I see your point but there seems to be a perpencity here to refute people who have proven track records in self-publshing. After all they can never be anything more than outliers. When I want to learn how to play tennis well, I go to someone who is a good tennis player. Why the perpencity not to listen to those that are doing well?
Actually, that's not true at all. If we're asking how to self-publish and what not, the first people I would turn to would be those who have done it successfully. It's when people who self-publish make comments about the industry in general or try to use their experiences to generalize to commercial publishing or argue that things are different in commercial publishing, etc., I'm going to expect those opinions to be well-supported when they're going up against those who work and live every day in the industry.
The commercial publishing sphere is related to but not the same as the self-publishing sphere. In much the same way, I do (believe it or not) listen to people's experiences and try to see where they're coming from and how self-publishing is working out for others. I follow dgaughran's progress and have spoken to him about what he's done and how he's doing it privately, and I wouldn't refute his experiences. Similarly, if I chose to self-publish I can think of three or four people on here I would turn to in order to learn more about the process and ask advice, etc.
Thanks for proving my point above...you trust those with years of experience in the "old model" but disregard real-world experience of those sucessful in the "new model".
Again, not true. We're talking in this thread about commercial publishing and how viable a self-published book is in that world. So yes, I'm going to listen to those in the industry working with editors and publishers every day and those who make the decisions on whether to pick those up, etc.
There is also experience to consider. I'm going to listen to all arguments, but if someone says "I've been doing this for twenty years and this is how things work" and someone else says "I've been doing this a year and I know how things are," I'm going to put the burden of proof on the latter and a little more trust in the person doing it for twenty years.
What we have here is a situation where people are making comments about commercial publishing that contradicts the statements of the experts who work in the industry. That means those statements need to have something to back them up. Does that mean they're wrong? Not at all. What it does mean is that, when faced with two conflicting opinions, it's only logical to go with the one that has more experience.
I also think your "new model" and "old model" is pretty indicative of exactly the type of thinking I find a little faulty in the first place. I'm sure you'll disagree with me on this, but the model is changing and it's a lot more amorphous than that. We saw tape players turn to cds turn to mp3s and there was no major collapse of the record industry.
What we're seeing is a shift in the format in which books are bought. That entails a lot of growing pains and sorting of new contracts, etc., but my guess (and no, you don't have to believe me because this is just opinion) is that the new model is going to look a lot like the old model with a few more open doors.
Old Hack mentioned it before, and I've mentioned it before I went on vacation. There's this attitude that commercial publishing is made up of old dinosaurs who aren't changing and the self-publishers are the new guys who "get it." Commercial publishers aren't dinosaurs, they aren't likely to go the wayside.
A new self-publisher has every right to their experience and to share their experience, and their experience might even start to become representative of the average self-publisher (it's too early to tell). Drawing conclusions about the way commercial publishing is going based on those experiences? Not quite as valid, particularly when the experts disagree.
Truth be told, my own thought is that I expect there to continue to be paradigm shifts in self-publishing, with commercial remaining largely the same. No idea if those shifts will be to the average author's benefit or not, but if anything is moving too quickly to make long-term bets, it's self-publishing.
Yes, they are changing "that fast". Which is at the crux of this arguement. We now have agents becomming publishers, retailers becoming publishers, ebooks outselling paperback and hardcover combined on Amazon, self-published authors making hundreds of thousands of dollars. It is all changing at lightning speed and those that continue to cling to the "old wisdom" are the ones in real danger of being caught with their pants down.
See, this is the whole "old wisdom" thing again. Yes, things are changing. A lot of people are trying to take advantage of those changes and the fact that no one has any idea what's going to happen. Some people are afraid there's going to be a major shift and don't want to be left behind. Others see doors opening up in new areas and want to exploit those. Cool, that's life. Business is like that. Twenty years ago you didn't need an agent to be published big and now you do. When I first started doing research into publishing, before the big take-off in self-publishing, it was always said you couldn't look at what was done five or even three years ago because the industry just evolves that quickly. It's always changing and it's always changing quickly. This one's just more obvious and getting more screen-time.
Yes, people might be caught with their pants down, and initially it looked like it, but the major publishers are still selling the majority of ebooks. The number of ebooks sold by Random House have been going up something like 264% a month. They're not out of the loop, and as agents keep pushing for it, terms and contracts are probably going to start leaning more in the author's favor again.
What's happened is that new doors have opened up to authors who can't find a publisher: they now have the viable option to do it themselves without going bankrupt. That's what's new. Will that impact commercial publishing? Probably. Does it mean commercial publishers are way out of the loop and have no idea what's going on and are twiddling their thumbs while refusing to believe that this whole ebook craze will last? No.
As for commercial publishing not knowing what to do. They are now starting to sort things out. An overriding sentiment I heard over and over again at BEA was that last year they were indeed clueless and flondering. That was coming from their mouths - not mine. But they are feeling more comfortible now and starting to make changes. Just another example that things will be changing very quickly as they are now starting to adjust to the new environment.
Yup, last year was a strange year and everyone was fighting contracts and formats, etc. But how many people were touting self-publishing last year compared to this year? How many people this time last year were on Amazon's bestseller lists? Self-publishers have just recently been getting their acts together with this as well. Everyone says that it's only in the past few months that sales really started taking off. You can't argue that commercial publishers were figuring things out while the self-publishers were making a killing and had it all when that's an incredibly recent development in and of itself.
If anything, everyone was caught with their pants down, and a few intrepid souls ventured out and took what they could get. Those intrepid souls are the ones who laid the groundwork and are the reason ebooks and self-publishing have gained popularity in the past several months.
I think what you are seeing is people explaining models and paradigms that they have become accustomed to. They were relevant until VERY VERY recently. But now it's time to start listening to people riding the edge of the adoption curve not the laggards.
Here's the problem: People are saying they've changed and nothing is the same. Those saying that are the self-publishers. Now they're saying the rules don't apply to commercial publishing and everything is different. At the same time, consider that means commercial publishing is currently running things differently, which would mean those involved with it would be aware of all those differences.
Essentially, you're saying that commercial publishing doesn't work the same way as it did before and then telling the people who work in that field who say "no, actually it's like this" that they're wrong and you know better. My question is why do you know better? Because you're observing from the outside? Because you're assuming? Because you think that's how it should be or will be in the future? What do you have to base it on?
You might be right about some of the changes, but it's too early right now to predict what's going to happen with any degree of accuracy. Maybe self-publishers will take over the world and destroy the big bad publishers and keep everything for themselves. Maybe self-publishing will crash and burn and take ebooks down with it. Or maybe things will stay pretty much the same with a new format opening up doors to new readers and new writers.
People have been publishing books on podcasts for years. Those people have occasionally been picked up by commercial publishers when they've become popular enough. That doesn't mean, as a general rule, that commercial publishers actively go looking for podcast novels or that putting your novel on a podcast is a good way to get a book deal. We're seeing new opportunities and yes things will change and I'm sure some of what you're predicting might be right. Self-published books might find themselves having an easier time getting picked up in the future. Does that mean that publishers will start disregarding the number of books sold when making that decision? Unlikely.
But the analogy doesn't fit. Of course you don't listen to someone who has a piece of paper but no knowledge on the subject. But when I speak, its not "theory" it is "real, hands-on experience. If I couldn't sell my way out of a paperbag then of course you shouldn't listen to me. The differnece is when I run across someone who is making big sales I immediately want to pick their brains. When a resource comes here and "offers" knowledge it is as welcome as the mess a neighbor's dog leaves on your front lawn.