The gov't is out of money! It's spending money it doesn't have!

Bartholomew

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I'm very sick of hearing these phrases, especially on this forum, where I've been utterly spoiled for most of my adult life by outstanding thinkers writing eloquently. Since I haven't really seen anybody else explode in a frothing internet rage at the use of the phrases in this thread's title, I'm going to.

The government is broke because that's really how it ought to be.

(A - The USA uses a fiat currency. This means that the USD is worth only what we're willing, as a culture, to exchange for it. It is not backed by any substance of value, aside from the idea that much of what we do should be compensated. My writing benefits society by offering distraction and information, and that's worth $x of milk, bread, and bandwidth, as determined by me and my boss.

(B - The Fed directly controls how much of our fiat currency is in circulation and how much is not. To control this, the Fed changes certain interest rates for the banks that borrow from them. The amount of money in circulation is constantly increasing. This isn't really a bad thing, barring a complete destabilization of people's faith in the currency and in society. Neither seems likely. Inflation has problems, sure, but so does having a "strong" dollar. When we could buy a carton of milk for 25 cents, it meant that our exports were outrageously expensive, and this was hellish for anyone who made a product to sell overseas (trouble finding buyers), or on markets outside of the US that wanted to buy American-made products (because, holy shit, if the beer is 25 cents USD a bottle, and the equivalent beer in France costs a E2.50 because of the difference in the strength of the currency, no one is going to import US beer.) and thus give us money.

(C - If the US government ran at a surplus right now, it would mean that we still had a bad economy, and that the government wasn't spending money to try to offset it.

(D - Most economists, people trained to think abstractly about the huge amounts of money needed to make our society function, don't say that running at a deficit is bad. They might say the deficit spending is stupid because it's being spent on X instead of Y, but they don't say that the government needs to stop spending.

(Dd Why? For the same reason that, when people start hoarding their money en masse, it plays hell on the economy. A stimulated economy is the result of people trusting the fiat currency enough to spend a fair portion of their income. If the government were to just take a machete and start slashing the budget, as people on this forum occasionally suggest, there would be social disorder on a scale that the US has not seen in centuries.

Twenty-somethings who can't go to college because they can't afford it, and the government won't help them, don't grow up to love the system. They grow up thinking about how nice it would be if the system rolled over and died in a fire. Thirty-somethings who can't get a loan to start their own business may very well hunker down, pull themselves up by the bootstraps, and eventually be able to afford their own company outright - but then when if their business fails, they didn't default on a loan, they defaulted on a life's worth of saving money. That doesn't make a happy citizen.

Government deficit spending is why there are not people with pitchforks and torches when our economy rolls into a recession.

(E - The problem with deficit spending isn't the debt. Debt makes the world go 'round when you have a fiat currency. The idea that we are socially obligated to pay back money we barrow is part of what makes it not all fall apart.

(Ee - When the government owes people money, it's OK. They can print more. (They can also collect taxes, but no one likes taxes, so our politicians tend to avoid imposing new ones.) The Fed deliberately increases or decreases the amount of money in circulation all the time. This isn't bad. The government represents the people, and the idea behind We the People. Since a fiat currency is only powered by the idea that the work of one specialist (say, a Fry Cook) is worth the work of another specialist (say, a famous musician), it doesn't really matter too much (because inflation can be a problem, just like having a strong currency can be a problem) if the government makes sure there's enough money in the system for everyone to safely raise and lower prices.

(F - The problem with deficit spending isn't that the government is spending money it doesn't have. It's the government. It's the source of money, because we told it to be. (That China, Japan, and other nations who might not have our best interests at heart own a portion of our debt is a problem, but that's beyond the scope of my rant.)

Think about the phrase, "spending money it doesn't have." Doesn't make any sense. Because that's not really what's going on. The government being in the red, and a restaurant being in the red are completely different animals. The government does not operate so that it can turn a profit. This is meaningless to an entity that can print money. The government operates (in part) so that turning a profit is meaningful to its citizens.

The problem is that deficit spending in an attempt to fix a bad economy needs to be focused on, well, the economy. People need to be able to borrow money. We've already covered why. The problem is that money needs to be spent in very specific ways to fix a bad economy. Economists have many, many opinions about where this money should go. That said, politicians control this, not economists. So wherever the money should go, it tends to go to companies that supported our representatives, senators, and governors in the last election. This is sometimes called “Pork.” A real attempt at fixing our economy would involve forcing politicians to attend an hour’s worth of lecture about how economy works every few days. (Side note: at the very least, economy majors would have a secure job.)

The issue of the national budget and national debt is significantly more complicated than “We’re out of money!” or “cut spending lol.” The government is not running out of money. It has not run out of money. Deficit isn’t the best gosh-darned thing on earth, but it isn’t innately horrible the way it is for individuals and businesses. Huge government debt is not an indicator of social horrors to come, unless our officials actually slashed the budget in the manner people often suggest. It’s an artifact of how our system works.
 
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blacbird

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Just as a point: Businesses work on deficits all the time. Big businesses, small businesses. My wife and I own a local retail business that is heavily season-dependent, with November and December being the months that (we hope) keep the annual income in the black. But to get to those months, we have to go in the red to obtain products during the first ten months of the year. We borrow from banks, we order products on credit from suppliers, we charge things. This is emphatically NOT an unusual condition in a capitalist economy.

Anybody who thinks private businesses don't borrow capital for future operation is a dope.
 

PinkAmy

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Maybe they should have thought of that before they went to war for false reasons in Iraq and not only didn't fund it, but spent billions and billions of dollars on tax breaks for the rich.
 

Don

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Just as a point: Businesses work on deficits all the time. Big businesses, small businesses. My wife and I own a local retail business that is heavily season-dependent, with November and December being the months that (we hope) keep the annual income in the black. But to get to those months, we have to go in the red to obtain products during the first ten months of the year. We borrow from banks, we order products on credit from suppliers, we charge things. This is emphatically NOT an unusual condition in a capitalist economy.

Anybody who thinks private businesses don't borrow capital for future operation is a dope.
But private businesses that run a deficit for decades eventually run out of suckers willing to finance them at a loss.
 

Don

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A dollar of debt isn't just a number. It's a promise to provide goods in exchange for that dollar in the future. The government is making promises the economy can't keep.
 

regdog

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The government is out of money and in debt. :e2shrug: So am I.
 

Shadow_Ferret

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Supposedly we were in the "worst economic crisis in the history of man" shortly after Reagan and the first Bush left office. A few quick fixes by Clinton brought us back to a SURPLUS (which the second Bush squandered). I have no doubt, that if we get someone fiscally intelligent into office, this mess will again be cleared up in no time.
 

Rufus Coppertop

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The government is making promises the economy can't keep.

Plot Device said:
Ooooh! Don! This one's a keeper! :)

What Plot Device said.

I don't pretend to understand economics but if running up a deficit means that future generations have to pay for the economic mismanagement of government today, that's not something I feel is fair.
 
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Plot Device

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Supposedly we were in the "worst economic crisis in the history of man" shortly after Reagan and the first Bush left office. A few quick fixes by Clinton brought us back to a SURPLUS (which the second Bush squandered). I have no doubt, that if we get someone fiscally intelligent into office, this mess will again be cleared up in no time.


This assertion about Clinton being some sort of financial genius is only true insofar as his clever employment of VERY creative bookkeeping --so creative that I'm sure it made many a Hollywood accountant envious.

The last US president to present a set of HONEST books to the American people was Eisenhower. Then Kennedy stepped in, and he didn't like the look of certain figures on the balance sheet, so he was the first "editor of the truth" in what has become a long tradition of US presidents creatively scuttling select numbers from the master tabulation.

And then, when Obama stepped in 2 years ago, he said "Enough!" and actually aspired to present an honest balance sheet for the first time in nearly 50 years. It was a disatrous mess when he dared for such transparency. The naked truth of those numbers was just far too much for the American people --and our lawmakers on Capitol Hill-- to bear.
 

icerose

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And then, when Obama stepped in 2 years ago, he said "Enough!" and actually aspired to present an honest balance sheet for the first time in nearly 50 years. It was a disatrous mess when he dared for such transparency. The naked truth of those numbers was just far too much for the American people --and our lawmakers on Capitol Hill-- to bear.

And yet he still accumulated trillions in debt...
 

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I don't believe the war is as bad for the economy as many believe. The US has fought in plenty of wars in the past that didn't hurt the economy. Hell, WWII is part of what helped stop the Great Depression. Though back then it was factories in the US that was producing the military hardware, thus is meant jobs for people.

Though there is certainly some overspending in the military budget. Which is why I think the Pentagon should be the ones in charge of managing the military budget, not politicians.

To me one of the biggest problem has been the tax cuts. You don't fix the deficit and pay off the debt by cutting taxes to industries that were already making record profits and to people that make more than two or three times the national average. Think of it this way, a business isn't going to grow and prosper by cutting it's revenue and then releasing employees to make up for it. All the Bush Tax Cuts have done is take money from futures generations.
 

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I think that the argument made fails to qualify and differentiate between, reasonable, controlled and manageable debt vs. wholesale lunacy and bankruptcy. Just saying.
 

Monkey

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Torrance...

I assume THIS is the lunacy you mean? 'Cause, yanno, it's bigger than the bailouts by quite a bit. And, of course, the bailouts are beginning to be repaid...
 
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shawkins

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What happens if the Chinese suddenly want to cash in on all their US Treasury bonds?

PD, I'm guessing that wasn't exactly what you meant to say. It's not legally possible.

A dollar of debt isn't just a number. It's a promise to provide goods in exchange for that dollar in the future. The government is making promises the economy can't keep.

I recognize that that's an article of faith with you, and as such you feel no need to support it. I'll acknowledge that it's inside the realm of possibility--countries do go bankrupt, empires do fall. However, I don't think we've reached the point of no return. The amount of debt we're carrying isn't good, but U.S. public debt as a percentage of GDP was actually slightly higher in 1950 and went on to get better. Doom and ruin is not a foregone conclusion, just a realistic possibility.

Personally, I'm inclined to think there are some sound reasons to be optimistic.

First, while the government, bankers and citizens of the U.S. are capable of acts of startling stupidity, it turns out they are capable of other things as well. No one is more surprised than me, but there it is.

I think that the crisis was handled VERY well in 2008. Paulson and Geithner, to their credit, recognized just how bad things had gotten and made some spectacularly unpopular moves despite the fact that there was a presidential election just weeks away. I think their intervention almost certainly prevented a much, Much, MUCH worse outcome. If the finanical industry had collapsed, much of the non-financial industry would have followed. Only the most asinine onlooker could conceivably think that that would have been anything but a nightmare for the U.S. and ultimately the entire world.

Bush, to his credit, did not prevent Paulson and Geithner from acting. I absolutely loathe Bush, but in this particular case I'm actually sort of impressed. It had to be a tough call for him to make. Even Congress eventually did the right thing, despite correctly concluding that doing so would cost them dearly at the polls. So, kudos to everyone involved for biting the bullet and doing what needed to be done at the height of the crisis. This was an instance where government worked.

Once the worst of the crisis was past, encouraging signs of good sense continued to manifest. The U.S. citizenry has been getting its act together financially. Also, the Financial Reform Bill passed in July 2010 had more teeth than I expected. Specifically:

  • The derivatives market is now more or less subject to regulation. That wasn't true three years ago. This is a good thing.
  • Hedge funds are now required to disclose a lot more information than they used to, and are subject to some regulation. Previously they were completely unregulated, and entitled to operate entirely in secret.
  • The executive compensation provisions of the act are largely for show, but one of them does provide for pull-back of compensation previously granted to the executives in the case of outright accounting fraud. Sounds obvious, but until now nothing like that existed.
  • There are monetary incentives for whistleblowers. That one I just LOVE.
And others. It's a long act, and it leaves a good chunk of the specifics in the hands of regulatory agencies. Also, how well some of its provisions are going to be enforced is yet to be determined. For instance, the Volcker rule may or may not[SUP]1[/SUP] not put limits on the sort of proprietary trading that was key to the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. That sort of trading is phenomenally profitable when it works.

But on the whole I'm both pleased with and surprised by how both the American people and the government have gotten their act together in the wake of the crisis. I don't have any insight into whether the financial industry is doing anything different or not. My first thought would be 'not,' but we really won't know until the next crisis.

So, point 1 in the case for optimism is that everyone handled the actual crisis surprisingly well. While it's true that the American people, the U.S. government, and the U.S. banking industry did some shit-stupid stuff in 2001-2008 that left us all in a hell of a mess, it appears that we are also capable of doing things that are not shit-stupid. I find that encouraging.

I think that the argument made fails to qualify and differentiate between, reasonable, controlled and manageable debt vs. wholesale lunacy and bankruptcy. Just saying.

A fair point.


I'll ditto everything Bartholomew said about fiat currency in the OP. I'd like to frame my response with the following: in my view, issuing money by fiat is essentially making a bet that economic expansion will provide value to the imaginary dollars being pumped into the system. This was an unusually large bet, and it will probably take an unusually long time to see which way it ultimately turns out. However, there are encouraging signs that the economy may yet catch up to the dollars it is represented by. Things haven't improved dramatically, but they have improved.
  • The stock market is trending up (perhaps a bit too enthusiastically for my taste, but up is better than down).
  • Unemployment seems to be getting better. I'm of the opinion that it has peaked and improvements will continue.
  • Valuations in the residential real estate market are reasonable (maybe even a bit low), and everyone seems to be predicting that the oversupply problem in residential real estate should be behind us by 2012.
  • Commercial real estate still has the worst ahead of it, I think, but you could make the argument that while cheap commerical real estate sucks for commercial real estate investors, it has a fortunate side effect of fostering entrepreneurial ventures.
  • On the subjective side, I'm of the opinion that crisis fatigue is setting in. By that I mean that, regardless of whether the underlying numbers really do support optimism, businesses are so sick of being in defensive mode that they're starting to take chances that they wouldn't have in 2009 or 2010--hiring, expansion, replacing aging computer systems, etc.
So, point 2 in the case for optimism is that while things haven't gotten a whole lot better yet, it's reasonable to expect that they will do so in the next few (2-6?) years. I would be very surprised to see them get a whole lot worse. Too many things seem to be trending upward for that to be a realistic assessment, IMO. Admittedly, if something else blows up while we're sorting the current mess out, we might very well screwed.

If all that proves out, in about 2016 the question will become whether the newly reinvigorated tax base is used to pay down the loans we're taking out now or whether it will be squandered on some sort of idiocy. I don't think that answer is knowable at this point.

[SUP]1[/SUP]The Dodd-Frank act passed along party lines. Since the Republicans got back into power they've been working overtime to undermine it. Also, a lot of the specifics of enforcement were not written into the act but rather delegated to regulators. For those reasons, it remains to be seen how enthusiastically some parts of the act will be enforced.
 

Bartholomew

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Bart, riddle me this:

What happens if the Chinese suddenly want to cash in on all their US Treasury bonds?

I'm not sure.

But again, I'm not an economist. Your guess is as good as mine.

We still wouldn't run out of money, though. :)
 
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Plot Device

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Dammit, Shadow! Now I have to get all "Peak Oil" on you! :D

I don't believe the war is as bad for the economy as many believe. The US has fought in plenty of wars in the past that didn't hurt the economy. Hell, WWII is part of what helped stop the Great Depression. Though back then it was factories in the US that was producing the military hardware, thus is meant jobs for people.

Though there is certainly some overspending in the military budget. Which is why I think the Pentagon should be the ones in charge of managing the military budget, not politicians.


War brings the transfer of HUGE amounts of money out of the US government into the private sector via military contracts. It has been said that 'war is a racket" and this is why becasue it allows private companies to rob the Treasury (and the taxpayers) for their own gain, all while young men and women die. But war doesn't actually HELP the economy as far as "NET growth" (which is the most critical aspect of this whole argument), it merely churns up a huge shit-load of activity in the private sector which benefits workers in the short-term via all kinds of current-day jobs. The only REAL way to cause "net growth" in Economy "A" is for Economy "A" to sell --at a profit-- goods and servcies to an outside economy (sell at a profit to other nations in Economies "B" and "C" and "D" etc). Unless money comes in from the outside, we're merely cannibalizing ourselves

WWII triggered a shit-load of internal activity within the borders of this nation --EVERYONE was working! That was a welcome relief after the endless unemployment and poverty of the Great Depression. But that was merely money leaving the US Treasury and flowing into the hands of huge companies which then paid US employees to work for them. It was therefore nothing but Economy "A" money staying completely within Economy "A" therefore the economy had no "NET growth" --not until the years AFTER the war. That's because AFTER the war, the rest of the world was so obliterated by the war that there were almost no functioning factories anywhere in Europe or Asia or South America or Africa. All our factories here in North America were still perfecty intact, very modernized, and fully staffed with capable employees. We additionally had loads of natural resources still in the ground within or nation's borders, including our own wood and iron and copper --and most especially our own oil and coal and natural gas to keep those factories running. To top it off, we had a frigging awesome freight rail system that spanned the continent, and an equally awseome merchant marine fleet of ocean-going frieght liners --together those two modes of transportation helped ship our stuff across this continent from one ocean to the next, and then across the oceans to our many customers. We had a sudden monopoly on all of Western civilization in our exclusive ability to manufacture and ship goods. We were the only act in town (or rather, we were the only act on the planet) because no one else had an intact infrastructure, and/or the abundance of in-house natural resouces freely available in such vast quantitis within their own borders, and/or a state-of-the-art global freight transport system. The rest of the industrial world was sitting lost and forelorn amid rubble and ruins. Why does anyone imagine we were so generous to help the Germans and the Japanese to recover?! Because we're a compassionate nation???? F--k no! They were our primary customers!

So, we retooled our factores to stop making fighter planes and tanks and parachutes, and we instead started to manufacture cars and furniture and appliances (ie., we beat our swords into plowshares) fired up our engines, and started to manufacture peacetime goods 'til the cows came home. And ALL of the components and inputs to this manufacturig process (the infrastructure, the energy, the labor, the raw materials, the transportatio system) came entirely from within the borders of the USA --not ONE component of the whole American Post-War Financial Machine was in any way reliant upon any other nation (except upon their wilingess to line up and pay us). And we sold and sold and sold and sold and sold --- and the rest of the world bought and bought and bought and bought and bought. This went on for about 20 years while Europe and Japan worked to rebuild their own towns and schools and hospitals and (eventually) their own factories. And all during that time the money from the rest of the world just kept on a'flowin' into our economy. (Internally we Americans also bought American goods by the gadzooks -- but as I said before, that is NOT "net growth" because it was all internal movements of money.) Due to all our exporting of goods, we experienced the greatest era of net growth --actual true blue, verifiable, net growth-- our economy ever saw. American companies were so desperate to attract management-level white colllar employees that they started offering "benefits packages" including medical insurance. Union leaders eventually negotiated for similar benefits packages for their blue collar constituents. Life was good! The price tag of American labor got very expensive, but there wasn't an alternative, so those huge American corporations merely charged more money to their end-customers overseas (the overseas customers had no one else to buy from, right? so they ahd no choice but to pay whatever we asked for).

We deceived ourselves into thinking this would last forever. But the real truth was the rest of the world eventually rebuilt, and then that magical era of endless growth ended. Europe and Japan had finally put themselves back together again and were able to manufacture their own stuff as they once had many decades earlier. By the late-1960's our economy was still doing well, but the end was in sight for those who had the ability to look to the horizon and see what was coming.

By this stage of the whole short-lived fool's game (by the late 1960's), the idea of "globalism" was being batted around in the smokey boardrooms of huge American corporations. Globalism included the concept of outsourcing certain aspects of American manufacturing to other nations due to the cheap labor (child labor!) avalable in those nations. But that required the elimination of such pesky things as tariffs. International trade agreements started getting complicated. Meanwhile, selling goods to the American people remaied an important way for huge corporations to stay afloat individually, but that practice of Econoy "A" selling to itself is (as I said) merely the sad case of a nation engaging in economic cannibalism -- eating your own nation's money. Economic cannibalism involves lots of internal actiity, but no growth. The illusion of growth can be generated by the dust cloud of all the busy activity from such cannibalism, but the only true way to grow is via outside money flowing in. The US economy as a whole was no longer raking in such a huge margin of export-income as it once did. Big businesses cried out for relief!

Then, as our export margins continued to shrink, and the horse-and-pony show of economc cannibalism kept up the illusion of growth, two double-whammies hit the US economy at once: 1) the first oil crisis of the early 1970's, and 2) the end of the Vietnam War (another "war is a racket" situation). These two events were very instrumental in causing/perpetuating the Long Bear Market of the early 1970's.

The Long Bear Market was troubling because it spawned a strange new economic situation never before seen: Stagflation! The Great Depression was marked by rampant Deflation, but this new development of Stagflation was unheard of. The puzzling dichotomy of Stagflation baffled economists of that era because it defied all known economic thought prior to the 1970's concerning supply, demand, inflation and deflation. What was causing it?? ANSWER: It was the sudden tightening of oil availability and the subsequent run-up of oil prices!! Our nation had never before experienced a true oil crunch. While it's true that we had oil rationing during WWII, that was in no way due to an actual oil shortage --we still (during WWII) had vertiable oceans of oil beneath the soils of Texas, Oklahoma, California, and Louisiana etc. And all that oil was more than available to our maufacturing interests during the war. The real shortage during WWII was in rubber because --unlike oil-- we had NO sources of rubber within our nation's borders. Rubber came mostly from Brazil, and Nazi Germany controlled Brazil and most of the coast of South America. So we had to try and prevent Americans from wearing out their automobile and truck tires too quickly. The rationing of gasoline was the best way to curb too much tire-wear. Therefore, it was merely auto transportation fuel that was being squelched, but manufacturing and agriculture --which both needed petroleum inputs to operate-- kept humming along just nicely. We cranked out plenty of plexiglass gun turret shields for our military aircraft in our American factories durig that war. Things were different in the 1970's though because ALL streams of petroleum --including the streams that fed into factories and agriculture--were being squeezed in a way that NEVER happened before. It suddenly cost a lot more to produce and harvest and ship food, and also cost a lot more to run factories where plastic goods like plexiglass (synthesized from petroleum) were manufactured. It was also DAMNED expensive to heat tour house if you did so via an oil-fired furnace. Thus the curse of Stagflation gripped our nation for the first time. The more simple pricipes of "supply and demand" were now impinged upon by the added complexities found in "resource avalability" -- a problem we Americans also never before faced (other than the rubber situation during WWII). Now I also adnit that we also faced the WWII scarcity of silk stockings as we prioritized military parachutes over ladies' hosiery, and we also suffered a scarcity of coffee and chocolate from South America, but none of those were bare-bones necessities, critical to day-to-day survival. So we managed those WWII shortages just fine. As for the 1970's we're talking about food itself, as well as heatig one's home. So yeah--we were in trouble. The hatred Americans suddenly had toward the Middle East was tangible as we watched our whole way of life devolve into poverty, and a longing for "the good old days" resurfaced in a way not see since the Great Depression.

We've had two strokes of good luck befall us since that civlization-changing moment in the early 1970's when the USA suddenly faced its first true oil crunch.

First, Alaskan oil finally came online via the completion of the Alaskan pipeline. We were able to increase domestic oil output via Alaska, thus reduce (but not eliminate) our reliance upon foriegn oil.

Second, North Sea oil similarly came on line (after more than 20 years of the UK and Norway working together very hard to make it happen). The North Sea flooded the global oil market with a seemigly endless supply of cheap oil provided by two nations very friendly toward the USA. Their own economies boomed. And America was saved (for now).

With those two new supplies of oil, OPEC was no onger sitting in the catbird seat. They wisely knew there was no way to beat the North Sea, so they deliberately throttled back in their own production in order to prevent the global price of oil from crashing into the basment. They set their oil production on cruise control --at a reasonably moderate speed -- for several decades while Alaska and the North Sea pumped and pumped and pumped. The price of oil dropped to a delightful $9 a barrel at one point during the 1990's. This situation of the gobal oil price remaining so low for so long was part of what destroyed the Soviet Union-- they had grown very reliant upon the one TRUE source of outside income: their oil that they sold to the rest of the world (outside money from Economies "B" and "C" and "D" flowing back home to Moscow to help pump up Economy "A"). As the price of oil dropped, they foolishly did what OPEC knew better than to do: they started pumping like mad trying to produce more and more oil to sell abroad, but the global price just kept going down and down and down. They depleted their fields to nothing, selling what ittle was left for mere pennies on the barrel. Their economy collapsed. And we Americans told ourselves that it was because our way of life was superior. We won the Cold War. It was good to be an American all through the 1990's and into the very beginnig of the 2000's.

And then .... By the beginnig of the 2000's, the North Sea finally hit the wall and started to decline. As did Alaska. And then the global price of oil started creeping up again. The UK is right now facing terrible energy prices and fuel scarcity. They have a term there, "fuel poverty" also called "heat poverty" where people spend so much money each month on their heating bill that it nearly bankrupts them. Norway is not so bad off because the scientific and business leaders in Norway foresaw this exact scenario all the way back in the 1970's as they were starting to get the North Sea to finally pump their first experimental wells. They KNEW the day would come when the oil output of the North Sea would sputter and die. They KNEW it would be foolish for them to take the upcoming tsunami of inflowing money and then then swing their whole economy into some sort of orgasmic fiesta of propserity and bigger houses and bigger cars and fun-filled living. So they agreed ahead of time to tax the shit out of the not-yet-flowing money that was soon to start resulting from their own internal oil industry and use that tax money to retool their nation's internal infrastructure to be able to operate during a future of oil scarcity when their own oil industry would reach its eventual twilight. They've done a damned good job of it. If anyone is set for the future it's Norway. The UK -- they are scrambling to built wind turbines and ocean wave harvesters, and they are STILL going to fall short of their energy needs.



Meanwhile, we are about to hit ANOTHER terrible economic situation like the shock we faced back in the 1970's. We're going to see MORE of that evil Stagflation rear its hideous head as life's necessities (especially food!) get compromised by oil shortages and go up in price by triple-digit percentage points. Not just chocolate and coffee and silk stockings -- but rice and wheat, fruits and veggies, all forms of meat, and even water itself. And this shock won't impact just the USA but will be hitting the entire world.



Your original question about war being good/not good for an economy .... I think I addressed that in the whole "economic cannibalism" illustration up above. War merely transfers money from a nation's treaury into the hands of that same nation's giant mlitary contactors, so no new money enters from the outside of that nation. It's all nothing but internal busy work that mimicks economic growth and is merely economic cannibalism. In the short-term it LOOKS like it helps an economy, but in the long term it just sucks it dry.
 
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AncientEagle

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A lot of information, PD. I'm exhausted from reading. What is your background from which you draw this? I'm not being facetious, nor argumentative. I'm just interested in knowing.
 

Plot Device

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A lot of information, PD. I'm exhausted from reading. What is your background from which you draw this? I'm not being facetious, nor argumentative. I'm just interested in knowing.


Well, Ancient Eagle, I don't know how many people might have sent you a rep point just now saying to you GOOD GOD, MAN! DON'T GET HER STARTED!!;)


But here goes...........


I am interpretting the rise and rise of the American empire via the lens of oil's role in shaping our place in the world. Oil has impacted my view of energy, money, politics, and history. It has especially impacted my view of the future. All of my understanding of energy (and especially oil-energy) has been sef-taught, and only learned by me during the past 3 years. But this understanding has changed my life. If the fact that I have self-taught is a trun off, and if the fact that my knowledge is a mere 3-years in its assemblage is likewise a turn off, then read no further.

What now follows is the overview of my whole outlook.







--------------------------------------------

I do not mark the 20th century via milestones of who was in the White House or which war was going on or what sort of critical victories in Civil Rights were gained or what magnificent scientific discoveries were made. I instead pace out the key moments of the 20th century according to a) our posession of and development of key forms of energy, and b) our posession of and relationship with (both internally and internationally) oil.

-- The British Navy during WWI was at an advantage because just prior to the start of that war they vigorously worked to convert their fleet from coal to oil.

-- England remained a superpower during the first half of the 20th century only for as long as they controlled certain key oil reserves in the Middle East.

-- Japan grew by leaps and bounds during the first 30 years of the 20th century only because the Emperor saw the value of western industrialism and admantly reorganized the business sector of his nation into modern factories, and simultaneosly built up a sizeable modern military war machine

--The US saw Japan's strength growing all during the 1930's, deemed them to be a severe military threat, and searched for a way to hinder their growing strength. So they determined that the one Achiles' heel to Japan's modern industrial might lay in the fact that they were almost 100% relaint upon Indonesia for oil. So the US Navy set up a blockade off the coast of Indonesia to prevent any more shipments of oil to Japan.

-- The Japanese economy siezed up with the sudden lack of oil. They tried to negotiate with the US, but to no avail.

--The Japanese decided the best way to put a stop to the US blockade of Indonesia was to cripple the USA's naval strength in the Pacific. So they bombed our base in Pearl Harbor, specifically targetting the ships docked there.

-- President Roosevelt was advised by his generals that the best way to stop Germany was to cut off its oil supply. Neither food nor water nor even land should be our target: we needed to choke off their oil. Germany had oil interests in Northern Africa and the Middle East, and trade routes from Africa into Germany. We needed to a) sabotage their Northern African and Middle Eastern oil supplies, and b) cut off the oil shipments from there into Europe. That would do the trick just nicely.

-- The Nazis' oil supply got so low during the final 18 months of the war that they resorted to a desperate ramp-up of a very shoddy technology they had developed for converting coal into oil (coal-to-liquids tech) which (with the technology of the day) wasn't very energy efficient because it turns out it took more energy to make such oil than the energy that they got from the resulting oil. While their desperate attempt at a coal-to-liquids program kept the Nazi war machine going for another year at best, it exhausted their coal reserves (and even took a chunk out of their forest woodlands because they needed to burn fuel to generate enough heat to make the chemical conversion). The lack of coal all over Germany for the citizens to even heat their own homes with was very demoralizing to their people since all of the coal was being funneled into the need to keep fuel in the Nazis' tanks and jeeps and air planes. Most of the Nazi generals foresaw during the final 12 months of the war that Germany was about to fall due to the lack of oil to power their war vehicles. The final 3 months of the war was just a lot of sad pretending by the generals as they watched the nearly-broken Hitler crumble before their eyes in his own denial.

-- Here's a 3-minute historical newsreel for your enjoyment. It involves FDR and his meeting with the King of Arabia on board the destroyer ship, the USS Quincy back in February of 1945.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sqPDdk5XCg



The past 50 years of Hollywood sci-fi offerings, as well as almost every edition of Scientific American has falesly led us to believe that technology is the savior of our past and the hope for our future. I have since learned that notion is the biggest crock of shit in the world, and said notion gets the all-time champion award for deceiving the hugest number of otherwise intelligent people for the longest-running number of decades straight. Technology is NOT our savior or our hope. Our true hope is energy. And sadly we are about to suffer a sevre shortage of energy very soon.

All of civilization going back 10,000 years has been built upon energy - specifically the use of EXCESS EXTERNAL energy (which means energy found outside of the strength of our own human bodies). Everything else concerning our very ability to be "civilized" falls into place AROUND excess external energy. Without an excess of external energy, we're just a bunch of hairless monkeys running naked through the woods, chomping on roots and berries. But as soon as we have the ability to capture and control an ADDITIONAL source of energy -- an energy located OUTSIDE of the energy already found within our bodies, and which we can capture in large quantities and use at will, such as building and maintaining a campfire-- then we have attained a special power available to us that elevates us above the animals. Using the sun to dry our laundry is using a form of excess external energy. Using the wind to cross a huge lake in a boat is using excess external energy. Using a waterfall to grind wheat into flour is using excess external energy. Using a horse to transport a load of turnips to the market place is using excess external energy (enslaved animal energy). Using a crew of 20 men to row the oars of a giant barge is using excess external energy (enslaved human energy). Using a fire to extract metal ores from a rock is using excess external energy. Using steam to make a riverboat's wheel spin is using excess external energy. Using a tightly coiled ribbon of metal to make a clock tick is using excess external energy (depending upon how we were able to tightly coil that ribbon of metal --if we wound it ourself with our bare hands, then we used our own bodilly energy). Using a rod of enriched plutnmium to power a submarine is using excess external energy.

As soon as you take the primary energy source away from a given civlization, that whole civilization collapses (if only partially so) downard to a much lower, far inferior standard of "civilized" living than they had when the engery supply was still in place (ie, they slip back down closer to the original baseline of when we were just hairless monkeys running naked through a forest, which means we swoop dangerously close to that detestable zone of living at "zero excess external energy" ). No technology can prevent the collapse, nor can it substitute for the missing enegry, because the technoligy itself is just as slavishly reliant upon the energy as we are. Technology doesn't MAKE an excess of energy, it merely utilizes the excess of external enery that is already there. Take the excess external energy away from the technolgy, and all you have left is a bunch of silent lifeless machines collecting dust and coverting to rust.

The posession of and control of and skillful impementation of excess external energy is wired directly into any human economy --it's wired into money. An excess of external energy is what makes work happen, and that's where trade and commerce come from. Take away the excess of external energy, and work will not get done. Commerce ceases. Money evaporates. Businesses go bakrupt. Economies sieze up. Island nations like Japan wither. Land-locked nations like Nazi Germany flounder. People can starve and die when there is a sudden and unstoppabe downgrading in the availability of excess external energy --just like people starved and died in the energy-deprived WWII Japan and Nazi Germany -- just like they are right now dying in the energy deprived North Korea.



For your reading ejoyment you can see my signature line. You can also check out the following links:


The Hirsch Report - Feb 2005
http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/oil_peaking_netl.pdf

The Army Corps of Engineers Report on Oil Security- Sep 2005
http://www.cecer.army.mil/techreports/Westervelt_EnergyTrends_TN/Westervelt_EnergyTrends__TN.pdf

The General Accountability Office Report on Crude Oil - February 2007
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

National Petroleum Council Hard Truths Report - July 2007
http://www.npchardtruthsreport.org/

The US Joint Forces Command Report on Oil Supplies- March 2010
http://www.fas.org/man/eprint/joe2010.pdf
 
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Don

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PD, all the energy stuff is fascinating, but I'd like to ask about something in your earlier post.
The only REAL way to cause "net growth" in Economy "A" is for Economy "A" to sell --at a profit-- goods and servcies to an outside economy (sell at a profit to other nations in Economies "B" and "C" and "D" etc). Unless money comes in from the outside, we're merely cannibalizing ourselves.
I don't think I've ever heard this theory advanced before. Are you saying that there's no net growth in an economy from the internal production and sale of goods and services?
 

Mac H.

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The only REAL way to cause "net growth" in Economy "A" is for Economy "A" to sell --at a profit-- goods and servcies to an outside economy (sell at a profit to other nations in Economies "B" and "C" and "D" etc). Unless money comes in from the outside, we're merely cannibalizing ourselves.
This is wrong. If it were true then there has been no net growth in the economy of the planet since we have been living in caves and grunting about sabertooths. (Since we aren't trading with any other planets - merely among ourselves)

If that is the case - then the measure is meaningless. Would you honestly say that if the USA economy suddenly changed tomorrow to be the equivalent of a handful of individuals living in caves and snacking on passing rodents that it wasn't a drop in the economy !??

In fact - I would argue the exact opposite to your quote ... simply shuffling around grain and each person charging the other a higher price doesn't cause any growth. Any 'growth' due to higher selling prices is meaningless because the price of grain went up by the same amount as the selling price ... you can still only buy the same number of grains.

The only real economic growth is making the pie bigger - rather than simply trading pieces of the pie with each other at increasing prices.

Mac
 

AncientEagle

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To: Plot Device:

Geez, woman, I just wanted a simple answer. Like, "I majored in economics," or "I used to work for the oil industry," or "I've been studying this for years." Instead, you gave me your PhD dissertation!

I'm kidding. Your comments are interesting. And, yes, I've seen the film of FDR with Saud before. (In fact, I was alive and well at the time their meeting took place.) In no way would I disparage your obvious ability to study and absorb details, nor your eloquence in explaining them. But I would point out, dots can be connected in all kinds of different ways. The connections can be made to look reasonably logical. But not all connections with all dots are necessarily correct. I don't buy all yours by any means, but I'm not going to argue with you about them. Not least because I have the feeling you'd drown me in verbiage. LOL.

I also hereby go on record as disagreeing with your contention, as I understand it, that our economic system doesn't gain anything unless we sell something to someone outside the borders of our own country.
 

blacbird

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What happens if the Chinese suddenly want to cash in on all their US Treasury bonds?

Which they won't, because they damn well know they wouldn't get paid, and it would annihilate the U.S. market for all their export goods. Oddly, they're pretty much over the same barrel we are. It's kind of like a potato sack race.