I'm not asking for much. My publisher isn't asking for much (arguments about e-pricing totally aside, even $20 isn't going to break someone that can afford a computer and internet connection).
It's doesn't really work out like that. People don't put the money they save because they pirate in the bank. (just ask Citigroup
) People see "free stuff" and get what they can. More than they would've paid for, more than they could've paid for, often more than they can even use. And the easier it is to get it, the more people get.
Unfortunately, as writers we're on the bottom of the totem pole, since books are really really easy to copy. They're extremely small and extremely easy to copy, it just takes a few seconds to download half a MB, and there's not crack to apply or DVD to burn. Games are on the other end, they're the largest files, and often require cracks to get them to run, which can be annoying as anyone can tell who uses cracks on their purchased games to avoid the (even more annoying) copy protection. That means books will get downloaded in the largest quantities and by the most people. It also means that since game publisher have tried for years and never managed to make the slightest dent in piracy, authors, agents and publishers don't have a snowflakes chance in hell to influence ebook piracy (which, as mentioned, is actually older than ebooks).
But that doesn't mean it's much to worry about either.
This is a very interesting Article which discusses games, not ebooks, but is nonetheless relevant. It tries to get a better estimate for actual lost sales due to piracy than the usual figures the industry puts out, which are made out of undiluted bullshit as they themselves have to admit.
The author of the article uses the iPhone for the estimate because it's very handy that only jailbroken iphones can use pirated software.
So he compares the numbers; iPhone game companies report that about 80% of their games in circulation are pirated copies, and yet at mot 10% of iPhones are jailbroken. That means that those who do pirate, have about
80 times more games than those who don't. It's extremely unlikely that they'd even have the money to buy all those games if they couldn't pirate them, definitly impossible on average. So, clearly not every pirated copy is a lost sale. But let's assume that pirates don't buy any games at all, but that they'd buy the same as other customers if they couldn't pirate. So, instead of having 80 times as many games as the average customer and not paying anything, the (no longer) pirates would have the same number of games as the average customer and pay full price.
Mathematically, that'd mean an increase in total sales by 11,1%, or that only one of 36 pirated copies (2,7%) is an actually lost sale.
While there are plenty of argument for adjusting the numbers up or down, this is the nearest approach to getting a realistic estimate of lost sales i've ever seen. And in that light, it doesn't sound like a problem worth worrying about to me.
As an aside i also think the moral side deserves debate. Because there is no qualitative difference between people downloading a book for free, or getting a used one as a gift from someone who's already read it. In both cases people read the book and the author gets nothing. The internet only makes a quantitative difference, and i'm not at all a fan of the idea that a quantitative difference in an act should have an effect on its perceived morality.
(The people who make illegal copies and sell them however are without question lower than pond scum)