Gun crime has plunged, but Americans think it's up, says study

kuwisdelu · May 7, 2013

Michael Wolfe said:
The groups most likely to believe that gun violence is up are also the ones less likely to listen to the NRA, imo.

I'm not sure about that either. In order to believe that stopping a bad guy with a gun requires a good guy with a gun, and that you need to buy a gun in order to be that good guy with a gun, you kind of need to believe there are enough bad guys with guns around to justify needing your own gun.

...typing that made my brain hurt.

Michael Wolfe · May 7, 2013

blacbird said:
For which your evidence is . . . ?

caw

Well, the article noted the groups that were more likely to believe that gun violence is up.

Women, people of color and the elderly were more likely to believe that gun crime was up than men, younger adults or white people.

But support for the NRA tends to be more prevalent among white males, no?

muravyets · May 7, 2013

Michael Wolfe said:
There is probably some truth to this, but I don't think it tells the whole picture. The groups most likely to believe that gun violence is up are also the ones less likely to listen to the NRA, imo.

Not necessarily. The NRA's entire theme recently has been that crime is ever present, terrorism is ever present, tyranny is at our throats, only guns can save us, etc, etc. The people most likely to listen to the NRA are being told daily that gun crime is up and that's why they have to buy more guns to protect themselves from it.

Michael Wolfe · May 7, 2013

kuwisdelu said:
I'm not sure about that either. In order to believe that stopping a bad guy with a gun requires a good guy with a gun, and that you need to buy a gun in order to be that good guy with a gun, you kind of need to believe there are enough bad guys with guns around to justify needing your own gun.

...typing that made my brain hurt.

I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. One can certainly believe that there's a general need to own a gun without believing that gun crime is on the rise.

kuwisdelu · May 7, 2013

Michael Wolfe said:
I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. One can certainly believe that there's a general need to own a gun without believing that gun crime is on the rise.

True. But if there were no gun crime, wanting a gun for self-defense would be pretty silly, IMO.

I'm sure some Americans can prove me wrong...

Michael Wolfe · May 7, 2013

muravyets said:
Not necessarily. The NRA's entire theme recently has been that crime is ever present, terrorism is ever present, tyranny is at our throats, only guns can save us, etc, etc. The people most likely to listen to the NRA are being told daily that gun crime is up and that's why they have to buy more guns to protect themselves from it.

It's a part of the NRA theme, no doubt. It's not the whole theme. The sad truth is that the NRA relies on so many different things to justify gun ownership, not just crime. For example, when gun sales rose after the Sandy Hook shooting, I think one reason for that was the fear that gun regulation was coming, that people wouldn't be able to buy guns anymore. And I think the NRA was a big part of stoking that concern.

benbradley · May 7, 2013

Zoombie said:
I mean, it's great that gun crime is down. I'm glad, I'm really really glad!

But that does NOT mean that I don't want to see it go even lower.

(And, you know, it could be that gun control wouldn't help two bits. I haven't been convinced of this, but I once was, and I may be again, if more evidence is thrown at me)

I'd rather see the causes of higher numbers of death go down by the same percentage.

Fasten your seatbelt.

muravyets · May 7, 2013

Michael Wolfe said:
It's a part of the NRA theme, no doubt. It's not the whole theme. The sad truth is that the NRA relies on so many different things to justify gun ownership, not just crime. For example, when gun sales rose after the Sandy Hook shooting, I think one reason for that was the fear that gun regulation was coming, that people wouldn't be able to buy guns anymore. And I think the NRA was a big part of stoking that concern.

I agree, but fear of being on the receiving end of violence is at the root of all of it, whether it is from criminals or the government. I wouldn't say the NRA audience is the sole or even primary demographic thinking gun crime is on the rise, but I think fear-mongering rhetoric such as the NRA doles out adds to the general pessimism that goes with hard times. For many people, when things are bad, expectations and perceptions of badness expand to cover more and more aspects of life. We become hyper-aware of the things that stress us, and see them as bigger than they are.

So, while the perceptions of women, PoC and the elderly may vary with the realities in the places they live, their perceptions may also vary with their own relative feelings of vulnerability. The NRA, for its audience, aggressively stokes feelings of vulnerability, too. Just having so many pronouncements of imminent doom blaring from the media all the time can also color the views of non-NRA supporters. I think it all adds to the general national viewpoint.

Michael Wolfe · May 7, 2013

muravyets said:
I agree, but fear of being on the receiving end of violence is at the root of all of it, whether it is from criminals or the government. I wouldn't say the NRA audience is the sole or even primary demographic thinking gun crime is on the rise, but I think fear-mongering rhetoric such as the NRA doles out adds to the general pessimism that goes with hard times. For many people, when things are bad, expectations and perceptions of badness expand to cover more and more aspects of life. We become hyper-aware of the things that stress us, and see them as bigger than they are.

So, while the perceptions of women, PoC and the elderly may vary with the realities in the places they live, their perceptions may also vary with their own relative feelings of vulnerability. The NRA, for its audience, aggressively stokes feelings of vulnerability, too. Just having so many pronouncements of imminent doom blaring from the media all the time can also color the views of non-NRA supporters. I think it all adds to the general national viewpoint.

Absolutely. It's important to recognize that we're dealing with a confluence of factors, imo.

And as I said to Blacbird, I think he's right, that the NRA really does benefit from this misperception about gun crime. But the broader reality--imo--is that any group can use that sort of misperception to its advantage.

For some, the response to the idea that gun crime is on the rise is to buy a gun. And the NRA and gun manufacturers benefit from that. For some, the response is that more gun regulation is needed. And the NRA and gun manufacturers don't want that, at all.

So, it's pretty nuanced, imo.

kuwisdelu · May 7, 2013

Michael Wolfe said:
For some, the response to the idea that gun crime is on the rise is to buy a gun. And the NRA and gun manufacturers benefit from that. For some, the response is that more gun regulation is needed. And the NRA and gun manufacturers don't benefit from that, at all.

Except the NRA and its ilk are too politically powerful for any legislation truly hurtful to them to ever pass.

They win either way.

Michael Wolfe · May 7, 2013

kuwisdelu said:
Except the NRA and its ilk are too politically powerful for any legislation truly hurtful to them to ever pass.

They win either way.

Well, that's largely been true. But even so, it seems pretty clear that gun crime is the main reason why support for gun regulation is there in the first place. And that's the gist of what I'm trying to emphasize more than anything--that people can look at the same thing (gun crime) and reach very different conclusions about what to do about it, and thus use gun crime as justification for the policies they favor, pretty much regardless of what those policies are.

And I think support for the NRA's policies is on the decline, generally speaking. Though their actual influence does seem to be steady, for now at least.

Maxx · May 8, 2013

Don said:
Courtesy of the Los Angeles Times:

The demographics are kinda interesting, too.

Gee, why would the general perception be the exact opposite of reality? Who could possibly benefit from such perceptions?

The nature of threats (in reality or as perceived) can change in ways that are not necessarily reflected in overall statistics. For example, it is possible that a certain level of acceptance of gun violence breaks down the societal strictures against shooting a classroom full of first-graders. People who find this disturbing may think -- possibly quite correctly -- that the nature of gun violence has changed due to the acceptance of a certain level of gun violence for some period of time. It might also be that the simple number and firepower of the available weapons has increased so much that no one at all is reasonably safe from any kind of attack. Perhaps the NRA could be bribed to remove the guns -- which would most definitely cut the likelihood of any particular type of attack.

veinglory · May 8, 2013

We know risk assessment is affected by exposure, including media. I expect media coverage of shootings has gone up and up even as the actual number of shootings has declined.

Don · May 8, 2013

Don said:
Gee, why would the general perception be the exact opposite of reality? Who could possibly benefit from such perceptions?

Zoombie said:
The gun corporations selling guns to scared citizenry?

Cause, as far as I can tell, they're selling guns like hotcakes and the legislation that would curtail that got curbstomped.

Zoombie got the first part almost immediately. That's an easy call. You gotta throw the NRA in with that bunch, too.

robeiae said:
Politicians who want to use fear to gain/hold power.

If there isn't a crisis to use, manufacture one. And then...never let a good crisis go to waste. Someone important said that, I think.

...and robeiae finished the second half of the equation.

The gun control debate is a textbook example of crony capitalism in operation. The politicians pretend to do something, the manufacturers and special interest groups pretend to be outraged, legislation is intentionally designed to be as toothless as possible when it comes to impacting the manufacturers, and whenever possible, actually exacerbate the problem (see also: Affordable Healthcare Act) yet give the appearance of "doing something to solve the problem," all the while screwing over the individual in whatever way is deemed necessary, frightening as many people as possible, and fostering an "us vs. them" mentality so we never get together and see who's really doing the screwing. The background deals cut will never see the light of day.

"Selling guns 'n' ammo, or selling health insurance? We've got legislation to help you out, at affordable prices!"

Ken · May 8, 2013

... except for one thing.

Many guns used in crimes are NOT bought in shops,
but on the blackmarket. And nobody profits from those sales except criminals.

Don · May 8, 2013

Ken said:
... except for one thing.

Many guns used in crimes are NOT bought in shops,
but on the blackmarket. And nobody profits from those sales except criminals.

There was still an initial sale. Guns don't grow on trees, or on 3D printers to any extent yet.

cornflake · May 8, 2013

veinglory said:
We know risk assessment is affected by exposure, including media. I expect media coverage of shootings has gone up and up even as the actual number of shootings has declined.

This. People think child abductions/killings by strangers is a huge problem in this country. I've seen people on other, general forums, on about how a few decades ago, you could let kids play outside and roam around on their bikes but it's just not safe today! It's actually statistically much safer in a general violent crime sense, and the rate of stranger abductions/killings/molestations of children isn't on the rise either, but the coverage of it all certainly has been.

Same as people believe strangers are the dangerous child molesters, when it's vastly more likely to be people who aren't strangers at all, etc.

Same as that 'summer of the shark' or whatever Newsweek dubbed it, when shark attacks got a bunch of coverage because there were a few gruesome ones off the U.S. coast. I remember a study showing people thought shark attacks were way up, becoming a huge problem, etc., when there'd been no rise in anything but coverage. Slow news summer.

Ken · May 8, 2013

Don said:
There was still an initial sale. Guns don't grow on trees, or on 3D printers to any extent yet.

... you've got a point there.
But it doesn't entirely obliterate mine ;-)

(No comment about the 3D printers, other than WOW and YIKES!)

veinglory · May 8, 2013

Ken said:
... except for one thing.
Many guns used in crimes are NOT bought in shops,
but on the blackmarket. And nobody profits from those sales except criminals.

At least around in Chicago they are generally seem to be bought in shops by "straw purchasers". These people buy guns to sell on illegally at huge mark-ups, and for some it is their sole source of income. Certain stores are notorious for being willing to sell to people who are clearly planning to "lose" dozens of guns over a short time period. I've never owned a gun in my life, but I still know which are the loosey goosey Chicago gun shops.

Ken · May 8, 2013

veinglory said:
At least around in Chicago they are generally seem to be bought in shops by "straw purchasers". These people buy guns to sell on illegally at huge mark-ups, and for some it is their sole source of income. Certain stores are notorious for being willing to sell to people who are clearly planning to "lose" dozens of guns over a short time period. I've never owned a gun in my life, but I still know which are the loosey goosey Chicago gun shops.

... that's something that clearly could be cracked down on,
if only politicians would enforce a few more restrictions,
to prevent straw purchases from being made.
Just a bit of legislation would eliminate that.
And make the streets substantially safer.

Don · May 8, 2013

Ken said:
... that's something that clearly could be cracked down on,
if only politicians would enforce a few more restrictions,
to prevent straw purchases from being made.
Just a bit of legislation would eliminate that.
And make the streets substantially safer.

I'm too lazy to look it up, but some ridiculous percentage of weapons used in crimes come from some ridiculously low percentage of the gun shops. Yet there's no apparent effort to focus enforcement efforts on those shops and/or pull their FFL for egregious violation.

Xelebes · May 8, 2013

Don said:
I'm too lazy to look it up, but some ridiculous percentage of weapons used in crimes come from some ridiculously low percentage of the gun shops. Yet there's no apparent effort to focus enforcement efforts on those shops and/or pull their FFL for egregious violation.

You have to remember that there is laws and restrictions in funding that are protecting those shops.

Bartholomew · May 8, 2013

Don said:
Courtesy of the Los Angeles Times:

The demographics are kinda interesting, too.

Gee, why would the general perception be the exact opposite of reality? Who could possibly benefit from such perceptions?

Some stats.

http://bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf#page=27

It's great that gun deaths are down from the astronomically, war-like numbers they'd reached in the 90's.

2008 saw some 8000 handgun homicides. Let's compare that to some other stats.

http://icasualties.org/oef/ByTheatre.aspx

That's 2126 deaths for the entirety of Operation Enduring Freedom, starting in 2001 and going until 2013.

Frankly, I question the motives of that article and of this thread.

_Sian_ · May 9, 2013

Wait, so there are more gun related homicides in America each year than there were soldiers that died in Afghanistan?

....maybe it has something to do with the number of people involved? It would be easier to compare percentages of a population. Because my first thought was "holy crap", and then I thought about the number of people fighting in Afghanistan vs the number of people in America.

robeiae · May 9, 2013

There are more people fighting in Detroit and Chicago alone, than in Afghanistan.

Gun crime has plunged, but Americans think it's up, says study

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