As the world turns

Rolling Thunder · Aug 14, 2016

After Great Britain voted to leave the European Union I started looking for more examples of the impact of this type of change. These are historical fact:

http://www.toptenz.net/top-10-countries-that-disappeared-in-the-20th-century.php

These are hypothetical:

https://youtu.be/1vP3Ju7J4gk

I find some entries quite possible. Some cause skepticism. But most, given the supporting information in the video, are interesting.

Thoughts on the possibilities or probabilities?

regdog · Aug 14, 2016

Several of the countries in your first link never had a choice about existing. They were violently forged, over overtaken by other countries or political leaders, so it's tough to gauge them in relation to Great Briton, who voted this upon themselves. They agreed to be part of the EU and now decided to leave it. Many people not even understanding what a 'Leave' vote meant, or how it would affect GB.

Scotland is very vocal about wanting a new Independence vote since Brexit. If that happens they will lose a decent sized part of their overall economy.

If those remaining in the EU boycott GB, it could seriously damage GB and cause economic collapse, which they might not be able to recover from.

CassandraW · Aug 14, 2016

regdog said:
Several of the countries in your first link never had a choice about existing. They were violently forged, over overtaken by other countries or political leaders

*snip*

Actually, I think pretty most of them fall into that category. And yes, I do think that's a bit different.

James D. Macdonald · Aug 14, 2016

Seriously, the Ottoman Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire? I don't think they qualify as "countries" to start with.

As to Texas and Alaska seceding? Not gonna happen.

Rolling Thunder · Aug 14, 2016

I agree that most countries fall into the category of created by conquest. My thoughts are from the pov regarding socioeconomic consequences of the global economy. North Korea is one example of a country failing economically like the USSR. China was a bit of a surprise to me.

Other thoughts:

I think the US example citing social unrest is a bit stretched but interesting.

The video was fairly accurate on Great Britain's potential, given the time span between the video's creation vs the UK vote.

The Maldive example is different since it faces an Atlantis type demise of rising oceans, but it still represents a variation of global change.

I was a bit surprised Quebec didn't show up on the hypothetical list.

regdog · Aug 14, 2016

I think what is going to be a large factor is GB's success if they do follow through with leaving the EU is how they are then treated by the EU. If they are isolated and boycotted it will be financially devastating. Losing economic cooperation, trade and tourism may be insurmountable to recover from. Negotiating new trade deals with EU nations could put GB on the losing end with high tariffs and fees.

According to Bloomberg leaving the EU could seriously damage GB's trade options with Asia, given their need for new trade pacts and Asia Governments brokering deals best for them not GB.

Link 1 Bloomberg GB and Asia

Link 2 GB trade options after Brexit.

As the world turns

Rolling Thunder

regdog

The Scavengers

CassandraW

James D. Macdonald

Your Genial Uncle

Rolling Thunder

regdog

The Scavengers