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Old 11-26-2012, 02:23 AM   #1
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Look, we all gotta die some time, right? How much longer can Fidel Castro last?

I'm not in any way wishing ill on the man. It's just that even though his longevity is astounding, we all do eventually kick the bucket. The dude is 86 years old. How much longer can he hang on?

http://www.examiner.com/video/fidel-...-and-well-cuba

So when his time finally comes ....

1) Who will take over? (His brother Raul? He's likeiwse over 80 years old himself! What is this?? Papal succession?? -- j/k)

2) How stable can the new Cuba be under a new ruler? (I've been told that the US military finds him to be a stabilizing presense in Cuba, and thus they've always been opposed to any hit squad taking the guy out. But once he's gone, "stable" may or may not be applicable any longer.)

3) Would the USA see fit at that point to lift its 50-year-long embargo against Cuba?

4) Any other questions you might care to pose?
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:27 AM   #2
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Hang on a second.... how many times have the American government tried to kill him?
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:31 AM   #3
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Hang on a second.... how many times have the American government tried to kill him?

I don't know about the American government, but the American press sure has tried quite a few times!
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:34 AM   #4
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I remember watching a documentary that said the CIA tried to kill him over twenty times. I understand the CIA isn't the military but still.....
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Old 11-26-2012, 03:10 AM   #5
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George Burns lived to 100. Irving Berlin to 101. Queen Elizabeth's mother to 104. All of them in pretty fair health.

Won't bet my house on Castro not being extant for another decade. Whether he will continue to exercise significant influence is another matter, and one the U.S. government could do a great deal to affect. Dropping the idiotic and anachronistic embargo would be step one. I can't see a single reason why, at this point, Fidel Castro's existence should matter. Nearly four decades ago Richard Nixon kicked open the door to Red China, with Chairman Mao still running the show.

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Old 11-26-2012, 03:38 AM   #6
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#3 depends on the answers to#s 1 & 2.

#4 involves a Dick Clark/Dorian Gray joke.
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Old 11-26-2012, 05:39 AM   #7
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I remember watching a documentary that said the CIA tried to kill him over twenty times. I understand the CIA isn't the military but still.....

I am curious as to how long ago their final attempt was before they gave up. Was it 1973 perhaps?

Seriously. His middle name is "stability." To wipe him out could mean that little island could totally explode with unrest. While some of the American Intelligence Old Guard just hates Communism nn the sheer principle of it, they have all pretty much realized --the Old Guard as well as the New Blood-- that he keeps Cuba quiet.

I can't imagine they tried any longer after Reagan left office. And I'd be more willing to bet their final attempt was late-60's, early 70's, but I'm willing to push it as late as the mid-1980's.
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Old 11-26-2012, 10:26 AM   #8
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The best way for us to have put Castro out of power would have been to stop blockading Cuba and allow open trade.

Unless people liked him. In which case, we'd at the very least have a friendly(ish) nation right off our coast, which would be nice.

But noooo, we had to fight the commies.

The Cold War still pisses me off.
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Old 11-26-2012, 12:03 PM   #9
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My favourite aunt is 86. She lives in Northern Alberta, goes swimming regularly, and shovels her own snow if the grandson doesn't get there fast enough.
She's looking to be good for a few more years, and I suspect Castro is, as well.
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:21 PM   #10
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Without knowing anything specific about Castro's medical conditions, we can say that the average life expectancy for a man of 86 is about 5 years. Possibly a bit less because those figures are probably for a western country, but possibly more because he'll have the very best treatment available in Cuba.
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:37 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mirandashell View Post
I remember watching a documentary that said the CIA tried to kill him over twenty times.
Are you thinking of the Channel 4 documentary, '638 Ways to Kill Castro?' There's also a useful Guardian article on it here.

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Originally Posted by Plot Device View Post
I can't imagine they tried any longer after Reagan left office. And I'd be more willing to bet their final attempt was late-60's, early 70's, but I'm willing to push it as late as the mid-1980's.
According to the Guardian piece, the latest significant attempt 'we know of' was 2000. One member of the assassination team was a former CIA operative.

This article also quotes the former head of the Cuban secret service as breaking down assassination attempts like this:
Quote:
the Eisenhower administration tried to kill Castro 38 times; Kennedy, 42; Johnson, 72; Nixon, 184; Carter, 64; Reagan, 197; Bush Sr., 16; Clinton, 21
I think you're absolutely right that it's not in the US's interests to assassinate Castro now, but the Guardian reports:
Quote:
As Wayne Smith, former head of the US interests section in Havana, pointed out recently, Cuba had the effect on the US that a full moon has on a werewolf.
I guess old habits die hard.
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Old 11-26-2012, 02:43 PM   #12
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I guess Castro's longevity illustrates the benefits of socialised medicine.

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Old 11-26-2012, 03:33 PM   #13
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Was it that many? Good lord.....

The US government is persistent, I'll say that.

Although some may call it obsessive.....
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Old 11-26-2012, 04:03 PM   #14
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He'll outlast one or two more presidents. Maybe outlive the same number. Carter and Bush I are both getting pretty ancient, aren't they?
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Old 11-26-2012, 04:05 PM   #15
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Just checked, they're both two years older than Castro. That makes his chances pretty good.
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Old 11-26-2012, 04:07 PM   #16
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It's those fine Cuban cigars, you know.
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Old 11-26-2012, 04:40 PM   #17
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I guess Castro's longevity illustrates the benefits of socialised medicine.

...for the elite it certainly does. He's one of those pigs who are more equal than the others, ubetcha.
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Old 11-26-2012, 05:06 PM   #18
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...for the elite it certainly does. He's one of those pigs who are more equal than the others, ubetcha.
I hear tourists are more equal, also. A friend of mine broke her foot while on holiday in Cuba (although that's almost a decade ago). Says she received excellent care. I don't know much about the level of care normal residents get.

Still, they're no. 36 in the world, when it comes to life expectancy, which ain't bad at all. Certainly when you consider the total health expenditure per capita is only $251.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Cuba
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Old 11-27-2012, 01:44 AM   #19
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Was it that many? Good lord.....

The US government is persistent, I'll say that.

Although some may call it obsessive.....
But not very effective.
And, we're only counting presidents. How many of the men actually doing the planning and implementation are still around?
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Old 11-27-2012, 01:47 AM   #20
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...for the elite it certainly does. He's one of those pigs who are more equal than the others, ubetcha.
Yeah.... cos if the American President fell ill, he wouldn't get the best treatment available immediately. He'd have to wait in the ER with the rest of you. Cos you know, the leader's not important to the country.

Ubetcha.
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Old 11-27-2012, 05:44 AM   #21
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Maybe I'm confused, but I thought that his brother had already been put into power...and apparently has since 2008?
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