Solar/Wind power will handle 99% of the grid by 2030

Zoombie

Dragon of the Multiverse
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Dec 24, 2006
Messages
40,775
Reaction score
5,947
Location
Some personalized demiplane
http://phys.org/news/2012-12-solar-power-paired-storage-cost-effective.html

And once again, my laptop is refusing to copy-pasta. I don't know why.

So, the basic gist is that a new model for planning solar/wind power generation has figured out a way to handle 99% of the grid and it could be implemented by 2030.

And...according to the article, the projected costs are based off solar/wind power WITHOUT government subsidies. Meaning we might have loads of "invisible savings" as we no longer rely on subsidies in oil companies.

So...

That's pretty neat.
 

Monkey

Is me.
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Apr 12, 2007
Messages
9,119
Reaction score
1,881
Location
Texas, usually
Maybe *that's* why Donald Trump has been attacking wind power on twitter all morning.
 

blacbird

Super Member
Registered
Joined
Mar 21, 2005
Messages
36,987
Reaction score
6,158
Location
The right earlobe of North America
And...according to the article, the projected costs are based off solar/wind power WITHOUT government subsidies. Meaning we might have loads of "invisible savings" as we no longer rely on subsidies in oil companies.

For electrical power generation, the U.S. doesn't rely on oil. The largest percentage of U.S. power generation is from coal-fired plants, with natural gas and nuclear ranking second and third, by percentage. The major use of petroleum is for vehicle fuels.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation

caw
 

Monkey

Is me.
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Apr 12, 2007
Messages
9,119
Reaction score
1,881
Location
Texas, usually
So what happens on calm, cloudy days? We're powerless?

Nope. That's what batteries are for.

I run my house entirely off solar. During the day, my panels produce more than I need, so that at night, I still have power... and in fact, I can continue to have power through several calm, cloudy, sunless days.

A combination of solar and wind would work even better, though, as it's often windy at night or on overcast (and/or rainy) days. The batteries would be charging a lot more of the time, and I'd have twice the reserves I do now.
 

Zoombie

Dragon of the Multiverse
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Dec 24, 2006
Messages
40,775
Reaction score
5,947
Location
Some personalized demiplane
Yes. Also nuclear and corn-based ethanol. But you specified "oil". I was just making the point that, for power generation, oil is a negligible percentage. I suspect most people don't realize that.

caw

Yeah, ugh, I was being general in my use of oil because I'm stupid. :)

(Oil = fossil fuels in my brain, despite them being a fraction of it. Cause...as I said, stupid.)
 

Roger J Carlson

Moderator In Name Only
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Feb 19, 2005
Messages
12,799
Reaction score
2,499
Location
West Michigan
What it specifically does not say is that wind and solar will be able to meet our energy demands by 2030, just that "a large grid" (whatever that means) could produce energy at the costs similar to today's expenses. Also, I wonder what "calculate costs correctly" means.
 

Torgo

Formerly Phantom of Krankor.
Kind Benefactor
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Apr 7, 2005
Messages
7,632
Reaction score
1,204
Location
London, UK
Website
torgoblog.blogspot.com

Kaiser-Kun

!
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jan 12, 2009
Messages
6,944
Reaction score
1,915
Age
39
Location
Mexico
So what happens on calm, cloudy days? We're powerless?

Nope. That's what batteries are for.

I run my house entirely off solar. During the day, my panels produce more than I need, so that at night, I still have power... and in fact, I can continue to have power through several calm, cloudy, sunless days.

A combination of solar and wind would work even better, though, as it's often windy at night or on overcast (and/or rainy) days. The batteries would be charging a lot more of the time, and I'd have twice the reserves I do now.

I saw on the Simpsons that when there's no wind, normal electric current kicks in. Or you can climb the mill and start pushing the arms yourself.

My house sure could use some solar cells. We're never short of sun here (and the air conditioners really rack up the bill...)
 

Kaiser-Kun

!
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jan 12, 2009
Messages
6,944
Reaction score
1,915
Age
39
Location
Mexico
We can trade you some clouds, if you like. We have waaaaaay many more than we need. And right now dawn and dusk are about six hours apart.

caw

Throw in some cold and snow and you're on.

We reached 30° Celsius yesterday.
 

clintl

Represent.
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Feb 12, 2005
Messages
7,611
Reaction score
603
Location
Davis, CA

Lyv

I meant to do that.
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Aug 5, 2007
Messages
4,958
Reaction score
1,934
Location
Outside Boston
I've heard that wind power is really inefficient.
Do you remember where you heard that or what study they might have bee using?

Do we really want wind farms with hundreds of windmills on them filling every available space?
They wouldn't have to, but we've got a few wind turbines around town and I think they look fine. Where they've been proposed around us, all you'd see is a tiny dot on the horizon anyway.
 

benbradley

It's a doggy dog world
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Dec 5, 2006
Messages
20,322
Reaction score
3,513
Location
Transcending Canines
Nope. That's what batteries are for.

I run my house entirely off solar. During the day, my panels produce more than I need, so that at night, I still have power... and in fact, I can continue to have power through several calm, cloudy, sunless days.

A combination of solar and wind would work even better, though, as it's often windy at night or on overcast (and/or rainy) days. The batteries would be charging a lot more of the time, and I'd have twice the reserves I do now.
Do you have any technical info on your system, such as how many watts are generated with midday sunlight, and how many watt-hours of battery storage you have?

I presume you're not running an electric stove, electric central heating or clothes dryer on this system.
I saw on the Simpsons that when there's no wind, normal electric current kicks in.
That's if you're tied to the power grid, which takes a small converter device. The good news for those who own solar-powered buildings is that US laws require utilities to buy back power put into the grid at the same rate they sell it, so the grid looks like a very large battery that pays you to charge it.
My house sure could use some solar cells. We're never short of sun here (and the air conditioners really rack up the bill...)
Air conditioning takes a LOT of power, you'd need a lot of solar cells to run it.
 

_Sian_

Ooooh, pretty lights and sirens :D
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Jul 6, 2010
Messages
5,867
Reaction score
909
Location
Victoria, Aus
Website
antagonistsneeded.wordpress.com
Throw in some cold and snow and you're on.

We reached 30° Celsius yesterday.

I see your 30C and raise you 47C (116 F) :p

Do you have any technical info on your system, such as how many watts are generated with midday sunlight, and how many watt-hours of battery storage you have?

I presume you're not running an electric stove, electric central heating or clothes dryer on this system.

That's if you're tied to the power grid, which takes a small converter device. The good news for those who own solar-powered buildings is that US laws require utilities to buy back power put into the grid at the same rate they sell it, so the grid looks like a very large battery that pays you to charge it.
Air conditioning takes a LOT of power, you'd need a lot of solar cells to run it.

My parent's house has solar power cells. They're still on the system, and what they do is sell energy back to the power company. They halved their bill this month.

The good thing about solar cells though, apart for the battery storage is that they keep working even when you're not there. So if you chucked them on schools and stuff, then the school would be generating power (and money, if selling back to the grid) during school holidays.

As for what's generated, I just had a look, and we've generated 2.8 kwH so far today. It's 11:19am here. I'm not sure what the specifications of the solar panels are though.
 
Last edited:

Monkey

Is me.
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Apr 12, 2007
Messages
9,119
Reaction score
1,881
Location
Texas, usually
Do you have any technical info on your system, such as how many watts are generated with midday sunlight, and how many watt-hours of battery storage you have?

I'm embarrassed to admit that I'd have to dig out my owner's manual to give you any technical specs. (EDIT: Here's my system: http://www.mobilesolarpower.net/ms_series/ms-325/ ) As to the watts, I knew back when I got the system, but that's been like eight years now, and I've forgotten everything technical and become accustomed to judging by the readouts. Amber lights on the converters means I'm low on power; when the Outback system reads 32 (and no, I don't know 32 what,) I'm pulling in a decent amount of power. 17 kinda sucks. My water pressurizer, when it's on, pulls something like 20, which often means the system has to pull from its battery to run it.

This is actually a very small system, especially considering that my house is pretty big. My stove and water heater run off propane, and I have a propane tank on one side of the property. I designed the house for passive heating and cooling, and I'm happy to say that I got that part right; the house is always at least 10 degrees cooler than outside in the summer and 10 degrees warmer than outside in the winter - without using any sort of internal heating and cooling system. But in the summer, I open the windows at night and run low-energy ceiling fans constantly, keeping it even cooler, and in the winter, I have a wood-burning stove to boost the heat.

I do not have a dryer or dishwasher or blow dryer, or any other high-energy use appliances. Basically, nothing that uses electricity to produce heat or that uses more water than absolutely necessary.

And speaking of water, I use water catchment for all our drinking water - it flows off our roof, through the gutter, and into a cistern; we pull it out in a bucket then run it through a Berkey filter.

We do not run a TV constantly - only when we really want to watch a movie or play a game. And our batteries are not as efficient as they once were. We used to be able to go three days without sun without having to change our normal routines at all; now, we last two days without sun if we're careful. We do have a backup generator, but we use it as seldom as possible.

We are going to end up tying to the grid in a year or so, at least until we can afford new batteries and maybe another panel or two.

But I love our little system. When everyone else is having power outages, they come to my place. And to me, the little sacrifices are worth the environmental good and the fact that we have no water or electric bills - only five or ten bucks in gas per month IF we end up running the generator, which we don't always. We could have gotten a much larger system if I hadn't bought one "turn key," already completely put together and needing only to be plugged in, out of a company in California (transporting it from California to Texas was kinda costly. Oh, and the company name is Mobile Solar. They're great to work with, and do over-the-phone trouble shooting no matter how many years it's been since you bought your system.)

If I'd understood what I was doing, or if the companies in San Antonio hadn't been too damned stuck-up to come do a needs assessment and hook me up, I could now run more stuff. But oh well. I'm happy anyway. :D

This is our house: http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.127270280642422.9606.100000783513442&type=3
Looks like I don't have a facebook photo of my solar generator, but you can just barely see it in the background of this pic of my daughter: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?f...82268210.63085.100000783513442&type=3&theater It's white and has a little shed next to it for the gas generator, for the times when it's necessary. You can see the nearest panel if you look reeeeal hard, it's at an angle near the top of my daughter's head on the left side of the photo (right in the fork of the tree branch.) On the other side of my daughter's head, that bit of grey is one of our two cisterns; this one's where the well water is stored, not the rain catchment one.
 
Last edited:

Miguelito

Filled with optimism. And scotch.
Super Member
Registered
Joined
Oct 27, 2007
Messages
619
Reaction score
66
Location
anywhere but here
A copy of the study is available here

The study is fascinating, but we have to be careful about what it's saying.

What they tried to do was examine whether a mix of electricity derived mainly from solar and wind, plus some other power sources, could supply electricity demand on a very large scale while dealing with daily swings. It's not all that surprising that, once you work storage into the mix, that it's possible. That's the way natural gas markets work (gas is stored when not in demand and pulled out of storage when demand>supply).

Thus, they've demonstrated that, if the power is available and storage is available, this kind of solar-wind combination can work to a very high percentage of load and at a reasonable cost (I'm no economist, so I can't really comment on how reasonable their cost assumptions are).

However, we're talking about an absolutely HUGE amount of power storage that would, according to the model, be required to supply over 75% of demand at times (which is also far more than what natural-gas storage ever contributes to gas markets). This kind of storage draw isn't terribly frequent in the model, but looks like it happens enough that you have to have the capacity there or, when demand>>supply, you crash the grid unless your fossil-fuel power can come on quick enough and big enough. In other words, you have to have power storage able to transmit enough electricity to power most of the grid on a daily basis, but sitting idle almost all the time. That's not particularly efficient.

That being said, it's worth seriously looking at this.
 

GrayLensman

Rob J. Vargas
Sockpuppet
Banned
Joined
Sep 7, 2012
Messages
68
Reaction score
7
Let's not forget that some very loose studies hint that wind power might have unintended climate consequences. Here's a link from the National Science Foundation on that.

[ S]ays Anjuli Bamzai, program director in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funded the research."The observations and analyses are for a relatively short period, but raise important issues that deserve attention as we move toward an era of rapid growth in wind farms in our quest for alternate energy sources."