According to this article, 400 oil fields from around the world will be intensively studied --including the secrecy-enshrouded fields of Saudi Arabia. All outputs for each field will be analyzed, as well as the projected depletion rates for them all. The scientists involved are already warning the rest of the industry that in all likelihood, when the report is completed, the results will probably be a far less optimistic as far as how much is actualy left in the ground than either they or anyone else had previously supposed. (They are essentially saying they will most likely downgrade the numbers they used to publish as far as what's left for drilling.)
Never before has such a planet-wide study ever been undertaken. We already have lots of hard data about Peak Oil, but THIS study will be the one that everyone will take notice of, and even the ANNOUNCEMENT last week of plans for the study caused a psychological reaction in the market.
The completed report is scheduled to be released this November (right in time for Christmas, guys).
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/05/22/oil.supplies.ap/index.html?iref=newssearch
Never before has such a planet-wide study ever been undertaken. We already have lots of hard data about Peak Oil, but THIS study will be the one that everyone will take notice of, and even the ANNOUNCEMENT last week of plans for the study caused a psychological reaction in the market.
The completed report is scheduled to be released this November (right in time for Christmas, guys).
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/05/22/oil.supplies.ap/index.html?iref=newssearch
Analysts foresee 'new world energy order'
Friday, May 23, 2008
Story Highlights
- Paris-based IEA fears there may not be enough oil to slake the world's thirst
- IEA is studying depletion rates at about 400 oil fields through to 2030
- Oil demand expected to shift more to China, India and the Middle East
- IEA's forecasts likely to further upset markets, with oil prices already at record high
PARIS, France (AP) -- A leading global energy monitor fears there may not be enough oil out there to slake the world's thirst -- and is preparing a landmark forecast that could reverberate through the global economy even as major companies announce fuel-related cutbacks.
The International Energy Agency is studying depletion rates at about 400 oil fields in a first-of-its-kind study of world oil supply, chief economist Fatih Birol said.
"We are entering a new world energy order, " Birol told The Associated Press.
Market analysts call the Paris-based IEA the world's most reliable independent source of oil information and welcomed its decision to undertake a deep study of oil supplies.
But the IEA's new forecasts are likely to further upset markets. Oil prices hit an all-time high Thursday above $135 a barrel before falling back.
Less oil would mean even higher prices for everything from gasoline to food.
...
Birol said the IEA study, whose results will be released in November, was prompted by concern about the volatility of world oil markets and uncertainty about supply levels.
"The prices are very high, and demand did not respond in the last few years as much as one would have expected," Birol said. "The growth in terms of production was not great. We did not see enough investment."
The spurt in oil prices Thursday came after a report in the Wall Street Journal that the IEA was planning to lower its forecast for long-term world supply.
Birol would not speculate on whether the forecast, which will predict supplies through 2030, could go sharply downward. "We will see," he said.
The IEA's past forecasts put oil supply at about 116 million barrels a day in 2030, up from 87 million barrels a day now.
"Although the agency's official assessment isn't expected until later this year, the market's interpretation is that global supply may be significantly tighter than previously projected by the major oil market monitors," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy trading advisory service Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.
...
Simon Wardell, oil analyst at Global Insight in London, was skeptical that the IEA would get a complete picture from "countries that are very closely guarded" such as Saudi Arabia, the No. 1 producer.
...
The IEA is part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which brings together 30 rich nations. It has no links to OPEC, and its review may challenge the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries' view that the world is well-supplied with oil.
Birol said the report is looking at onshore and offshore supplies -- including hard-to-reach wells in the deep sea.
He noted that Brazilian state oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA said Thursday it has struck more oil in waters near the huge offshore Tupi field -- but remained cautious about how much "good oil" such fields would produce.
...
CEO Jean-Cyril Spinetta said the soaring cost of fuel means the [airline] industry is in for a "profound transformation," predicting capacity reductions, the acceleration of mergers and the exit of some players from the market.
Ford Motor said Thursday it is cutting North American production of pickups and SUVs as car buyers eyeing record gas prices turn toward more fuel-efficient models. The automaker says it no longer expects to return to profitability by 2009 and didn't rule out layoffs and plant closures.