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Toothpaste
03-02-2014, 08:12 PM
So I posted this list of tips of how to pick Oscar winners to my Facebook wall, but thought I'd share with y'all as well as I really love coming here to talk about movies and stuff. I also thought people could share their tips as well, and also who they thought might win this year. Because it's fun!!


Toothpaste's list of tips:

1. Don't pick who you WANT to win, pick who WILL win. Now there is fun to be had in choosing your favourite movie and rooting for it. But if you are more interested in winning, then strategy must come into play.

2. Do your research. Who has won at all the other awards leading up to the Oscars?

- footnote: if someone has won at the Golden Globes but hasn't won anywhere else, check to see if that someone was in a Weinstein produced film. If so, chances are that they will not be winning at the Oscars.

3. When it comes to actors, who underwent a major physical transformation for the role? Who cried a lot? Who demonstrated a lot of emotion on screen?

-footnote: for actresses, who has become a fashion It Girl?

4. Pretend you're an Academy voter and think psychology. Are there actors who you are tired of seeing nominated, or who you know will be nominated in future, so they don't need to win this year? Is there an actor who has gone unnoticed for so long and he/she finally deserves the trophy?

5. Is there a Disney animated musical or Pixar film (that isn't CARS)?

6. Is there a movie that was really popular, got tons of Oscar buzz but likely still won't win the major categories? If so, assume that one will be given a consolation award, possibly in screenwriting.

7. Special effects will likely go to a film that had some element of realism to it. So think Gravity over The Hobbit. Too much special effects makes people not notice the special effects.

8. And just for sanity sake, remember, this is all a game, all political. Sometimes films that truly deserve it win, sometimes films that had good "For Your Consideration" campaigns win. In the end, it doesn't really matter who wins so don't get too emotional (though I will say I always get extra excited for the Foreign Language and Documentary film categories - an Oscar win for those can make an unknown film into a big deal).

9. If all else fails, enjoy the dresses!

10. Oh! And if you want to avoid the stress of picking the winners, may I offer up Oscar Bingo Cards as a fun game that everyone at your party can play without having to strategise or having to have seen the movies: http://www.vanityfair.com/vf-hollywood/2014-oscar-bingo-cards

CrastersBabies
03-02-2014, 09:34 PM
I have a party to go to tonight, with a pool that one can win if they guess the most winners. Thanks for this! (plots and plans)

rhymegirl
03-02-2014, 10:17 PM
I think Toothpaste is correct with her advice.

Here are my pics for the actors and actresses:

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supp. Actor: Jared Leto
Best Supp. Actress: Lupita Nyong'o

Myrealana
03-02-2014, 11:17 PM
For the last ten years, we've had a big Oscar party. This is the first year we won't be doing it. But my virtual menu is ready to go:

Cocktails:
Captain Phillips Screwdrivers

Appetizers:
Crood-ites with dips
Grav-lax-ity with mustard and crackers

Main Dish:
Saving Mister Flanksteak
Dallas Fryers Club (Fried Chicken Strips)
American Mussels

Side Dishes:
Seven Years a Slaw
Melon DeGeneres

Desserts:
Frozen Yogurt sundaes

kuwisdelu
03-03-2014, 02:48 PM
The Wind Rises didn't win best animated picture.

There is no justice in this world.

Manuel Royal
03-03-2014, 03:47 PM
The Wind Rises didn't win best animated picture.

There is no justice in this world.And a few years ago, Ponyo wasn't even nominated. It don't make sense.

ss06470
03-03-2014, 04:05 PM
I agree. The Wind Rises was a magnificent work

J.S.F.
03-03-2014, 04:12 PM
It wasn't Miyazaki's best, not by a mile. His son directed it, the story was confusing and not very accessible by either adults or children, and that's a shame. The animation was excellent--Ghibli always does quality work--but the storyline just didn't hit home for many people. It was supposed to be Miyazaki's last hurrah, and IMO it was merely very good, not great. That's why it didn't win.

gothicangel
03-04-2014, 01:49 AM
I think Toothpaste is correct with her advice.

Here are my pics for the actors and actresses:

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supp. Actor: Jared Leto
Best Supp. Actress: Lupita Nyong'o

I hope you put a bet down on this! :)

Cath
03-04-2014, 02:28 AM
It wasn't Miyazaki's best, not by a mile. His son directed it, the story was confusing and not very accessible by either adults or children, and that's a shame. The animation was excellent--Ghibli always does quality work--but the storyline just didn't hit home for many people. It was supposed to be Miyazaki's last hurrah, and IMO it was merely very good, not great. That's why it didn't win.

Miyazaki wrote and directed The Wind Rises according to the press and IMDB. As to accessibility, I didn't find it terribly difficult, although I think there are depths I haven't found yet; it's a film that should benefit from a second viewing. But the film wasn't targeted for an American audience, which I suspect is why it didn't win the Oscar.

It wasn't his best film, but it was still deserving of an Oscar, in my opinion. Frozen was a decent film, but it left me a little cold (maybe I have an ice shard in my heart). The Wind Rises, on the other hand, left me breathless.

Snowstorm
03-04-2014, 02:46 AM
Lupita Nyong'o's acceptance speech had to have been one of my all-time faves. That young lady was so eloquent, poignant, and humble. What a winner!

Toothpaste
03-04-2014, 05:01 AM
Well I must say I did rather well. Got all the categories correct except for Original Screenplay and Feature Length Documentary (but I was very happy with what won, so that was a good consolation).

I agree about Lupita's speech. Yes what she said at the end about dreams was lovely, but it's the first time I believe a winner of a superficial award managed to honour the real seriousness behind the win, managed to address the difficult dichotomy between the glamour and joy of the awards and the story based on a real experience that was cruel and terrible that resulted in the nomination. I normally feel so awkward in those moments of acknowledgment, like it isn't the place to talk so seriously, it just makes it all seem frivolous.

In other words I thought this was brilliant:

"It doesn't escape me for one moment that so much joy in my life is thanks to so much pain in someone else's, so I want to salute the spirit of Patsey for her guidance and for Solomon, thank you for telling her story and your own."

Simple. Classy. Sincere. I'm very impressed.

CrastersBabies
03-04-2014, 05:20 AM
Lupita was truly classy.

Cate Blanchette on the other hand did not do much for me at all. She rambled on (and has been especially twatty all awards season, imho) and then tagged on some "go women" thing at the end that felt like an afterthought.

J.S.F.
03-04-2014, 06:35 AM
Miyazaki wrote and directed The Wind Rises according to the press and IMDB. As to accessibility, I didn't find it terribly difficult, although I think there are depths I haven't found yet; it's a film that should benefit from a second viewing. But the film wasn't targeted for an American audience, which I suspect is why it didn't win the Oscar.

It wasn't his best film, but it was still deserving of an Oscar, in my opinion. Frozen was a decent film, but it left me a little cold (maybe I have an ice shard in my heart). The Wind Rises, on the other hand, left me breathless.
---

Quite right on the direction and production. My bad. I thought it was his son doing things...brain fart.

I found the animation striking, but then again, Ghibli's animation has always been outstanding. I just found it cold, and the people I spoke to who'd seen it--ranging in ages from sixteen to their late fifties--didn't seem all that thrilled about it. Perhaps it was because of the subject matter; perhaps something else.

I realize that my neck of the woods (a city of around 400000 people in Osaka) may not be the best indicator of whether or not the film was 'good', but I just didn't find it to be on a par with some of Miyazaki's other works.

kuwisdelu
03-04-2014, 07:14 AM
I found the animation striking, but then again, Ghibli's animation has always been outstanding. I just found it cold, and the people I spoke to who'd seen it--ranging in ages from sixteen to their late fifties--didn't seem all that thrilled about it. Perhaps it was because of the subject matter; perhaps something else.

I liked that it was a bit of a change of pace. Both in its intended audience and in its subject matter. I can understand why others — both in Japan and in the US — would not be thrilled by the subject matter, but I loved that he made a movie about such a difficult subject, and I think it reflected his "complicated" feelings reasonably well, if with a very light hand. I suppose I could relate well to it. It's a different kind of difficult than a film like Grave of the Fireflies.


I realize that my neck of the woods (a city of around 400000 people in Osaka) may not be the best indicator of whether or not the film was 'good', but I just didn't find it to be on a par with some of Miyazaki's other works.

Oh, I'd agree on that, but I still think it was good, good enough to win at least. But then, delivering another film on par with the likes of Kaze no Tani no Nausicaš or Mononoke Hime would be quite difficult.

nighttimer
03-04-2014, 05:05 PM
Best Acceptance Speeches: Lupita Nyong'o and Jared Leto. Classy. Sincere. Thanking mom and history is always a smooth move.

Worst Acceptance Speeches: Cate Blanchett and Matthew McConaughey. Rambling. Boring. Goofy. I was okay with God getting some love from Matthew, but man, that guy is weird.

Max Vaehling
03-04-2014, 09:27 PM
I didn't place any guesses, but I'm not surprised by the outcome one bit. 12 years a Slave was such obvious Academy bait (so very dramatic and human and important) that I expected a few more for that, but apart from that, not really. And they had to give something to Dallas Buyers Club, right?

Did anybody else notice that the feel-good Oscars (for Best Movie and Best Performances, which are generally what the jury emotes to) tended to split between the slavery drama and the AIDS drama? Whereas Gravity's awards were more on the technical side, like Best Sound Editing and Best Cinematography? (With Best Director and Best Script being in the middle on this split.)

(I didn't watch 12 Years, so the Academy Bait argument is more about the buzz than the movie. I've watched the Hollywood Reporter's writers' round table (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miOLIjT25pQ), and John Ridley seemed quite sincere. So if this sounds like I'm holding a grudge for ignoring my own fave American Hustle, nope. I'm behind this for the POC quota alone. It just seemed so predictable.)

nighttimer
03-05-2014, 06:34 PM
Did anybody else notice that the feel-good Oscars (for Best Movie and Best Performances, which are generally what the jury emotes to) tended to split between the slavery drama and the AIDS drama? Whereas Gravity's awards were more on the technical side, like Best Sound Editing and Best Cinematography? (With Best Director and Best Script being in the middle on this split.)

(I didn't watch 12 Years, so the Academy Bait argument is more about the buzz than the movie. I've watched the Hollywood Reporter's writers' round table (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miOLIjT25pQ), and John Ridley seemed quite sincere. So if this sounds like I'm holding a grudge for ignoring my own fave American Hustle, nope. I'm behind this for the POC quota alone. It just seemed so predictable.)

"People of color quota?" :Huh:

You may not mean to come off as dismissively condescending, but dubbing the Oscars that came the way of the searing 12 Years A Slave as "feel good" awards, "Oscar bait" and part of a quota system certainly leaves that impression.

By your own admission you haven't seen the 2013 Best Picture. Therefore, isn't it possible 12 Years A Slave won on the merits and genuinely was the Best Picture of 2013 and not the Academy throwing a bone to those poor, oppressed Black people?

Toothpaste
03-05-2014, 08:19 PM
Oh wow, Max. So you are going to malign and be cynical about a film you haven't even seen?

There are three points I think that need to be addressed:

1. Yup, Oscars tend to go to "important" movies. Movies with messages, with sweeping emotions. For sure. No one will argue that. This is why not only does SF/Fantasy NEVER win (or very very very rarely), comedy almost is never nominated. I guess I just assume everyone understands that the Oscars are not objective. This is why I posted the above list. Choosing winners is pretty easy if you remind yourself that this is not an awards show that gives awards to the objectively best of the best. In fact, anyone who can say that there is objectively a best film is quite a suspicious character to me. I don't even know how people can compare between genres . . .


2. 12 YEARS A SLAVE is an excellent movie. I went to see it with some trepidation, with some, "Here's another movie about something awful and I'm going to learn stuff and feel miserable." But after I saw it I was SO impressed. Not only is it about something very important, it is simply a beautifully made film. It's very watchable, despite the nature of the subject matter. The performances are amazing. And the writing is fantastic. Also the cinematography is just stunning. It might sound icky to say, but it is also very well paced, never boring, harrowing when it needs to be, but also offering us moments of respite. It is a well made film. Not just an important film.

3. Taste is subjective. I saw all the Best Picture Oscar nominated films this year. For me, out of those films, AMERICAN HUSTLE was the worst. Don't get me wrong, it was still very good, I'm just saying in comparison to the others. The acting was fantastic, and I think they all deserved their nominations. But the writing wasn't nearly as clever as it thought it was. I know people thought WOLF went long, but AMERICAN HUSTLE was the only film that I checked the time in. I thought it wasn't well paced at all. So for me, AMERICAN HUSTLE not winning any awards wasn't an issue of films with some humour (even though it really wasn't THAT funny) not winning awards. After all last year SILVER LININGS got a lot of accolades so it's clear people like David O'Russell. It was a matter of there being better films this year. And 12 YEARS A SLAVE, in my opinion was a better film. It might not be yours, and that's cool. But if I can think that, then others can think that.


At any rate, maybe you should see the films you deride before deriding them. Before dismissing them. Oh and DALLAS BUYERS CLUB? Fantastic as well. This was another film I was worried about and of all the best picture nominated movies, this one surprised me the most. I really enjoyed it.

CrastersBabies
03-05-2014, 08:27 PM
I'm sorry, but American Hustle was nowhere near movies like "12 Years a Slave" or "Gravity" or "Her" (and the list goes on). While the acting in the film was truly stellar--by everyone, not just the nominated--the story didn't even begin to capture me until 1/3 of the way in. Long-winded. Grossly underwritten. I was baffled as to why it was nominated.

But, that's just me.

Toothpaste
03-05-2014, 08:33 PM
I'm sorry, but American Hustle was nowhere near movies like "12 Years a Slave" or "Gravity" or "Her" (and the list goes on). While the acting in the film was truly stellar--by everyone, not just the nominated--the story didn't even begin to capture me until 1/3 of the way in. Long-winded. Grossly underwritten. I was baffled as to why it was nominated.

But, that's just me.

1. Jeremy Renner was my favourite thing about that movie, I think people didn't notice him because once again a more subtle performance isn't as "impressive". I thought he was fantastic!

2. Clearly from my rather long post above, it wasn't just you. :)

TheNighSwan
03-06-2014, 07:29 AM
Actually, comedies have won "best picture" many times in the past, that is, before the mid-late 70s when the academy began to take itself much too seriously — while still staying largely Hollywood-centric; you will never see a true independent or foreign art-house film win best picture (well perhaps you will someday, but not before at least a couple of generations have passed by).

Max Vaehling
03-08-2014, 02:58 AM
Heh.
I threw the 'I haven't seen it' paragraph in to point out that I'm not dismissing 12 Years at all. Obviously I achieved the opposite, among other things by throwing the term 'POC quota' at already-pissed off readers - which I tried to point out as a good thing, that this one movie got three POC major awards this year, and maybe I should have said 'ratio' but maybe that wouldn't have helped at that point either. Wasn't meant condescending or cynical at all. If it came across like that, I can't help it.

I maintain that some genres are more inclined to be Oscar bait than others - not by design, I'm not that cynical, but the academy seems to fall for those dramas like catnip. I don't, I'm more of an escapist when it comes to movies. (I got my own catnip right there.) And that there are awards that are more about how a movie makes you feel as an audience and awards that are more about technical aspects. Acting is a very direct, subjective thing. and that's good acting to begin with. Bad acting? You feel nothing. Well, maybe ennui.

As for American Hustle - I agree that some of the plot dragged on a bit, btw, and wouldn't have given it a script award myself; maybe one for the costumes, especially the wigs -, I pointed out in another venue that Gravity was actually a better movie, but American Hustle was the one I liked best. I didn't expect it to win anything, not because it was bad by any means but because it seemed to achieve its qualities so effortlessly and casually. That's easy to overlook, especially when it's competing against so many big dramatic things. (Also, Jennifer Lawrence again? Does seem a bit too much, probably even for Jennifer Lawrence herself.)

rhymegirl
03-09-2014, 01:59 AM
I hope you put a bet down on this! :)

I wish I had! We did vote at home. Out of 24 categories I got 17 right.