Will 99-Cent E-Books Destroy The World As We Know It?

dgaughran

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There are a lot of people getting worked up about cheap e-books. But I am here today to tell you the sky isn’t falling.

Let’s rewind.

When an author or publisher uploads their work to Amazon (and the rest of the e-tailers), they are free to choose the price that they sell at. With most companies, the minimum price you can sell at is 99 cents. Until recently, only a small portion of writers were choosing to sell their work at this price, mostly new writers, without an established audience, hoping to build a following.

On paper, that’s a good strategy, although other writers have complained that this was a race to the bottom, and that they were being priced out of the market.

At first, Amazon paid a 35% royalty across the board, so authors were free to experiment with a variety of price points, and find the level that maximised their revenues. Many authors were pricing at $1.99 and $2.99, comfortable that they were still significantly cheaper than trade-published books, but happy that they were making enough sales at a reasonable royalty rate.

Many would run a sale at 99 cent for a week. The increase in volume would make up for the lower price as fans of bargain books spread the word, and the authors climbed the sales rankings. Once they had done so, they would raise the price again, hoping that increased visibility would hold their position.

In January 2010, Amazon announced that they would double the royalties to 70%, if authors price their work between $2.99 and $9.99.

Predictably, there was a rush to the $2.99 price point, as it was the lowest price where you could gain the higher royalty rate, but not too expensive to dissuade all impulse buyers and bargain hunters. Writers could now make over $2 a book at this price, which should offset any lost sales from increasing their price.

Many of those who had written a series still kept the first book at 99 cent as a kind of ‘loss leader’, attempting to lure readers in, hoping they would then continue with the series, paying $2.99 or more for the rest. Amanda Hocking had huge success with this exact strategy, selling around 1 million e-books, netting her approximately $2 million, in less than a year, and many writers adopted her pricing policy.

John Locke changed all of that.

When Locke looked at the traditional publishing market, he thought it would be next-to-impossible to crack. Even if he did beat the odds and get a deal, the competition in the marketplace, and especially in his genre, was fierce. He would have to convince agents, editors, booksellers, and if he got that far, readers, that he was as good as James Patterson. Not an easy sell.

But when Amazon launched their digital publishing platform, he saw an opportunity. He wrote a series of thrillers and decided to price the whole lot at 99 cent. He wanted to be the greatest 99 cent writer in the world. He figured that now James Patterson, selling at $9.99, would have to prove he was 10 times better than John Locke.

As with many self-publisher success stories, he didn’t sell much at first. By September 2010, he had made a grand total of $47. That’s not a typo. But as many self-published writers noticed, something happened around November last year, and sales took off.

In the first two month of 2011, he sold over 300,000 e-books at 99 cent, netting him over $100,000. In the figures just released for March, he went bigger again, selling 369,000 e-books in just one month.

Clearly, John Locke’s strategy was that the increased volume of sales would outweigh receiving the lower royalty rate. He’s only making 35 cents a book, but he is selling a hell of a lot of books. Many authors decided to try and replicate his success, and now a glut of writers selling at 99 cents.

Many publishers and trade-published writers have decried this, arguing that it devalues the whole concept of what a novel is worth. And they have a point.

Readers are now being conditioned to pay a lot less for books. Trade publishing houses are fighting hard to hold the upper line. Most of them are pricing their e-books at around $9.99, and while some are selling cheaper than that, there are significant numbers of new releases being priced up to $14.99.

And because Amazon still has the power to heavily discount hardback and paperback releases, we are often left with the counter-intuitive situation where trade-published e-books are more expensive than hardbacks. Readers have reacted badly, giving one-star reviews on these books, even if they haven’t purchased them.

Some self-published writers are throwing their hands in the air too. In genres such as high fantasy, historical fiction, and literary fiction, where writers tend not to be as prolific as, say, thriller writers, they feel like they cannot compete, as they don’t have as many titles where they can sell in volume and reduce price.

A few industry commentators have declared the end of paid-for content, and that writers will have to get used to giving their work away for free and finding other income streams, just as musicians often make more money from touring and merchandise.

I don’t agree, and I don’t really see what the fuss is about. Trade publishers have been selling surplus books to discount booksellers for years. I discovered Michael Chabon in a $5 store, and both he, and his publisher, seem to be doing alright.

And just as there have always been high-end publishers, regular publishers, and discount publishers, there has always been dollar theatres and day-old bread. That bread is probably fine, and John Locke is said to be a hell of a writer for 99 cents, but discounted goods don’t necessarily crowd out the rest of the marketplace.

It’s all about positioning and perception. If you make the reader think that your work is overpriced at $1.99 or $2.99 (and poor covers, editing, formatting, openings, descriptions, and marketing will certainly help with this) then yes, you will struggle to compete with cheaper books.

However, if you do everything in your power to make your book look like it came from one of the big New York publishers, if you run a clever marketing campaign, if you have professionally designed covers, a great opening that readers can sample, descriptions that will hook people in, and if your work has been professionally edited, you can price your work at $2.99 and higher, and not only survive, but thrive.

Michael Sullivan is a great example of this. He wrote a six-book fantasy series called The Riyria Revelations. Go and look at one of his books on Amazon. Together with his wife and publicist, Robin Sullivan, they set up a company, Ridan Publishing, and published Michael’s books. Everything was done with the highest level of professionalism. To me, these books look as good as anything coming from a trade publisher.

Because of this approach, they have been able to price the books at $4.99 (that’s a $3.49 per-book cut for the author), and they have sold truckloads. This is because when your book looks like it came from one of the big publishers, $4.99 is a bargain, and people love bargains. They were even able to price the fifth book in the series at $6.99, and readers were happy to pay it.

The lesson here is this. You need to decide what kind of publisher you are going to be. If you have a large backlist, or if you are very prolific, or if you think you can stand out in the crowd at 99 cents, then that could be a viable strategy for you.

However, if you are less prolific, or if you are writing in a genre that hasn’t fully taken off yet, or if you can put the time (and some money) into positioning your book as a quality purchase by making it look as good as anything coming from New York, a quality purchase rather than an impulse purchase, there is no need to fear the 99 cent e-book.

There are no guarantees with any strategy, but remember this: there are still a ton of people paying $14.99 for Michael Connolly. Why? Because they think it’s worth it.
 

Osiander

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I think it's unlikely that the $0.99 (or even the free) books will hurt pricing, for the simple reason that the book market isn't homogeneous. If I can get orange juice for less, I'll take the cheaper carton. It's just a commodity product, more or less. But in no way is a cheap meal at McDonalds going to threaten the viability of a Michelin star restaurant or vice versa. They're both food, but they aim at such different markets that what they serve and how they price have no effect on each other.

Where you find books that are also just commodities (e.g. in sections of the romance market, one book is as good as another for very hard core readers), you might see a general price point emerge for both published and self published books.

For other sections of the market, self publishers might find they're better off pricing their books higher, rather than lower, in order to attract a different category of readers.

There will be many other people for whom a higher price point is reassuring, as a mark of quality. The book may not actually be higher quality than one priced at $0.99, but it will be often enough that there will be readers who actually avoid the very cheap books.
 

gothicangel

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Well, I was in in Waterstone's this morning and they had several offers like 'buy one, get one for £1' and 'spend £20 and get this book for 99p.'

So I think the brick and mortar store are beginning to fight back.
 

gothicangel

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There will be many other people for whom a higher price point is reassuring, as a mark of quality. The book may not actually be higher quality than one priced at $0.99, but it will be often enough that there will be readers who actually avoid the very cheap books.

Yeah, this is so me. I won't go near the bargain bins.
 

defyalllogic

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I don't think anything will destroy the world as we know it aside from viruses and radiation...

Also, if I can pay .99 cents for unregulated anything or 4.99 for edited and screened awesomeness, I'd rather pay 4.99.

I think the most important factor is being able to screen for quality and not feeling like you're wasting your time hunting and pecking for something good in a sea of spam, someone's best effort, et al.

I'm sure with people like AH, others heard about the book form people who took the time to read it and share it and review it. But surely it wasn't that a million people found it in the mess of searching.

Also, once people are willing to pay for Work by Author, there's no need to keep the price point at entry level anymore.

Until we have a way to better screen what's available in the eBook marketplace, people will keep coming back to the paper books for the reliability they offer.
 
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dgaughran

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Excellent points from everyone. I agree that books aren't homogenous, and also, that there are a large group of readers who won't trust anything below a certain price point.

And I should have pointed out that Michael Sullivan isn't the only example of a self-published writer achieving success at higher price points. Katie Klein is the Kindle Romance Top 100 right now at $4.69, and I believe Amanda Brice has done the same with similar prices. I'm sure there are lots more.
 

dgaughran

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I should also mention, as others have said elsewhere, that there is a lifetime's reading of free, great books available for the Kindle, so if price were the only factor affecting a customer's decision to purchase, nobody would sell anything.
 

shadowwalker

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I'm cheap. And cynical. I tend to figure I'm going to get exactly what I pay for. So I'd rather spend $10 on 2 books I know with 95% certainty will be 'professional' versus spending it on 10 books that might be nearly impossible to read just from a technical POV. I might, if I've heard good things about the author or the book, buy the cheap one, but that's the only way I would. Or if I wanted something "quick and dirty" to occupy myself on a bus ride (if nothing else, I can bitch in my head about all the typos ;)).

As others have mentioned, it's not like buying milk or bread. One brand versus another doesn't change the fact it's milk or bread. What we're paying for with books is the author and the author's talent and skill. Now we're talking about hiring a handyman versus a skilled artisan. And to me, anyway, they should (and do) charge accordingly.
 

pandora1983

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I should also mention, as others have said elsewhere, that there is a lifetime's reading of free, great books available for the Kindle, so if price were the only factor affecting a customer's decision to purchase, nobody would sell anything.

Ive got a few hundred freebies on my kindle..but I still pay 8 bucks a pop for my fav authors. I see both sides of the coin, but I think, while it has drastically changed the market, its not dying.
 
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jimbro

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...But in no way is a cheap meal at McDonalds going to threaten the viability of a Michelin star restaurant or vice versa. ...

We're seeing this exact same issue in the Computer Games industry. Some makers of $50 games are claiming that the plethora of $0.99 games are "ruining" the industry.

See here for a (biased) discussion:
http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20...ar-free-market-dont-know-how-to-compete.shtml

I don't believe it for games or for (e-)books.

For some customers your book is only worth 99 cents, for others, it's worth much more.

Effective discriminating pricing isn't here yet, so you have to charge everyone the same price. John Locke's experiment suggest that low-price/high volume is at least as profitable as high-price/low-volume.

If you are making the same profit, would you rather have more or fewer readers?
 

dgaughran

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Interesting.

I wonder if the 'Hocking' price model would work in another way, which could be useful for those who don't tend to write a series, i.e. higher price for new work, gradually discount older work after sales peak and drop some.
 

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We're seeing this exact same issue in the Computer Games industry. Some makers of $50 games are claiming that the plethora of $0.99 games are "ruining" the industry.

The funny part is that I don't remember the last time I paid more than $5 for a '$50 game'. I almost exclusively buy games in sales, because they just aren't worth $50 to me; if anything I see many of the things companies spend lots of money on like voice acting and cutscenes as reducing the value of the game (I want to play a game, not watch a bad CG movie).

As for books, I suspect that ebooks are eventually going to be exclusively in the $0.99 to $4.99 range, but a good book at $4.99 should still sell. I can't see fans of big writers like Stephen King saying 'oh no, the new book is $4.99, I'm not paying that much when I could buy a book from someone I've never heard of for $0.99'.
 
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This argument is overblown, and has been for a long time. The 99 cent price point is not a threat to anyone. It's good for loss leaders for a series. It's good for new writers trying to build an audience. And it's good for the occasional sale or discount, or even for writers who are only producing discount-bin quality work.

But independent writers who are finding success are, as you pointed out, already raising their prices. Another good example is Zoe Winters, who was selling at 0.99-2.99, and now sells at 4.99. But then, her covers look *better* than most corporate PNR books, she has strong attention to detail on her packaging and writing. She's a pro - acts like it, and charges like it.

In general, I think we'll see successful indie writers settle at the 2.99-4.99 range, with the 0.99 bracket dominated by special sales, short stories, some novelettes, new writers, and failed attempts, with the occasional superstar like we've seen using the low price to leverage big success.

What remains to be seen is how the large publishers will adapt to this (small publishers are already adapting by dropping their prices to around $5 give or take a bit). If a large publisher cannot survive in a world where more than half the sales are digital, and ebooks over $6 don't sell very well, they will probably have a rough time with this transition. So transitioning their business methods and infrastructure to a model which works at those prices will be essential.

As for the writers complaining about not being as prolific...my answer would probably be "write more". ;) Productivity is based on hours put in. Put in more hours. ;) That, and - at the 99 cent price, a writer gets 35 cents from Amazon and 60 cents from any of the sites Smashwords distributes to (including B&N). If you guess that maybe averages to 40 cents a book (which will probably go up as B&N, Kobo, and Apple continue to gain steam), that's half or more than half what they'd get from selling an $8 paperback via corporate publishing.

I think in the very near future, if not already, selling twice as many 99 cent ebooks as you would $8 paperbacks will be simple. (again, assuming your work is good enough to have seen print as a mass market paperback, and that the ebook packaging is good)
 
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What remains to be seen is how the large publishers will adapt to this (small publishers are already adapting by dropping their prices to around $5 give or take a bit). If a large publisher cannot survive in a world where more than half the sales are digital, and ebooks over $6 don't sell very well, they will probably have a rough time with this transition. So transitioning their business methods and infrastructure to a model which works at those prices will be essential.

Some things to think about:

1. The major costs for mass market/commercial publishing all take place before the book goes to the printer. Often, the single largest line-item cost is the advance to the author.

2. It doesn't actually cost less to produce an ebook until the point in the workflow where the file goes to the printer, or to the ebook production staff.

3. Authors are generally paid /have their royalties calculated based on cover price.

4. Baen books, who have been selling ebooks since c. 2000, and giving them away since then as well, has had enormous success selling e-arcs forked to ebook formats at the galley stage, for c. 15.00 for several years.

5. There are publishers who pay authors 50% of ebook cover price after the fees for the transaction system (a dollar or so) are deducted from the book price; they don't pay advances. They do have production staff, and professional editors. I know some genre ebook publishers do this; the one I know most about is a non-fiction technical book publisher.
 
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jimbro

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...I can't see fans of big writers like Stephen King saying 'oh no, the new book is $4.99, I'm not paying that much when I could buy a book from someone I've never heard of for $0.99'.

Another excellent point.

Authors need to create a rapport/relationship/reputation with their readers.
 

Diana_Rajchel

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Purely as a consumer: I recently tried an e-reader, and read a Jeff Lindsay novel on it. I'm hooked. I can see, in the long run, actually spending MORE on books no matter the prices range with an E-reader. I've curtailed a lot of my spending over years as I use my library more and I shop used books, because that's what my pleasure budget can handle. The low pricing of e-books allows a certain "impulse spending" that I can see doing; I've already had to really watch myself with Itunes because of that.
 

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The low pricing of e-books allows a certain "impulse spending" that I can see doing; I've already had to really watch myself with Itunes because of that.

That's another good point; going back to games, in the Christmas sale on Steam I spent about $60 buying fifteen or twenty discounted games that looked interesting and so far I've played five or six of them. I probably will find time to play the others one day, but the price was low enough that if I never do then I won't have to worry about it too much.

At $0.99 I'm guessing a lot of people are buying ebooks that will go onto their 'to read one day' list and may never actually be read.
 
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I am finding myself jarred by price some. The other day, someone on LinkedIn made a comment which reminded me I had not yet read "Ark"; I enjoyed "Flood" (not the best novel ever, but decent), and had meant to buy Ark. I popped over to Amazon to see if it was on Kindle.

It was. $11.99. Hardcover for $9.98, but I didn't want the hardcover. I am preferring to read fiction on Kindle now (which is HUGELY odd, eight months ago if you'd asked me, I'd have said that would never happen). But I'm pretty much unwilling to pay $11.99 for an ebook unless it's something I *need* (professionally). Not interested in paying that much when there's plenty of books in the buck to five bucks range I can read.

So I passed on Ark. For now, at least. Which is a little frustrating, because it's a book I would have read, had it been half as much in the ebook format.


It's not a case where someone who is a King fan will buy a 99 cent book instead of the next $4.99 King novel (although they might do both); a $4.99 price is not high enough to be a barrier. But I think even King will see sales drop a lot at anything over $9.99.

There's a reason Konrath is periodically outselling King in ebooks, and Locke outselling Patterson in ebooks. It ain't because they have more fans. ;)
 

MartinD

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I've read Locke and I think he's underpricing his work at 99 cents. However, I wouldn't have read his work if the first sample wasn't fun and interesting.

Price is only one component for me. At a bookstore, I read the first few pages of a book to see if I like it. On-line, I use the sample feature for the same purpose.

And for the readers who have decided, in advance, that all under-dollar e-books are bad? That's like deciding that all paperbacks must sell for $9.99 or they're worthless. I can pick up all of Locke's novels for less than the price of a Danielle Steele hardcover -- proof, to me, that the corporate-imprint doesn't ensure quality.
 

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And for the readers who have decided, in advance, that all under-dollar e-books are bad? That's like deciding that all paperbacks must sell for $9.99 or they're worthless. I can pick up all of Locke's novels for less than the price of a Danielle Steele hardcover -- proof, to me, that the corporate-imprint doesn't ensure quality.

I'm one of the people who avoids low-priced books like the plague. I went through a stage a few weeks ago of downloading multiple samples from all over the place and reading them. I haven't read anything of Locke, but everything I read turned out to be woeful. They just weren't worth the time and effort of reading them.

If someone I trusted recommended a $0.99 book, of course I'd give it a look. But until that happens, those low price points scream "warning, warning" to me.
 
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I don't avoid low priced books, but I don't buy them willy-nilly either.

Examples from my own experiences...

Last night, I was writing and had TweetDeck open, got an alert that Amy Rose Davis had just published her novella, "Servant of Dreams". Now, I got to read some of Amy's work (she writes fantasy) in an anthology she and I both have stories in. I liked her work. So I popped to TweetDeck, retweeted the message, clicked the Amazon link and immediately bought the 99 cent book. I'm partway through; her writing is good, imaginative, and I have no regrets buying it. I'll probably review it when I'm done (favorable, so far).

I read about BV Larson on Konrath's blog a couple of months ago, and snagged his "Swarm" for 2.99 recently. I had the plug from his guest blog on Konrath's site; but I read the sample first anyway. Liked it, bought it, immediately bought the sequel, and will buy the third when he's done. (Incidentally, if you like military SF, worth peeking at, although his science is fudgy in some spots the story is well written.) Haven't read his fantasy yet; again, will probably sample first.

I bought a pair of Amanda Hocking's books (first of her Trylle and Hollowland; not into vampire romance). Didn't buy the rest of Trylle, although it was decent writing, it was too fluffy-romance for me really. Will buy the Hollowland sequel w/out sampling, when it comes out, even if it's 2.99. Would probably NOT buy it for more than $5.

But see, I think that's how good books get around. Readers sample something, like it, buy it, and spread the word. I think it's *always* been like that, even with print - but now, we have more efficient ways to sample, and better ways to get the word around, and easier ways to buy.

I'm sure some readers just grab 99 cent books because they're cheap; but I think most readers are really only grabbing 99 cent books that have been recommended to them, or that they read a sample of and liked it, or that were written by an author they liked. And most of those readers will probably pay $3-5 for an author they like just as easily as they will pay 99 cents.
 
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I intend to self-publish Reprobate at 3.99. And lower the price to 2.99 for the holiday season when the sequel [Peccadillo] comes out. After the holiday season, both will be 3.99 again.

I don't do the 0.99 books, not even with the first of the series, because I think 2.99 is the lowest price I'd ask for a 100,000 word suspense novel.

99 cents is good for novellas and short stories.
 

kuwisdelu

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I'd probably avoid $0.99 books unless it's an author I know is very good. There's definitely a lot of noise, but in general, there's often a correlation between price and quality.

One question I'd consider is whether such low pricing hurt books with a limited audience or niche appeal? Would it work better for genre fiction or mainstream? What about literary fiction?
 

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Just some random thoughts as one who's been on both sides of the Kindle fence--with a book I'm just offering at $0.99 (self-published) and another (from a small publisher) at $6.99. Disclaimer: Presently, neither's setting the world of sales on fire, so take my thoughts for what they are or aren't worth.

As a method of sales, I'm not sure $0.99 by itself would be enough to do the job anymore, if it ever was. Too many have jumped on the strategy for it alone to distinugish books sufficiently. Just check out the Amazon threads. Part of me feels it might partially be a myth too--did the Hocking novels sell more because of the price or because of the price, marketing (and market) and quality? Is one thing ever truly distinct or part of strategy greater than the sum of its parts? Though it's been less than a day with my $0.99 book, so I can't really speculate much on my non-sales thus far, I think no matter what the price is, the emphasis has to be on branding, marketing and delivering a quality product.

There is another market out there, though--that of the amateur author (like me, honestly) just wanting to share a book cheaply with an audience pool he otherwise might not have access to. Amazon knows this. Maybe the real market winner here isn't the writer or the reader, but Amazon itself.