French Presidential election, first round

Update, with details, Hollande and Sarkozy in what amounts to a virtual tie, with LePen a strong third:

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_new...h-vote-far-rights-le-pen-gets-20-percent?lite

caw

Alessandra Kelley said:

I am an ignorant American, so I am asking, what does this mean? How much influence does France have on the rest of Europe?

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France is the second most important country in the EU, but the fiasco in the eurozone means it's now a long way behind Germany.

Alessandra Kelley said:

Hollande is a Socialist -- does this mean, if he wins the runoff next month, more government support of the French people, or am I being naïve?

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He's soft left, so I wouldn't think there'd be too much change. There's not much economic room for manoeuvre right now. What might change is the suicidal eurozone economics. Mercozy have been very close, and were ideological allies.

Alessandra Kelley said:

What does this mean for Sarkozy? I can't recall the last French President to last only a single term.

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My guess is a victory for Hollande -- and that's what polls have been showing -- but it should be close. Most of the far left votes will go to Hollande, and half the fascists will go to Sarcozy. It should be enough to see Hollande through.

Alessandra Kelley said:

How important is this?

Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate, got 20% of the vote, more than expected. Is this something to be concerned about?

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Fascists getting 20% of an election is always a concern, but the FN has been a canker for many years without seriously looking like getting in power.

Interesting thread - thanks.

Here's a link from algezerawhatever which highlights some issues where candidates stands.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2012/04/20124127484266151.html

The BBC has opinion polls suggesting Hollande will beat Sarcozy 54% to 46% in the Presidential run-off.

I think a lot of the news has been too quick to call it for Hollande on the second round.

Le Pen's 20% will largely go for Sarkozy, while the 12% of leftist votes will go for Hollande. If Sarkozy can manage to scrape up the loyalty of Le Pen's voters by continuing to babble on about his hard stances on immigration, he could take the race.

Le Pen's numbers just injected some life back into Sarkozy's campaign. Unless all of the National Front voters stay home (there is talk that a lot of them will abstain, depending on how the debate/debates go) there's no reason to think it won't be very close.

My two cent after sitting in front of the TV all day

Priene said:

What might change is the suicidal eurozone economics.

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I certainly hope so. Hollande being a socialist, I reckon the "Cut, cut, cut!" solutions to the crisis will be mitigated a bit.

Our government has fallen too, elections will probably be held in October. What happens in France will certainly influence the debate overhere aswell.

Interesting times...

Welp, Sarkozy lost. First incumbent in 33 years, I think it was, to lose re-election.

Lots of honking in my street right now.

All the blokes in our tiny village (including my husband) are up at the bar.

I wasn't invited

Sarko's speech seemed to move his supporters mightily...

mccardey said:

All the blokes in our tiny village (including my husband) are up at the bar.

I wasn't invited

Sarko's speech seemed to move his supporters mightily...

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Yeah, definitely. I realized I've never seen that type of speech: someone who spent a term with the country but lost reelection. It was really personal. I actually feel a bit bad for him, but I always feel bad for the losing candidate.

I wish I could go out! I have to work in the morning.

mccardey said:

Sarko's speech seemed to move his supporters mightily...

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Moved them to barf up their hors d'oeuvres. probably. The BBC seems to think Hollande's won it, which is well-deserved kick in the nadgers for austerity economics.

Some brilliant tv coverage on - I'm starting to get a feel for some of the new regime; there's a lot of passion, isn't there? In Australia we tend to a more laconic political style..

Raquel Garrido is one forceful woman, in a bit of a loose-cannon-y way - I wonder who'd win in a dinner-party-fracas between her and Marine le Pen?

Unofficial numbers phoned in from the blokes at the bar - three were for Hollande, 30 for Le Pen, 70 for Sarko.

The three who were for Hollande have gone home early.

I'm still not invited

mccardey said:

Some brilliant tv coverage on - I'm starting to get a feel for some of the new regime; there's a lot of passion, isn't there? In Australia we tend to a more laconic political style..

Raquel Garrido is one forceful woman, in a bit of a loose-cannon-y way - I wonder who'd win in a dinner-party-fracas between her and Marine le Pen?

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Hahaha I watched Raquel Garrido! Her display was so typically French. The way they talk over each other and the entire world falls away as they bicker. Notice that the noise continued in the backround after the camera panned away from them.

Teinz said:

I certainly hope so. Hollande being a socialist, I reckon the "Cut, cut, cut!" solutions to the crisis will be mitigated a bit.

Our government has fallen too, elections will probably be held in October. What happens in France will certainly influence the debate overhere aswell.

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I hadn't heard anything about this! Honestly, sometimes the BBC can be so bloody parochial....

Alessandra Kelley said:

Hmmm. Does this mean that some of the austerity measures may be dropped? Because to be honest, you could not say that they have improved the economic situation any in Europe.

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Hollande has been openly critical of the austerity solution to the debt crisis in Europe.

I don't know enough about French politics to say if his support is from people who saw Sarkozy's austerity plans as a failure, or if they just were upset over having benefits slashed.

In either case, since the French and the Germans were on the same page as far as handling the European debt crisis, this is going to throw a monkey wrench in the works, for good or ill.

Hollande has said that he does believe cuts are necessary, but also believes the "cuts only" solution and the slashing of government (much like the GOP solution here) is the wrong way to go about it.

missesdash said:

Yeah, definitely. I realized I've never seen that type of speech: someone who spent a term with the country but lost reelection. It was really personal. I actually feel a bit bad for him, but I always feel bad for the losing candidate.

I wish I could go out! I have to work in the morning.

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Do you happen to have a link for that speech (in English - my French isn't up to it!) There was a local election in Germany so the channels were full of that here and France only got a wink.

OK -- I think I found it here.

Alessandra Kelley said:

Hmmm. Does this mean that some of the austerity measures may be dropped? Because to be honest, you could not say that they have improved the economic situation any in Europe.

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Austerity economics have become the defining issue of the decade in Europe. They've already toppled governments in Greece, Italy, the Netherlands and France, and the crisis hasn't even come to a head. The UK's coalition just got butchered in the local elections, and even Merkel -- Germany is the big winner in all of this, inasmuch as anyone wins from a permanent depression -- is taking a hiding.

Strangely, last night's election in Greece is probably more significant than that in France, because the new government is likely to be anti-austerity. Greece will then discover how much of its sovereignty has been appropriated by the EU. I have no idea what would happen then, but a fan/shit collision looks probable.

Priene said:

Strangely, last night's election in Greece is probably more significant than that in France, because the new government is likely to be anti-austerity. Greece will then discover how much of its sovereignty has been appropriated by the EU. I have no idea what would happen then, but a fan/shit collision looks probable.

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I concur about the fan/shit situation in Greece. The two parties that were prepared to abide by the terms of the bailout do not have enough seats to form a majority government. The rejectionists hold the majority, but they are such a diverse bunch they seem unlikely to form a coalition.

mirandashell said:

I hadn't heard anything about this! Honestly, sometimes the BBC can be so bloody parochial....

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It is, alas, the fate of a small country.