And now, who will take the lead? Unfortunately, such leaders have their followers.
Hi, I'm Austrian, and the situation's quite a bit more complex.
The original party, the FPÖ, has been the biggest "small" party for quite a long time and has thus attracted many idealist politicians who were not necessarily fond of the party mainline, but who thought that they had a chance to influence politics by gaining parliament seats and strengthening oppositions. Many local offshoots of the party were quite votable, too.
To illustrate the point, one of the most leftist parties Austria ever had, the LiF ("liberal forum"), emerged from the FPÖ. So, back in those days, Haider's men, had he died, might have made better, more palatable politics than the man himself.
Fast forward. 1999. As a result of voting and coalition negotiations, the FPÖ made it into the government together with the ÖVP. A lot of noise, including EU-sanctions against Austria, led to Haider not partaking in the government. I don't remember why, but there were out-of-schedule elections in 2002 (about through half the government's term). The result of these elections led to the same co-alition, but apparantly there were problems, since in 2005 the FPÖ split into two parties:
FPÖ
and
BZÖ
The BZÖ was Haider's new party and remained in the government. Most Austrians were upset: neither of the two parties had been voted for, so despite a history of out-of-scheduled elections the public demanded re-elections. This did not happen, and in 2006 we went back to an SPÖ-ÖVP coalition, something that's almost traditional in Austria.
But the government did not last. We've only now had re-elections; it was the hardest election I can remember: nobody knew whom to vote. The big parties had lost the trust of the voters; both FPÖ and BZÖ had a core of voters, but nobody else was much fond of voting for them - though most did in the end. The green party has also recently lost the trust of their voters (and did an abysmal job trying to re-gain it). Many small parties sprang up, etc. I didn't know who to vote for until I stood in the cabin with the pen in my hand.
We're still in the process of coalition negotiations, and since nobody likes anyone else, god knows what will come of this, and whether the government will last. The FPÖ was the third strongest party; BZÖ fourth.
Haider's influence on a national scale had diminished from 1999 onwards, and he was pretty much a political non-entity since 2005, except in Carinthia, "his" homestead.
It's not so much "Who will take over?" but "Who has taken over?"
This is the guy, and - yes - he's worse. Much worse. Haider, for all his political posturing, I never saw as a "Nazi"; more of a pop-star cynically using the neo-nazi scene to gain power. Dangerous, sure, but not a fanatic. Mr. Strache on the other hand gives me the creeps.
Now, with Haider's demise, I don't really see a future for the BZÖ. That leaves voters with rightwing tendencies pretty much only the FPÖ, and who knows what will come of this?
Why has the right been so strong in these elections?
1. They got protest voters. Fall-out from the loss of trust the big parties (ÖVP and SPÖ) suffered. They're not more popular than they were; the big parties are less popular. Green could have gained, too, but they actually lost votes. I suppose that's because they managed to upset their own voters much recently, and thus didn't have great support. (If the LiF hadn't come back for that election, I would probably have voted for them, or even the communists.)
2. Headlines such as the Fritzl-case (dad keeps daughter in cellar and has a number of kids with her) have increased the need for security. FPÖ and BZÖ have always taken a higher regulation/harsher punishment line, so that they should gain is no big surpise. The ÖVP tried the line, too, but they weren't too successful with it.
Frankly, Haider's death wasn't that big a deal; I'm afraid of the new guy already (and have been for some time) - and in a way I was never afraid of Haider. As it is, I'm waiting for the conspiracy theorists to mumble about the student offing his traitorous master (not radical enough).
Currently, I'm hoping that the party isn't as bad as its leader. And that the FPÖ doesn't make the government, even though this might mean re-elections in the next year or two...
Oh, where is Waldheim these days?
Dead.