So Who is going to Win in New Hampshire?

On the Republican side, Rubio might pull off the upset and get some momentum. On the Democratic side, it'll definitely be Bernie.

I agree with the consensus that Bernie will win on the Democratic side.

The Republican side is more difficult to call. The polls make it look like a Trump landslide, but my gut says it's probably going to be closer than that. I'm no Nate Silver, but my best guess would still be Trump, followed by Rubio and Kasich just edging past Cruz, in that order. Bush looks like he's stuck in 5th. Christie, Fiorina and Carson in a battle royale for 6th.

I'd also guess that Christie and Fiorina will drop out, after the results are in.

Bernie's a lock.

Before last night's debate, I would've said Rubio probably had a decent chance of pulling it out on the Republican side, but Christie went after him and he imploded. Like... bad. He repeated the same canned line about Obama twice three times, which Christie then pointed out is a tactic used by those who don't know what they're talking about and can't think beyond a stump speech, which Rubio responded to by... repeating the line again. Pretty much up there with Perry's "oops" moment.

For anyone who's curious, but didn't watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IeyxiLT9R6M

I'm tempted to repeat my last long-shot pick of an upset by Kasich, who showed himself to be at least semi-rational, but apparently, that's a bad thing in a Republican primary so, I'm guessing Trump or Cruz.

Latest polls have Trump up by 17-21 points. I think he will win, by not by that much. The rest is a guess. Rubio stumbled early in the debate and then rallied later- but did viewers stay around long enough to see it? Kasich was polling fairly well and may surprise - he could come in second. The other Governors need to do well to have any chance at winning the nomination.
Predicted order of finish: Trump, Kasich, Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Bush, Carson, Fiorina.

I was out all night and so I didn't see it. But I'll leave this here.

I have to say Sanders and Trump, given the poll numbers. But even if they both win, the margin of victory will be scrutinized. Both really need to win pretty big, or it will look like a loss. After his bizarre debate debacle, Rubio might now have the most at stake. He was never going to win, but his percentage of the vote will be really important.

caw

The wild card in New Hampshire is that about 40% of voters are "undeclared" - meaning they can choose which primary to vote in. If they decide to vote in the GOP primary, I'd expect Kasich to get a boost - if they go Democrat, then Sanders might benefit.
Like Iowa, Trump is at risk if he doesn't match expectations, even if he wins.
I also expect that one or two of the Governors will be on their way out soon - unless there is a virtual 3-way tie.

My money is on the Carolina Panthers.

robeiae said:

My money is on the Carolina Panthers.

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I'm fumbling for a good reply to that.

For what it's worth, when I was in NH over the weekend, I saw more JEB signs than anyone else. Then again, for all I know, it could be one guy going crazy putting signs everywhere.

ErezMA said:

For what it's worth, when I was in NH over the weekend, I saw more JEB signs than anyone else. Then again, for all I know, it could be one guy going crazy putting signs everywhere.

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JEB has a crapload of money, which he is now spending in desperation. Signs do not equate to votes. I think the Bush dynasty is currently surviving on a ventilator, which will soon be unplugged.

caw

James D. Macdonald said:

New Hampshire has a winter storm forecast.

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If so, who will that favor on the dem side?

I would imagine Bernie, because his supporters are more passionate. On the other hand, his support is strongest with young people who often don't make it to the polls anyway and might not feel like going out in a storm. On the other other hand, bad weather won't bother them as much as it might older people.

On the GOP side, is it possible bad weather would tend to make voters who are still undecided just stay home? And who would that hurt the most?

James D. Macdonald said:

Hart's Location:

Sanders -- 12
Clinton -- 7
Greenstein -- 2

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Quick question -- is Greenstein an abbreviation for Green Party / Jill Stein, perhaps? Or is there a Democrat running I've not heard about?

ETA: Apparently, it's Mark Stewart Greenstein. Question answered.

Aaaaand…. Sanders jumps out to an insurmountable lead. All the analysts agree that Clinton absolutely HAD to win Dixville Notch in order to stay competitive, and she just couldn't cut it, apparently.

Sorry Hillary. There's always South Carolina.

James D. Macdonald said:

This isn't true. Back in 2008 she had no votes in Dixville Notch and went on to take the state.

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But to be fair, that was 2008 when she was a completely different person/candidate.

When do the Petticoat Junction results come in?

When do the Grover's Corners results come in?

Hobb's End?

robeiae said:

Hobb's End?

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Bag End results:

1 sanders
2 Precioussssss
3 Sam
1 Trump/Sauron