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The SCOTUS ruling on California's Prop 8 is expected to come this week, perhaps as early as Monday morning. Kind of a big deal, imo.
In the related but separate case, I think they will find DOMA to be unconstitutional. The crux of the plaintiff's case is that she, because she had a legal same sex spouse, had to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to the IRS which an opposite gender spouse would not have been required to pay.
This takes it out of the realm of morality and into the realm of fairness about money, something everyone takes very seriously. It also does not address the constitutionality of state anti marriage laws, only whether the federal government can accept one form of marriage and deny another when it comes to benefits and legal recognition. This seems a pretty clear violation of the 14th amendment, equal protection under the law. I wouldn't be surprised to see this as a 6-3 decision.
Prop 8 is trickier, because it addresses the constitutionality of state anti gay marriage laws. I think they will duck this one, because they don't want to rule on such a broad issue -- not yet, at least.
So I think they will take the easy way out and declare the plaintiffs (Prop 8 supporters) have no standing, and therefore will not rule. This will have the effect of upholding the lower court's ruling that Prop 8 is unconstitutional without having to affirmatively state it.
So gay marriage will be legal in California, but there will be no effect on laws banning gay marriage in other states.
5-4 on this one.
The NYT has a neat summery of the options:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rt-could-rule-on-same-sex-marriage.html?_r=1&
In the related but separate case, I think they will find DOMA to be unconstitutional. The crux of the plaintiff's case is that she, because she had a legal same sex spouse, had to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to the IRS which an opposite gender spouse would not have been required to pay.
This takes it out of the realm of morality and into the realm of fairness about money, something everyone takes very seriously. It also does not address the constitutionality of state anti marriage laws, only whether the federal government can accept one form of marriage and deny another when it comes to benefits and legal recognition. This seems a pretty clear violation of the 14th amendment, equal protection under the law. I wouldn't be surprised to see this as a 6-3 decision.
Prop 8 is trickier, because it addresses the constitutionality of state anti gay marriage laws. I think they will duck this one, because they don't want to rule on such a broad issue -- not yet, at least.
So I think they will take the easy way out and declare the plaintiffs (Prop 8 supporters) have no standing, and therefore will not rule. This will have the effect of upholding the lower court's ruling that Prop 8 is unconstitutional without having to affirmatively state it.
So gay marriage will be legal in California, but there will be no effect on laws banning gay marriage in other states.
5-4 on this one.
The NYT has a neat summery of the options:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...rt-could-rule-on-same-sex-marriage.html?_r=1&