Stephen King on the Future of Entertainment--Starting With Books

My agent told me that King's column gave her a sleepless night.

I told her I knew how she felt. Sobering stuff. And if there's one thing King has been able to do throughout his career, it's keep a fairly accurate finger on the pulse of popular culture.

If publishers are going to survive this new reality, they'll have to reinvent themselves -- something publishers have a history of being really bad at.

We'll have to reinvent ourselves as well. If we can.

I think it is down to that ever popular tipping point. When download speeds went up enough and hardware prices went down enough and storage space went up enough ... goodbye purchasing CDs in shops.

Books are on the same track and the future looks something like the Kindle but with access to buy-download or free-download any book ever written in the history of time.

I think it will go like this: writer works with editor to make publishable manuscript. They put manuscript up on various sites that pay for downloads or allow free downloads. Writer only needs about $1.50 to beat the average book royalty. Editor needs a percentage royalty for their editing work.

I suspect editors will morph into editor-marketer-sales copy writer plus a bit of web-savvy AND they'll work on commission only. Paper publishing will become where something immensely popular goes and the royalty structure won't be in favour of the publisher.

I suspect the tipping point (assuming a younger generation than mine is reading books as opposed to watching reality television or blasting away on their PS3's) will be when a good quality eBook reader becomes available for $50-$100. If the vessel by which eBooks becomes affordable for the masses, then it will be interesting to see what the publishing industry morphs into.

I think the roles of agents, publishers, publicists, and editors will probably merge into one. You'll have one person (or agency) that takes care of editing, pimping and promoting, and selling. They'll work for the writer, as an agent does now, and take a commission off of sales. The agencies with the best reputations will be considered more prestigious, will attract better writers, and will sell more books. There will be plenty who are small-time, and there will be scammers. A lot like the way things are now, except with middle men cut out.

Advances? I don't know. I'd assume they aren't going anywhere, but who knows. However, I think the hunger for good stories is strong enough that writers will still be able to make a living off of writing. Musicians are still able to make a living off of music, even though the distribution and pay models have changed drastically over the last few decades, and even changed from decade to decade. Really good film-makers are still able to make a living off of really good films, even though Michael Bay makes more money than they do.

Undoubtedly people will find ways of stealing from authors. Sharing e-book downloads. Pirating. But ways to combat pirating will be invented. And thwarted. And re-invented.

E-publishing is already around, and it's not as popular as traditional publishing. Traditional publishing tends to have the money behind it for publicity. More people think to buy traditionally published books than e-books. If/when e-readers take over, it will be the same way: The big agencies that have the connections and the reputations will sell better than the little guys who are still struggling -- or just plain publishing crap.

You can buy self-published and PA books on Amazon right now. They haven't become more popular than the books with real professionalism behind them. And books with real professionalism behind them can suck atrociously, too. I don't see how e-readers are going to make the Dan Browns of the world earn relatively more money than they are earning already. If quality e-books are made available, the fans of quality will find them, and they will pass the word along to their friends. A lot like how books gain popularity now.

Frankly, the only thing that keeps me awake at night concerning the possible changes in the industry is the loss of cover art. I love cover art. I collect it. I was really dismayed to learn that Kindles don't display cover art. I won't be buying one, in fact, until they do. If they do. If they never do, I'll stick to "old" books. I feel that strongly about the marriage of art and literature.

E-book downloads now account for only 1.5% of the total market...but that was once true of compact discs, and if you've bought an actual vinyl record lately, you're in very select company.

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While King makes a good point, the comparison to an iPod to an e-reader is not a straight line. I think it would be difficult to find someone who argues listening to an mp3 is less pleasurable than listening to a CD or a tape (maybe vinyl...). But you'll still find plenty of people who argue reading an e-reader is far less pleasurable than reading a real book. An unlike vinyl, which went out of style when tapes became the portable option, a book has always been portable.

And even though you might want more than one song or album to listen to during the day, you're likely to only need one book.

I'm confused. Why would anything change simply because the media changed? Writers still write. Agents still agents. Editors still edit. Publishers still publish. Readers still read.

The only ones who might have problems here are the printers.

Newspapers still haven't figured out online publishing. Sudden publishing has ruined a lot of the ethics and integrity of good reporting and editing (not that I think there's a lot to begin with). Though e-books are a totally different type of beast, obviously. I don't mind them. I think they have a place in publishing and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out in the future.

katiemac said:

While King makes a good point, the comparison to an iPod to an e-reader is not a straight line. I think it would be difficult to find someone who argues listening to an mp3 is less pleasurable than listening to a CD or a tape (maybe vinyl...). But you'll still find plenty of people who argue reading an e-reader is far less pleasurable than reading a real book. An unlike vinyl, which went out of style when tapes became the portable option, a book has always been portable.

And even though you might want more than one song or album to listen to during the day, you're likely to only need one book.

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Good points as always, K-dogg.

I'd prefer an e-reader over books if the experience was more rich.

Fact of the matter is that books still have some edges over e-books. Like someone said, cover art, and there's just something about the solidity of the thing. I say all of this as a complete technophile who can't live without a computer.

There is one thing I hate about books, though, especially the lengthy ones: they're so goddamn heavy/unwieldy.

A bigger e-reader with good, color screen while remaining light-weight, having cover art, and being cheap would sell me on the thing. All of those things are going to take a while, though. I'd say we're a number of decades out (or at least *a* decade or two) from the slow death of publishing. Tech isn't there. You could compare the current e-readers in technical sophistication to the computers of the 1980s or early 90s. They're getting there, but they're still pretty primitive.

E-paper is a fascinating idea, too. Imagine a "book" with a real, gorgeous cover and binding, with just 2-4 pages inside, which automatically change their text to the next "page" in the book when you turn them.

I am a major book nerd. If it wasn't for my heavy travel schedule, I would have NEVER bought an e-reader. EVER. But, I finally caved in after years of hauling suitcases of books all around the world and paying $100/month in amazon.com shipping charges. I am now a total convert. My Kindle is my most prized possession, hands down. I do not miss reading from a paper book at all. I don't even notice that I'm using an electronic device when I'm reading from my Kindle. It's true that it "disappears in your hands."

Right now I'd be more likely to buy a Kindle or the like to do research. Although I DO like huge unwieldy novels, and it's hard to walk and read those at the same time...

katiemac said:

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And even though you might want more than one song or album to listen to during the day, you're likely to only need one book.

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But, don't forget, it's not just for books. When I take my Kindle with me on errands (waiting at the drs office, for ex) it's not just a book I read. Never mind I can work by reading/working on my manuscripts or those I'm reading for my writing grp, but I catch up on blogs, newspapers, and magazines as well. It's one of the functions I love-never mind that whole not having to recycle piles and piles of paper.

Shadow_Ferret said:

I'm confused. Why would anything change simply because the media changed? Writers still write. Agents still agents. Editors still edit. Publishers still publish. Readers still read.

The only ones who might have problems here are the printers.

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That's what I've been pondering... it's *just* another medium, right? Yes, a medium that'll probably be the most popular medium in a few years but still, why would that mean agents etc will be losing their jobs?

TrixieLox said:

That's what I've been pondering... it's *just* another medium, right? Yes, a medium that'll probably be the most popular medium in a few years but still, why would that mean agents etc will be losing their jobs?

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Well, I think one of the biggest obstacles is free content. (Or even dirt cheap content.) Readers will still read, but how often will they have to pay for what they read and how much will they have/agree to pay? They'll be able to download for free and swap files, right? And want to, because e-readers would be cheap and easier to read and carry...and don't forget green.

So, let's say it becomes the most popular medium. How do publishers make money off that-money like they're making now? And writers. Who pay agents. What if they lose a sizeable chunk of their print publishing? And have to lower the prices of their e-books?

Like CC said, the publishing industry will need to reinvent itself. But, my fear is they need to speed it up a little.

I think millions and millions of good old print books are still be sold every year, and about 98% of the problems I've seen with publishers over the last five years are not from lack of sales, but from horrendously poor investments and silly loans.

I don't think anyone knows what the future holds, but it's hard to worry when so many print books are still being sold. . .far more than during the so-called "Golden Age" of publishing.

I would hope smart business people would worry, however.

After all, successful business people tend to become successful by foreseeing the potential for change and figuring out how to create it, fuel it, and exploit it for profit-all before anyone else.

That's how the Kindle started, after all. And the Internet. And the iPhone. All cell phones, actually. The iPod and mp3. And I expect electric cars, and on and on. So, yeah. I hope someone worries, and they hurry up a little. That'd be great.

The obvious thing a print book has over a download is substance. Nothing like owning a shelf full of books, be they paperbacks from the used bookstore or hardcovers the size of phonebooks, they're something to collect and be proud of. I have no problem with a portable reader as the convenience is unbeatable, but the actual printed book will never go out of style. Outmoded, yes, but they'll stick around forever and have a fierce cult following, sort of like those who collect phonograph records. Only difference is that books will never totally stop being printed.

Here's a couple of links relating to this.

First, Digi-Novels may be one way (but certainly not the only way ) things will go.

Second, for them to really take off, e-readers WILL need a much richer experience, including web accessibility. Perhaps something yet between an e-reader and a tablet PC?

Here's a look at some of the latest versions of e-readers, from Time.

At the risk of looking like a thicky...what's a kindle?

I think that there will always be traditional books and traditional publishing. I just think that e-readers will cut in on that market and become a major competitor to it.

I don't think paper books are doomed. I just think that they will be in decline until a balance is struck between e-readers and paper readers.

Hmmm, it’s hard to speculate on the changes e-books may have on writing and publishing (two different things) and while I won’t speculate on the technological/convenience aspects of e-books, I have to admit I’m kinda worried about the profitability and social aspects. I see the very real potential for the same thing happening to books/reading as happened to music.

The fact is that humans aren’t that difficult to predict sometimes, and if people can get something for free, they most likely will. What that means is that since your product can be so easily produced and re-produced now (no more actual books that have to be printed, physically bound and constructed, distributed, displayed at a particular place etc.), that there’s less ability for a writer (or agent or publisher) to make any money off it.

For instance: you write a stunning novel, a certifiable work of genius that sums up the human experience and makes teenagers (as an example demographic) long to be your protagonist. Instead of running out to buy your book, they now can just copy it from their friend’s e-reader or download it from the million places online that rip copies (just like they do with music.)

So now, instead of one (1) high school with 200 kids possibly buying your books, you have maybe 2 people buying them and the rest copying them for free. That’s one high school in one small city. Multiply that by all the high schools in the USA and add all the other high schools in the world, and you get a HUGE decrease in earning potential for a writer.

So, I’m inclined to believe that the more available e-books become, the less earnings writers will see. Less reprints, less print runs, less actual books sold and eventually, less e-books sold even (as people just download bootlegged copies.)

I’ve been fascinated by the paradigm shift created by the internet and the availability of music. I’ve noticed a huge divide between older members, who weren’t born and raised on the internet, and younger members who have. I’ve noticed a difference in views on intellectual property and what constitutes theft.

The majority of younger people see nothing wrong with downloading something for free, whereas the older people generally regard it as wrong.

I feel, as younger people grow up with e-books becoming more available and possibly becoming the dominant form of reading, this same attitude will eventually emerge where many will feel they shouldn’t have to pay for a book/story. It should be readily free to anyone who wants it.

And what will that mean for writers and storytellers who seek compensation for their hard work?

Only time will tell, I suppose.

Oh, and if your very investor-savvy, then you might want to consider the idea that one day, used bookstores will be a very profitable business (in the same sense that an antique shop is a profitable business). Thus, the more books you have, the more potential value you have.

As someone said, when I can get paid to read my book for a crowd the same way a rock band can get paid for performing for a crowd, THEN talk to me about how the book business and the music business are similar when it comes to electronic theft of work.