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Short answer: Yes.
Those opposed to it are taking heart by noting that both Republicans on the far right and those who are more moderate centrists are not happy with the bill.
Senators Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Mike Lee are all opposing it because it doesn't do what they want a bill to do – repeal the ACA and replace it with nothing. But I believe Ted Cruz and Mike Lee will end up voting for it – a few tweaks will be made and they'll claim that although they're not happy with it, it's better than keeping Obamacare and ultimately they'll reluctantly vote in favor.
I think Rand Paul, an ideological libertarian may well stick to his guns and vote no but he's the only one on the right who will do so.
That leaves a few moderates like Susan Collins who I think is genuinely concerned about taking away healthcare and cutting Medicaid for the poor and vulnerable. but again, when push comes to shove I think you'll see a few sops thrown in the moderates direction to make the bill more palatable, and they too will "reluctantly" end up supporting it.
However, although Mitch McConnell wants a vote on it in the next couple of days, I think he's going to have to back off and postpone the vote until the supposed fixes are put into place in order to get it passed through.
It's true that this bill is quite unpopular, but repealing Obamacare no matter what is very popular with the base, and that base is what gets people elected. No senator fears losing their job over voting for this bill as much as they fear being primaried from the right if they vote against it.
The one exception seems to be Dean Heller, who is in a very competitive state and who could will lose his job by voting for the bill – that's why he has so far come out against it. Will he cave to establishment pressure and flip? Hard to say.
I may be overly pessimistic here – at one time I thought it was a done deal and now I think there's at least a chance of it failing, but I'm not at all convinced it won't go through.
What say you guys? Will the bill pass or fail?
Those opposed to it are taking heart by noting that both Republicans on the far right and those who are more moderate centrists are not happy with the bill.
Senators Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Mike Lee are all opposing it because it doesn't do what they want a bill to do – repeal the ACA and replace it with nothing. But I believe Ted Cruz and Mike Lee will end up voting for it – a few tweaks will be made and they'll claim that although they're not happy with it, it's better than keeping Obamacare and ultimately they'll reluctantly vote in favor.
I think Rand Paul, an ideological libertarian may well stick to his guns and vote no but he's the only one on the right who will do so.
That leaves a few moderates like Susan Collins who I think is genuinely concerned about taking away healthcare and cutting Medicaid for the poor and vulnerable. but again, when push comes to shove I think you'll see a few sops thrown in the moderates direction to make the bill more palatable, and they too will "reluctantly" end up supporting it.
However, although Mitch McConnell wants a vote on it in the next couple of days, I think he's going to have to back off and postpone the vote until the supposed fixes are put into place in order to get it passed through.
It's true that this bill is quite unpopular, but repealing Obamacare no matter what is very popular with the base, and that base is what gets people elected. No senator fears losing their job over voting for this bill as much as they fear being primaried from the right if they vote against it.
The one exception seems to be Dean Heller, who is in a very competitive state and who could will lose his job by voting for the bill – that's why he has so far come out against it. Will he cave to establishment pressure and flip? Hard to say.
I may be overly pessimistic here – at one time I thought it was a done deal and now I think there's at least a chance of it failing, but I'm not at all convinced it won't go through.
What say you guys? Will the bill pass or fail?