Astute observations from Alice Cooper

There is luck and then there is luck. Luck, in general, cannot be controlled. It is its randomness that defines it. However, there is also another kind of luck. This luck is somewhat controllable in that there are logical steps to creating it.

We all know that a well-written book that has been proofed, edited, yada, yada, yada has a better chance of being picked up by a publisher than one that is laden with typos and plot points with huge holes. By not submitting the shiniest manuscript we can, we lessen the "luck factor."

In self-publishing (where the author wears all the hats), any step in the process can have a "luck factor" (or not), depending on how well we know all the parts of each job we're required to fill.

I believe we create the best luck by doing the hard work. The question then becomes: Were we lucky or was it all the hard work paying off?

Talking about relatively high levels of success in the mainstream market, luck is one of the most important factors.
But, step down from that, and I say you can achieve high enough success with a great amount of effort.

I would rather not bet on luck in bringing me any type of success, big or small. I can bet on my hard work, though.

Some people are lucky. Some are not.
Some call it fate. Others become distraught.

I guess luck would be whether your MS is read before or after an agent's morning coffee.

It's like playing the horses. You can do your homework and put money on one that has a reputation, but you can never know if it will swallow a bee that day.

The same luck would apply to one of those bar bands he mentioned. One day, a producer might drop in for a drink. Or maybe he was there on a day they weren't playing. If they had given up playing altogether though, nothing would have been possible.

I think these days writers have better odds because they can test the market themselves and get some indication of whether they have something worth chasing or not.

blacbird said:

Somehow the idea that “luck” is a determinant in success or failure in achieving publication for one's work is about the most depressing thing imaginable. Isn't there greater clarity in understanding that the responsibility of achieving publication for a given work rests on the work itself, and not on some semi-random confluence of “timing” or sunspots or phases of moon or positions of planets?


I prefer to believe that the outcome of things like submissions of written work is dependent on the work submitted, not on randomness. But I'm never sure. So what exactly is the function of “luck” in the writing world?


And what do you do if "luck" never shows up for work?

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In the writing world, I guess luck could be just about any good thing that you'd never dared even hope for, let alone plan. Ignoring any request to not mail unsolicited manuscripts, but sending in their doorstoppers anyway and then getting picked from the slush pile, those writers got lucky. Or some agent's nephew coming across the first five pages of what's planned to be a kid's novel and demands for the rest of it, making the person reconsider what they initially might have passed over, that's luck.

But no, never wait for it to show up for work. Even the most unexpected, random of good fortunes seem to come from pulling yourself forward on your own. No kind of luck I've ever heard of came by doing literally nothing. No stranger's going to one day knock on your door and announce, 'The world needs your stories!'

I don't think those who we think are lucky really get shunted to the front by a set of completely unrelated and inexplicable reasons. If your hard work really produced something deserving of praise and merit (or at the very least a large, crazy fan base who will foam at the mouth for what they can't get anywhere else) it's going to get pushed into the limelight somehow. Maybe luck is just when one of those 'somehows' happens to be one nobody would have considered likely.

The trick is, you haven't mentioned one additional element: for pay.

There are plenty of opportunities to gain an audience. Cooper mentions the thousands of talented musicians playing in clubs, but fails to mention that many of them work for nothing, or even just free drinks or a meal. "Paying gigs" are tougher to come by. So those musicians who crave an audience but haven't yet found their "luck" or haven't, in all likelihood, found their style or are still honing their craft, simply accept that not all performances are going to be compensated.

Same with writers. There are abundant places to gain input from the real reading public without a shread of luck. If an audience is all that is wanted, that part is easy. It's finding the patron, as it used to be known, that is harder. Readers, like music-lovers, don't require a patron to be involved, but it sure helps.

That's what we all work for. And while I admit to my fair share of what some might consider luck in the process, there was also a ton of hard work backstory that never appears in my recitation of "lucky breaks."

Here is what other well-known people have said about luck:

Luck is only important in so far as getting the chance to sell yourself at the right moment. After that, you've got to have talent and know how to use it.
Frank Sinatra

Luck is not chance, it's toil; fortune's expensive smile is earned.
Emily Dickinson

Luck? I don't know anything about luck. I've never banked on it and I'm afraid of people who do. Luck to me is something else: Hard work - and realizing what is opportunity and what isn't.
Lucille Ball

Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect.
Ralph Waldo Emerson

"Luck never gives; it only lends." Proverb

"If a man who cannot count finds a four-leaf clover, is he lucky?" - Stanislaw J. Lec

"Men have made an idol of luck as an excuse for their own thoughtlessness." – Democritus

Luck is a sniper atop a smokestack, rifle loaded with unlimited rounds of happenstance. He's been issued a license to shot at random. But Luck's gotten kind of bored lying belly-flat up there, in the baking sun, in the pelting rain, and it takes a shiny target passing frequently to attract his jaundiced eye.

So if you want Luck to shoot at you, you need to polish your work to a high sheen and saunter under the smokestack every chance you can get or manufacture.

Also, don't be too bitter if every now and then Luck's trigger finger jerks and he shoots some grungy first-time passerby who doesn't deserve it. Errant twitches will happen.

Phaeal said:

Luck is a sniper atop a smokestack, rifle loaded with unlimited rounds of happenstance. He's been issued a license to shot at random. But Luck's gotten kind of bored lying belly-flat up there, in the baking sun, in the pelting rain, and it takes a shiny target passing frequently to attract his jaundiced eye.

So if you want Luck to shoot at you, you need to polish your work to a high sheen and saunter under the smokestack every chance you can get or manufacture.

Also, don't be too bitter if every now and then Luck's trigger finger jerks and he shoots some grungy first-time passerby who doesn't deserve it. Errant twitches will happen.

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I cannot begin to tell you how much I love this post! It is the perfect imagery.

Luck comes after you get published, not before. I can think of only two things that are out of a writer's control. One is being born with talent. The other is making the bestseller list, though even this one isn't as much luck as it is talent, and knowing what readers want. But it is partly luck.

I know a little bit about bands playing in clubs and bars. Very, very rarely do I see a band that's anywhere close to professional level, and of the few I have seen, almost none were willing to pay the price.

It simply isn't the same world as writing, and the way you break in requires more sacrifice, the willingness to pack up and move, whether you have the money or not, and often even on your looks, as much as your talent.

In fairness, every band I know gets paid, and if they are any good, it's a living wage, plus tips, which can add up.

But I think real talent always rises to the top, as long as the person with talent is willing and able to pay the price, and is smart enough to know what the price is. More people in every field fail through ignorance, laziness, and lack of self-discipline than from lack of talent.

blacbird said:

Yet there seems to me to be a significant difference between a performing musician, even a visual artist like Van Gogh, and a writer. The performing musician can just about always find an audience, however small and intimate. There is feedback, validation. No performing artist just sits at home and plays an instrument or sings, and is satisfied with that self-indulgence. An audience is desired, required.

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There's always been avenues for a writer to get that audience, though. Fanfiction authors have had that venue for decades, and their readers give back pretty immediate feedback and appreciation. That was true back when fanfiction was self or small published and even more true with the internet. The audience is even pretty much established for the writer, you just have to toss your stuff into the ring.

With the internet, all kinds of audiences are out there, and it doesn't cost much but time and energy to get one's stuff out there. Yeah, not a paying gig, but it's an Art, after all. Can't always expect to get paid, or so my father often said.

Somehow the writer is supposed to be satisfied without an audience, at least on the basis of common comments here and elsewhere.

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Speaking only of my own advice, I've said that I've been happier as a writer when I've taken my satisfaction from some part of the creative process, if not all of the creative process, and not hinge all the worthiness of my effort on something I can't control--like getting published.

I think it's why Stephen King (in On Writing) suggests that every writer find a "first reader" to write for. One person whose opinion makes or breaks the effort to write. Not some unknown editor or agent, but someone he knows well and can get immediate feedback from. You don't depend on getting satisfaction outside of you or your "inner circle", because you're more likely to get it than not.

So what about “luck”? We don't lack for commentary here about how “luck” doesn't exist, or doesn't matter, or even if it does, it shouldn't, people should be happy with what they do, without worrying about finding an external audience, usually from those who have succeeded in finding that audience. The most pejorative word of all is “validation”. We should feel “validated” at just finishing thing X or thing Y, and not let the opinion of others about it matter.

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For me, luck and validation are two different things. I get any validation for telling the story when I read the finished draft and am satisfied that I told the story to the best of my present ability. There's a little more if my betas come back with the same judgment. I don't have to sell it to get "validated". It's thrilling when such things happen, but it's more like a pat on the back when I know I've already won the race.

"Luck" is having the right story, sent to the right person at a time when that's what they're looking for. "Luck" is knowing your story well enough that when you find yourself in a position to talk about it to someone who can help you to get it published, you can fluently and not sound like an idiot. "Luck" is all those things that are outside of the writer's control.

I prefer to believe that the outcome of things like submissions of written work is dependent on the work submitted, not on randomness. But I'm never sure. So what exactly is the function of “luck” in the writing world?

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The randomness does play a part, though. You may have written an absolutely marvelous book, but if the publisher isn't in the market for it, it gets rejected. Or if the publisher just bought seventeen of them and there's no more room on the roster for another one. Nothing the writer can do about that because they can't know those facts. (It's a traditional job of an agent to know that stuff, FWIW.) Unless the writer has some inside track, of course, but that's really rare.

And what do you do if "luck" never shows up for work?

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I got my first rejection letter in 1974, my dear. I had a small press publication in 1999 (and they went out of business within the year) that got a good review in RT and other places. Until Mac picked up my short story last year, nothing else I submitted to a pro endeavor did well.

For much of my youth, I was certain that getting published was going to make my life all better. My immediate family scorns the whole writing thing, and the fact that I couldn't get anything published just pointed to how right they were. It was pretty miserable.

Then, somewhere, the klieg light turned on. Validation could only come from ME, not from publishers, not from my family. How I felt about what I was doing was far more important. Writing was a selfish pleasure and it was healthy to be selfish and enjoy it. Thus, my attitude about where my satisfaction in writing comes from.

I've finished 30-odd books, all of which have been turned down by agents and editors, though the notes have usually included "Like your writing, don't want this story. Send something else, please."

What that tells me is that it isn't luck. It's that the stories I like to write aren't stories that big publishers think they'll make a lot of money off of. That doesn't mean there isn't an audience for my work--it's just an audience that won't make the big guys more money. That's okay, because now there's venues for my reaching said market directly. And that will take time, but that's okay too.

So--what do you do? The same thing you've been doing all along, if that's what you want to be doing. If it's not, if you can't find satisfaction in it because "luck" isn't finding you, then you might think about finding something you don't need that kind of luck to be satisfied with.

On the flip side, there are also phenomena of rationalisation, where successful people are more likely to minimize the luck they had and attribute it all to their hard work, and unsuccesful people are more likely to minimize their own failings and blame bad luck.

It cuts both ways and it can be hard to see clearly through this. That can lead to two opposite (yet often held by the same people in succession) and absurd ideas: the idea that success is strictly proportional to talent and hard work (as if fads, exposure, and size of the target market weren't just as important factors), and the idea that success is purely an accident and that there is no such thing as "good" or "bad" productions (but in that case, why bother putting more than the minimum amount of work in anything, if it won't make a difference).

Those are damaging ideas.

This is something I've put a lot of thought into.

Frankly, I find it disingenuous to say there's no such thing as luck when it comes to publishing.

Obviously hard work and dedication can't be downplayed. Persistence. Personally, I also believe in talent, but not everyone does.

All the other areas of life play in. If another section of life explodes, it can derail the best of efforts and intentions. Yeah, yeah, if it's important you keep writing and submitting. Sometimes that's true--other times, despite how much you want to be acknowledged and published, you can't get yourself to give up those three hours of sleep, or last scrap of sanity.

I honestly feel offended when I read comments that say luck has nothing to do with it. It does not remotely feel like RYFW, it feels like a prettied up way of saying "you suck."

Like every other art, writing is subjective, and there are different "audiences" for different writing styles.

If I could find the equivalent of a local bar gig for my writing I'd be happy. Not thrilled, but happy. Playing alone, or playing for no pay to an audience of 3... no, not enough for me. Validation does mean something to me, and for me, validation = readers and a paycheck.

I don't get it when people discuss different forms of writing as completely interchangeable skills. I couldn't and don't want to write fanfic. I couldn't and don't want to write ads. If I were a violinist, no one would say hey, there're no gigs open for you, but if you'd switch to the oboe there's an opening in Cincinnati.

I've had quite a few people be supportive over the years, say lovely things about my stories and voice. People who are "in the know" and have read my work. But no offers of contracts or $.

Out of frustration and hope, I put a story up on my blog recently, something I never thought I'd do. I've gotten a tremendously positive response. Is it enough for me? Nope.

Blacbird, I think you know this is something I've been struggling with. I think of myself as a long hauler. I take breaks--some out of frustration, some because of other areas of my life taking over, but I've been at this a long time. I don't have any answers. Hell, I'm not even sure why I haven't given up, but I haven't.

Getting that audience as a writer is easy:

Go to an open mic night. You can find musicians, poets, and even prose writers doing readings and performances at that sort of thing. I've been to open mic nights of 20 people, half of whom are performing, in a small town venue and heard absolutely amazing material, just as Cooper suggests. Yet none of those people are famous. Perhaps they don't want to go mainstream. Perhaps they haven't met the right person. Perhaps one of there songs, videos, poems, stories has not gone viral on tumblr or youtube. So it is up to luck in a sense.

But as others have said, you can do things to help luck along. Submit many things and frequently. Approach gatekeepers. Give free samples. Always submit your best work if you do submit. Etc.


Other places writers can find feedback: writing sites like AW, fanfiction sites, on a blog, creative writing groups, critique groups, etc. These places do exist.

However, there is a bit of a difference between prose stories and music/poetry. Doing a reading is different than doing a gig at coffeehouse. But it's not that different.

I think a lot of artists balk at the luck factor because so many people use luck as an excuse not to try. "If it's all about luck, well then what's the point of even giving it a go?" Further, many many artists who are that kind of successful we envy and strive for have worked really darn hard, and can get their backs up when it seems all that hard work is being dismissed as mere luck.

But luck is a factor. It isn't the only factor, but it's a big one. I've seen a publisher make a book a bestseller because it was the one chosen to be made into a bestseller. I've also seen a tiny book find one amazing champion, someone famous or whatever, and suddenly make it a huge deal. Books that appeal to the general zeitgeist, that's luck too. There was no predicting that that one thing was what the general population really wanted to consume (if there was, every book a publisher put out would be a best seller). Luck matters. But so does hard work. And to a lesser extent, talent.

As for the whole who has it easier, musicians or writers, I don't think you're fully accurate. A writer can get an audience of one or two if he/she posts online these days. Just like a musician can. It depends on your goal. I love singing and playing my guitar (which I am still only just learning), but I have no drive or need to be heard. I am happy to play alone in my living room. So too is there the writer out there who is content to write her stories and keep them to herself. A professional artist, on the other hand, wants to move people with her work, wants others to experience it. So a writer posts online, a musician goes to a club. Neither is fully satisfying. But we do it because we need to. I don't think any artist has it any easier than the other (okay, as an actor I actually thought that being an author was easier because a) I wasn't being judged on my appearance and b) I was able to do my art without relying on anyone else - you try being an actor on your own, it's very difficult to do. But that is just my opinion, I think others would find being an actor easier than a writer).

The world's luckiest fisherman is the one who both goes to where the fish live and shows up when they're biting.

The more you write and submit to appropriate agents/publishers, the more likely you are to be "lucky". Of course there is an arbitrary elements, I think everyone knows that. But it is not like an element of luck will cause someone to discover the book locked in your desk drawer. And you can do some smaller scale publishing if you want, or some self-publishing.

Meanwhile, have some other things going on in your life. Pinning your entire income/self-worth/happiness/whatever on becoming a breakthrough best-selling author is a somewhat risky choice.

You know, I've had bad luck. And I resent the implication that if only I had been the kind of fisherman who knew where the fish were and just fished there things would have been different. I have worked my butt off. Every time a book didn't do well, I wrote a new one. I have been published by the big six, I have been promised lead title, and I have seen the publisher then totally forget any and all promises to me and put all the other lead titles together on a tour but me. I have made impressive book trailers, funded by myself, that my publisher then used, I have arranged book signings, visits. I have a personal publicist.

I suppose you could simply say my work sucks, that that's all there is to it, except it doesn't. Except it is award winning. And major publications have reviewed it well. Further the audience for whom it is intended likes it, bloggers write things like "Why don't more people know about her books???"

Please stop insisting that all it takes is hard work and knowing the right place to fish. It's really damn insulting. I work so friggin' hard and I am so friggin' tired. And I haven't given up yet. But sayings like that, they would make someone less stubborn than me to really think about throwing in the towel. Sometimes hard work pays off exactly as we are told it will, and that becomes evidence that it must always be that way. But when you have spent your life working so hard, being told you've got the goods by the people who matter and you STILL can't make inroads, you learn that pure stupid luck also matters. It does.

(it doesn't mean that hard work doesn't, of course it does, it matters more because if you aren't creating then what the heck are you going to do when luck hits? When my agent left if I hadn't had the book I had just written I wouldn't have found representation two days later. Hard work tops the pyramid for sure.)

Okay, Toothpaste.

Not even being at the right place at the right time with the right tools is a guarantee of success.

Still, being at the wrong place at the wrong time with the wrong tools is a pretty good guarantee of failure.

Well on that we definitely agree. And I do understand the danger of talking about luck being a factor as I said in my first post. But sometimes when it's just not going the way you'd like it to, and you work so so so hard, it can really hurt when people want to dismiss luck entirely. Because then it means despite it all, it's all my fault. And I just know deep down it isn't. I kind of wish it was, because then maybe there would be something I could do to fix it .

Anyway, sorry if I jumped down your throat, it's been a tough couple years for both sides of my career.

James D. Macdonald said:

Okay, Toothpaste.

Not even being at the right place at the right time with the right tools is a guarantee of success.

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This feels incredibly rude and dismissive. I don't think anyone has asked why no one is beating down their door when they aren't submitting.

As far as I understand it, the roundtable is a place for discussion.

I think it is just pragmatic. Most of us here are not huge successful authors. We focus on the successes we have (in writing or otherwise), and feel good for our peers who reached that gold ring. Such is life.

veinglory said:

I think it is just pragmatic. Most of us here are not huge successful authors. We focus on the successes we have (in writing or otherwise), and feel good for our peers who reached that gold ring. Such is life.

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And that is good and healthy and admirable. Unfortunately not everyone is able to be quite so calmly pragmatic, and dismissing people who are dealing with trials, dismissing the importance of luck, doesn't help others. It just makes them feel lonely and freak like. It's amazing you can feel content like that. For me I feel like I am constantly hitting my head against a wall. Every new book I write I have to shop to a new publisher. Time after time after time. And after a while it just gets exhausting. And others have success and you can be happy for them but you can also be jealous. And be frustrated that through no more effort or talent they are getting places you at this point can only dream of (and no, I'm not comparing myself to Suzanne Collins or anything - I'm just talking about authors who consistently have forward momentum, who's next book builds on the success of the previous one, who has a publisher who will always publish them and support them).

Advice to celebrate your successes, no matter how small is extremely important. As is advice to support your fellows and understand that no one's path is the same as anyone else's so you should stop comparing yourself to others. What you say is awesome and good. What I am saying is that sometimes people need to hear about struggles, and that it isn't their fault if they are struggling, and that sometimes blind stupid luck is just that. They aren't lesser for not being where others are, and they aren't alone in feeling the way they are.

Again, I get it, I get why luck is a scary thing to talk about because it offers far too many excuses. But surely we can talk about it responsibly and reasonably?


ETA: I should add I am perfectly aware that where I am in my career is where others are working so hard to get to, that many reading this will be "Well at least you've been published." And believe it or not I am grateful for that, and DO celebrate my successes. But I was just as surprised as anybody when I went from the "All I want is to be published" stage to what happens once you are published stage, that it isn't all roses and sunshine here. And that there are a lot of challenges. A lot of pain. And a heck of a lot of rejection. Still. And that the business isn't fair and that that's just how it goes.