Russian Air Strikes in Syria

William Haskins · Sep 30, 2015

he's highly selective and incursions into those countries strengthen his economic position at home and feed the nationalism. nationalistic nations with strong economies and expansionist ambitions and ample natural resources on a war footing behind a leader of questionable democratic legitimacy but with extraordinary popular support do turn out to be bothersome, historically speaking.

robeiae · Sep 30, 2015

Can you cite any examples?

William Haskins · Sep 30, 2015

luxembourg?

new jersey?

robeiae · Sep 30, 2015

Yeah, that Duchess Marie-Adélaïde was a real pain.

raburrell · Sep 30, 2015

William Haskins said:
he's highly selective and incursions into those countries strengthen his economic position at home and feed the nationalism. nationalistic nations with strong economies and expansionist ambitions and ample natural resources on a war footing behind a leader of questionable democratic legitimacy but with extraordinary popular support do turn out to be bothersome, historically speaking.

Yep.

William Haskins · Sep 30, 2015

It began with a phone call from a Russian diplomat to his counterpart in Baghdad to say "we've got something interesting to tell you".

Then a three-star Russian general leaves the Russian embassy compound and knocks on the door of the American one, and asks to see the US military attache.

He tells the American military man that bombing starts in an hour, so you'd better get out of Syrian airspace now and move any assets you have off the ground. And 60 minutes later, the bombing started.

Wow. To say the Americans were blindsided by this unorthodox line of communication is to put it mildly. Having had their "clear the air" meeting on Monday night there was an anticipation that though there might be big policy differences, there would be a degree of co-ordination and openness.

Just consider this - the risks of a US fighter plane running into a Russian one with unimaginable consequences has just ratcheted up. Are they going to take it on turns to bomb targets? One day it's the Americans and their allies, the next day it's the Russians. You don't need to be a military historian to know that that is not going to fly (so to speak).

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34405983

William Haskins · Sep 30, 2015

live updates

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...of-Russian-troops-in-Syria-approved-live.html

William Haskins · Sep 30, 2015

putin arriving at the UN

frimble3 · Sep 30, 2015

William Haskins said:
Then a three-star Russian general leaves the Russian embassy compound and knocks on the door of the American one, and asks to see the US military attache.

He tells the American military man that bombing starts in an hour, so you'd better get out of Syrian airspace now and move any assets you have off the ground. And 60 minutes later, the bombing started.

Wow. To say the Americans were blindsided by this unorthodox line of communication is to put it mildly. Having had their "clear the air" meeting on Monday night there was an anticipation that though there might be big policy differences, there would be a degree of co-ordination and openness.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34405983

Well, isn't that the gist of the Russian general's message? "Clear the air!"
If Putin had been a bit more subtle, he could have had it all: bomb a few ISIS strongholds, be a hero to the West, then 'accidentally' bomb a few rebel strongholds, be a hero to Assad, while shrugging and muttering "Oops!" to the West.

Vince524 · Oct 1, 2015

As I understand it, they didn't hit anywhere near a Isis controlled area.

William Haskins · Oct 1, 2015

oh goody. putin's ground support is arriving:

The sources that Reuters have spoken to say the arrival of Iranian troops with weapons and Hizbollah joining the operation aims to help Bashar al-Assad recapture territory.

The ground operation would accompany the Russian strikes as mentioned: "The (Russian) air strikes will in the near future be accompanied by ground advance by the Syrian army and its allies," one of the sources said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...n-Syria-on-Isil-to-US-anger-live-updates.html

William Haskins · Oct 1, 2015

more:

Hundreds of Iranian troops have arrived in Syria in the last 10 days and will soon join government forces and their Lebanese Hezbollah allies in a major ground offensive backed by Russian air strikes, two Lebanese sources told Reuters.

"The (Russian) air strikes will in the near future be accompanied by ground advances by the Syrian army and its allies," said one of the sources familiar with political and military developments in the conflict.

"It is possible that the coming land operations will be focused in the Idlib and Hama countryside," the source added.

The two sources said the operation would be aimed at recapturing territory lost by President Bashar al-Assad's government to rebels.

It points to an emerging military alliance between Russia and Assad's other main allies - Iran and Hezbollah - focused on recapturing areas of northwestern Syria that were seized by insurgents in rapid advances earlier this year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/01/us-mideast-crisis-syria-iranians-idUSKCN0RV4DN20151001

Vince524 · Oct 1, 2015

Jesus, this is a disaster.

c.e.lawson · Oct 1, 2015

Good thing the Iran deal is freeing up billions for Iran to be even more helpful in the future in situations like this.

Ravioli · Oct 1, 2015

Military super power logic: let's end war and destruction in a country that's none of our business, by amping the war and destruction by 10 million because our violence is more productive than theirs.

William Haskins · Oct 1, 2015

i would suggest that the 9 million refugees cowering in the shadows in syria or streaming into neighboring and not-so-neighboring countries make this everyone's business.

we can argue as to whether or not the feckless attempts by western powers to wag their fingers at assad while sissy slap-fighting ISIS caused this critical mass of refugees, but at this point, the piss is on the pool and inaction isn't really an option.

Diana Hignutt · Oct 1, 2015

William Haskins said:
i would suggest that the 9 million refugees cowering in the shadows in syria or streaming into neighboring and not-so-neighboring countries make this everyone's business.

we can argue as to whether or not the feckless attempts by western powers to wag their fingers at assad while sissy slap-fighting ISIS caused this critical mass of refugees, but at this point, the piss is on the pool and inaction isn't really an option.

Stay out of the pool?

Vince524 · Oct 1, 2015

Diana Hignutt said:
Stay out of the pool?

Doesn't mean you're not going to get wet if you're in the splash zone.

Should we just sit back, watch as hundreds of thousands of people are butchered and the powers that are behind it grow in strength and shrug our shoulders that it's not our problem until they come knocking on our door? Do we really think they won't?

Ravioli · Oct 1, 2015

Vince524 said:
Doesn't mean you're not going to get wet if you're in the splash zone.

Should we just sit back, watch as hundreds of thousands of people are butchered and the powers that are behind it grow in strength and shrug our shoulders that it's not our problem until they come knocking on our door? Do we really think they won't?

Except, when america or Russia join the fights, more are butchered.

Vince524 · Oct 1, 2015

Ravioli said:
Except, when america or Russia join the fights, more are butchered.

Russia is already in there. They want to control the Middle East, prop up Assad and be The superpower of the world.

They're bombing the people who are supposed to be our allies.

Again, should we do nothing?

Don · Oct 1, 2015

Diana Hignutt said:
Stay out of the pool?

Putin Is in Syria: So What?

For a long time, the U.S. has been the dominant military power in the region. What has been so great about that? Instead of making us safer, our role has given us more enemies. If Putin wants to invite jihadists to turn their attention from attacking America to attacking Russia, more power to him.
...
Obama's critics portray him as weak and lost in the face of the bold Russian challenge. But the truth is he's engaged in geopolitical jujitsu, using the opponent's strengths against him. He's avoiding risks that carry no commensurate rewards.

The president understands that we don't know how to restore peace and stability to Syria. Putin probably doesn't either, but he may have to find out the hard way.

Have people forgotten the impact Afghanistan had on the former USSR? Apparently Putin has.

Do people really want the history books to describe the impact of the middle east on the former USA?

c.e.lawson · Oct 1, 2015

Rubio predicted this would happen, back on Sept 16 at the Republican debate

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4522177655001/marco-rubio-on-putins-power-play-in-syria/?#sp=show-clips

Can we just put him or Fiorina in now for foreign policy? Carly's got some ideas as well:

http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/09/...ow-she-would-deal-unholy-alliance-middle-east

Fiorina said there is no doubt that Russia will be conducting airstrikes against anti-Assad rebels. Whether or not they happen to strike a few ISIS folks as well has yet to be determined, she added.

The former Hewlett-Packard CEO said the U.S. should establish a no-fly zone around anti-Assad rebels, who are supposed to be supported by the U.S.

"We must make it crystal clear to Russia, they do not get to move into the Middle East and become the dominant outside power, which is clearly their intention," Fiorina said.

She added that she would also work more closely with the Turks, the Kurds and our Sunni Arab allies, who view these recent developments with great alarm.

Note Trump's view towards the end of Rubio's interview - he actually thought Russia was trying to fight Isis. :Headbang:

when asked about Putin wanting to run Syria, he said, "All right, fine!" (Trump the chump)

Edited to Add: Ah, I see Don's article has a similar view to Trump's. (Although with more reasoning and detail

)

raburrell · Oct 1, 2015

Exactly how does Fiorina expect to make that clear to the Russians?

Also, you either work with the Turks or you work with the Kurds. They each get a little touchy when you decide to work with the other.

The whole situation sucks, it's tragic, awful, and any other dictionary synonym for terrible, but in a geopolitical sense it's just a case of Putin taking advantage of the situation for his own domestic gain, and there's really no way for us to intervene without making things worse.

In terms of analysis, some good stuff here: Vox

So why is Putin doing this? As Amanda Taub has written, Syria is the sum of many of his greatest fears: fear of anarchy, fear of populist uprisings, fear of Western meddling, fear of any authoritarian regime's downfall, and fear of an ever-encroaching global chaos — all forces that Putin believes could one day be turned against him. What he's pursuing is not a brilliant, grand strategy of expanding Russian power, but rather a desperate effort to stave off these forces that so frighten him.

and here: Anne Applebaum at Slate

All of which misses the main point. For Putin’s entry into Syria, like almost everything else that he does, is part of his own bid to stay in power. During the first 10 years he was president, Putin’s claim to legitimacy went, in effect, like this: I may not be a democrat, but I give you stability, a rise in economic growth, and pensions paid on time. In an era of falling oil prices and economic sanctions, not to mention vast public-sector corruption, that argument no longer works. Russians are demonstrably poorer this year than they were last year, and things look set to get worse. And so his new argument goes, in effect, like this: “I may not be a democrat and the economy may be sinking, but Russia is regaining its place in the world—and besides, the alternative to authoritarianism is not democracy but chaos.”

There's another one I read earlier that had an excellent metaphor about disadvantaged chess, but I can't find again, grr

Diana Hignutt · Oct 1, 2015

Vince524 said:
Russia is already in there. They want to control the Middle East, prop up Assad and be The superpower of the world.

They're bombing the people who are supposed to be our allies.

Again, should we do nothing?

Let's see...how did the last crisis in the ME we "had" to get involved in work out? Killing more Americans won't solve the problem. How many lives and limbs and billions will this morass cost us? How do we win? Is there a way through towards a goal? What is it? If we go in and take out Assad, Al Queda, ISIS, what's to stop the FSA from becoming the next bad guy? And now, we'll have WW3 just a mistake away. Sometimes a moral imperative to do something is a dangerous thing. Do what? And how will it make it better?

William Haskins · Oct 1, 2015

Russia admits targeting non-Isis groups in Syria as airstrikes continue

Russian combat aircraft have carried out a second day of airstrikes against Syrian rebel forces as Moscow admitted it had targeted groups other than Islamic State in coordination with the government in Damascus.

Vladimir Putin, seizing on US and western disarray, had insisted earlier that Russia was targeting Isis. But Moscow appeared to admit it was striking more widely as American-backed rebels reported that they had been hit.

The US accused Russia of launching “indiscriminate military operations against the Syrian opposition” and the White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the airstrikes had targeted areas where there were “few if any” Isis forces.

Meanwhile, Russian and US military commanders began “de-confliction” talks to try to ensure their air forces did not inadvertently clash while conducting overlapping air campaigns. But a videoconference between Pentagon officials and their Russian counterparts ended without clear decisions on avoiding potential clashes between pilots.

Iran said it backed the Russian intervention, while unconfirmed reports that Iranian forces were also being deployed in Syria heightened tensions and deepened confusion over the escalating crisis.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/01/russia-targeting-non-isis-groups-syria-airstrikes

Russian Air Strikes in Syria

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Touch and go

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Touch and go

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Heckuva good sport

Are you gonna finish that bacon?

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Are you gonna finish that bacon?

Crazy Cat Lady

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Very Tired

Are you gonna finish that bacon?

Crazy Cat Lady

Are you gonna finish that bacon?

All Living is Local

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Very Tired

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