease in crime since 2006, and prior to that from 2000 to 2005 (2006 had an increase in crime). http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Detroit-Michigan.html

4) The long term trend for Chicago has been a decrease in crime, granted it has higher rates of crime than either Detroit or Texas. http://www.city-data.com/crime/crime-Chicago-Illinois.html

5) Chicago's murder rate dropped by 17% from 2012 to 2013. http://news.yahoo.com/2013-ends-big-drop-homicides-chicago-212612071.html

6) Something in the Washington Times article you link.

Chief Craig said, however, that he doesn’t think gun ownership deters criminals from attacking other criminals.


“They automatically assume another criminal is carrying,” he said. “I’m talking about criminals who are thinking of robbing a citizen; they’re less likely to do so if they think they might be armed.”
This make sense as criminals would be carrying guns prior to any increase in civilian use.

So criminal-on-criminal violence wont drop because they assume other criminals are carrying guns. A criminal, someone capable and willing to commit violence, and armed. Yet a citizen that may or may not be armed will be less likely to be targeted (compared to last year). This suggests to me that there is a point where being armed will only reduce crime so much (assuming that it does). Since criminals are victims of crime, even when they're assumed to be armed, I'd posit that law abiding citizens even if all were assumed to be armed would be targeted for crime as well. The possibility of being armed may deter some criminals, but evidently not all of them.
 

benbradley

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Oh, I shouldn't but ... :ROFL:

The population dropped by more than a quarter in less than fifteen years - http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...02/19-facts-about-detroit-bankruptcy/3823355/

Fewer people out stealing things, fewer people to steal from ...
And this drop in crime was over a one-year period. Requoting Don's quote:
In addition to the drop in robberies, Detroit has seen 22 percent fewer break-ins of businesses and homes and 30 percent fewer carjackings in 2014 than during the same period last year.
The drop in crime seems to be disproportionate to the drop in population over the same period. I'm not saying that's absolute evidence that it was caused by more guns in the hands of law-abiding citizens, but it's something to look at.
...
This make sense as criminals would be carrying guns prior to any increase in civilian use.

So criminal-on-criminal violence wont drop because they assume other criminals are carrying guns. A criminal, someone capable and willing to commit violence, and armed. Yet a citizen that may or may not be armed will be less likely to be targeted (compared to last year). This suggests to me that there is a point where being armed will only reduce crime so much (assuming that it does).
I don't know how rational criminals might be when presented with statistics, but maybe they'll hear this mayor's statements (whether verifiable or not), and have second thoughts. I wonder if the criminals are now the largest demographic leaving the city, making the mayor's statement self-fulfilling.

I can hear the mayor now: "The way to make the city safer for law-abiding citizens is to make it more dangerous for criminals."
Since criminals are victims of crime, even when they're assumed to be armed, I'd posit that law abiding citizens even if all were assumed to be armed would be targeted for crime as well. The possibility of being armed may deter some criminals, but evidently not all of them.
I'm guessing if a criminal with a gun robs another criminal with a gun, there's a substantial likelihood of the situation ending up with one less criminal, though I wouldn't guess if it's the robber or the robbee who shots first. "Think of it as evolution in action."

What would these be called? Suicide robbers?

Don't criminals at least TRY to blend in and look like "regular citizens?" Can they really tell when they're about to rob another criminal vs. an "ordinary" citizen?
 

veinglory

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So the idea is that within the space of one year the townsfolk had a huge uptick in owning weapons? Is there any data on that?
 

Hoplite

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Don't criminals at least TRY to blend in and look like "regular citizens?" Can they really tell when they're about to rob another criminal vs. an "ordinary" citizen?

Good point. I guess the only situation that the target would be a known criminal would be by gang markers.
 

nighttimer

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Well, let's just put a big ol' smiley face on the Motor City, why don't we?

What turns that smile into a frown is besides having less to steal, as the exodus from Detroit continues as the city's population drops below 700,000 there are fewer people to rob and kill.

It should be no surprise Detroit tops the Forbes list of the Most Dangerous Cities this year for the fifth year in a row. What is encouraging is the violent crime rate in the Motor City actually declined last year, despite crushing financial woes that drove Detroit into the biggest municipal bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Make no mistake: Detroit is still a very dangerous place. The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s crime database reports Detroit had 386 murders last year, up from 344 in 2011 and essentially unchanged from 2000 – when the city had 200,000 more residents. The steady outflow of residents has driven Detroit’s murder rate up to 54.6 per 100,000, more than 10 times the national average and the highest in the country among large cities. Equally troubled Stockton, Calif., fifth on this year’s Most Dangerous list, has less than half the murder rate of Detroit.


To compile the list, we start with the FBI’s Crime Statistics database, screening for cities with populations above 200,000. That eliminates cities like Flint, Mich., with its record-busting murder rate of 63 per 100,000, but allows us to focus on major American cities that presumably have full-fledged police departments.

That barely applies to Detroit, which has been forced to cut back so much that some quip they can have a pizza delivered in less time than it takes to get a police car. There are reasons for hope, however. City government, long dismissed as hopelessly inefficient and corrupt, has been put in the hands of a state-appointed emergency manager, Kevyn Orr. One of Orr’s most significant moves was to recruit former Cincinnati police chief James Craig, a Detroit native, to run the city’s demoralized and underfunded police force in July.

Craig has launched a massive restructuring, replacing commanders with captains more in touch with neighborhood concerns and ending unpopular 12-hour shifts for patrol officers.

“This new chief is picking the right people, and they’re looking for outside help,” said Andrew Arena, the retired former head of the Detroit FBI office who now runs the Detroit Crime Commission. “That has always been a problem for the Detroit Police Department in the past.”

Detroit’s problems are typical of many of the cities on this year’s list. While national crime statistics have fallen dramatically since the early 1990s – murder and violent crime rates are both down more than 50% — the rates in cities like Detroit; Oakland, Calif.; and St. Louis remain stubbornly high.

“It’s a story about segregation, integration and gentrification,” said John Roman, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and lecturer in criminology at the University of Pennsylvania.
What surprises me is how P&CE's resident defender of Truth, Justice and as Little Governmental Oversight As Possible has nothing to say about the city Detroit being run by an unelected "emergency manager" whom essentially has been empowered to make all the major decisions in Detroit turning the elected mayor into a powerless figurehead.

Apparently, some government intrusion is perfectly fine as long as it bolsters the Second Amendment. :rolleyes
 

Gregg

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I go to Detroit twice a year and spend time in the southeast village area (near the river, east of downtown) - an impoverished neighborhood, but not on the most dangerous list.
I've never felt in danger - but am always there in daylight.

Surprisingly, there is a lot of positive energy in Detroit and a lot of organizations are working very hard to improve things. Unfortunately the local government is a mess and the school system is disfunctional.
 

Alessandra Kelley

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Well, let's just put a big ol' smiley face on the Motor City, why don't we?

What turns that smile into a frown is besides having less to steal, as the exodus from Detroit continues as the city's population drops below 700,000 there are fewer people to rob and kill.

What surprises me is how P&CE's resident defender of Truth, Justice and as Little Governmental Oversight As Possible has nothing to say about the city Detroit being run by an unelected "emergency manager" whom essentially has been empowered to make all the major decisions in Detroit turning the elected mayor into a powerless figurehead.

Apparently, some government intrusion is perfectly fine as long as it bolsters the Second Amendment. :rolleyes

Oh right, of course.

I had wondered about this announcement and its timing, but it does appear that this is meant to bolster up the Michigan governor's decision last year to disenfranchise several unruly (and Democratic) urban Michigan areas and appoint Republican businessman-dictators to rule them in place of their democratically-elected, accountable governments.

So presumably this announcement is an attempt to connect the Republican nanny state leadership with law and order and lack of gun control.