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Thread: Virginia Governor's Race: Referendum on Trump, or not so much?

  1. #1
    Likes metaphors mixed, not stirred Chris P's Avatar
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    Virginia Governor's Race: Referendum on Trump, or not so much?

    It's election night in Virginia, and the polls have just closed.

    Live Updates

    Many news outlets are calling this one to watch to see how people are reacting to the national leadership in the White House and Capitol. Historically, the governorship has flipped-flopped, with the party losing the prior year's presidential contest usually taking the Governor's Mansion. Polls as of this morning had the Democrat Ralph Northam with only a low-single digit lead over GOP's Ed Gillespie.

    Should Northam win, Dems will see that as a repudiation of the President, while the election of Gillespie would indicate approval. Myself, with so close a margin it's really hard to say. The state has always had close elections, especially since 2010. Within the margin of error, you could get a different result through random chance.

    What say all of you? Will tonight be a litmus test of what we might see in 2018 mid-terms? Or is that eons from now in politics-time and won't mean much?

    Are there any elections you're watching closely?
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  2. #2
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    With 57% of the vote in, Northam (D) holds a 4+ percentage point edge, which probably will hold.

    caw
    Light thinks it travels faster than anything but it is wrong. No matter how fast light travels it finds the darkness has always got there first, and is waiting for it.

    -- Terry Pratchett

  3. #3
    Lost in the Fog rugcat's Avatar
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    Virginia has been called for Northam. In New Jersey, the Democratic candidate Phil Murphy was declared winner almost as soon as the polls closed. No surprise there New Jersey is a blue state and Governor Christie was as about as unpopular as it's possible for a governor to be. To paraphrase, a ham sandwich on the Democratic ticket probably could have won.

    It's unclear what any of this really means. In 2013, Democrats got clobbered because a lot of the voters who came out for Obama did not show up when when Obama was not on the ticket. It looks like Trump voters, like Obama voters earlier, did not bother to show up without Trump on the ticket. And Gillespie, though he ran a campaign mirroring Donald Trump's positions, is definitely an establishment Republican who was not going to excite Trump's base.

    So it may not necessarily be the bellwether that the Democrats are hoping for.

    On the other hand, Democrats voters poured out in impressive numbers. In the democratic strongholds of Virginia, voter turnout was, I believe, equal or greater than in 2013. In areas where Trump was victorious, voting was down.

    And that's a very good sign. I think it gives credence to the idea that rather than try to reach out and win over trump voters, what Democrats need to do is to energize their own base and get them to come out and vote as the key to victory. And when voters see what happened in Virginia they may well start to believe it can happen in their states as well.

    So I think it's not a game changer, but it is an encouraging indication for what the future may hold.
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  4. #4
    Lost in the Fog rugcat's Avatar
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    Also there's this:
    Virginia Elects Its First Openly Transgender State Lawmaker
    https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/dani...ction=politics
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  5. #5
    down the rabbit hole of research... CWatts's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blacbird View Post
    With 57% of the vote in, Northam (D) holds a 4+ percentage point edge, which probably will hold.

    caw
    Several media outlets have called the race for Northam. Note that if anything, his lead may expand as most of the unreported precincts are in the cities. His running mates have lesser margins but it is looking like a Democratic sweep.

    Danica Roem won her state-house to become the first transgender elected official in Virginia. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...=.c3c9f6646377 She unseated notorious homophobe Bob Marshall.

  6. #6
    I should be writing. Alpha Echo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rugcat View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by CWatts View Post
    Several media outlets have called the race for Northam. Note that if anything, his lead may expand as most of the unreported precincts are in the cities. His running mates have lesser margins but it is looking like a Democratic sweep.

    Danica Roem won her state-house to become the first transgender elected official in Virginia. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local...=.c3c9f6646377 She unseated notorious homophobe Bob Marshall.

    I am over the moon right now. As a Virginian, I am proud and hopeful. Both emotions I haven't felt for a long time.
    "All men dream: but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity: but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible"
    T.E. Lawrence


  7. #7
    Joker Groupie Celia Cyanide's Avatar
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    Wow, she won! I remember you talking about her and the canvasser who was saying bigoted things about her. I'm so excited she made it!
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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by rugcat View Post
    Virginia has been called for Northam. .
    It's because of massive voter fraud (wait for the tweets).

    caw
    Light thinks it travels faster than anything but it is wrong. No matter how fast light travels it finds the darkness has always got there first, and is waiting for it.

    -- Terry Pratchett

  9. #9
    I should be writing. Alpha Echo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Celia Cyanide View Post
    Wow, she won! I remember you talking about her and the canvasser who was saying bigoted things about her. I'm so excited she made it!
    Yes! Me too!!!

    Especially considering the man she beat. Talk about poetic justice. I wish I could be a fly on the wall of his campaign offices when he saw that he'd lost.

    ETA: I know this is off topic, but I saw this:

    Andrea Jenkins has won election to the Minneapolis City Council, making her the first trans person elected to a major city’s governing body and the first trans person of color elected to any office in the U.S.
    I'm reading notes of congratulations on Danica Roem's FB page, and combined with the above...I am in tears. Which I was not expecting tonight.
    Last edited by Alpha Echo; 11-08-2017 at 07:27 AM.
    "All men dream: but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity: but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible"
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  10. #10
    Joker Groupie Celia Cyanide's Avatar
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    Oh my gosh! I saw her speak, and I voted for her! I had no idea she won!
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  11. #11
    I should be writing. Alpha Echo's Avatar
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    "All men dream: but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity: but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dreams with open eyes, to make it possible"
    T.E. Lawrence


  12. #12
    Likes metaphors mixed, not stirred Chris P's Avatar
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    Yep, I just got back online and saw the good news all around in the elections. Congrats to Ralph, Phil, Danica and Andrea. The Washington Post is reporting that the Democrats are doing better than expected in the state general assembly, which will now have its first two Latina members. Half of all Democratic candidates are women, and about 25% are people of color or millennials.

    Quote Originally Posted by rugcat View Post
    And that's a very good sign. I think it gives credence to the idea that rather than try to reach out and win over trump voters, what Democrats need to do is to energize their own base and get them to come out and vote as the key to victory. And when voters see what happened in Virginia they may well start to believe it can happen in their states as well.
    I needs to be both, I think. I thought Clinton didn't do enough to reach beyond her base in 2016, while Trump did and energized a lot of people who don't normally participate in politics. My current frustration with the Democrats is that they seem to be holding back waiting for the Republicans to eat themselves up, then walk to victory by default. The base needs to be energized by value for membership, not by being the only alternative to the Republicans. What value does belonging to the Democratic camp bring? If they could define that and market it, 2018 will be a breeze.
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  13. #13
    Lost in the Fog rugcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris P View Post
    I needs to be both, I think. I thought Clinton didn't do enough to reach beyond her base in 2016, while Trump did and energized a lot of people who don't normally participate in politics. My current frustration with the Democrats is that they seem to be holding back waiting for the Republicans to eat themselves up, then walk to victory by default. The base needs to be energized by value for membership, not by being the only alternative to the Republicans. What value does belonging to the Democratic camp bring? If they could define that and market it, 2018 will be a breeze.
    Well, yes and no I think.

    Trump has been in office for almost a year, and anyone who still thinks he makes a fine president and are happy they voted for him is unreachable. Likewise, those who think a guy like Mike Pruitt is doing a fine job in dismantling the EPA or that Jeff sessions is a wonderful choice for Attorney General are not people one should waste any time on.

    But there are a lot of independents with conservative leaning views. Some of them even voted for Trump, and even if they wom't admit it out loud, they're beginning to have some real doubts about not only the man, but what Republican governance these days is like.

    So yes, the Dems need to reach out to those people and provide them with a reason to vote, other than because the other guys are so much worse. Those turned off entirely by politics simply don't vote, leaving the field wide open for the worst to triumph.

    "The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.


    So yeah, we can talk amongst ourselves about what a dangerous psychopath Trump is, or how the Republican Congress is dismantling the structure of government, but outside of our liberal circle we need to be able to provide reasons how Democrats will actually do specific things that will make the country great again, to borrow a slogan.
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  14. #14
    practical experience, FTW cornflake's Avatar
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    It's nice to see some positive results... from the city that just reelected Bill deBlasio. Sigh.

  15. #15
    The King and Queen of Cheese BenPanced's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alpha Echo View Post
    Yes! Me too!!!

    Especially considering the man she beat. Talk about poetic justice. I wish I could be a fly on the wall of his campaign offices when he saw that he'd lost.

    ETA: I know this is off topic, but I saw this:



    I'm reading notes of congratulations on Danica Roem's FB page, and combined with the above...I am in tears. Which I was not expecting tonight.
    Over on the Star Tribune article about Andrea Jenkins' win, there's (of course) a comment like, "We mustn't let superficial things such as gender and race get in the way of elections, especially when (THIRD PARTY CANDIDATE NAME) was a much more sensible solution."

    Of course.
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    practical experience, FTW Sunflowerrei's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cornflake View Post
    It's nice to see some positive results... from the city that just reelected Bill deBlasio. Sigh.
    New Yorkers are predictable, aren't we? Sometimes that's good. Sometimes...

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  17. #17
    practical experience, FTW cornflake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sunflowerrei View Post
    New Yorkers are predictable, aren't we? Sometimes that's good. Sometimes...

    Hoboken elected Ravi Bhalla, New Jersey's first Sikh mayor
    Mailiotakis got a heck of a lot of votes for someone aligned with Trump. A part of me wanted to up her total, but I couldn't do it. Chose a fringey kook (not Bo).

    Seth Meyers was encouraging everyone to vote for Trump btw -- on the theory that he could easily be convinced that mayor of NY was better than governour.

  18. #18
    down the rabbit hole of research... CWatts's Avatar
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    Several state house races are going to a recount, but Democrats picked up at least 14 seats by aggressively campaigning in 17 Republican-held districts that Hillary won. If all the nailbiters go to the Dems, we'll have a 50/50 split with Justin Fairfax (D) having the tiebreaker. Note also that Fairfax is black and only 38 years old. I am certain the LG win is a stepping stone for bigger things for him.

    Chris Hurst also won in the panhandle. He is a former news anchor whose girlfriend, journalist Alison Parker, and her cameraman Adam Ward were shot and killed on live tv by a former co-worker. His district includes Virginia Tech and his opponent was a major NRA supporter. http://wtvr.com/2017/11/07/chris-hur...delegate-seat/

    I have to say, I am not surprised that Northam pulled off the win, but the final margin of 9% is a slam dunk.
    Last edited by CWatts; 11-08-2017 at 04:23 PM.

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    Really happy to wake up to this news this morning.

    And 84% of the vote in Charlottesville went to Northam.

  20. #20
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    It's a beautiful morning here in red Kansas. Everyone here is sick of Republican governor Brownback and his sidewinder sidekick, Kolbach. We got rid of Huelskamp last election. I think I can see a patch of blue on the Horizon--s6

  21. #21
    Techno-Cathar Perfect Diana Hignutt's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rugcat View Post
    I am so happy and proud of Danica. Our secret trans agenda to take over the government is underway. Evil laugh.
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  22. #22
    The King and Queen of Cheese BenPanced's Avatar
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    I still poop rainbows.

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  23. #23
    I meant to do that. Lyv's Avatar
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    I am heartened and happy and really, really sore (my creaky old body was out all day and evening holding signs. Ouchies).

    Speaking of a smaller level, in my poky little city, a sanctuary cities champion kept her city council seat and councilors who shut down even a discussion about the issue were ousted. As a brand new councilor last year, she went all out to help pass the transgender rights bill. I first met her at a meeting for that bill that she held (she is also an Asian woman and there is no small amount of bigotry in my city). We were voting on three city council seats and liberal women took two of them (It's Massachusetts, but my city is light blue to purple, and the mayor is conservative and fills slots with cronies).

    I held signs for both women and old white dudes gave me shit about my candidates, though most of it was talking past me about how weak my candidates were. Theirs lost. Diversity won.

    Thank you to all who volunteered, amplified messages, and voted to make last night's results possible.

  24. #24
    I meant to do that. Lyv's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Diana Hignutt View Post
    I am so happy and proud of Danica. Our secret trans agenda to take over the government is underway. Evil laugh.
    I love her response when asked about the self-proclaimed "homophobe in chief" she defeated:
    When asked about Bob Marshall, Danica Roem said I don't attack my constituents. Bob is my constituent now.

  25. #25
    Making Einstein cry since 1994 Maggie Maxwell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lyv View Post
    I love her response when asked about the self-proclaimed "homophobe in chief" she defeated:
    God damn, that's classy. So glad for so many results last night, but this one especially.
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