Precious Metals

kdnxdr

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Disclaimer: I am one of the most ignorant people on earth. But, I do have a question.

Recently, I was perusing a magazine in the doc-office, I think it was Science Discovery or something like that, and I came across a very interesting article on rare and precious metals - I think it was about the most important/critical 7.

Several things really stood out to me:

1) We cannot have modern technology/industry without these metals.

2) They are QUITE costly and so rare that they are mostly controlled by one entity/country/government

3) Most of them seemed to be controlled by China.

4) I believe it was in the 90's when China drove the cost of Platinum up to over $1,000 an ounce (can you wrap your head around that?) that thieves who were stealing catalytic converters to harvest platinum were getting up to $10.000 an ounce because there is some very critical technology that absolutely cannot exist without the platinum (I think they said the LCD - flat screen tv's which if you don't have a certain type of television now, you will not be able to receive digital communications which all communications is definately going to become. A forced market with highly controlled necessary resources. Yikes! It seems there quite a few things politically/economically synchronize with the control of these precious/rare metals.

5) Once again, we are at the mercy of China in economic trade.

It was this month's issue of the magazine and I highly recommend everyone to read the article which is actually just an overview and brief, but powerful when you think of all it's implications.

Oh yeah, after thinking about it....it seems to me that oil is just another "wag the dog".

The question is: What do you think about the affect of precious/rare metals on the political/economic world climate?
 
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Plot Device

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I am a Peak Oil follower. But there is also something else called "peak everything."

PeakEverything_1_bookcover.jpg


The Peak Everything doomsters say that Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard is going bare of absolutely everything (not just the oil). Copper is getting harder to find. And even iron ore -- we have used up the really nice grades of iron ore, and now we're sadly going after the dregs of the geologic layers as far as our iron reserves go. This means the quality of all kinds of steel instruments of today's making are inferior to steel items from 40 years ago. We're also looking at shortages in global supplies of phosphorous, so several European nations have been installing public toilets which harvest the phosphorous out of human urine.



BTW -- I don't know if the word "precious" is correct. I believe "rare" or else "scarce" might be the better word. I'm pretty sure "precious" is a term reserved for a special group of only about four metals in the world which never rust or corrode in any way (gold, silver, platinum and something else).




But yes, your original concern is more than valid: resource scarcity leads to political struggle which can also lead to military struggle which leads to we're screwed.

Meanwhile, some Peak Oil people are screaming for more wind turbines and more solar panels. But while wind turbines are great, they are composed of very exotic alloys which can't be achieved outside of a super high temperature industrial smelter. So between the difficulty in getting the base metals for smelthing, and then the fuel (oil/gas) needed to get the smelter up to temperature, those wind turbines might no longer be possible after another 30 years. Ditto for the unique materials and high temperatures that go into making solar panels.

So ... we're screwed. And by "we" I mean the entire human race and life as we know it. (See my signature.)





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aquacat

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There are technically more than four precious metals. The main ones are gold, silver and platinum. Then there are the metals in the platinum family: palladium, rhodium, iridium and two or three others.
 

blacbird

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4) I believe it was in the 90's when China drove the cost of Platinum up to over $1,000 an ounce (can you wrap your head around that?)

Platinum has long been well over 1K per ounce. It closed today at about $1219. Had nothing to do with the Chinese.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/liveplatinum.html

The U.S. investment market recognizes four elemental "precious" metals: Gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Platinum is always the most expensive, followed in descending order by gold, palladium and silver. Gold is usually the most volatile in price, because it has the fewest industrial uses and is therefore more subject to investor speculation.

As for people stealing platinum (or palladium, which is also important) from things like catalytic converters, a far more widespread practice is people stealing copper from power lines. That practice is regularly fatal, too.

Back in the 1970s, the Hunt brothers, of Texas and Kansas City football ownership fame, and long-time close friends and business associates of that other famous Texas family, the Bushes, tried to corner the market on silver. In a matter of weeks, they artificially drove the price to over $50 per ounce, before the scheme collapsed, and the price went back to less than $5. A lot of dumb speculators lost their underwear in that debacle. It has never been anywhere near $50 since. Today, silver closed at $14.20 (below), which essentially means it has only followed the inflationary price rise for the last 30+ years, maybe not even that.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

The prices of these commodities are always based on "futures", meaning that the traders are guessing that the price at the delivery date, two or three months down the road, will be higher, and they can make a profit. The industrial value of the metals (or oil, or anything else traded in this manner) is a vague combination of some kind of floor value, below which it is unlikely to go, plus an even more vague "premium" guessed at by the community of investment traders.

caw

caw
 

Zoombie

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There's this thing called "outer space"

Its kinda got everything Earth has save for environments to get screwed up by strip mining. Mercury alone has enough metal and solar energy to provide for us for centuries. CENTURIES.

The trick is getting there. There are various solutions being tossed around.

Now, we either make it and I get to laugh at Plot Device for being (yet another) doomsayer forced to live in a world with constantly increasing standards of living, or we don't make it and he can laugh at me for being optimistic.

Win/Win!

Well...

More like Win/Horribly losing, but...whatever.
 

Plot Device

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There's this thing called "outer space"

Its kinda got everything Earth has save for environments to get screwed up by strip mining. Mercury alone has enough metal and solar energy to provide for us for centuries. CENTURIES.

The trick is getting there. There are various solutions being tossed around.

Now, we either make it and I get to laugh at Plot Device for being (yet another) doomsayer forced to live in a world with constantly increasing standards of living, or we don't make it and he can laugh at me for being optimistic.

Win/Win!

Well...

More like Win/Horribly losing, but...whatever.


Last time I checked, Plot Device was a woman. :D
 

Zoombie

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<grumbles>

The terms man and woman are going to be meaningless within a century if current genetic research continues in projected patterns...

We might as well get used to it and replace man and woman with woamanman, and him/her with shim, he and she with shehe, and so on.
 

blacbird

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There's this thing called "outer space"

Its kinda got everything Earth has save for environments to get screwed up by strip mining. Mercury alone has enough metal and solar energy to provide for us for centuries. CENTURIES.

The trick is getting there.

And getting back with the goods.

Now, we either make it and I get to laugh at Plot Device for being (yet another) doomsayer forced to live in a world with constantly increasing standards of living, or we don't make it and he can laugh at me for being optimistic.

Or we can do a lot of hallucinogenic drugs.

caw