The argument that regulation distorts the economy and thereby slows economic growth has been around a while, but now it's been backed up with some serious analysis. The results?
And it's not just a few regulations.
One of the things the researchers did was construct an index of federal regulations by tracking the growth in the number of pages in the Code of Federal Regulations since 1949. The number of pages, they note, has increased six-fold from 19,335 in 1949 to 134,261 in 2005. (As of 2011, the number of pages had risen to 169,301.)
So how do they come up with such a massive cumulative impact?
It's probably worthwhile to compare and contrast the growth rates of relatively unregulated fields like computers and communications to fields such as medicine and education for further edification.
So how does the continual throttling of growth stack up against the raw costs of regulatory compliance?
Oh, and before trotting out the usual arguments, it's worth making note of this. There's much more information in the article buttressing this statement, based on the OMB's own analysis.
As the economy continues to stagnate, it's worth noting that not only does a rising tide lift all boats, but a leaky boat will eventually drown all occupants.
Bottom Line:
Wha? How can a few regulations have such an impact? Raise enough barriers to entry, and new competition for the tried and true never makes it to market. Just as growth is compounded, so is stagnation. Knock 2 percentage points off growth for a few decades, and soon you're talking real impact.The growth of federal regulations over the past six decades has cut U.S. economic growth by an average of 2 percentage points per year, according to a new study in the Journal of Economic Growth. As a result, the average American household receives about $277,000 less annually than it would have gotten in the absence of six decades of accumulated regulations—a median household income of $330,000 instead of the $53,000 we get now.
...
Annual output in 2005, they conclude, "is 28 percent of what it would have been had regulation remained at its 1949 level." The proliferation of federal regulations especially affects the rate of improvement in total factor productivity, a measure of technological dynamism and increasing efficiency.
And it's not just a few regulations.
One of the things the researchers did was construct an index of federal regulations by tracking the growth in the number of pages in the Code of Federal Regulations since 1949. The number of pages, they note, has increased six-fold from 19,335 in 1949 to 134,261 in 2005. (As of 2011, the number of pages had risen to 169,301.)
So how do they come up with such a massive cumulative impact?
I dunno about you, but a quarter-million dollar hit on my income seems a high price to pay to keep people from drinking raw milk and smoking marijuana, while protecting the makers of Stelara and Roundup.They devise a pretty standard endogenous growth theory model and then insert their regulatory burden index to calculate how federal regulations have affected economic growth.
It's probably worthwhile to compare and contrast the growth rates of relatively unregulated fields like computers and communications to fields such as medicine and education for further edification.
So how does the continual throttling of growth stack up against the raw costs of regulatory compliance?
All this means that the opportunity costs of regulation—that is, the benefits that could have been gained if an alternative course of action had been pursued—are much higher than the costs of compliance. For example, the Competitive Enterprise Institute's report Ten Thousand Commandments 2013 estimates that it costs consumers and businesses approximately $1.8 trillion—about 11 percent of current GDP—to comply with current federal regulations. That's bad enough, but it pales in comparison to the loss of tens of trillions in overall wealth calculated by Dawson and Seater.
Oh, and before trotting out the usual arguments, it's worth making note of this. There's much more information in the article buttressing this statement, based on the OMB's own analysis.
Defenders of regulation will argue that regulations also provide benefits to Americans: lower levels of air pollution, higher minimum wages, and so forth. But the measure devised by Dawson and Seater accounts for both the aggregate benefits and the costs of the regulations.
As the economy continues to stagnate, it's worth noting that not only does a rising tide lift all boats, but a leaky boat will eventually drown all occupants.
Bottom Line:
Whatever the benefits of regulation, an average household income of $330,000 per year would buy a lot in the way of health care, schooling, art, housing, environmental protection, and other amenities.