Feel lucky? Well, do ya?

Mom'sWrite · Aug 20, 2008

*apologizes for my poor impression of Clint Eastwood*

I've hit an impasse in my consideration of the subject of atheism/agnosticism vs. a benevolent higher power. All my conclusions lead me to believe that there isn't any benevolent guidance for the animals called Human (or malevolent, for that matter) except for the area known as Luck (Good and Bad) where it gets a little gray for me.

Is Luck (both Good and Bad) always a function of coincidence? Or perhaps coincidence married to unseen consequence? Or maybe a combination of consequence, coincidence and unseen guidance? Can my non-believing character rely on luck to get him through?

Higgins · Aug 20, 2008

Mom'sWrite said:
*apologizes for my poor impression of Clint Eastwood*

I've hit an impasse in my consideration of the subject of atheism/agnosticism vs. a benevolent higher power. All my conclusions lead me to believe that there isn't any benevolent guidance for the animals called Human (or malevolent, for that matter) except for the area known as Luck (Good and Bad) where it gets a little gray for me.

Is Luck (both Good and Bad) always a function of coincidence? Or perhaps coincidence married to unseen consequence? Or maybe a combination of consequence, coincidence and unseen guidance? Can my non-believing character rely on luck to get him through?

Sure...my impression is that non-believers tend to be a bit luckier than believers. I think this is because one aspect of luck is jus flat out going with your own instinctive flow based on subliminal cues about what is likely to happen next. That and a firm belief in Bayesian statistics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability

http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html

Mom'sWrite · Aug 20, 2008

Higgins said:
Sure...my impression is that non-believers tend to be a bit luckier than believers. I think this is because one aspect of luck is jus flat out going with your own instinctive flow based on subliminal cues about what is likely to happen next. That and a firm belief in Bayesian statistics.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability

http://yudkowsky.net/bayes/bayes.html

Thanks for the wiki. I want to test my understanding of what you are saying, if you don't mind.

Subjective Bayesian statistics (this is the first time I've encountered it) basically postulates that the probability of x happening is dependent on the level of belief that the individual has that x will happen. Si? Isn't that the basis of The Secret? Granted, all I know of The Secret is what I gleaned from watching 3 minutes of the informercial. What I got from it is that good things will happen if you believe that good things will happen. Bayesian statistics mathematically determines that you get what you focus on (a Tony Robbins-ism)? If I'm wandering too far afield here let me know. This is fascinating.

Shadow_Ferret · Aug 20, 2008

I don't believe in luck either. I just believe things happen. You either have control of it or you don't, but there's no luck except if you ascribe that terminalogy to the incident.

Higgins · Aug 20, 2008

Mom'sWrite said:
Thanks for the wiki. I want to test my understanding of what you are saying, if you don't mind.

Subjective Bayesian statistics (this is the first time I've encountered it) basically postulates that the probability of x happening is dependent on the level of belief that the individual has that x will happen. Si? Isn't that the basis of The Secret? Granted, all I know of The Secret is what I gleaned from watching 3 minutes of the informercial. What I got from it is that good things will happen if you believe that good things will happen. Bayesian statistics mathematically determines that you get what you focus on (a Tony Robbins-ism)? If I'm wandering too far afield here let me know. This is fascinating.

I have no idea what the Secret is. The basic Bayesian notions seem to be that the probability of something is based on prior conditions and what you are testing is based on how likely you think that thing is to happen and you could be wrong. Apparently including "priors" and being rigorous about tests as decisions makes things a lot trickier mathematically. The odd thing is that somehow the way I have been trying to explain "Bayesian" to people...just makes them laugh. Perhaps I manage to sound too incredulous?
So its not that you get what you focus on...its that the focus is clarified as a set of decisions tracking sets of events. So the Bayesian approach accepts the contingencies of the flow and lets the math get messy.

StephanieFox · Aug 20, 2008

Are you talking about real life or the life of a character? If you are talking about fiction, your character can rely on anything he or she want to, whether it's luck or god or karma or magick. Even an atheist character can rely on luck (or something) at some point because the human mind is kinda hardwired to do so. Magical thinking isn't bad in an of itself, it's only bad if it gets out of hand and effects the way people live.

If your character wants to wear a luck shirt bowling, or keep a charm in his or her pocket to keep away the muggers, that's not going to hurt anything.

Death Wizard · Aug 20, 2008

If you throw a stone into a pond, it will cause ripples. If one of the ripples splashes onto a low-lying branch and causes a fly to fall off the branch into the water and be eaten by a bass, is that bad luck for the fly and good luck for the bass? And is the fly now your enemy and the bass now your friend? You were on the other side of the pond, had already strolled away, and knew nothing of either the fly or the bass. Expand this to a cosmic scale and perhaps your original question is answered.

rugcat · Aug 20, 2008

Eeek said:
My take is that luck and coincidences are often illusions.

Arthur Koestler wrote a thought provoking book on this: The Roots Of Coincidence. Written in the mid seventies, it's maybe a bit dated now due to the advancements in quantum theory, but it's still well worth reading.

And of course, there's always Kurt Vonnegut's Cat's Cradle for a another take on, among other things, how many seemingly random things are really inextricably connected.

zornhau · Aug 24, 2008

Mom'sWrite said:
*apologizes for my poor impression of Clint Eastwood*

I've hit an impasse in my consideration of the subject of atheism/agnosticism vs. a benevolent higher power. All my conclusions lead me to believe that there isn't any benevolent guidance for the animals called Human (or malevolent, for that matter) except for the area known as Luck (Good and Bad) where it gets a little gray for me.

Is Luck (both Good and Bad) always a function of coincidence? Or perhaps coincidence married to unseen consequence? Or maybe a combination of consequence, coincidence and unseen guidance? Can my non-believing character rely on luck to get him through?

I think, not having the consolation of a pat on the head from a "higher" power, we make our own luck, in part by being ready to exploit any luck that comes our way.

Ruv Draba · Aug 24, 2008

Mom'sWrite said:
Is Luck (both Good and Bad) always a function of coincidence? Or perhaps coincidence married to unseen consequence? Or maybe a combination of consequence, coincidence and unseen guidance? Can my non-believing character rely on luck to get him through?

Is life dealing a fair game or a rigged one? If it's rigged, what are the rules, and how can we exploit them to get a better deal?

A belief in luck is a form of bargaining over our fate. Bargaining is a manifestation of grief and of being unable to deal with our fear. We can always fit hidden causes to stories of conspicuous benefit or harm, just as we can fit conspiracy theories to any disaster.

In practice though, 90% of the species that ever existed on the planet are now extinct, and none of the great civilisations of a millennium ago have survived. All the lucky miners in the gold-rushes of the 1850s are now dead. All the economic booms that ever were have turned to bust, and each time speculators say 'this time is different'.

In the last century, millions of beautiful, healthy, well-behaved children went off to war to die, while sickly and criminal ones stayed home to survive.

So much for luck.

In the broader scheme of things there is no luck. There are opportunities we don't deserve, challenges we didn't personally create and the inevitable destruction of the things we love over appallingly short periods of time. There's no bargaining with that. All that remains is to deal with it.

Priene · Aug 25, 2008

To illustrate the difference between normal and Bayesian statistics.

The probability that a spouse-abuser will kill their partner is relatively low. Most spouse-abusers don't kill their partner.

(Normal statistics)

If an abused spouse has been killed, the probability that their partner was the one responsible for the killing is extremely high

(A Bayesian approach: you're looking at the circumstances in the death of a murderer individual. They were murdered and someone has to have done it, so evidence of prior abuse dramatically raises the possibility that the spouse was the perpetrator).

Higgins · Aug 25, 2008

Ruv Draba said:
In the last century, millions of beautiful, healthy, well-behaved children went off to war to die, while sickly and criminal ones stayed home to survive.

So much for luck.

Or you could try a Bayesian appraoch: if you are beautiful and healthy, don't be too well-behaved.

Ruv Draba · Aug 25, 2008

Higgins said:
Or you could try a Bayesian appraoch: if you are beautiful and healthy, don't be too well-behaved.

Generally, I've tried the reverse: behave badly in the hope that I'll be one of the more beautiful survivors.

oscuridad · Aug 25, 2008

As Ben Kenobi once said: 'in my experience there's no such thing as luck.'

I almost had a car crash the other day. Some dweeb pulled out right in front of me on a main road. I was doing about 40mph in a 2 ton flat fronted landrover. I skidded and swerved and missed him, just.

Where's the luck?
Bad luck 'cause I almost had an accident and felt crappy afterwards?
Good luck 'cause I didn't have an accident.
The other guy's good luck because if he had pulled out five seconds later he would have been dead, no question?
Good luck my brother didn't stay on the phone for another five seconds before I left?
Bad luck, 'cause if he hadn't phoned none of it would have happened?

Answer - none of the above. It was just something that happened. Just the way circumstances came together at that moment. Luck is just another anthropomorphism of an uncaring Universe.

Still, you've got to laugh.

veinglory · Aug 28, 2008

I think luck is perception cause by a number of phenomena including the clustering of random phenomena and the fact that almost nothing is random in the first place--we just don't have a good understanding of the causes.

Niniva · Aug 30, 2008

Grandfather's clock stopped because he wasn't there to wind it. They ALL stopped that way until batteries.

Luck is best seen, in real life, as preparation meeting opportunity. If you can create an opportunity and if you have rigorously prepared for that opportunity OTHERS will perceive you as lucky. Presidents often commented on the relationship between hard work and luck, but few people observe that it is always OTHERS who think you are lucky. You know how hard you have worked over several decades to become an instant success.

Tor Hershman · Oct 25, 2008

Luck does not exist.

May random chance seem to favor you.

Stay on groovin' safari,
Tor Hershman

Feel lucky? Well, do ya?

Mom'sWrite

Service with a smile

Higgins

Mom'sWrite

Service with a smile

Shadow_Ferret

Court Jester

Higgins

StephanieFox

Maybull the Bulldog

Death Wizard

Tumhe na koci puujetha

rugcat

Lost in the Fog

zornhau

Swordsman

Ruv Draba

Priene

Out to lunch

Higgins

Ruv Draba

oscuridad

veinglory

volitare nequeo

Niniva

Life is just a bowl of cherries...

Tor Hershman