UK Gov taskforce: Global oil demand will outstrip supply in 5 yeas or less (so it's time to prepare)

Plot Device · Jun 4, 2011

Here's the press release from the UK Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security

http://peakoiltaskforce.net/http:/peakoil.solarcentury.com/government-to-work-with-business/

And here's a New Zealand commentary on that press release:

http://www.fcnp.com/commentary/national/9335-the-peak-oil-crisis-an-announcement.html

The Peak Oil Crisis: An Announcement

By Tom Whipple

Wednesday, June 01 2011

With little fanfare, a press release appeared last week on the website of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES). The release said that during a meeting between Chris Huhne, the UK's Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, and representatives of ITPOES, an agreement had been reached that Her Majesty's Department for Energy and Climate will collaborate with ITPOES on a joint examination of concerns that global oil supply will begin to fall behind demand within as little as five years. This collaboration is seen by the British government as the first step in the development of a national peak oil contingency plan.

There are many implications buried in this seemingly innocuous announcement. First, American readers should note that the British government recognizes that energy policy and climate change are inextricably linked so that you cannot formulate policies for one without the other. The major step forward, however, is the official and semi-public recognition by a major government that global oil supplies will fall behind demand in as little as five years. After years of official denial this is indeed a breakthrough worthy of note....

The sad thing is that a mere 5-years worth of lead time is not enough for any nation to truly prepare. But at least the UK is taking steps much sooner than the USA.

Meanwhile, I am still clinging with much sentimentality to the imagery from those old 1950's sci-fi B-films where a lone scientist tells the President of some terrible catastrophe that will soon befall the Earth. And then everyone --from the military to private industry to small family farms-- all instantly swings into action to prepare for it. If anyone in those old movies ever doubted that scientist, their quibbling didn't hold up the effort for longer than a week or two.

Putting aside those old B-films, we had a lone scientist tell the world about Peak Oil back in 1956. He was laughed out the door and into the margins of his profession for over a decade. Then in the early 1970's, after America had been brought to its knees by the Arab Oil Embargo, he found himself sitting across the table from the US President, briefing him an his advisors about the seriousness of Peak Oil. The prediction he gave them was that planet-wide Peak Oil would happen sometime between 1998 and 2000 -- a solid twenty-five-year warning which gave us plenty of lead-time to prepare.

What have we as a nation done since the 1970's about all this?

Not much.

Did Peak Oil happen in 1998? No. It now seems it happened in 2006. We're feeling the tremors of it right now. And it will really unleash its full-on unpleasantness between now and 2017 (the Brits currently say 2016, but I hold out for 2017 myself, but that's a minor point).

I still like my old B-films not only because everyone believed the scientist, but also because they always had a happy ending.

Don · Jun 4, 2011

I don't think Harry Stamper's going to save us this time, PD. I think the asteroids have already been striking for a long time, and the dinosaurs are doomed. We're all going to have to learn to be mammals again. Adapt or die.

icerose · Jun 4, 2011

On an interesting and related note (bonus!) I have noticed the gas stations around here don't always get their fuel trucks. We are pretty rural, about 3 hours from a big city and 60 minutes from a fast food joint or walmart to give you an indication of how rural. Last year there was one fuel truck that was pushed back for a week and about a hundred people went without fuel service for that week or had to come to the next town over and get fuel. Most people keep their tanks around full if they can afford it because again, we're rural, better to have a full tank of gas then nothing and not be able to react to whatever situation happens. Last year it happened once. This year already it has happened 7 times, and it wasn't just the one gas station either, it was all of them.

It's interesting to walk up to the pumps and have them say premium only, it's all we got left, or use that last pump, it's the only one with fuel in it. Now we live close enough to the store (about two miles) that we could walk to get our essentials, but we would truly be stuck if fuel were to run out and although people do personal gardens there isn't much in the way of agriculture outside of cows and chickens around here.

I have to say I cringe every time I see the gas station is low or out of fuel because it never used to happen and now it's happening at least once a month.

Volkswagon has been developing a 2 passenger vehicle that gets between 250-315 miles per gallon for the past ten years. It's a hybrid and is supposed to hit the market this year for 25k. I have to say the next vehicle I buy, if I have the luxury of affording that kind of pricetag. Would be one of those or something like it.

clintl · Jun 4, 2011

icerose said:
Volkswagon has been developing a 2 passenger vehicle that gets between 250-315 miles per gallon for the past ten years. It's a hybrid and is supposed to hit the market this year for 25k. I have to say the next vehicle I buy, if I have the luxury of affording that kind of pricetag. Would be one of those or something like it.

If it can do that, and sells for 25K, that would put it near the top of my list for my next vehicle. And since my current car is 19 years old, I'm thinking about it.

icerose · Jun 4, 2011

clintl said:
If it can do that, and sells for 25K, that would put it near the top of my list for my next vehicle. And since my current car is 19 years old, I'm thinking about it.

Here's a link to it. http://www.thelocal.de/sci-tech/20110126-32667.html There was a lot of bs floating around this car for the past few years when it was still in bobsled design mode, which it's changed to side by side since then. But people were claiming it only cost 600 bucks to make. Which is a riot because they've obviously never bought batteries necessary to make something like this work.

I really like this part of it because that encompasses most of my driving.

The car can be driven up to 35 kilometres in purely electric mode meaning it has no carbon emissions up till that point.

The battery can be charged from a household power socket. The battery is also charged by the energy captured by slowing down.

clintl · Jun 4, 2011

It even looks good, although it appears that having to change a rear tire would be a big pain in the ass.

Ink-Stained Wretch · Jun 4, 2011

Prediction: this will do nothing, nada, el zilcho to dissuade Americans who are convinced "the right to cheap gasoline" is written somewhere in the constitution.

True story: remember what happened to the US gasoline supply when Hurricane Katrina trashed our Gulf Coast refining capacity? I remember reading that in some markets -- Atlanta comes to mind -- there was no gasoline at all for awhile. Here in the northeast that was not a problem; you could still buy all the gas you wanted, but prices jumped overnight from roughly $2.50 a gallon to $3.50. No surprise there; anyone with the most elementary knowledge of economics, and supply and demand, could figure out "The supply of refined gasoline has dropped significantly, while the demand remains the same, so of course prices will rise!"

Despite this, my state's dimbulb then-governor -- a moderate Republican who presumably should know better -- started making pandering speeches blaming everything on "price-gouging gas station owners." Had prices not leveled out a month or so later as refining capacity came back online, I have no doubt she would've tried instituting price controls, and had she done that, we too would've had no gasoline available for sale, because no gas-station owner (or any other business owner) is going to voluntarily work at a loss and sell his products for less money than he actually paid for them.

And that's how people behaved in light of an undeniable fact: a good percentage of our oil refineries have gone offline, therefore there is considerably less refined oil available -- no, no, it's a price-gouging plot! That's the only reason gas prices are higher! That's the only possible reason prices could be higher! Don't talk to me about supply and demand and economic fundamentals and LA LA LA LA I'M NOT LISTENING!!!

Compare that to what will happen when, say, the amount of oil coming out of Ghawar or the North Sea fields dries up: the average person cannot know for a fact that Ghawar's run dry, the way we knew for a fact that certain refineries which worked before Katrina stopped working afterwards. So, rather than admit "gas will be more expensive now, we'd best adjust to that fact," there will instead be screeching demands that the government Do Something to protect our Zod-given right to cheap gasoline.

Ink-Stained Wretch · Jun 4, 2011

clintl said:
If it can do that, and sells for 25K, that would put it near the top of my list for my next vehicle. And since my current car is 19 years old, I'm thinking about it.

Don't forget, though: in addition to the initial price of the car, you might also be dinged with a significantly higher tax bill, as certain states have already floated the idea of inflicting extra taxes on hybrid owners to make up for the fact that they pay less gasoline taxes. Even if your state or city has no such hybrid tax penalty now, who knows how lawmakers will lash out when they see their revenues dropping?

icerose · Jun 4, 2011

clintl said:
It even looks good, although it appears that having to change a rear tire would be a big pain in the ass.

Hah, I was thinking the same thing. But I'd still love to have one.

Ink-Stained Wretch said:
Prediction: this will do nothing, nada, el zilcho to dissuade Americans who are convinced "the right to cheap gasoline" is written somewhere in the constitution.

I think there's a certain demograph that even a year after gasoline has been scarce will still be screaming it's all a conspiracy and that the oil supply is endless. It boggles my mind that the idea that the earth is limited and thus all resources on it are limited still can't be grasped by certain people.

icerose · Jun 4, 2011

Ink-Stained Wretch said:
Don't forget, though: in addition to the initial price of the car, you might also be dinged with a significantly higher tax bill, as certain states have already floated the idea of inflicting extra taxes on hybrid owners to make up for the fact that they pay less gasoline taxes. Even if your state or city has no such hybrid tax penalty now, who knows how lawmakers will lash out when they see their revenues dropping?

They've already done it to motorcycles around here. An extra 50 dollars just to register it. It cost us 120 dollars to register my husband's motorcycle.

Maxinquaye · Jun 4, 2011

I have very little sympathy for yanks and their gas prices. I was listening the other day to a couple that were complaining about 1 gallon (ie 4.5 litres) apparently cost somewhere around $4. That's $0.88 per litre. Which is €0.6.

A litre of petrol in any country in the EU would start at €1. If I'm not wrong 1 litre of petrol in the UK cost £1.35. That's £6.13 per US gallon. Or $10.07 per gallon.

You could say 'O woe is us', but it's not really comparable because in the UK you can hop on the bus or the train and go anywhere. The public transport system is very well developed, although the quality of it sometimes leaves a bit to be desired.

I don't really mind those prices. That said, I don't live rurally, and I don't even own a car. I don't need to own a car. I don't even have a driver's license. I don't need it. In the US I think I would have been very handicapped. Here I'm not.

Ink-Stained Wretch · Jun 4, 2011

icerose said:
I think there's a certain demograph that even a year after gasoline has been scarce will still be screaming it's all a conspiracy and that the oil supply is endless. It boggles my mind that the idea that the earth is limited and thus all resources on it are limited still can't be grasped by certain people.

I am cynical enough to believe "certain people" are actually "the majority of American voters." It's not just gasoline, either; here we are three or four years into a bad recession, and good friggin' luck trying to convince certain state and municipal governments "We must make do with the money we have, because people simply cannot afford another tax increase." Good luck trying to convince certain public-sector workers "We cannot afford to give you a raise this year because the money simply isn't there."

A lot of people seriously believe "the world owes me a living" or, more specifically, "If I need something, that means I have the right to demand someone else give it to me." For awhile, America was rich enough to pretend that was true, but those days are fast coming to an end. I suspect that even before high gasoline prices cause major economic problems, we'll first see major economic disruptions as people who became dependent on handouts see those handouts dry up. In the immediate aftermath of Katrina, I remember a certain SUV-driving colleague who seriously suggested that people with low-gas-mileage vehicles should get government subsidies to cover their high gas prices. The idea that he should have to make any changes to his lifestyle -- get a vehicle with better gas mileage, move closer to work so he has less of a commute -- literally never occurred to him, and when I suggested it, he was as outraged as if I'd suggested bringing back slavery: how dare I callously suggest such an utter violation of anyone's basic human rights! Like the right to have anything you want regardless of whether you can actually afford it.

CACTUSWENDY · Jun 4, 2011

Well, when you consider that the USA is a lot bigger than the UK and that to get from point A to point B can be miles and miles, it will take some rethinking on our part to change that. The public transport for most places here is not very good. Few folks live 'close' to their work places. Many do not live close to their stores of choice. Etc.

It will take a different way of looking at things here. We have had our heads buried in the sand for many years. :poke:

Ink-Stained Wretch · Jun 4, 2011

icerose said:
They've already done it to motorcycles around here. An extra 50 dollars just to register it. It cost us 120 dollars to register my husband's motorcycle.

What's especially odious about that is, motorcycles and their riders, being extremely lightweight compared to even a small car, are responsible for almost none of the wear and tear done to the roads, yet effectively pay far, far more than their fair share. A hundred bikers commuting every day will still wear the roads down far less than a single SUV.

clintl · Jun 4, 2011

Ink-Stained Wretch said:
Don't forget, though: in addition to the initial price of the car, you might also be dinged with a significantly higher tax bill, as certain states have already floated the idea of inflicting extra taxes on hybrid owners to make up for the fact that they pay less gasoline taxes. Even if your state or city has no such hybrid tax penalty now, who knows how lawmakers will lash out when they see their revenues dropping?

Here in California, it takes a 2/3 vote to raise any tax or fee other than a school bond. It even takes a 2/3 vote for the legislature to put a tax increase on the ballot for the voters to decide. I don't see a tax like this happening here any time soon. In any case, any such tax I've seen proposed would be miniscule compared to the gas price savings. What I'm more concerned about is PG&E price gouging on electrical rates.

icerose · Jun 4, 2011

Ink-Stained Wretch said:
What's especially odious about that is, motorcycles and their riders, being extremely lightweight compared to even a small car, are responsible for almost none of the wear and tear done to the roads, yet effectively pay far, far more than their fair share. A hundred bikers commuting every day will still wear the roads down far less than a single SUV.

Oh I know. The governments will be worse than any individual when it comes to denial. Just look at how many local, state, and federal problems there are just with budget.

What's funny is the government charges my husband more to drive a motorcycle than it did for him to drive his gas guzzling ancient toxin spewing truck which we happily replaced with a motorcycle. Still, what kind of message is that supposed to send? Oh, right, 'gimme all your money and no one will get hurt...unless you do something we don't like, then we hurt you too'. hehe, I'm turning into a morphed Don.

Arcturus · Jun 4, 2011

Peak Oil? Maybe. It's more like not being able to drill that's costing us more. My parents own a oilfield related business, and Obama's policies all but stopped new exploration in the US. We make windwalls or vinyl houses that go around the bottom of oil wells, much of our product during the winter went north toward US/Canadian border. However, most of our oil is actually imported from Canada, and what we pump out, such as West Texas Crude (my hometown alone has something like 80 operating wells at the moment) is sold on the global market. Therein lies the problem.

What people don't realize also that these environmental restrictions if they are passed on us by Obama, has energy producing states running scared. In several reports we have gotten, most l energy producers will basically shut down because they can't afford to operate.

Another issue is artificial scarcity of refining facilities. Many smaller refineries have been shut down to create scarcity.

icerose · Jun 4, 2011

Here's another one that I did not know about. It hasn't been released yet but you can reserve a model. I don't see a price tag so I have no idea how much it's going to be fore. Pure electric, seats 5 adults and 2 children. http://www.teslamotors.com/models/specs

ETA: It's all right here. http://www.teslamotors.com/models/faq

Ink-Stained Wretch · Jun 4, 2011

icerose said:
Oh I know. The governments will be worse than any individual when it comes to denial. Just look at how many local, state, and federal problems there are just with budget.

What's funny is the government charges my husband more to drive a motorcycle than it did for him to drive his gas guzzling ancient toxin spewing truck which we happily replaced with a motorcycle. Still, what kind of message is that supposed to send? Oh, right, 'gimme all your money and no one will get hurt...unless you do something we don't like, then we hurt you too'. hehe, I'm turning into a morphed Don.

In many other contexts, and more than a few professional articles, I have argued that one major problem with modern America is that the government no longer views people as "free citizens possessing certain inalienable rights"; instead, we're viewed first and foremost as "sources of revenue."

whacko · Jun 4, 2011

Don't take anything UK agencies say as fact. Last year the Met Office told us to prepare for a "barbecue summer". It pis.. er, poured from the heavens! Then we were told about a mild winter. It's June and I've still got the heating on.

Then there was the Millenium Bug, remember that? On a taskforce's recommendation the UK spent billions in ensuring that planes wouldn't fall out the sky etc. Spain didn't spend a penny. And I don't think the rest of the world budgeted much more for the supposed crisis/impending doom/end of life as we know it than the Spanish.

And if you really want to save money on fuel, get a motorbike. Not only is a bike cheaper to run than a car, you get a great excuse to wear leather trousers.

Regards

Whacko

icerose · Jun 4, 2011

Ink-Stained Wretch said:
In many other contexts, and more than a few professional articles, I have argued that one major problem with modern America is that the government no longer views people as "free citizens possessing certain inalienable rights"; instead, we're viewed first and foremost as "sources of revenue."

That doesn't surprise me a bit, sad to say.

Zoombie · Jun 4, 2011

I think government in general, from the Pharaohs to the Presidents sees their people as sources of revenue and power.

I know, I'm sure you're all SHOCKED that I'd say that.

Plot Device · Jun 4, 2011

Arcturus said:
Peak Oil? Maybe. It's more like not being able to drill that's costing us more. My parents own a oilfield related business, and Obama's policies all but stopped new exploration in the US. We make windwalls or vinyl houses that go around the bottom of oil wells, much of our product during the winter went north toward US/Canadian border. However, most of our oil is actually imported from Canada, and what we pump out, such as West Texas Crude (my hometown alone has something like 80 operating wells at the moment) is sold on the global market. Therein lies the problem.

What people don't realize also that these environmental restrictions if they are passed on us by Obama, has energy producing states running scared. In several reports we have gotten, most l energy producers will basically shut down because they can't afford to operate.

Another issue is artificial scarcity of refining facilities. Many smaller refineries have been shut down to create scarcity.

How about if we as a nation just stop using oil all together? That right there wold make drilling a moot point.

Now I admit that a transition to an oil-free society could easilly take as long as 50 years. But seeing as how we were warned 55 years ago that this would happen, we have no one to blame but ourselves for not getting on the stick a little sooner.

Zoombie · Jun 4, 2011

Or this!

Plot Device · Jun 4, 2011

Icerose, I tried to launch a lengthy response to this post this morning. But I lost my connection and the reply evaporated. Here's the shorter reply ....

icerose said:
On an interesting and related note (bonus!) I have noticed the gas stations around here don't always get their fuel trucks. We are pretty rural, about 3 hours from a big city and 60 minutes from a fast food joint or walmart to give you an indication of how rural. Last year there was one fuel truck that was pushed back for a week and about a hundred people went without fuel service for that week or had to come to the next town over and get fuel. Most people keep their tanks around full if they can afford it because again, we're rural, better to have a full tank of gas then nothing and not be able to react to whatever situation happens. Last year it happened once. This year already it has happened 7 times, and it wasn't just the one gas station either, it was all of them.

It's interesting to walk up to the pumps and have them say premium only, it's all we got left, or use that last pump, it's the only one with fuel in it. Now we live close enough to the store (about two miles) that we could walk to get our essentials, but we would truly be stuck if fuel were to run out and although people do personal gardens there isn't much in the way of agriculture outside of cows and chickens around here.

I have to say I cringe every time I see the gas station is low or out of fuel because it never used to happen and now it's happening at least once a month.

Volkswagon has been developing a 2 passenger vehicle that gets between 250-315 miles per gallon for the past ten years. It's a hybrid and is supposed to hit the market this year for 25k. I have to say the next vehicle I buy, if I have the luxury of affording that kind of pricetag. Would be one of those or something like it.

The mainstream news are making absolutely ZERO reports that I can find of actual gas shortages here in the USA. I say this because for more than two years now, I have been doing a Google News search about once a week for the terms "gas shortage" and "fueld shortage" etc. ALL my return hits involve foriegn nations only. Almost never does Google News give me any hits involving the USA.

And then when I read your post here today, I tried to search for "gas+station+Utah" to see if anything came back. Nothing. I tweaked the word choices in my search. Still nothing.

I now have to choose between either a) disregarding you as a liar (or sadly mistaken) or else b) disregarding the MSM as a bunch of incompetants. And I choose the latter.

For the American press to ignore this is shameful.

UK Gov taskforce: Global oil demand will outstrip supply in 5 yeas or less (so it's time to prepare)

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