• This forum is specifically for the discussion of factual science and technology. When the topic moves to speculation, then it needs to also move to the parent forum, Science Fiction and Fantasy (SF/F).

    If the topic of a discussion becomes political, even remotely so, then it immediately does no longer belong here. Failure to comply with these simple and reasonable guidelines will result in one of the following.
    1. the thread will be moved to the appropriate forum
    2. the thread will be closed to further posts.
    3. the thread will remain, but the posts that deviate from the topic will be relocated or deleted.
    Thank you for understanding.​

space rocks, sort of

GeorgeK

ever seeking
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jul 17, 2007
Messages
6,577
Reaction score
740
If someone (ET's) were to chuck three roughly equal but automobile sized rocks off of the moon to have them enter Earth's atmosphere, and the someone wasn't aiming for any particular place for them to land, would the laws of physics say that they had to land in some particular trajectory, or could the randomness of variables allow me to specify places on opposite sides of the globe? could one land in an arctic region and another in the southern hemisphere?

Assuming modern day, what is the likelihood that a given government might notice the incoming rocks and what kind of leadtime might they reasonably have to do anything. Could they do anything? Would they scramble jets, or aim missiles, or just hold their breath?
 

blacbird

Super Member
Registered
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
Messages
36,987
Reaction score
6,158
Location
The right earlobe of North America
They could land pretty much anywhere. An auto-sized rock might these days get noticed; one about that size whizzed past us just a week or so ago, at a distance of about 1/3 that of the moon, and was noticed a few days before. But something of that size would be unlikely to cause much concern. It would likely explode high in the atmosphere, and I read that earth receives a fair number of bolide impacts of this size every year. The famous 1908 Tunguska object that exploded over Siberia is estimated to have been about the size of a football field, or a bit larger.

caw
 

triceretops

Banned
Flounced
Joined
Feb 12, 2005
Messages
14,060
Reaction score
2,755
Location
In a van down by the river
Website
guerrillawarfareforwriters.blogspot.com
Whats the medium or average velocity of a meteor coming into earth's atmosphere? Is is about 30,000 mph? I guess a lot would depend on the exterior force that launched the rocks from the moon in the first place. The moon is roughly 240,000 miles from earth. So you could figure the math, I guess. And that's ballpark. Blacbird is correct about an object that size disintergrating before it hits the earth's surface. Composition of the object has much to do with it too. Lot's of variables here.

Tri
 

GeorgeK

ever seeking
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jul 17, 2007
Messages
6,577
Reaction score
740
So, then the objects in this case would be going only about 10K mph. Would that in itself make scientists (and therefore governments) go, "mmm that warrants further investigation. see if we can't pull up satellite images and backtrack where it came from..." or would they say, "pfft, ignore that! It might make for a neat lightshow over Tokyo, but don't cancel dinnerplans."
 
Last edited:

benbradley

It's a doggy dog world
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Dec 5, 2006
Messages
20,322
Reaction score
3,513
Location
Transcending Canines
Whats the medium or average velocity of a meteor coming into earth's atmosphere? Is is about 30,000 mph? I guess a lot would depend on the exterior force that launched the rocks from the moon in the first place. The moon is roughly 240,000 miles from earth. So you could figure the math, I guess. And that's ballpark. Blacbird is correct about an object that size disintergrating before it hits the earth's surface. Composition of the object has much to do with it too. Lot's of variables here.

Tri
Escape velocity of Earth is about 7 miles per second, or about 25,000 miles per hour. That's about the speed the Apollo Moon missions re-entered Earth atmosphere, and I'd say that's a good number for anything sent from the Moon with just barely enough velocity to escape the Moon's gravity and come to Earth.

(Obligatory SF reference of regular shipments from Moon to Earth being repurposed as bombs: "The Moon is A Harsh Mistress," Robert Heinlein)

Low-Earth orbiting satellites such as the Shuttle come in at a slower speed of about 17,000MPH. Re-entry is also at a quite shallow angle, using the time in the atmosphere to slow down before it gets to Earth. A steeper angle will take less time to get to Earth, but may heat up faster because it gets to denser parts of the atmosphere sooner, perhaps contributing to it exploding into fragments that then completely burn up.

Rereading the OP, automobile-sized rocks lifted from the Moon could well burn up depending of course on composition.

The Earth orbits the Sun at 13 miles per second, or 47,000MPH. A meteor can hit Earth at any angle from any direction, but much debris orbits the same general direction with the planets, so I think they usually hit slower than that.

Composition surely has a lot to do with it. Being an almost all-steel automobile, I suspect something solid would be left to hit land (or ocean, depending on where it falls). The body would surely burn off, but larger metal parts such as the engine and frame may be protected by the body during early re-entry, and so not completely burn up.

The Space Shuttle Columbia is an interesting case. The remaining carbon wing edge and tiles protected much of it during early re-entry, and it was of course much larger than an automobile, and many chunks hit the ground. Quite surprisingly, an important component containing large amounts of data from the mission was recovered, a hard disk drive:
http://www.computerworld.com/s/arti..._i_hard_drive_data_recovered_from_crash_site_
So, then the objects in this case would be going only about 10K mph. Would that in itself make scientists (and therefore governments) go, "mmm that warrants further investigation. see if we can't pull up satellite images and backtrack where it came from..." or would they say, "pfft, ignore that! It might make for a neat lightshow over Tokyo, but don't cancel dinnerplans."
As I stated above, if they come from the Moon they'll be going at closer to 25kmph, and the higher-than-average speed for a near-Earth object may attract more attention. If they get enough info on the paths to discover that both objects came not from two random directions but from the direction of the Moon, scientific (and while I'm at it, military) eyebrows will certainly be raised.

Also, with these rocks taking days to make the journey (and especially going slowly through the 'sticking point' where the gravity of the Earth and the Moon is equal), a relatively small variation in the launch speed between them could cause a 12-hour difference between hitting Earth (or its atmosphere) even when hitting head-on, and than in itself would make them hit on opposite sides of the Earth.
 

Xelebes

Delerium ex Ennui
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
Messages
14,205
Reaction score
884
Location
Edmonton, Canada
Whats the medium or average velocity of a meteor coming into earth's atmosphere? Is is about 30,000 mph? I guess a lot would depend on the exterior force that launched the rocks from the moon in the first place. The moon is roughly 240,000 miles from earth. So you could figure the math, I guess. And that's ballpark. Blacbird is correct about an object that size disintergrating before it hits the earth's surface. Composition of the object has much to do with it too. Lot's of variables here.

Tri


The moon is highly siliceous and has little ferrous material which could withstand the resistance from entry into the atmosphere.
 

Pthom

Word butcher
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Feb 12, 2005
Messages
7,013
Reaction score
1,207
Location
Oregon
The trajectory of the rock "tossed" from the Moon to Earth depends on several factors: mass of the rock, the velocity at which it leaves the Moon, where on the moon it's heaved from, and in which direction it's heaved to.

The Moon isn't just a big platform from where you can drop things to Earth. You have to impart enough energy to an object so that it will escape the Moon's gravity. It should be possible for an object to be "sent" from the Moon to land almost anywhere on Earth.
 

small axe

memento mori
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Apr 6, 2007
Messages
1,940
Reaction score
261
That raises a related question for me: If you were to eject an object from the surface of the Moon (on the Earth-side), just fast enough that it escapes the Moon's own gravity ... would it inevitably "fall" to hit the Earth, simply due to the Earth's gravitational pull on anything leaving the Moon surface?

Or would you still have to specifically "aim it" towards Earth?
 

Xelebes

Delerium ex Ennui
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Aug 8, 2009
Messages
14,205
Reaction score
884
Location
Edmonton, Canada
That raises a related question for me: If you were to eject an object from the surface of the Moon (on the Earth-side), just fast enough that it escapes the Moon's own gravity ... would it inevitably "fall" to hit the Earth, simply due to the Earth's gravitational pull on anything leaving the Moon surface?

Or would you still have to specifically "aim it" towards Earth?

You would have to aim, I believe. You could lodge it off on an angle away with a shot fast enough that it is just deflected by Earth's gravity and not trapped by it.
 

GeorgeK

ever seeking
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jul 17, 2007
Messages
6,577
Reaction score
740
It's from the far side (sometimes called the dark side) of the moon if that matters
 

Pthom

Word butcher
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Feb 12, 2005
Messages
7,013
Reaction score
1,207
Location
Oregon
It's from the far side (sometimes called the dark side) of the moon if that matters
It matters. But it's still just a problem of orbital mechanics.
 

pdknz

Having way too much fun
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Mar 5, 2010
Messages
157
Reaction score
17
Location
You wouldn't believe me if I told you.
There's a really good discussion of this scenario in Heinlein's "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"

He used a magnetic launcher to ship containers of grain from the Moon to the Earth, and described elements like exit and reentry velocity, vector vs scalar velocities, initial launch and course correction issues. Short summary is that good calculations can put stuff about anywhere on the earth just by controlling the initial launch, and that very minor variations will control the landing point.

If you miss the earth, the orbit will come back to about where the launch originated due to conservation of energy. So careful or you might hit yourself in the back of the head.
 

GeorgeK

ever seeking
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jul 17, 2007
Messages
6,577
Reaction score
740
As I stated above, if they come from the Moon they'll be going at closer to 25kmph, and the higher-than-average speed for a near-Earth object may attract more attention. If they get enough info on the paths to discover that both objects came not from two random directions but from the direction of the Moon, scientific (and while I'm at it, military) eyebrows will certainly be raised.

Also, with these rocks taking days to make the journey (and especially going slowly through the 'sticking point' where the gravity of the Earth and the Moon is equal), a relatively small variation in the launch speed between them could cause a 12-hour difference between hitting Earth (or its atmosphere) even when hitting head-on, and than in itself would make them hit on opposite sides of the Earth.

Ok, if the rocks start out going faster than expected (say 40kmph) and then suddenly slow down more than expected once they hit the atmosphere (down to 10kmph), given that they are only the size of a car, is it reasonable that most of the world's astronomers would still brush it all off assuming they paid any attention or even saw them in the first place?


I guess a better question is if what I have is reasonable: A few people (not sure what installation I should use, or if it should be a fictitious tracking station (is that the right term?)) notice them and say, "mmm, those are faster than they should be, but they are too small to worry about. Then 6-12 hours later they say, "uhhh, those things have slowed down too much, maybe we should make a few phone calls?

I was also going to have someone assume that the significant change in velocity was effectively a change in vector, and therefore suggestive of some intelligence controlling them.
 
Last edited:

Lhun

New kid, be gentle!
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jan 30, 2007
Messages
1,956
Reaction score
137
Ok, if the rocks start out going faster than expected (say 40kmph) and then suddenly slow down more than expected once they hit the atmosphere (down to 10kmph), given that they are only the size of a car, is it reasonable that most of the world's astronomers would still brush it all off assuming they paid any attention or even saw them in the first place?
No. Especially not if there's any vector change being made, which is extremely suspicious. And most methods of changing the vector would involve some kind of thruster which would be highly noticeable.
I guess a better question is if what I have is reasonable: A few people (not sure what installation I should use, or if it should be a fictitious tracking station (is that the right term?)) notice them and say, "mmm, those are faster than they should be, but they are too small to worry about. Then 6-12 hours later they say, "uhhh, those things have slowed down too much, maybe we should make a few phone calls?
It'd be more like, "wow, that speed is really interesting, where did they come from" followed by "holy shit, they just changed speed, check that out". The latter part probably emailed to every other observatory that could take a look at the rocks.
Think "biggest astronomical event in the month, possibly year".
I was also going to have someone assume that the significant change in velocity was effectively a change in vector, and therefore suggestive of some intelligence controlling them.
A vector is the combination of velocity and direction (well, in physics) so any change in speed or direction is a vector change. While a vector change does not necessarily mean an intelligence controlling a rock, it is at the very least extremely unusual.
 

GeorgeK

ever seeking
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jul 17, 2007
Messages
6,577
Reaction score
740
oops, sorry I was abusing the term vector. I was thinking trajectory.

So then if I left it as is, it would be reasonable that one country may be too busy to notice, another would have astronomers calling people and pointing more telescopes at them, and a third might actually have time to scramble a few jets to take a closer look as the things get in? What would be a reasonable elelvation that jsts could expect a visual confirmation?
 

GeorgeK

ever seeking
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jul 17, 2007
Messages
6,577
Reaction score
740
It'd be more like, "wow, that speed is really interesting, where did they come from" .

Assuming the origin is the far side of the moon, and the objects are spotted only a few hours before their velocity changes, do they have the wherewithall to back track satellite information and get pictures from the point of origin, to actually see the alien ship which is on the far side of the moon (or rather was when it chucked the rocks, but has already left)

So some scientist could say, "Pull up whatever satellite XG17 was looking at 16 hours ago," and they actually could do it?
 
Last edited:

Lhun

New kid, be gentle!
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jan 30, 2007
Messages
1,956
Reaction score
137
So some scientist could say, "Pull up whatever satellite XG17 was looking at 16 hours ago," and they actually could do it?
Pretty much, yes. Data storage space is dirt cheap. Hell, if you go with current trends, we might all record our lives on video 24/7 in a decade, just because we'll be able to.
Calculating the position of the rock back in time takes a computer pretty much no time at all.
So then if I left it as is, it would be reasonable that one country may be too busy to notice, another would have astronomers calling people and pointing more telescopes at them, and a third might actually have time to scramble a few jets to take a closer look as the things get in? What would be a reasonable elelvation that jsts could expect a visual confirmation?
Well, astronomy isn't really a national thing.
The jets won't do anything at all, you want to see something in space, you point a telescope at it, getting a few kilometres closer by sending a jet up won't do anything.
 

GeorgeK

ever seeking
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jul 17, 2007
Messages
6,577
Reaction score
740
Well, astronomy isn't really a national thing.
The jets won't do anything at all, you want to see something in space, you point a telescope at it, getting a few kilometres closer by sending a jet up won't do anything.

True, however militaries are national. Does it seem inconceivable that several different countries might have different responses?
 

Lhun

New kid, be gentle!
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jan 30, 2007
Messages
1,956
Reaction score
137
True, however militaries are national. Does it seem inconceivable that several different countries might have different responses?
What i meant was that it's unlikely that findings by one astronomer wouldn't be internationally publicized. How coordinated the response would be is a political question. (i.e. anything's possible)