Calgon take me away!

Alpha Echo · Feb 4, 2010

This is just ridiculous. I'm in Northern VA, and so far this winter, we've been slammed. Here's the forecast from our meteorologist (I work for the FAA)

The upper level wave that will be the cause of our weather later this week looks impressive over Mexico (see pic below)...and as it taps into more Gulf and Atlantic moisture, it will only get more impressive. Morning computer runs have come in. You have probably heard me say as a meteorologist you like to see the various models converge on a solution as the time gets closer but these are not. So that makes the job much more interesting. One increases the amount of precipitable water by 50% (meaning 30 inches snow), the other cuts it by 50% (down to a manageable 12 inches of snow). One tracks the system faster and more off the coast, the other slower, closer to Norfolk and then with a move towards NY. The actual outcome will depend on what I said before ref the complex upper level wind flow as the system moves out of the Gulf. That's why the models are diverging and they actually flip-flopped on their solutions over the last six hours. But I know you just want to see a forecast and not listen to the waffling....so below is my updated thoughts on amounts but I reserve the right to change. And remember, the NWS is the official place for weather advisories and warnings.

So what I think I know: Lots of moisture with this wave so we will see quite a storm--when all said and done, number 1 of the new decade so far It does not look likely to have freezing rain (a good thing) but it does look like a sleet and rain mix over areas east and south of DC in the beginning of the event before change over to all snow Saturday. That will keep the snow numbers down in those areas but again I reserve the right to update any time I want (and definitely as the track becomes clearer). The actual precipitable water amounts will be larger east and south of DC so if the track was for this area to have all snow...they would see bigger snowfall amounts then areas west and north. Additionally, this will be a very heavy "wet" snow compared to what we've been seeing lately--so be careful shoveling it. Did anyone invest in snowblowers like I recommended sometime ago??!!
current numbers:

West and Northern suburbs of DC: 15-21"
DC and areas east: 12-15"
South and Southwest of DC: 15-18"
more updates later

Nags Head in May cannot come soon enough. I'm ready for sun and sand and warmth!

Calgon take me away!

Lavern08 · Feb 4, 2010

Just for you, Sweet Pea...

Shazam!

Carole · Feb 4, 2010

Nags Head in May. Oh, my. My family always vacationed on the Outer Banks when I was growing up. It's kinda sad that it's not the slow, less-populated place with rustic, wood-floor shops selling rafts and Chick-o sticks that it used to be, but isn't that area still more beautiful than so many others?

Fran · Feb 4, 2010

Alpha Echo said:
Calgon take me away!

I thought Calgon was the stuff you used to get limescale out of washing machines. "Washing machines live longer with Calgon!" Why would it take you away? Are you limescale? I'm totally confused now.

*goes back to Clueless Land, clueless as ever, vaguely considering the possibility Calgon is something different in America*

Jersey Chick · Feb 4, 2010

Calgon is also a bath thingie (like bubble bath or bath salts) and their slogan used to be "Calgon! Take me away!" - yanno, like an escape from reality after a really crappy day.

Or maybe the OP is limescale. That I can't say.

Alpha Echo · Feb 4, 2010

Lavern08 said:
Just for you, Sweet Pea...

Shazam!

Ahhhh....soon enough!

Carole said:
Nags Head in May. Oh, my. My family always vacationed on the Outer Banks when I was growing up. It's kinda sad that it's not the slow, less-populated place with rustic, wood-floor shops selling rafts and Chick-o sticks that it used to be, but isn't that area still more beautiful than so many others?

I actually haven't been to Nags Head in years. My family used to go every summer but stopped when the family got too big. Now, my SO's family goes twice a year - May and October. They rent a huge house for a week, and all are invited. Either way, I'm excited! I haven't really been to the beach in quite awhile!

Jersey Chick said:
Calgon is also a bath thingie (like bubble bath or bath salts) and their slogan used to be "Calgon! Take me away!" - yanno, like an escape from reality after a really crappy day.

Or maybe the OP is limescale. That I can't say.

Nope. I meant the bath stuff, or rather, the slogan for the bath stuff.

Alpha Echo · Feb 4, 2010

Now they're saying 30".

Oh my goodness. I am not made for cold!

Honalo · Feb 4, 2010

Oh, Nags Head. Used to go to the Outer Banks every year in September, rented a place on the beach. It was cheap in September, after season.

Well here in Jersey we're in the same boat as you. For some reason I get weather reports sent to me at work. AccuWeather is calling for a "potentially paralyzing storm" similar to the Blizzard of '96, for those of you who remember that. Another report, which I posted on a different thread, calls for this February to be the coldest in 50 years.

I think we'll all be ready for Nags Head by March 1.

Tin Man · Feb 4, 2010

Alpha Echo said:
Now they're saying 30".

Oh my goodness. I am not made for cold!

I'm in agreement. I've always enjoyed the change of season, but if some how I could winter in a warmer climate....

I may have to tell the fam I'll be down in Key West for the winter. Just send me the bills.

writerterri · Feb 4, 2010

Cold weather is why the Russians invented Vodka. Or maybe they were just having a bad day.

Xelebes · Feb 4, 2010

Man, I wish we'd gt 30 cm snowfalls more often here. We had a snowstorm in December but that only dropped 20 cm.

sheadakota · Feb 5, 2010

I so agree with the OP! Here in NE Pa we are missing the brunt of this storm, but it seems all the major storms have come from the south this winter- I am used to these huge Nor-easters blasting us, but you poor guys down south have been getting hit hard this year-

My sister in Delaware is going to get slammmed! the sad part is no one down there knows how to drive in this type of weather- up here, we get two, three inches and its nothing, down there the whole state comes to a stand still! LOL-

Keep safe everyone and warm!

Alpha Echo · Feb 5, 2010

writerterri said:
Cold weather is why the Russians invented Vodka. Or maybe they were just having a bad day.

Cold weather is why I turn to red wine.

sheadakota said:
the sad part is no one down there knows how to drive in this type of weather- up here, we get two, three inches and its nothing, down there the whole state comes to a stand still! LOL-

Keep safe everyone and warm!

We should be a little more used to snow here, but we're not. Then again, we haven't had anything like this in years. I was in middle school, and we got the whole week off. I think the Little One will end up with most, if not all, of next week off.

Regardless, there's excitment in the air. Everyone gets amped up and energized when snow like this is on the way. Part of me doesn't want it, but part of me can't wait! I feel like a kid, all restless and stuff.

Now if only we can get out of work early - the snow should start in a few hours.

backslashbaby · Feb 5, 2010

Yep, I'm snowed in again as we speak. It starts out so beautifully, when it's fluffy and falling. Later, we always get ice storms. Ice is sharp and icky and breaks too many things. We've kept power, though. That's unusual!

I haven't been to Nags Head since I nearly drowned there as a toddler, stolen by the undertoe! I love the rest of the OBX, very much

Alpha Echo · Feb 5, 2010

I'm glad you didn't drown!

We normally get ice too, but this year, it's been mostly snow. That's all they're calling for this weekend. Just snow. And lots, lots of it. The ice is worse, but this much snow is going to keep us inside for awhile.

Well...except when shoveling. And I swear I offered to help, but my SO just shook his head and said it was unnecessary. I wan't gonna ask twice. Besides, it isn't like I don't have anything to do in the house - laundry, lots of DEEP cleaning...fun times.

Calgon take me away!

Alpha Echo

I should be writing.

Lavern08

Sit Down, and Shut Up!

Carole

How 'bout some ether?

Fran

Slate grey mole person

Jersey Chick

Up all night to get Loki

Alpha Echo

I should be writing.

Alpha Echo

I should be writing.

Honalo

Tin Man

Chicks dig the metal.

writerterri

It's a dorky day!

Xelebes

Delerium ex Ennui

sheadakota

part of the human equation

Alpha Echo

I should be writing.

backslashbaby

*

Alpha Echo

I should be writing.

Calgon take me away!

I should be writing.

Sit Down, and Shut Up!

How 'bout some ether?

Slate grey mole person

Up all night to get Loki

I should be writing.

I should be writing.

Chicks dig the metal.

It's a dorky day!

Delerium ex Ennui

part of the human equation

I should be writing.

~~~~*~~~~

I should be writing.

*