What are the odds?

I truly don't believe it's a numbers game. I will not become the next JK Rowling because I am not that talented a storyteller. I don't know if you could be, but if you do have whatever spark it takes, then it isn't a lottery. It's a cascade of events that combines talent, hard work, and dumb luck in unpredictable ways.

Sarah Madara said:

It's a cascade of events that combines talent, hard work, and dumb luck in unpredictable ways.

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Oh, I like that, and I think you're right.

There might be odds, but they don't matter. This is why: http://ididntchoosethis.blogspot.ca/2010/01/its-not-about-odds.html

Shadow_Ferret said:

What are the odds of our success?

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Very small, but people still buy lottery tickets, sometimes with their last dollar.

I'm not sure all of us even desire to make the metaphorical big league. I'm pretty sure I don't. The sheer number of names of traditionally published authors writing for ten years or more whose work is (at least occasionally) studied and discussed that I learn in a day seems to suggest that you don't have to be a household name to be read.

In baseball, it would seem, you have to be higher up on the food chain to register in that particular world than the equivalent in writing.

Odds pretty much assume that there's a level playing field. In writing, there's not.

If you write a kick ass book (really and not just according to you, your mother, and your friends), your odds are higher.

If you write a kick ass book and have extensively researched the industry, they're even higher.

If you write a kick ass book, extensively research the industry, and present a shining query letter to meticulously targeted agents, they're higher still.

If you write a kick ass book, extensively research the industry, present a shining query letter to meticulously targeted agents, and are working on the next (and the next and the next) book with the same energy and dedication, your odds are highest yet.

Shadow_Ferret said:

To use baseball as an analogy (simply because I already have those numbers) there are 2.6 million kids in little league. *As they move on, only 500,000 make it to high school varsity. Of that, only 35,000 make it to the college level. The minor leagues only have 5,400 players hoping to make the big leagues and of that, only 18% make it. There are only 750 major league baseball Players. *(Math isn't my strong suit, what's the percentage of little leaguers making the big time?)

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My problem with these number is that they assume that 2.6 million kids seriously focused on becoming major league players, which is utter nonsense. *I* played Little League, but I never once entertained the notion of playing in the big leagues.

2.6 million kids do not try out for high school ball. Half a million do not attempt to get onto college teams. There's probably a larger fraction of college ball players who try to make the leap, but that's because that's the first level where you've narrowed to a reasonably large percentage of players who even *might* have the desire, talent, and drive to go further. A large percentage, though, even if they think it would be cool to go further, won't even try because they want more fiscally stable futures.

This is true in writing too. A LOT of people attempt to write a book. A fair percentage succeed. Only a tiny fraction of these are of high enough quality AND potential salability to be picked up by a mainstream publisher. Of those writers that persist long enough to reach that point, only a fraction are going to write a second book, and a smaller fraction still will make a career from writing fiction.

It's not about odds, though, even if you reduce it to numbers and percentages. It's about talent, hard work, persistence, and luck.

Yeah, that's the problem with trying to run the numbers (though it's fun): This isn't a lottery.

Your Baseball scenario odds are about .03%

I think in fiction writing about .1-.5% of people who start out with the intent of making a living actually make that goal.

You cannot dodge the odds entirely, but you can stack them in your favour. Simply being here and involved probably multiplies your odds, taking classes, reading how-to books, finding competent writing groups, practising, etc. can probably put you up to 1:20 - 1:10.

Now, making the 'big leagues' that has more to do with luck than anything else I think. Having the right talents and the right idea at the right time, and running in to the right people who can help at the right moment in the process.

I think the numbers would be hard to figure in writing because my long life of watching/listening to people on the topic has told me 90% (? I'm guessing) of the people who say "I want to be a writer" or "I just quit my job to become a full-time novelist!" never actually complete a whole novel draft. I'm not sure if I would count those people, though...should we? I'd rather count people who actually draft, rewrite, and market a novel. I read an agent saying that she rejects over 80% of queries. 20% she requests partials on. 95% of those, she doesn't even want a full. And then of course there are fulls she doesn't take (no percentage offered) and novels she can't sell. Just to have something to multiply, let's guess she takes on 40% of the fulls to represent and sells 80% of the novels she represents. That's .2 x .95 x .4 x .6 = .06, or 6 of every 10,000, right? Of course, there are other agents who will take on what she rejected, so the chances aren't quite that awful, and some people sell directly to a publisher. I'll ignore epubbing and other modern methods. But I still doubt that 10% of novelists sell a single novel. I bet that at least half of really good novelists don't sell their first really good novel.

Of course, a first novel can be bought but orphaned, have lousy PR, not earn out, and selling a second novel ends up no easier than selling the first. There's an awful lot of luck, at every step. I read a novel last year about which I thought, wow, this sh/could have won the Pulitzer. But between goodreads and amazon, there are only something like 30 reviews of it! Poor schmuck, writing such a solid novel, probably will have to change his name to sell his second, if he isn't so depressed by the tepid reaction to the first that he quits the industry. I'm betting that for every one millionaire novelist, there are a hundred of this guy.

And that's just talking about average novels, your basic 10-15K advance, maybe earning out, maybe not. How many of those people go on to make money like JK or Steve? We could list them all before the day is out...and it'd be a darned short list.

I agree with rainsmom. The odds are different for each of us, depending on the strength of our storytelling.

lorna_w said:

I'd rather count people who actually draft, rewrite, and market a novel. I read an agent saying that she rejects over 80% of queries. 20% she requests partials on. 95% of those, she doesn't even want a full. And then of course there are fulls she doesn't take (no percentage offered) and novels she can't sell. Just to have something to multiply, let's guess she takes on 40% of the fulls to represent and sells 80% of the novels she represents. That's .2 x .95 x .4 x .6 = .06, or 6 of every 10,000, right? Of course, there are other agents who will take on what she rejected, so the chances aren't quite that awful, and some people sell directly to a publisher. I'll ignore epubbing and other modern methods. But I still doubt that 10% of novelists sell a single novel. I bet that at least half of really good novelists don't sell their first really good novel.

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The problem with this math is that it assumes that everyone who gets a novel to the querying stage has a roughly equal likelihood of getting it picked up. That is patently not true. I've heard agents say they can dismiss a full 90% of the slush immediately. Some of those may be simply mistargeted, but an awful lot of them are not of publishable quality, no matter what their authors think.

If you are a really good novelist querying a really good novel, you are NOT competing against the 90%. Or, likely, even the 98%. Your "odds," instead, depend on the salability of that novel and how well you target and query agents. A really good novelist who queries a really good, SALABLE novel to the properly targeted agents has really, really, really good odds no matter how large the initial pool.

Shadow Ferrett, II've often wondered the same thing. I'm not curious about how many writers become best-selling superstars but I do wonder how many of us make a living at the job.

If you write fiction, as I do, and you want to know the odds, you start at the beginning. How many would-be writers ever finish their story or novel? We'll never know, no one keeps stats on dreams, but I'll bet we lose fifty percent or more of the wannabes at the starting line.

Of those who finish a project, how many put their manuscript in a drawer and forget about it? Or decide it sucks and forget about it? Or, for whatever reason, never give send it out?

Of the group who send their work out, what percentage give up on their story after one rejection? After a hundred rejections? I know of several writers who tried and failed and went away. I'll bet you do, too.

Let's say 20% remain in the game. (Is that high? Low?) They keep pressing on, writing novel after novel -- and then they find an agent. When I first signed with my agent, I thought I'd won the race. I was wrong. She told me that she found a home for less than fifty percent of her manuscripts from new writers. I had the impression it was much less than fifty percent but she didn't care to share more.

So the crowd of would-be professional writers grows a little smaller.

But let's say your agent finds a publisher, the publisher offers a $5K advance -- which might sound low but I think is in the ballpark -- and your novel ends up at the local bookstore. I've read over 70% of first time writers don't earn back their advance. If that's true, how many of those writers never receive a second contract? Or decide they can do better, financially-speaking, working at the local car wash?

If there are 42,000 writers at this site, I wonder if even 2% of them (840 of us) are making solid, mid-income livings at the job.

Well, in my eyes, and in the seven years that I've been on these boards, I'd say I've seen the rise of many (dozens) of writers rise from obscurity and become brand-name authors. And I do have some high expectations. Many, many of those authors are now full time professionals and writing series that started off with their first book sale. I can't give you numbers or percentages, only that I'm certainly encouraged by what I've seen and learned from their success.

tri--hoping to join their ranks before the great editor in the sky takes me.

rainsmom said:

I've heard agents say they can dismiss a full 90% of the slush immediately.

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You're right, of course. (Though I've seen some utter crap get published, so bad writing is no absolute guarantee of failure, either)

But I still don't think the chances of selling a good novel are "good." I'm an old fart, and I've been in writing groups looking at good novels since at least 1980, and a majority of the good novels I read as a beta or group member never got published. (Maybe I'm the jinx! eeek!) It's only anecdotal evidence, I know, but more than 30 years of seeing it, in four different states, and now on-line, and I get convinced anyway.

As a former mag. editor, I'd not say 90% of what I saw was crap; something less than that but more than 50%. The problem with "good enough writing but" was usually lack of originality; we were looking for something really new and different. In, say, category romance novels, they aren't looking for anything really new or different (indeed, it's unwanted); competence, adherence to form and a modicum of luck and perseverance should get you publication there eventually. In fact, in any of the defined/clear genres, your chances of publication improve. But if we're talking literary/mainstream, chances of ever seeing even one book published, no matter how many you write, are, I think, less than 50%. And chances of being a millionaire? Let's see. John Irving. Nicholas Sparks (though he's really a romance writer). Ken Follett (counts as mainstream for me since he does both thriller and historical). Those are the only three I can name/find with brief searching. Much of their income is from sales to TV/movies.

100,000 English-Language novels are published every year. How many of those authors are millionaires from writing? 100? 200? Not good chances.

It's not entirely random.

If we just look at the size of the slush pile compared with the number of books that get published, then sure the chances seem to be very long.

The odds of getting published improve dramatically if you work hard, polish your style, do your research and keep on trying. I'd even go so far as to say that any reasonably literate person ought to be able to get into print eventually, provided that they work hard enough. That's putting you well ahead of the rest of the hopefuls in the slush pile.

After that it gets trickier. The odds of making a living from writing are harder to call. You not only need to be able to write well, you need to be able to write saleably well. There's an element of luck involved in that.

The odds of making it very rich from writing? I'd say that needs a huge slice of luck. The writers who make mega bucks often aren't the best writers. They are the ones whose work manages to catch the zeitgeist. Right place at the right time. Find a market and then exploit it mercilessly.

Of course the reason why Han Solo said "never tell me the odds" is that there is a much better question to ask. "How can I tip the odds to be more in my favour?" That's the question we should be asking ourselves.

I'm with Han. I'll skip down to the bottom and leave it at that haha.

There are no odds. Luck may help here and there, but no one needs luck to succeed as a writer.

The only way odds come into play at all is if you consider whether or not you were born with the required intelligence and talent. From my experience, most who try write have enough of both.

After this, odds have a different means. What are the "odds" that you have a strong enough work ethic? What are the "odds" that you don't commit truly silly self-sabotage in any one of a dozen ways? What are the "odds" that you not only write as much and as often as you should, but read as much and as often as you should? What are the "odds" that you treat writing the same as you would any other start up business, put in the same study time, the same hours, and take the same professional approach?

Obviously. some people in any field will fail because they lack the basic talent and intelligence needed, but in any field, including writing, most people fail not because of odds, but because they don't work long enough, hard enough, and smart enough.

Thinking about odds or luck is just another form of self-sabotage.

And, no, there is no luck in being able to write salable material.