Seems, madam! nay it is; I know not 'seems.'
'Tis not alone my inky cloak, good mother,
Nor customary suits of solemn black,
Nor windy suspiration of forced breath,
No, nor the fruitful river in the eye,
Nor the dejected 'havior of the visage,
Together with all forms, moods, shapes of grief,
That can denote me truly: these indeed seem,
For they are actions that a man might play:
But I have that within which passeth show;
These but the trappings and the suits of woe.
Still an important distinction, and one that is often useful for storytelling.
That's the problem for me and others in my critique group whenever these things come up. Why would a narrator even report something they aren't certain about? What purpose would it serve?
Well, if you're writing a book in which the motives or thoughts or veracity of other characters are supposed to be ambiguous at certain points, in order to create suspense. It would be hard to write a detective story in which everyone's always certain about stuff. "He seemed to be sincere, but I still wasn't sure if I could trust him."
Or, alternatively, if you wanted to comment specifically and perhaps metaphorically on the appearance of something or someone. "He appeared to have cut his own hair, possibly while wearing boxing gloves."
Just know that some readers have a problem with reading passive voice.
For me, as a reader, I like a more active voice and a commanding narrator, someone who can observe and report their point of view without questioning themselves or others around them.
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In passing, I'm not sure you're clear on the meaning of 'passive voice'. "He seemed to be drunk" is active, not passive.
She seemed upset.
Really? Is she crying? Is she showing any physical signs that something is bothering her? Did she throw a dish towel in the sink and cross her arms exclaiming, "Wait until your father gets home!" To me, that would indicate that she's upset and the narrator never had to tell me. Again, it might just be a preference thing.
I agree with this - that would be, to my mind, bad writing. The signs of being upset are not so complex to describe, and baldly stating it like that feels flat and colourless. But then that would go for the non-filtered "She was upset" version as well.
As you say, context is everything, and I will only ever criticise the use of words like these if they aren't appropriate in context. I remain staunchly against blacklisting words, phrases, parts of speech, voices, or letters of the alphabet!