Predictions, anyone?

I don't think this is the right subforum for this. It's not just about agenting. Maybe roundtable?

alexalex said:

1. In 3-5 years, will printed books go by the way of vinyl records?

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I don't believe so. Not everyone has or wants an ereader and from what I read on this site and elsewhere on the net, lots of people are still buying physical books. I know I do and always will.

2. Will brick and mortar pub houses be releasing e-books and promoting them?

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They already do.

3. Will the role of agents, as we know it, change to where they will be assisting with the release of e-books?

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They already do.

4. Will only a few select agencies and pub houses be still around after this shakeup?

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Publishing has been in shakeup since the first time one person paid another for writing, yet agents and publishers are still around. Go figure. I don't see that changing.

5. Where will authors go to have their work validated or authenticate its release?

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Same place authors have gotten their validation on it's release since the dawn of publishing, the reader. I think you mean before release? I don't believe that will change either. For some it will be agents, editors and publishers. For others it will be whoever works with them on their self-pub journey.

6. Will there still be gate keepers or will it become an open entry into e-pub for all authors? If so, will the readers ultimately become the gatekeepers? And if so, will the reader be the one left with the onerous responsibility of sorting through the slush pile?

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I get a sense you are confused between e-publish and self-publish. An author can be both or either. Right now it is open entry for all to e-pub. Not so for e-pub that isn't self-published. As I've said already I don't believe trade publishing is going anywhere and so there will still be gatekeepers for trade e-pub. Readers are already sorting through a slushpile of self-published books. Just like Trade publishing some excellent books are coming to light and some excellent books are languishing at the bottom of the pile. I personally believe gate keepers have a purpose in publishing. I can't say they always get it 100% right. No-one is infallible.

7. Who will be responsible for winnowing the chaff from the grain?

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I think my previous comment covers this.

8. Are you willing to gaze into the crystal ball and predict the future?

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I use Tarot.

As far as publishing, I will state what I believe and make an educated guess based on what experienced industry professionals who know much more than I do say. Anyone who says this or that is the way publishing will absolutely be in 5 years is either lying or having their estimation of what the future will be mistaking received as fact. No one knows the future.

Do rolling eyes make a sound? I think I just heard one.

Printed books will never go away.

Rather than them "going the way of the Vinyl record" I think they may go the way of radio. People thought radio was dead when TV came around * hums TV Killed the Radio Star* but even decades later, with sirius radio, ipods etc. they are still around (even if struggling).

Might they shrink? Sure. Will be disappear? Never (at least that is my firm belief)

1. In 3-5 years, will printed books go by the way of vinyl records?

No

2. Will brick and mortar pub houses be releasing e-books and promoting them?

They already do

3. Will the role of agents, as we know it, change to where they will be assisting with the release of e-books?

God, I hope not

4. Will only a few select agencies and pub houses be still around after this shakeup?

No

5. Where will authors go to have their work validated or authenticate its release?

The same places they do now

6. Will there still be gate keepers or will it become an open entry into e-pub for all authors? If so, will the readers ultimately become the gatekeepers? And if so, will the reader be the one left with the onerous responsibility of sorting through the slush pile?

Yes, No, No

7. Who will be responsible for winnowing the chaff from the grain?

The same people as now

8. Are you willing to gaze into the crystal ball and predict the future?

It will look a lot like the present with the same trends continuing.

My brief predictions - ebooks will continue to grow. The holiday season this year should break new records in sales. Print books will not die - if ever not for a long time because too many of us love the actual feel of a book in our hands. How we buy them may change but they'll be around. Yes, many publishers have branched out into eBooks too and that trend will continue as well. Some agents already handle eBook sales and details. Most everything else will remain the same - for now.

1. In 3-5 years, will printed books go by the way of vinyl records?
This is something I know 100% that I am not wrong in...it will take longer than 3-5 years, but printed media is on its way out. There is no way around it.

Just like the typewriter. There are people who prefer writing on a typewriter, for example, but the truth is, a computer is 500% better because of the editing options you have.

Printed media feels good to hold...but let's be honest...we're a dying breed. There will come a point in time when schools require eBook Readers in place of actual books. Economically it will save millions. Those kids will grow up on eBook Readers or Tablets, and that will be that.

The publishers that accept this and plan for it will be the most successful. Denial is death.


2. Will brick and mortar pub houses be releasing e-books and promoting them?

They already are. Many publishers are starting new websites just for eBook publishing. One advantage is overhead. Publishers can have their own stores for little cost.

3. Will the role of agents, as we know it, change to where they will be assisting with the release of e-books?

Agents are going to be the hardest hit. They will have to adjust on the fly. I think you will see more and more agents starting to offer other services, such as editting. Even though it's frowned upon right now, they may have to do it just to survive.

And they may have to take lower commissions in the future. 10-15% of a printed novel doesn't hurt as badly as 10-15% of a lowerpriced eBook. Adjustments will need to be made. Agents will have to do these things to adjust:

1) Lower commissions
2) Higher quantity of clients

4. Will only a few select agencies and pub houses be still around after this shakeup?

It depends on how the industry addapts. I think there will always be ways to succeed so long as these agencies and house are willing to evolve.

Take website designers for example. Web Hosting companies have started offering easy website template systems to their customers. It's killed the web design industry.

So now, designers provide template design to those hosting companies.

5. Where will authors go to have their work validated or authenticate its release?

Listing services. That's the future. Reviews and listing services. Authors can now self publish electronically for next to nothing. There is an untapped market there...when a company begins gathering listings and reviewing the works of these authors...that's when things will really take a huge step forward.

6. Will there still be gate keepers or will it become an open entry into e-pub for all authors? If so, will the readers ultimately become the gatekeepers? And if so, will the reader be the one left with the onerous responsibility of sorting through the slush pile?

I think it will come down to advertising. Even now, we occasionally see commercials for new books from popular authors. So much overhead is removed by publishing electronically that there is room to budget quality advertising. That's where the trend will lead.

7. Who will be responsible for winnowing the chaff from the grain?

And there's the crutch of the matter. It will have to be the readers. Sites like Amazon will develop legit ranking systems, supported by the consumers. It's coming slowly, but it's coming.

8. Are you willing to gaze into the crystal ball and predict the future?

Just did

PeteDutcher said:

1. In 3-5 years, will printed books go by the way of vinyl records?
This is something I know 100% that I am not wrong in...it will take longer than 3-5 years, but printed media is on its way out. There is no way around it.

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I just don't buy it. Sure, a lot of things like textbooks, newspapers, most magazines, etc. will probably go all epub, because they're not intended for permanent or lasting use to begin with. And we'll probably reach a point where there are e-versions of every book. However, print still has some advantages that there's no way of erasing.

The comparison to vinyl records really isn't a valid one. Records and CDs are more alike than they are different; one is analog and one digital, but both are physical objects which require power and a special piece of equipment to play. Now that music is mostly purely digital the difference is a little greater, but still, to listen to music you need a powered device of one kind or another. No way around it.

To read a book you need--the book. That's it. No power required, no worries about the hard drive crashing or corrupt files or viruses or glitches or crashes or obsolete media. The book and enough light to see it--period. That's an enormous advantage. Isaac Asimov pointed out decades ago that a book is the perfect entertainment medium--it can be fast forwarded or rewound at will, enjoyed in any public place without imposing on others, requires no power, etc.

Plus: there are some people, and likely always will be, who appreciate books as pleasurable objects in and of themselves. Does that mean they'll ONLY buy print? Probably not, but they won't stop buying it. I have books from small, independent publishers crafted with love and care that I'm proud to have on my shelf, books that simply couldn't be replicated digitally. The feel is part of it, the heft, the smell. The texture.

Plus: there are things you can do in a book that can't be replicated on the e-reader. Art books, for example. Photos and paintings that can be replicated beautifully on paper, at original size or close to it, would look terrible shrunk down to e-reader size, no matter how good the graphics get.

E-reading is going to continue to grow, and print will shrink. There's no doubt of that. But print as a viable form of media will be around for a long, long, long time.

Tromboli said:

Printed books will never go away.

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In a decade or two you'll be able to buy something like a sheet of paper which can store and display more books than you can read in a lifetime. There are already flexible e-ink displays which could be used for that purpose and they'll improve over time.

I'm sure that printed books will stay around for many decades to come, but eventually they will become very much a niche product; rather like reading papyrus scrolls today.

This reminds me of what people were claiming 15 years or so ago when the Internet started really coming into its own. I was enrolled in library school at the time and all the "library doomsday prophets" were claiming that the "cybrary" was going to take over the actual physical library, and that there would be no such thing as public or academic libraries anymore. Of course all of us students were worried we wouldn't have library jobs when we graduated. The outlook was gloomy. But here we are, years later, and libraries still exist and won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

It's the same idea with all this ebook / ereader hype. Physical books aren't going anywhere. Because for all the popularity of the ebook trend, there are plenty of people out there like myself who feel nothing can or will replace the touch, feel, smell and experience of reading a physical book. Ebooks simply offer another option, that's all. The paper book simply makes more sense for a lot of people. I certainly can't picture hoards of senior citizens who enjoy reading books reading them on Kindles. I just can't.

Creative_Solitude said:

I certainly can't picture hoards of senior citizens who enjoy reading books reading them on Kindles. I just can't.

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That's odd, because others have told me that seniors love e-books because they can set the font to a large size and don't have to worry about finding large-print books that they can still read with failing eyesight.

movieman said:

That's odd, because others have told me that seniors love e-books because they can set the font to a large size and don't have to worry about finding large-print books that they can still read with failing eyesight.

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I see your point there and yes, I can see how the ability to make the font larger for better reading would be a bonus to them. I guess I'm thinking more along the lines of those seniors who are resistant to embracing modern technology.

I just don't see e-books replacing paper books anytime soon.

The world is going to end on October 21st so I predict books will be around till then

The funny thing is that conversations like this always seem to treat all books the same, but there are vast differences between them. Ebooks work best for novels, I think, because they're all text. They could be helpful to textbooks in the future because those things are updated so often which makes the paper books less desirable than something electronic. But what about illustrated books (both for children and how to books that require pictures which would be difficult to understand cut down to ereader size)? What about large coffee table books, for instance art and travel books? What about children's pop up books? What about over sized books for use in preschools and kindergartens?

Comparing to records makes no sense. A record or a CD or an mp3 aren't that different in terms of output. Everything comes to you through speakers or headphones in the end. It's the sound you're after. With books format can make a difference, which is why we already have multiple formats in the paper book world to cater to different purposes. If a new format made other formats disappear, we couldn't have all of these formats coexisting, but they do.

Wayne K said:

The world is going to end on October 21st so I predict books will be around till then

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On my niece's birthday? That's rough!

PeteDutcher said:

1. In 3-5 years, will printed books go by the way of vinyl records?
This is something I know 100% that I am not wrong in...it will take longer than 3-5 years, but printed media is on its way out. There is no way around it.

Just like the typewriter. There are people who prefer writing on a typewriter, for example, but the truth is, a computer is 500% better because of the editing options you have.

Printed media feels good to hold...but let's be honest...we're a dying breed. There will come a point in time when schools require eBook Readers in place of actual books. Economically it will save millions. Those kids will grow up on eBook Readers or Tablets, and that will be that.

The publishers that accept this and plan for it will be the most successful. Denial is death.

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South Korea announced they are going completely digital by 2015 at all grade levels in their schools. No print textbooks at all, a lot of other countries are going to be influenced by this.

http://goodereader.com/blog/electro...ding-the-way-in-widespread-digital-textbooks/

alexalex said:

1. In 3-5 years, will printed books go by the way of vinyl records?

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Not a chance.

alexalex said:

2. Will brick and mortar pub houses be releasing e-books and promoting them?

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They already do.

alexalex said:

3. Will the role of agents, as we know it, change to where they will be assisting with the release of e-books?

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If you're talking about ebook-only agents, there's already one I could name. Given that she does nothing for her clients they couldn't do themselves and more than one of said clients has said, "She's green, but I'm with her for the prestige of saying my agent," I wouldn't touch her with a bargepole.

alexalex said:

4. Will only a few select agencies and pub houses be still around after this shakeup?

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Nope.

alexalex said:

5. Where will authors go to have their work validated or authenticate its release?

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Same places they do now.

alexalex said:

6. Will there still be gate keepers or will it become an open entry into e-pub for all authors? If so, will the readers ultimately become the gatekeepers? And if so, will the reader be the one left with the onerous responsibility of sorting through the slush pile?

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I bloody hope there are still gatekeepers. The erotic romance epub market is chock-full of shite, which is why there are certain publishers I'd never go with -- because of their reputation for churning out any old crap.

alexalex said:

7. Who will be responsible for winnowing the chaff from the grain?

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With ebooks? The publishers and editors. With traditional publishers? Agents and editors.

alexalex said:

8. Are you willing to gaze into the crystal ball and predict the future?

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I just did.

alexalex said:

1. In 3-5 years, will printed books go by the way of vinyl records?

No.


2. Will brick and mortar pub houses be releasing e-books and promoting them?

They already are.

3. Will the role of agents, as we know it, change to where they will be assisting with the release of e-books?

Why would an agent assist with the release of e-books? I'm an e-publisher, and once the deal is signed agents can tracks their clients' sales on our database, but they have nothing to do with releasing the book. AND I'd be a little suspicious of an agent who does both. Conflict of interest, IMO.
4. Will only a few select agencies and pub houses be still around after this shakeup?

What shakeup? Haven't noticed any shakeups.

5. Where will authors go to have their work validated or authenticate its release?

Validated? Authenticated? Pardon me, but what are you talking about?

6. Will there still be gate keepers or will it become an open entry into e-pub for all authors? If so, will the readers ultimately become the gatekeepers? And if so, will the reader be the one left with the onerous responsibility of sorting through the slush pile?

It will be a lot like it is now. Gatekeepers for trade publishing, good e-publishers, small presses and agencies. No gatekeepers for self-publishing other than Amazon reviews--


7. Who will be responsible for winnowing the chaff from the grain?

The same people who are now.

8. Are you willing to gaze into the crystal ball and predict the future?

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The future is already here, and despite claims to the contrary nothing much has changed so far. My prediction is that select small presses will continue to gain stature and distribution, that fly-by-night e-publishers will continue to self-destruct, that all kinds of people will continue to broadcast Chicken Little stories about the death of traditional publishing, and that authors who are seeking a wider audience for their books will either go the same old route they always have or self-publish before they're properly edited and thus ruin a perfectly good book.

Yep. Don't have to be Sylvia Brown to figure all this out.

alexalex said:

1. In 3-5 years, will printed books go by the way of vinyl records?

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Much loved and still recieving a very healthy trade? Probably.

2. Will brick and mortar pub houses be releasing e-books and promoting them?

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They already do.

3. Will the role of agents, as we know it, change to where they will be assisting with the release of e-books?

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I can't see it being different to how it is now, same product, just a different format, and most agents are well used to negotiating ebook rights.

4. Will only a few select agencies and pub houses be still around after this shakeup?

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No. Publishing is thriving with MORE agencies and publishers than before.

5. Where will authors go to have their work validated or authenticate its release?

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I'm not sure I understand your question. Once a book is in print it's authenticated, as you call it. The only thing I can think of is if you are thinking about ISBNs, which the author can buy themselves.

6. Will there still be gate keepers or will it become an open entry into e-pub for all authors? If so, will the readers ultimately become the gatekeepers? And if so, will the reader be the one left with the onerous responsibility of sorting through the slush pile?

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Readers are already gatekeepers, if they read your first book and don't like it, no matter how hyped up it was, then they won't buy or read the second one.

Publishing will still have gatekeepers, and so it should.

7. Who will be responsible for winnowing the chaff from the grain?

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Again, see point above. Self publishing is unregulated, which means that anything, and everything can get published without any sort of quality control.This is part of th reason self publishing has had a bad name in teh past. Sadly, the rise of ebook technology means that more crap can get out there.

In terms of traditional publishing the agents and editors are responsible for separating what is good and what is not. In self publishing the reader has to do this themselves.

8. Are you willing to gaze into the crystal ball and predict the future?

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Sure, why not.

I don't see print books, agents, or publishers going away. I do think their roles will change to adapt to circumstance.

I'll give my thoughts on e-books (from the point of view of someone who really knows nothing) and fiction. Non-fiction & technical info (say law books) serve different purposes. I have a few thoughts on them too.

I think self-publishing is a more viable option for mid-list (for lack of a better term) authors with extensive experience & a degree of name recognition. I don't think it will ever be viable for a beginner. It's not simply the learning curve of production & distribution, but the goodwill of readers who know an author's reputation and buy based on that author's name. I'd buy a self-pubbed Joe Lansdale book in a heartbeat.

I think e-books give freedom to create. The business of fiction is story-telling, but it is constrained by the business of publishing. E-books, by using a process with a lower overhead, ease the constraints. I think we are seeing something akin to the explosions of pulps and paperbacks which were rooted in inexpensive printed entertainment for the masses. The product is not costly, it can be delivered almost anywhere, the masses are starting to notice.

The downside of the lack of constraint is a lot of mediocre to poor stuff gets published. The good side is that new model publishers can take a chance on well-written stories that don't fit high-cost models. Creativity gets a chance to fly, or crash as the case may be.

To give an analogy, I heard my friend Paul Sammon's presentation about Sci-Fi movies and Hollywood. He grew up watching cheaply-made Sci-Fi & horror films. Their cheapness often showed, but their brilliance did too. When he got into movies professionally, Star Wars had shown Sci-Fi could made lots of money. From then on studios paid more attention, they lavished bigger budgets, but put more constraints on making movies in order to protect their investment (after the fashion of corporate clerks). The result was not necessarily better movies, just more expensive ones. The best were the ones where writer and director were the same or in close harmony, just telling a story, without the studio telling them how to reach "market quadrants."

Technology can change business, but this business is in a strange position of mediating between a creator and an audience. The more it facilitates the creator to be his best the better.