There hasn't been too much time since the last elevation of a Pope, so I imagine the factions that existed then have the same influence now. I suspect , like raburrell, that this was a move to ensure a chosen successor instead of leaving it solely to the cardinals to decide. There is little doubt he is ill and his time is short, so I wish him peace. But the abdication is so rare that the motives are suspect.
If an Italian or a European is elected, you can bet that the church will continue on its current path. On the off chance that an African or Latin American is elected, more progressive doctrine is not guaranteed, but odds are better that poverty and injustice might become enemies of the RCC.
