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Thread: Will The GOP HealthCare Bill Pass the Senate?

  1. #1
    Lost in the Fog rugcat's Avatar
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    Will The GOP HealthCare Bill Pass the Senate?

    Short answer: Yes.

    Those opposed to it are taking heart by noting that both Republicans on the far right and those who are more moderate centrists are not happy with the bill.

    Senators Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and Mike Lee are all opposing it because it doesn't do what they want a bill to do Ė repeal the ACA and replace it with nothing. But I believe Ted Cruz and Mike Lee will end up voting for it Ė a few tweaks will be made and they'll claim that although they're not happy with it, it's better than keeping Obamacare and ultimately they'll reluctantly vote in favor.

    I think Rand Paul, an ideological libertarian may well stick to his guns and vote no but he's the only one on the right who will do so.

    That leaves a few moderates like Susan Collins who I think is genuinely concerned about taking away healthcare and cutting Medicaid for the poor and vulnerable. but again, when push comes to shove I think you'll see a few sops thrown in the moderates direction to make the bill more palatable, and they too will "reluctantly" end up supporting it.

    However, although Mitch McConnell wants a vote on it in the next couple of days, I think he's going to have to back off and postpone the vote until the supposed fixes are put into place in order to get it passed through.

    It's true that this bill is quite unpopular, but repealing Obamacare no matter what is very popular with the base, and that base is what gets people elected. No senator fears losing their job over voting for this bill as much as they fear being primaried from the right if they vote against it.

    The one exception seems to be Dean Heller, who is in a very competitive state and who could will lose his job by voting for the bill Ė that's why he has so far come out against it. Will he cave to establishment pressure and flip? Hard to say.

    I may be overly pessimistic here Ė at one time I thought it was a done deal and now I think there's at least a chance of it failing, but I'm not at all convinced it won't go through.

    What say you guys? Will the bill pass or fail?
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  2. #2
    I am Groot AW Moderator Sage's Avatar
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    So, with the knowledge that The West Wing is a television show, back when I watched it, I remember them always having difficulty with bills they love getting amendments thrown on them that they hated but couldn't do anything about. What's keeping Democrats from amending this bill in such a way that many Republicans would want to drop it? Say, adding funding for abortions, as an example.
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  3. #3
    Lost in the Fog rugcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage View Post
    So, with the knowledge that The West Wing is a television show, back when I watched it, I remember them always having difficulty with bills they love getting amendments thrown on them that they hated but couldn't do anything about. What's keeping Democrats from amending this bill in such a way that many Republicans would want to drop it? Say, adding funding for abortions, as an example.
    So far no amendments from democrats are being allowed or accepted. I don't see that changing.
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  4. #4
    practical experience, FTW MaeZe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sage View Post
    So, with the knowledge that The West Wing is a television show, back when I watched it, I remember them always having difficulty with bills they love getting amendments thrown on them that they hated but couldn't do anything about. What's keeping Democrats from amending this bill in such a way that many Republicans would want to drop it? Say, adding funding for abortions, as an example.
    McConnell controls the calendar, for one.

    Consider step one in March: McConnell pledges 'robust' amendment process on healthcare bill.

    Step 2, two weeks ago: The Senate GOP's plan to repeal Obamacare: don't let anyone see their bill.
    no committee hearings were planned, and no expert testimony was heard. The text of a bill remains elusive; Senate aides told Axios that they wouldn’t release it until they absolutely must.
    Step 3, a hiccough at least: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his team are working furiously to round up 50 of the caucus’s 52 senators to even bring the bill to the floor, let alone pass it by week’s end.
    Trump and GOP leadership are doing all they can to tamp down criticism of the legislation and a voting timetable that will provide perhaps just a couple of days for senators to review the final product before a vote....The conservative Wisconsinite said McConnell should delay the vote for two weeks and also complained that conservatives’ suggestions to alter the bill in the Senate’s working group were mostly ignored.
    So much for democracy: How the GOP could go nuclear on Obamacare repeal
    McConnell will move to cut off the vote-a-rama if he feels Democrats are putting up votes on amendments purely as a delay tactic — a maneuver that would effectively be tantamount to a legislative nuclear option.

    Even though it appears highly unlikely to be triggered, it’s still a tool at McConnell’s disposal. And one of his top deputies said in an interview Wednesday that it remains an option....

    Here’s how it would work, according to Senate sources: McConnell would ask the chair if an amendment is considered dilatory and whether it’s allowed under the reconciliation process, a free-flowing process that allows for unlimited floor amendments. If the chair rules that it is allowed, then McConnell could tee up a vote on overturning that decision.
    Does anyone believe McConnell is interested in legit amendment proposals? They've already labeled proposed amendments as nothing more than obstruction and/or delaying tactics.


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    Last edited by MaeZe; 06-27-2017 at 07:12 AM.

  5. #5
    practical experience, FTW MaeZe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by rugcat View Post
    So far no amendments from democrats are being allowed or accepted. I don't see that changing.
    I tried to find a source for this and couldn't. I know in practice that is what will likely happen, so I'm not doubting you. But has McConnell made it official yet in some procedural move?

  6. #6
    Lost in the Fog rugcat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MaeZe View Post
    I tried to find a source for this and couldn't. I know in practice that is what will likely happen, so I'm not doubting you. But has McConnell made it official yet in some procedural move?
    I'm sure that the dems will be able to propose amendments. None of them will make it into the final bill.

    IF McConnell succeeds in getting a vote in the next couple of days, there isn't going to be a lot of time, even for republican amendments.
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    All about that action, boss. ElaineA's Avatar
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    Susan Collins has tweeted that she is a no-vote. I suppose that could change if they push back the vote to continue tweaking.
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    Trump will bribe whoever he needs to in order to get this passed. The government is now in the hands of old, angry white men who are determined to destroy Obama's legacy no matter who or what it hurts.

    Maybe in a few decades people will take the US seriously again. But now countries are walking away, working out new trade deals with leaders who they can trust. No one can take Trump seriously when he lies and bribes without anyone stopping him.

    And when people start dying they'll slough all the blame onto Obama, minorities and people not being "responsible".


  9. #9
    practical experience, FTW Tazlima's Avatar
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    Yes. It'll pass.

    All the republicans I've heard that said they weren't comfortable with it qualified that statement with "in its current form," or other terminology that implied it was pretty close to what they wanted to see, if not perfect. They'll hold out for a tweak or two, maybe, pay lip service against it to give the impression of being tough, but in the end, they'll join the others in the rush to kill off poor people.
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    RIP Prowl AW Moderator regdog's Avatar
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    I'll see if I can find the article I read today. So many Senators are getting calls overwhelming against the bill, that some are starting to hedge and they may not be able to push a vote this week. If they can't McConnell may drop repealing the ACA.


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    Lost in the Fog rugcat's Avatar
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    As expected, McConnell has delayed the healthcare bill vote until after the July 4 recess.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn...yed/index.html

    This will buy him a little more time for the little tweaks and more importantly, more time for arm twisting currently reluctant Republicans. Don't think the delay means the bill is finished, not by a long shot
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    I aim to misbehave Myrealana's Avatar
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    It will pass. Americans will die and go bankrupt in record numbers.

    Average Republicans will cheer because some women were "appropriately" punished for daring to have sex.

    The millionaires will sit back and count their money.

    We are witnessing the decline and fall of America as a country and an idea.
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    They will eventually pass something. They'll massage it just enough to get the objectors on board, and maybe get it through with Mike Pence's vote breaking a tie. Regardless, it will be appalling legislation, and reviled by most of the public. We'll have to see just how loud the noise gets, when people start actually feeling the pain.

    This is a very big deal up here in Alaska, a deeply red state which voted for Trump, and has two GOP senators, both of whom are getting a lot of public flak already. Murkowski is on the fence, and might remain one who votes against it. Sullivan, a newbie first-termer, has been loudly silent, and will go with the flow as deeply under the radar as he can get.

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    In case someone wants to see generally where people stand....

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...hip-count.html
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    In it's current form, no. The GOP will set this on the backburner for a while (hopefully) and get to work on Tax Reform while tweaks are made to the healthcare bill. Once changes have been agreed to and the bill is re-written to reflect these changes, they'll put it up for a vote and pass it down party lines. By mid-terms of 2018, the GOP will have passed their healthcare bill (an election promise) and tax reform (another election promise), thus guaranteeing their majority in both the House and Senate. Mix in one, maybe two more SCOTUS picks to secure the Court for decades, President Trump will solidify his base and all but guarantee his administration another four years in office.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR94 View Post
    By mid-terms of 2018, the GOP will have passed their healthcare bill (an election promise) and tax reform (another election promise), thus guaranteeing their majority in both the House and Senate.
    Considering the current public climate about the healthcare bill (better known as replacing Obamacare with Wedontcare), we'll just have to see. A lot depends on how the Democrats are able to repair their image and come up with better candidates. If they can't do that, they are screwed, and some of them (notably Al Franken) are publicly recognizing that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blacbird View Post
    Considering the current public climate about the healthcare bill (better known as replacing Obamacare with Wedontcare), we'll just have to see. A lot depends on how the Democrats are able to repair their image and come up with better candidates. If they can't do that, they are screwed, and some of them (notably Al Franken) are publicly recognizing that.

    caw
    The Deme need better leadership that what they have currently. Running AGAINST someone rather than FOR something has only led to failure for them. Based on their rhetoric from Pelosi and Schumer, they still fail to see that. As a Conservative, I hope they continue on their path of self-ruination.

  18. #18
    I aim to misbehave Myrealana's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR94 View Post
    The Deme need better leadership that what they have currently. Running AGAINST someone rather than FOR something has only led to failure for them.
    Why?

    It seems to have worked out for Republicans. They can only be AGAINST things. "Repeal Obamacare." "Build a wall." "Lock her up." "Ban Muslims." "Ban abortion." Against, against, against, against.

    The only things they're FOR are guns and tax cuts for people who don't need it.
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    newly weaponized be frank's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR94 View Post
    As a Conservative, I hope they continue on their path of self-ruination.
    The term "Conservative" seems like such a misnomer to me (at least recently). Conservatives don't seem to want to conserve anything, so much as wind the world back to some idealized past.


    Far as I'm concerned, it's progressives and regressives. Maybe that's just me.
    Last edited by be frank; 06-28-2017 at 06:50 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR94 View Post
    The Deme need better leadership that what they have currently. Running AGAINST someone rather than FOR something has only led to failure for them. Based on their rhetoric from Pelosi and Schumer, they still fail to see that. As a Conservative, I hope they continue on their path of self-ruination.
    The biggest issue that Democrats have is that the Republicans have rigged counties in numerous states(gerrymandering) to the point that people don't elect them, THEY elect the people(votes.) Until gerrymandering is corrected Jesus H Christ could run as a democrat and still lose in those districts.

    Your last sentence proves that you don't care about anything but 'winning' regardless of the damage it will do. The nation coming together to do what's right for the country as a whole? Nah... who needs that.
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    practical experience, FTW TCnKC's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYR94 View Post
    In it's current form, no. The GOP will set this on the backburner for a while (hopefully) and get to work on Tax Reform while tweaks are made to the healthcare bill. Once changes have been agreed to and the bill is re-written to reflect these changes, they'll put it up for a vote and pass it down party lines. By mid-terms of 2018, the GOP will have passed their healthcare bill (an election promise) and tax reform (another election promise), thus guaranteeing their majority in both the House and Senate. Mix in one, maybe two more SCOTUS picks to secure the Court for decades, President Trump will solidify his base and all but guarantee his administration another four years in office.

    And if all does come to pass this country will fall into another recession, perhaps worse than the 2008 one. We've had the Republicans control the WH, Senate and the House 3 times in the past 100 years. The previous two times we had the depression(20s) and most recently the financial collapse. But hey, at least they're winning right!!

    I want to believe that the country will fight through this(ultimately I do believe that) but what I fear and worry about is the damage/deaths(make no mistake people are going to die from the legislation being written now) from the path that this current regime is taking us on.
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  22. #22
    Pie aren't squared, pie are round! Introversion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TCnKC View Post
    I want to believe that the country will fight through this(ultimately I do believe that) but what I fear and worry about is the damage/deaths(make no mistake people are going to die from the legislation being written now) from the path that this current regime is taking us on.
    I used to think that, if GOP policies were ever fully enacted, at least I'd have schadenfreude to amuse me, as the voters most hurt by those policies came to realize that they should've been more careful with their wishes.

    But I no longer think that's likely to happen. Yes, Trumpcare will be a wholesale disaster for most Trump voters. But I suspect now that they'll find a way to blame it on Democrats / liberals / immigrants, and double-down in 2020 on stupid. "Trump wanted to keep his campaign promise not to gut Medicaid and Social Security, but the damned liberals made that impossible [by means not explained]. And at least he's better than Hillary would've been!"

  23. #23
    Just Another Lazy Perfectionist Brightdreamer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by be frank View Post
    The term "Conservative" seems like such a misnomer to me (at least recently). Conservatives don't seem to want to conserve anything, so much as wind the world back to some idealized past.


    Far as I'm concerned, it's progressives and regressives. Maybe that's just me.
    That's about how I see it, too. That's also why I tend to refer to them as the TeaOP rather than the GOP; they haven't been Republicans in the traditional sense of the word for years, co-opted by the Tea Party movement and a minority of big-money lobbyists and industries.

    As for the bill, they're bound and determined to destroy anything remotely related to Obama, so I sadly expect some iteration of this bill to make it through. Hate to even think that it'll take people they know and love actually being turned away from health care and dying to wake up some voters... especially the Sloth Party stay-at-homes. And by then it may be too late if gerrymandering and curbs on voting rights are entrenched.
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  24. #24
    I meant to do that. Lyv's Avatar
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    I live in Massachusetts, but still have called my senators, begging them to do all they can to oppose this. Asking friends in Red States to call theirs. Called the Senate Finance Office to get added to the tally of people who want a public hearing on the bill. I can't get out to protest yet but will be trying to do whatever I can to fight this (hey, I just got only the hospital bill for my last stay and it's $180,000 grand, and that's not counting the doctors' bills, home health visits and supplies, ambulance ride...so, please, no lifetime or annual cap, and if pre-existing condition exclusions come back, nothing would be covered).

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lyv View Post
    I live in Massachusetts, but still have called my senators, begging them to do all they can to oppose this. Asking friends in Red States to call theirs.
    Our two GOP Senators, Murkowski and Sullivan, are getting serious heat both from the public and from certain advocacy organizations, notably AARP. Both say at this moment they are "undecided" about which way to vote. I think the largely negative public reaction to this bill is beginning to produce itchy sweat on a fair number of Republicans.

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