Chances of my debut novel being as successful as Divergent was?

The more you assume it's luck, the lower your odds will be.

xYinxx said:

I mean, yeah, I shouldn't write to be a best-selling author, but who doesn't like that dream?

But yeah, I assume the odds of your very first novel being a best-seller are very low? Did Veronica Roth just get lucky or something?

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She wrote something that appealed to a lot of people. Timing helps, too, not to mention a movie deal. But I assume the novel was a best-seller before that.

If you can hit that combination of compelling story with wide appeal, then you, too, can be very successful.

OTOH, authors who hit it big first time out of the gate have a lot of hype to live up to, and sometimes second novels (or second series) are deemed "not as good" simply because they didn't light a fire in quite the same way. It's a lot of pressure. A slow but steady build before achieving break-out status might be preferable.

Just had all her ducks in a row and there's lots of variable with those ducks.

Timing
Luck
Quality of Manuscript (everything)
Persistence
Agent/author submission savvy
Genre strength
Correlation of books with similar success
Desirable author personality traits and platform

The list can go on and on. I strive for a "breakout" rather than a top-shelf bestseller. It takes a team effort to make a bestsellers, but a lot of readers and sales can propel an initial breakout.

tri

Divergent is actually not lucky at all, in my opinion, but a very well thought out young adult novel aimed at teens. It has genius level appeal to teens in it's very structure.

Let me explain.

The very basis of Divergent is a world where you are put through a test that decides a faction or life for your future. Firstly, teens deal with tests regularly, which makes the story immediately relatable. The test in Divergent is kind of like the SAT but more exciting obviously lol. Kids all across America relate.

Then add the fact that a lot of teens are going through an identity crisis. I mean, that's what being a teenager is, trying to figure out who you are. Most people don't figure that shit out until they are adults, if ever. Then we add the part of Divergent that appeals to this. Triss doesn't fit any faction. That's how a lot of teens probably feel about standardized testing and the future, that they don't fit anywhere because they're still deciding.

Add some action and a passionate romance arc and I think it's fairly obvious why it's such a huge success. Not luck at all but simply a deep understanding of what the average teens major life issues and questions are.

From what I've heard of Divergent, it's a very formulaic wish fulfillment fantasy for teenagers. "Hey kids, do you feel like you just don't fit into the adult world and it's roles? Why, that means you're the Chosen One!"

Not to say that's a bad thing. The right product for the right time.

Yes there was a ton of luck involved. I can absolutely guarantee you that there were books that had all of the ingredients for the same success that were written as well or better that never got out of the slushpile.

But there's nothing you can do about luck, so it's best to ignore that part. There are things to be learned from the parts that weren't luck. There is nothing to be learned from the part that was.

BethS said:

OTOH, authors who hit it big first time out of the gate have a lot of hype to live up to, and sometimes second novels (or second series) are deemed "not as good" simply because they didn't light a fire in quite the same way. It's a lot of pressure. A slow but steady build before achieving break-out status might be preferable.

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Thanks for that. I have to live a low-stress life due to personal health issues. It's always nice to dream about being 'best-selling', but now that I think about it--the pressure would probably kill me. Sadly, I mean that literally. If it didn't kill me, I'd probably be hospitalized with a surgery pending!

I like to take my time with my stories as well and make them as perfect as I can get them. (I'm OCD about writing) So if I had a contract and had to pump out 1 novel a year I'd be real upset, because I know it wouldn't be good.

Being an immediate best-seller with a debut novel really boils down to 15 minutes of fame, doesn't it? Financially, I wonder if it's all that better than a slow rise to fame? I suppose if it becomes a movie that might be a different story.

I don't believe in luck. My first jobs where in the gambling industry and all too aware that its more a case of chance and probability.

That has nothing to do with publishing though. Even a great debut novel that has every thing thrown at it (agent, editor, publicity budget . . .) and it can still fail. Concentrate on what you can control, write a great book, get an agent then a publisher who will publish it well. Then write a second great book.

tko said:

The more you assume it's luck, the lower your odds will be.

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Then again, if you don't accept that luck plays a big part, you can drive yourself crazy chasing really improbable outcomes.

Nobody can predict with certainty what the next runaway hit is going to be. Just write the best novel you can.

triceretops said:

Just had all her ducks in a row and there's lots of variable with those ducks.

Timing
Luck
Quality of Manuscript (everything)
Persistence
Agent/author submission savvy
Genre strength
Correlation of books with similar success
Desirable author personality traits and platform

The list can go on and on. I strive for a "breakout" rather than a top-shelf bestseller. It takes a team effort to make a bestsellers, but a lot of readers and sales can propel an initial breakout.

tri

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Desirable author personality traits and platform?
I don't think so.

Quality of Manuscript really is everything. The rest are excuses.

Lots of talent, a little luck, fortunate timing and a lot of hard work.

That's the key.

I would worry less about comparing yourself to someone else and just work hard at writing your own book and making it as good as it can be. That's really the key.

Focus on writing the best book you possibly can, a book that will resonate with a lot of readers. Divergent-level successes are rare, even if you do everything right. But you should control what you can control. All things equal, the better your book, the better a chance you have.

Jamesaritchie said:

Quality of Manuscript really is everything. The rest are excuses.

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Disagree. Stephanie (sp?) Meyers, E.L. James, Nicholas Sparks all prove otherwise.

Have you written it yet?
Gotten feedback from reliable betas/editors?
Submitted it to publishers or agents?

If the answer is "No" to any of the above, then the chances of matching Divergent's sales are approximately 0.

Come on now people...


How many authors will ever reach Divergent-level success? (Movie deal, best seller, sustained readership, growing readership, huge fan base following, big book deal for sequels) Only a few writers in the world will ever sniff something like this, regardless of the quality of manuscript.

Now let's look at it further and the chances that you can achieve all of this with a debut novel. Well that select group of writers just got slashed in number again.

So now let's look at what has to happen to become the next Veronica Roth or Stephanie Meyer. You have to write a great manuscript. You have to write a great query letter. You have to find the right agent who has to fall in love with it and they have to find a publisher to do the same, and then once it's published there are so many things that factor into its success.

All you really need to do is go into a library or bookstore and take a look at how many books you see that are published. Then, when you realize you have never heard of about 99% of the titles or authors, you realize how difficult it is to be a booming success.

Can you win the lottery if you never play it? Of course not. If you play it will you ever win? Not bloody likely, but there is a chance, yes. But you have a better chance of being struck by lightning. If you had asked what the chances are of being struck by lightning, I would answer, not very good. But if you walk around holding a big metal pole during a lightnight storm while hanging in a tree I would say your odds are much better now. So, by that comparison, I would encourage you to write a great manuscript and have the mindset that if Veronica Roth did it, you can too. Believe that it is possible. But good heavens don't believe that it's likely because so much of it is out of your hands.

If you were truly interested in the statistics, you could research and find out how many debut novels are published in a given year, and you could find out exactly how many of those reach the best seller list and you'll have your answer.

xYinxx said:

I mean, yeah, I shouldn't write to be a best-selling author, but who doesn't like that dream?

But yeah, I assume the odds of your very first novel being a best-seller are very low? Did Veronica Roth just get lucky or something?

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Are you sure it was her first novel (vs. the first one she sold)?

And no, it's not luck. It's about writing a really good book.

spikeman4444 said:

If you were truly interested in the statistics, you could research and find out how many debut novels are published in a given year, and you could find out exactly how many of those reach the best seller list and you'll have your answer.

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It's still not luck; it's work, talent, skill, and more work, and also, work.

Oh, great, now I have to go Google this Divergent thing to see what you're all talking about.

Myrealana said:

Have you written it yet?
Gotten feedback from reliable betas/editors?
Submitted it to publishers or agents?

If the answer is "No" to any of the above, then the chances of matching Divergent's sales are approximately 0.

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But your chances of matching Divergent's sales are approximately zero anyway, regardless of what you do.

It's impossible to calculate odds like this. To work out the probabilities you're asking about, we'd have to have a set of books all with an equal chance of success or failure.

The problem is books aren't all equal.

Most books and writers have no chance at all of ever being published by good publishers.

A few books and writers have a reasonable chance.

And a tiny proportion of books written have a good chance of hitting the best-seller lists.

Without knowing which group you fall into, we can't accurately guess what chances you have.

Since the first book was released six months after MOCKINGJAY, I'd say timing was a huge factor. But how many other YA dystopian novels came out post-Hunger Games? Probably hundreds. How many have been as financially successful as DIVERGENT? Very few, if any. So quality of writing/storytelling is also a huge factor. Other than those things, bestsellerdom is pretty hard to predict. A lot of people have said it already, but it's much easier to write the best book you can and not worry about trends. And by easier, I mean less stressful.

There's a book - Writing the Breakout Novel, by Donald Maass - that discusses why some novels hit it big. Some factors you have little control over, but a fair bit of it relies on craft and skill. It's a pretty good book; you might want to see if your local library has a copy.

Medievalist said:

It's still not luck; it's work, talent, skill, and more work, and also, work.

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And absolutely no luck? I'm sorry but I have to disagree. I think there are manuscripts and published books that are as good as, or better than Harry Potter, Twilight, Divergent, The Hunger Games, etc., that will never garner that level of success because they were never in the right place at the right time to take off. I think a great book and hard work alone are enough to get you published, even somewhat known. But we're talking about blockbuster success, and I think at that level it's hard to predict.

Writing a really good book is still the most important part of the process though.