Venezuelan elections 2013

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/10/world/americas/venezuela-election-set-for-april.html?_r=0

CARACAS, Venezuela — Venezuela will hold a special election on April 14 to choose a new president to complete the term of Hugo Chávez, the charismatic socialist who died last week after a battle with cancer.

Mr. Maduro is widely considered the favorite. He benefits from Mr. Chávez’s political machine, including a strong voter turnout program, access to government resources, which Mr. Chávez used unabashedly in his campaigns, and an outpouring of sentiment after the death of the president, who was adored with a religious fervor by many of his millions of followers.



Mr. Capriles likes to say that he has a record of beating Mr. Chávez’s vice presidents. In winning election as governor of Miranda State, he twice beat former vice presidents running against him, most recently in December.

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The race is on and the track doesn't look nice at all. One one side, you have Nicolás Maduro leading a more paranoid Chavismo who just got an emotional boost from the death of Hugo Chávez. On the other, a Capriles who has nothing to lose on a fairly unfair race.

Meanwhile, everyone's waiting for something to erupt sooner or later.

My prediction is that Maduro will win the elections but lose on the long way. Austerity measures and devaluation have been applied and the picture of what is coming on doesn't look pretty at all. Maduro doesn't seem like a capable leader to handle this without the charisma and leadership of Chávez and this will bring divisions within the Government Party, making Capriles and his boldness appear as the "I told you so" guy, prompting a nice foundation for the presidential elections in 2019.

If Capriles win he won't be able to rule the country, as simple as that.

If there's a reason why I would want Maduro elected is that he's too amusing for the wrong reasons. Today he sent a check to Chávez by tying a giant donation check with balloons. This weekend, he tried to make viral a dance poking fun to Capriles.

Capriles meanwhile hasn't done much except visiting communities around the country asking the people to not give up. He has the goal but needs a better hook. Still, not much to expect in such uneven race.

Kaiser-Kun said:

How much was the flying paycheck worth? And was it addressed to Chavez? If not, it might benefit some lucky dude when it lands.

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285 millions US dollars. The earnings of The National Phone Company in 2012 as a way to "repay" him. Though a closer look reveals it was done for "The glorious and revolutionay people of Venezuela".

Well, those are a big pair of shoes to fulfill...

Capriles has been somewhat unremarkable. Pretty much a more aggresive rehash of his previous campaign. Meanwhile, Maduro has gone on full Batshit Crazy mode:

Link

The acting president and presidential candidate of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro assures Hugo Chavez appeared to him as a "very small bird" to give him his blessing as the beginning of the election campaign kicks off on Tuesday.

According to various media and news agencies, from Chavez's childhood home in Barinas, west side of Venezuela, Maduro explained, "I felt him there, like he was giving us his blessing, saying: ‘Today the battle starts. Go to the victory. You have our blessings.’ That is how I felt it in my soul."

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Last month in a televised show Maduro also stated that the election of Argentinian Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio has a lot to do with the former Venezuelan leader’s death.

“I don't know, we know that our ‘commander’ rose to the heights and is face to face with Christ. He must've influenced somehow to convene a South American Pope. Some new hand arrived and Christ said, 'Well, it is the time for South America,’” he said at the time.

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You know, I haven't talked much about Capriles. I really don't like him all that much. I think he's bland and too keen on buzzwords. Last night for example, they had him in Venezuela's main Talk Show and asked him about Margaret Thatcher and he gave the most generic perspective: "A woman who earned her place in history by the deeds she did." Capriles feels more of a "feel good" somewhat revanchist attitude about the whole ordeal.

The more I see them I realize both candidates offer not so different views: They both have emotional, traditionalist discourse on how they will fix things without saying how. It's worse for Maduro since he must fix things while also selling the idea of continuity of Chavismo so it ends up as: "We must fix the country, although they are not as bad as THEM want it to be since Chávez fixed the country already. The country is pretty good, not all that good, though."

Elections are this Sunday. Capriles has risen in polls, but is not enough. I do believe it will be a close race, though.

Maduro won with less than 1% (>300,000 votes)

And... Capriles is not recognizing the 1,5 difference! He asks a hand recount! We're heading Florida territory here, folks!

rugcat said:

Maduro was the hand picked successor to Chavez, yes? Wouldn't a part of that vote be due to respect and the memory of Chavez?

And if Maduro is unable to solve Venezuela's problems, will he still have support or will people quickly turn against him in a way they wouldn't if it was Chavez?

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Yes. In his last broadcast, Chávez specifically requested people to please vote for Maduro and his entire campaign was based on keeping the legacy of Chávez. This reached as far as having posters showing the face of Chávez and only naming Maduro.

Sarpedon said:

If the election hadn't been so rushed, Maduro probably would have lost. What is up with holding a presidential election on a one month notice?

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It's on the law. When the president dies before reaching the half of his term as Chávez did, elections are called within a month. It's one of those things that the Venezuelan constitution says because it sounds so progressive in theory but are actually a mess to do.

Considering Capriles was 15 points below Maduro when the campaign started, this is quite an accomplishment. Comparing to the last election 6 months ago, The Opposition won 700,000 voters and Chavismo lost 700,000 votes.

Williebee said:

If it comes to a hand count, methinks Maduro owns more of the counting hands.

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Even when one of the Electoral Council requested the hand count and there are reports of voting ballots found on dumpsters, sewers and in middle of the road the Electoral Council apparently will go ahead and name Maduro president today in the afternoon.

Kaiser-Kun said:

Here's 800 kaiserbucks saying that he'll fund the Primera Iglesia Comunista del Santo Chávez.

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Too late.

Sarpedon said:

Did Chavez write the constitution himself?

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He called the constitutional convention to draft it in 1999 and was done under his guidance and thought:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Venezuela

The Washington Post's editoral about Venezuela's current situation.

I thought it was a bit incendiary.