Predictions for Publishing in 2012 from Mark Coker...

I couldn't even finish the article. "Self-publishing gold rush"... "dirty business that is publishing"... this guy's gotta be living on a different planet.

I read the article; its author makes the case that there will soon be a bloom in self-publishing, which will not necessarily topple the big publishing companies, but will eventually make old fashion rules in the publishing business obsolete.

dangerousbill said:

As Mr. Smashwords, he's got a personal investment in self publishing, and he's going to see it with that slant.

Click to expand...

He also pushes his book more than once in the article.

He's got a dog in the fight to promote more self-publishing, he makes money on it.

Though I'd expect this sort of thing from Joe Konrath. He seems to have gotten quieter as other self-pub gurus are rising up to take his place...

I didn't see him covering quality issues with self-published books. I read the whole thing and it was very long. I might have skimmed a part or two. But his emphasis was continuously focused on great self-published e-books taking over their fair amount of market share, and eventually eclipsing print titles. He says 45% boost in 2013? I don't think it will go that high.

I'm a new self-published author and I think a massive glut of self-published e-books in 2013 will bring down the house. Hell, it's already happening now. I'd say 99% of all the self-publishers that come late to this game are not going to benefit. And I'm not being a doom peddler. I wish it wasn't headed that way. I'm going by all the experienced old-time pubbers on the Kindle Boards who are reporting some very uninspiring stats and figures, and these people have been at it from the ground floor, and many others for two or three years. These people have multiple books and stories listed on Amazon--in many cases dozens, and most of them in series. They got into this very early when this concept was a babe--low prices, giveaways and sparse competition. Those are your success stories both past and present.

Those old-timers aren't reporting tragedy, but are worried about slowing sales, with a trend that keeps dropping in small increments. But, nevertheless, dropping.

I have a very savvy small press publishers who pays high on cover, has multiple sales outlets, attends every conference and show imaginable, puts out only the best quality--and my title with him has just beat the living snot out of my self-published book, both in copies sold and sales. Granted the trade title has been out for some time, but I can see their histories from day 1 and make the comparison. My 70% royalty means nothing if I can't move even a book a week.

Wow, I haven't seen any of those predictions before. Well, not more than a hundred times each, anyway.