Is becoming a best seller really lucky based?

It's not luck.

It's writing a compelling, marketable work that is also unique.

It's writing a great query letter and getting picked up by a really good agent, who then gets you to a good publisher.

Luck isn't really involved.

Well, there's a bit of luck involved. Luck meaning the agent hasn't just signed a similar book; luck that the publisher hasn't filled their slots for that season; luck that enough readers find your book. But yeah, you have to have a good story and a good agent and a good publisher. After that, it's up to the readers.

I'd rather look at it as timing, not luck. If you write a great book, you've got a chance it will be a bestseller. But it can also be down to good timing. If your book lands at the right agent at the right time, then you're on your way. If it then goes to the right publisher at the right time, you're further along. If your book is published at the right time, just when whatever you've written is hot, then your sales will soar and you'll have that huge bestseller on your hands.

Timing is ... everything.

I'd say there's quite a bit of luck involved.

I've read a number of compelling, well-written, seemingly marketable books that I found forgotten in the bargain bin or on the back shelf of the library.

You can write the fabled "Great American Novel" and never get published.

The first step to becoming best selling author is to write that compelling book, find an agent, get it published. Without that, there is no step two.

Then, sometimes, some people get to Step 2: A Miracle Occurs.

A bit of luck, a bit of timing, a bit of being able to lead a sentiment, a bit of being decipherable.

This is from Nassim Taleb's The Black swan:

"...we live in a world with an increasing number of feedback loops, causing events to be the cause of more events; people bought a book because other people bought it. Generating snowballs and arbitrary and unpredictable planet-wide winner takes all effects."


A networked world promotes this. So yes skill and a great story, but the initial nudge (who reads it, where and when? And a number of unknown unknowns) is probably very important.
After all there are a number of mega books by say Dan Brown, or James Patterson and other authors that some argue are not great literature.

Xelebes said:

A bit of luck, a bit of timing, a bit of being able to lead a sentiment, a bit of being decipherable.

Click to expand...

I would also add sheer bloody stubborn-mindedness too.

gothicangel said:

I would also add sheer bloody stubborn-mindedness too.

Click to expand...

I would actually say that is a detriment with many things. Stubborn-mindedness only works for honing your craft, not for the actual selling.

I wouldn't say "luck based." I'd say sweat-based.

Then comes the bit of luck.

Seconded. Luck doesn't matter if you haven't sweated, as well.

Xelebes said:

I would actually say that is a detriment with many things. Stubborn-mindedness only works for honing your craft, not for the actual selling.

Click to expand...

I disagree, I think there is an element of stubbornness required in the face of rejection.

Brigid Barry said:

It's not luck.

It's writing a compelling, marketable work that is also unique.

It's writing a great query letter and getting picked up by a really good agent, who then gets you to a good publisher.

Luck isn't really involved.

Click to expand...

But many writers do all those things and still don't become bestsellers. If the X-factor isn't luck, what is it?

I think luck is a huge part of it. If there were a real logic behind it, publishers and agents would've figured it out, and no book that goes on to be a bestseller would garner rejections, nor would publishers ever put out a book that flops.

Well, there are plenty of great, wonderfully written books that don't even sell out their first printing, and there are some "meh" books (in my opinion anyway--obviously I can't speak for everyone) that become bestsellers. Is this luck? I guess it depends on how you define it.

Certainly things like timing will play a role in this sort of thing, even with respect to getting published at all, such as finding the right agent and publisher at a time when he or she is likely to be receptive to what you've written. The publishing world is changing rapidly. So your agent and publisher getting what you've written out there at a time and in a format that's likely to appeal to the rapidly changing and often unpredictable tastes of the public will play a role too.

But they don't have crystal balls. As the previous poster said, if there was some set path to writing a good novel that appeals to a wide subset of the reading public and that has the potential to catch their eye, well, then books would never flop and you would never hear stories about novels that are rejected by huge numbers of agents and or editors (or maybe even all of them) that become bestsellers or self-published phenomena.

But I think it would be rare to write something, whether it's good or meh, and to have it just be randomly "discovered" without some pretty aggressive promotion and marketing on the part of the author (and his or her agents and publisher if applicable).

Timing...luck...marketability...

Honestly, I think "lack of bad luck" is as important as good luck.

I know a Simon & Schuster author who routinely hits the bestseller list with ease, who missed with her latest book, almost certainly because S&S and B&N were feuding and B&N massively cut back their orders of S&S books, right when hers was due to be released. You hear all kinds of stories about this sort of thing--books released when world events suddenly make them timely OR in terribly poor taste, books mentioned by someone famous that become best-sellers overnight.

There is absolutely no controlling for some factors. You write your book, you do your best.

If plain ole shamrock luck has anything to do with it, I'm screwed, may as well give up. So, I prefer not to believe in luck and to see it as a combination of hard work and timing.

Myrealana said:

I'd say there's quite a bit of luck involved.

I've read a number of compelling, well-written, seemingly marketable books that I found forgotten in the bargain bin or on the back shelf of the library.

You can write the fabled "Great American Novel" and never get published.

The first step to becoming best selling author is to write that compelling book, find an agent, get it published. Without that, there is no step two.

Then, sometimes, some people get to Step 2: A Miracle Occurs.

Click to expand...

I thought Step 2 was Write Your Next (Compelling, and MAINSTREAM, because genre books rarely become bestsellers) Book, find an agent, get it published. Repeat for maybe 100 steps, and you'll have a very good chance of having a bestseller.

RedWombat said:

Timing...luck...marketability...

Honestly, I think "lack of bad luck" is as important as good luck.

I know a Simon & Schuster author who routinely hits the bestseller list with ease, who missed with her latest book, almost certainly because S&S and B&N were feuding and B&N massively cut back their orders of S&S books, right when hers was due to be released. You hear all kinds of stories about this sort of thing--books released when world events suddenly make them timely OR in terribly poor taste, books mentioned by someone famous that become best-sellers overnight.

There is absolutely no controlling for some factors. You write your book, you do your best.

Click to expand...

I heard about that thing too, and I had to a just-published S&S book at B&N on the day of its publication, because B&N didn't put it out on the "new selections" shelf. I wonder if there's been one or more lawsuits about that.

But that's why you're supposed to write and publish your next book, so by the day it comes out the Big Three or Big Two will have their differences sorted out (or merged) and your shiny new book will be on the shelf waiting for people to gobble it up and amaze the industry about how fast it sells, and start the presses for the second print run.

Four words:

Fifty. Shades. Of. Grey.

Clearly brilliant writing does not necessarily equate to a place on the best sellers list.

Likewise there are plenty of books that are literary fiction that critics rave about, but that don't appeal to more than a tiny fraction of readers and will never be best sellers.

You may very well write a brilliant novel with three dimensional characters and an original plot. But if it's about the homoerotic love between Napoleon and an alien named Ralph who has come to Earth to rid the world of all strawberries... well, no matter how well written it may be it probably won't find an audience.

The fact is that quality does not always equal popularity. You might write a vampire or zombie book at a time when the market is flooded with them and just get lost. Your book may only appeal to a limited audience.

The only thing you can control is the quality of your product and, maybe to a degree, how it is marketed. To become a best seller involves other factors you simply have no control over.

Timing is luck. I've never heard a story of someone successfully playing the market, so if you don't control the timing, how is it not luck if you get it right?



It's not that luck is the only factor, but it is a big one; even if it affects things in a bunch of small ways, those effects add up.

Liosse de Velishaf said:

Timing is luck.

Click to expand...

I don't agree. But then, maybe your understanding of timing and mine are different. For me, timing can be forced by researching to better our chances of right time, right place. Look at all the people hoping on the New Adult Romance trend. Luck is just random chance.

Alitriona said:

I don't agree. But then, maybe your understanding of timing and mine are different. For me, timing can be forced by researching to better our chances of right time, right place. Look at all the people hoping on the New Adult Romance trend. Luck is just random chance.

Click to expand...

Timing is extremely hard to force. Trend chasing rarely gets you anywhere. As far as NA romance goes, many of these books were written before NA became a serious trend.

I do think it would be interesting to explore the issue for specific books. Look at what's on the best-seller list, when it was written, when it got published, etc. Anyone have some stats?

This article for example, suggests the timing was not "forced". If timing could be forced, everybody would be writing best-sellers.




As an aside, I remember when I first started pushing New Adult on AW a few years ago, and everyone told me it would never sell and nobody liked to read that crap. This would be so much better if I'd actually gotten around to putting some drafts together. Then maybe I could be "forcing" the timing...

Liosse de Velishaf said:

Timing is extremely hard to force. Trend chasing rarely gets you anywhere. As far as NA romance goes, many of these books were written before NA became a serious trend.

Click to expand...

Look up Strings. It the first one I can think off hand that made use of timing, not luck. Although it's erotica, not NA. It made 10,000 in the first couple of weeks according to the author and continued to sell 100 copies a day, hitting top 100 on Amazon. Dashed off to catch the trend and self-published straight away. I don't know how much it's made before the author caused a stir by admitting she sold out to cash in on a trend. Maybe not millions but a nice little paycheck. You can bet it's not the only one.

I think it also has to do with how many risks the work takes. If it's an unusual story, a one of a kind, or a one of a very very few, a lot of people won't take the chance in buying because it's unfamiliar. That's why movie studios keep churning out superhero movies, because it's a guaranteed for the time being way of making a lot of money. On the other hand! If it's something unusual but excellent it might garner attention because it's refreshing at a time when everyone is just so (expletive) sick of (fill in the genre/story line).

Alitriona said:

Look up Strings. It the first one I can think off hand that made use of timing, not luck. Although it's erotica, not NA. It made 10,000 in the first couple of weeks according to the author and continued to sell 100 copies a day, hitting top 100 on Amazon. Dashed off to catch the trend and self-published straight away. I don't know how much it's made before the author caused a stir by admitting she sold out to cash in on a trend. Maybe not millions but a nice little paycheck. You can bet it's not the only one.

Click to expand...

Is that the, er... "Hard Rock Harlots" Strings?

jvc said:

I'd rather look at it as timing, not luck. If you write a great book, you've got a chance it will be a bestseller. But it can also be down to good timing. If your book lands at the right agent at the right time, then you're on your way. If it then goes to the right publisher at the right time, you're further along. If your book is published at the right time, just when whatever you've written is hot, then your sales will soar and you'll have that huge bestseller on your hands.

Timing is ... everything.

Click to expand...

ti-ming n. Luck.

Blacbird's Unabridge Dictionary,, 2013 ed.


Now, to be eligible for that synonymy to work, you do need to have produced a work that is "good enough". So there's a base-level to be achieved, which most people, including me, never get to.

So, you write the best you can, aspire to reach that base level, and let the literary child off into the vast reaches of literary space. Once in a while, somebody joins up with a star and explodes in a supernova (Stephanie Meyer, as just one example).

Don't plan on that happening. Just hope you've done well enough to get accepted for publication. After that . . .





caw