I can't speak for rugcat but I took from his post that he feels that Paul's rhetoric is a form of "recycled states' rights arguments" (and then he backed up his argument with specific examples of Paul's anti-federalism) meaning that, regardless of Paul's actual views, his rhetoric is parroting the types of language used by past "states' rights" proponents. In the past, these types of arguments were often meant to play up fears (in Southerners) of an oppressive federal government and the rise of minorities (originally, for the South, the federal government was oppressive
because it forced the South to free their slaves).
This same type of language is used by many politicians today, many of whom are Southern. "States' rights" type of language isn't
just referring specifically to the word "secession." It's language that elicits, in certain people, fears related to oppressive federalism and minorities overtaking whites. The use of such language to foment such fears/bigotries in order to garner votes is a long-held republican strategy.
My point was that this "southern strategy" has morphed to now include bigotry against not just federalism and racial minorities, but also homosexuals (another minority), non-Christian religious groups (like Muslims), anti-science views (pro-creationism, anti-evolution and anti-climate change), and anti-abortion (Planned Parenthood now being the scapegoat). My point was an addendum and an expansion, not a replacement.
These are all strongly held beliefs throughout the South. That is not to say that such beliefs do not exist outside of the South (like in Arizona) or to say that such beliefs are not spreading. Certainly it's apparent that they are. That is only to say that the "states' rights" rhetoric is historically meant to play, specifically, to Southern fears and interests. If it works on people outside of the South, then I'm sure the politician using such rhetoric won't mind.
Furthermore, I'm having a hard time following your argument. First, you seem to take umbrage with rugcat's use of "states' rights" as applying to the South when you say, "Is it 'the South' we should be watching?...I don't think 'the South' captures the right variables for what we are looking at" yet then you contradict that last statement by saying, "I'm not denying that the tactic appeals to large portions of Southerners;"
That's the entire point; that it appeals to
large portions of Southerners. That doesn't rule out it also appealing to voters in
a few states outside of the South, but the South comprises roughly 13 states. Unless you can come up with more than just Arizona and Alaska, you're gonna be hard-pressed to prove your point that "states' rights"-type of rhetoric isn't meant to appeal mainly to the South.
To put it another way...dog food is made specifically for dogs (or "dawgs" if you're from GA). That doesn't mean that all dogs will like it or that some non-dogs won't. However, pointing out that a few cats also like dog food or that a few dogs don't doesn't in any way disprove that dog food is made specifically for dogs.
(that analogy isn't at all meant to imply that Southerners are "dogs." Some of us are Gators. Just means that I like dogs more than I like cats, and it was the first thing that popped into my mind).
I have not heard any news about Virginia talking about secession, no. Have you?
No, but I also haven't heard any news from Arizona talking secession, either (other than that silly law from a year ago stating that a panel could vote for AZ to not follow federal laws).
"States rights" is not a term that is meant, currently, to refer simply to "secession." I think that might be where your confusion here lies. It's a dog whistle term meant to stir up feelings of animosity toward minorities and the federal government, views that have been long-held in the South since the Civil War. Hell, even throwing around the term "secession" plays up to it.
If you believe that "states' rights" is referring specifically to states which have had representatives talk about secession, then why bring up Arizona as your example? The only secession talk coming from AZ has been democrats and some citizens groups talking of seceding from AZ because of Gov. Brewer's and the state congress' stupidity.
The only secession talk I've heard of (referring to secession from the Union) has been from Southern representatives (Rick Perry - TX and Zach Wamp - TN).
Arizona politics being explained as Republican politics is fine, except that it doesn't explain how the Southerner-states-rights part fits in.
I'm not sure how I can explain it any more clearly.
We're talking about the predictive value of that compared to other states.
Who's talking about "predictive value?" Predictive value of what?
We were talking about Ron Paul using language that rugcat feels is recycled states' rights rhetoric. I was agreeing. You disagreed that the language had much to do with the South ("I don't think 'the South' captures the right variables for what we are looking at"). I was articulating why you are wrong. But, as I said, just because it appeals to some people outside of the South does not in any way mean that it is not, historically, a tactic used to specifically appeal to Southern voters.
Michelle Bachman is what I'm talking about. Palin. Christine O'Donnell. I just think there are better facts to tie the phenomenon together than the Southerner-states-rights explanation.
Then that is the source of your confusion.
You are the one are talking about Michelle Bachman, Palin, and O'Donnell.
You are the one talking about some sort of "phenomenon."
Rugcat was talking about Ron Paul. He was simply talking about Paul's use of "states' rights" rhetoric concerning his issues and how that appeals to certain Southerners. You argued against that by saying that the South doesn't "capture the right variables." (I still don't know what that means).
However, your argument that, basically, "states' rights language appeals to more than the South" isn't in any way a refutation that "states' rights language is historically aimed directly at the South."
I think you're either confusing the original subject (by believing that "states' rights" only means "secession") or you're unintentionally conflating two different arguments (one regarding the historic use of states' rights rhetoric and the other regarding how such beliefs are seemingly spreading to other parts of the nation) and believing that they are the same argument.