Your Opinion: The Future of Publishing

no
yes
yes
mostly same
every industry has it's peaks and valleys
harder, as there is now more competition; more choices for readers

One of the biggest problems with trade publishing right now is trying to compete with the pricing of self publishing in my opinion. At least in some genres.

Still no ebooks aren't taking over entirely, because people do still want to buy print books in shops.

I don't like how the media paints self-publishing with this broad brush and how it's revolutionizing the industry. They usually trot out 'Fifty Shades' as an example without mentioning that the vast majority of self-published authors make virtually nothing for their efforts.

- No, I don't think ebooks are taking over. In some genres, the percentage of ebook purchases have even slid backwards.

- I'm no fortune teller, but there is no indication that trade publishing houses are on the endangered species list.

- Yes, the chances of getting a contract are about the same as it's been for a good, long while.

- From what I'm hearing, the range of advances has been relatively stable for some time.

- The big houses, by their own reports, have gained back a little of the ground they'd lost, but it's a fluid thing. Some days are better than others. The massive success of recent blockbuster books (Harry Potter, Twilight, 50 Shades, Gone Girl, Go Set A Watchman, etc.) have poured billions into the major houses. They're pretty damned rich.

- I would think things are about the same for new writers as they've been for the last fifteen years - at least with the Big 5 and major independent publishers. In those contexts, ebooks offer just another delivery method for stories and information, not strongly influence who gets published. The biggest change has not been ebooks, but email and, before that, word processing programs. Those two things flooded the industry with many, many more manuscripts and people who felt like trying to get published. It made it incredibly easy for people who thought they had a book in them. Whether that was good or bad for the industry and for literature is a matter of debate. I tend to think that it was a good thing, with some notable caveats.

Obviously, self-publishing opportunities are available to anyone and that's new-ish.

dirtroadfilms said:

What's your opinion on the state of the business today, and where you think it's going in the next ten or so years?

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The business is changing so much it's hard to say what'll happen in the next two years, let alone the next ten.

Are e-books taking over completely?

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No. Have paperbacks taken over completely? Why the hell do we need hard covers when paperbacks are cheaper and more convenient? See the similarities? Readers have their preferences; digital is just another preference. Most readers don't have e-readers and many readers prefer physical copies.

Will traditional houses remain forever?

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You shouldn't twist questions like this. You're making it sound like trade publishers somehow need to go away.

Trade publishers have their place and certainly self-publishing will not take over anytime soon.

Are the chances of acquiring a deal the same now as a few years ago?

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A few years ago? Not so much. A few decades? A lot. Fifty years ago? Certainly.

Has advance pay changed lately, or is it the same as it always was?

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Again, lately? Not so much. The past five to ten years? Yes. I've heard that the advances have been polarized to either lower or higher than what was the norm years ago. Although advances from small publishers can be different.

Are the big houses as rich as they used to be? Or are they dying a slow death?

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Again. If you're polling for thoughts, don't twist the questions.

It's debatable. The big publishers aren't as large as they used to be, but that can be due to a lot of factors like economy and the business of small publishers coming out strong. Big publishers certainly aren't going away, and if they do the book market will probably crumble away.

I think a really relevant question along side this is: Are big distributors taking over? Amazon, for example, controls a massive amount of the book market and it's a bit hard for a self-published author to sell elsewhere. This can force self-published authors to Amazon's control.

Are things easier for new writers, or harder, than before the e-book revolution?

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Don't twist questions.

First thing, e-books are not revolutionary. They have not changed anything. E-book is just a new format.

It's easier for people to get their shit out on the market. Most self-published books are rubbish because anyone nowadays can push their stuff online. In the past, a self-publisher had to spend a lot of money to print copies and sell them by themselves. They had to be perfectly sure that their book was perfectly ready to invest that much time and money. Not the same now. Digital publishing is great for authors who otherwise wouldn't be able to invest that much time and money. And, self-published books depend almost entirely on how hard the author works on their books.

With trade publishing, I don't believe it's any harder to get published than a decade ago. Perhaps it's even easier with small publishers taking in previously ruled out genres and taking more chances.

I don't know how to ask this tastefully so I'll just go ahead,

How much does a publisher pay in advance for a book they plan to release electronically? Does it depend on the genre or length? What kind of royalties are standard in an ebook contract?

From what I've heard about traditional publishing a first time novelist usually gets a $5,000 advance and a print run of around 10,000 copies. How does this compare to ebook publishing (obviously the copies would be unlimited but the advance is basically half the possible royalties for the whole print run)?

HeavyAirship said:

I don't know how to ask this tastefully so I'll just go ahead,

How much does a publisher pay in advance for a book they plan to release electronically? Does it depend on the genre or length? What kind of royalties are standard in an ebook contract?

From what I've heard about traditional publishing a first time novelist usually gets a $5,000 advance and a print run of around 10,000 copies. How does this compare to ebook publishing (obviously the copies would be unlimited but the advance is basically half the possible royalties for the whole print run)?

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But when the "print run" is unlimited, the advance would be half of infinity?

Most e-pubs that I've worked with either give no advance or a small one (about $1K). That's in Romance, which is one of the better-established genres in e-pub-land. Most e-pubs pay a higher percentage in royalties, so it's really a fairly different business model, and therefore hard to compare in any sort of direct way. Lower or no advance, fewer paperback sales, possibly lower sales overall (possibly not) but higher royalties per sale vs. advance, bookstore distribution, possibly higher sales overall (possibly not) but lower royalties per book.

HeavyAirship said:

From what I've heard about traditional publishing a first time novelist usually gets a $5,000 advance and a print run of around 10,000 copies.

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That's not good information you've gotten. All the debut novelists I know (and it's a fair few) have gotten substantially more than that in both advance and print run. That doesn't mean that there aren't deals like this, only that it's any kind of standard.

Perks said:

That's not good information you've gotten. All the debut novelists I know (and it's a fair few) have gotten substantially more than that in both advance and print run. That doesn't mean that there aren't deals like this, only that it's any kind of standard.

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Well that's good news! I got my information from Uncle Jim's thread but the post is probably over a decade old by now.

HeavyAirship said:

Well that's good news! I got my information from Uncle Jim's thread but the post is probably over a decade old by now.

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I should probably put in the qualifier that the people I know write mostly crime fiction, commercial/mainstream fiction, and some literary, so there could be different expectations in different quadrants, too.

gingerwoman said:

The problem with trade publishing now is trying to compete with the pricing of self publishing in my opinion.

Still no ebooks aren't taking over, because people do still want to buy print books in shops.

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Quality always wins out, and in this area, trade publishing is not being threatened by self-publishing in any way.

Fantomas said:

I don't like how the media paints self-publishing with this broad brush and how it's revolutionizing the industry. They usually trot out 'Fifty Shades' as an example without mentioning that the vast majority of self-published authors make virtually nothing for their efforts.

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And Fifty Shades of Grey wasn't self published that's the funny/annoying thing. (Ugg ever Wikipedia has this wrong in their FSOG article, despite the fact I can find other articles quoting EL James trying to address the misconception. The inaccuracy is just annoying.)

Unless you count her self publishing her Twilight fan fic on a fan fic site, but that story was called Master of the Universe. NOT Fifty Shades of Grey.

It did however clearly have something to do with her success. (Having a huge fan fiction fan base before going with a small epublisher.)

But I don't agree that the media is always doing what you're saying. I've seen negative articles that make it sound like it's impossible for anyone to do well, which is also nonsense.

Fantomas said:

I don't like how the media paints self-publishing with this broad brush and how it's revolutionizing the industry. They usually trot out 'Fifty Shades' as an example without mentioning that the vast majority of self-published authors make virtually nothing for their efforts.

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I have seen some one-sided articles like this, touting the examples of a few self-published authors who made Huge Money. But anyone who actually reviews books receives heaps of unsolicited self-published books and hence should know just how few of them are appealing enough to sell well. When I write about self-publishing, I always try to convey how diverse it is: there are occasional huge successes, many authors who aren't famous but who are doing well with it, and a vast number of writers whose books will not be read by anyone but friends and family.

The biggest "revolution," from my perspective as a book reviewer, is in the sheer volume of books getting printed and sent to me. Frankly, it can be depressing to look through them. Even more depressing when writers tell me that they are self-publishing because they heard that's how to get an agent, a trade deal, a film deal, etc. But it's still encouraging to see writers who are committed to self-publishing and doing it in smart ways, getting stories out there that might not have had a commercial market.

Here's my perspective.

Both at NASA and Boeing I was assigned to technology task forces to help our company better make a five-year plan for growth. We were given a few guidelines, including these. Explore not only the obvious but the UNOBVIOUS. And look for SECONDARY forces which would amplify the effects of core technologies.

How does that help us explore the future of publishing? Here are a few ideas. Maybe you can add to or adjust them.

Ebooks are the obvious future tech. But less obvious is how much printing on paper has advanced in the past decades and is likely to continue to advance. Paper is becoming cheaper, better, and more varied. Printing presses are becoming smaller, better, and cheaper to operate and maintain. Result: though numbers fluctuate yearly the overall numbers and varieties of books printed continues to increase. This trend is especially likely to continue and grow as more countries improve their printing tech.

This is especially obvious in non-fiction books. The number and variety of books which are aided by printed images continues healthy growth. Not just in glossy hardback full-color books such as those for cooking, gardening, home and auto repair, textbooks and so, but also in paperbacks with matte paper. And comic book aficionados have seen similar improvements in our books. This includes one of my favorite trends, the rise of the graphic novel: a book with a complete and complex long story line on high-quality paper.

What are some of the secondary forces which enhance publishing? You probably have already id'd one: more books are being made into movies. More and more popular books are being optioned; some even make it to the screen. This is true not only for those with blockbuster potential, but ones which lend themselves to smaller and more intimate features. Adding to this is the growth of cable and now streaming companies adding the potential buyers of options.

I'll even go one better and suggest a tertiary force: film-making technology. Its cheaper and easier nowadays to create small independent films - though still neither cheap nor easy!

One element is both unobvious and secondary in both book and film creation. This is the increasing number and quality of communities of creators who share ideas directly. I'm a member of several film-making forums. In publishing a big player is AW. In the three years I've been a part of it I've learned a lot from the smart people here who've shared their insights. I'm convinced that I'm a better writer because of this. If I ever produce a bestseller, especially if it becomes a blockbuster movie, one of the first things I'll do with my advances is contribute big to AW!

Laer Carroll said:

Paper is becoming cheaper, better, and more varied.

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The bolded may come as a great surprise to publishers.

caw

Laer Carroll said:

Paper is becoming cheaper, better, and more varied.

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blacbird said:

The bolded may come as a great surprise to publishers.

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The price of paper fluctuates like any other commodity, based on demand. Also on supply of wood pulp (the most-favored ingredient of paper). In the last five years the price has risen not quite 3% per year and is expected to continue for the next three years.

Looked at over a period of decades, however, the price has declined fairly steadily. This is because the technology behind paper production has improved, driven in large part by demand.

Another factor in the increased demand for paper books is the quality of the paper. It has become sturdier and more resistant to oxidation and thus color changes. It holds ink better, with less need for a glossy coat (which adds to the cost of paper).

An overlooked printed-book production cost is that of binding. The sturdiest type is saddle stitching: backs sown together. Improved glues have reduced the need for saddle stitching (plus other types of binding such as stapling).

The proof of all these (and many other developments) is that printed books are more popular than ever.

Plus, ebook sales seemed to have reached a plateau for the time being at about 27% of the total market. A good discussion of this trend is at the following link at GeekWire.

http://www.geekwire.com/2015/paper-back-real-books-rebound/

dirtroadfilms said:

Found these, thought I'd share:

http://authorearnings.com/report/september-2015-author-earnings-report/

http://authorearnings.com/report/in...tracked-across-7-quarters-feb-2014-sept-2015/

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There's some dodgy use of stats in that first link. Given that, I didn't bother to look at the second one.

As a reader and consumer I still buy novels and short story collections, just like I always did. I do buy them almost exclusively as ebooks unless (like the annual Pushcart Prize anthologies) they are only available in print. Oh, and I buy paper collections of my favortie comic strips, like Pearls Before Swine graphic novels in print. I just don't enjoy those on the tablet.

So to your question, I think the only changes in the last 100 years (when large-scale increases in literacy rates, increased leisure time of the masses, and cheap publishing technology brought the printed word to millions of new customers) have been ebooks and the resulting ease and lower cost of self publishing. The content of the books and the overall ways we tell stories have remained largely the same.

HeavyAirship said:

I don't know how to ask this tastefully so I'll just go ahead,

How much does a publisher pay in advance for a book they plan to release electronically? Does it depend on the genre or length? What kind of royalties are standard in an ebook contract?

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I got a three-ebook contract with Penguin Random House imprint called Alibi. They gave me a choice. $2500/book advance with 25% royalty, or no advance with a 50% royalty. I chose the 50% option.

dirtroadfilms said:

Hi everyone! I see the most recent posts on this topic are five years old so I thought I'd ask your recent thoughts on these points:

What's your opinion on the state of the business today, and where you think it's going in the next ten or so years?

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Publishing changes. That's the only constant in the business.

Are e-books taking over completely?

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Nope. In fact, sales of e-books have started to fall, rather than increase.

Will traditional houses remain forever?

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If by "traditional houses" you mean "trade publishers" then yep, I think they'll be around for as long as people want to read books. Their businesses will change and develop, but they won't disappear.

Are the chances of acquiring a deal the same now as a few years ago?

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The chances of getting a trade deal are different for each book written, so that's impossible to answer straight. If you've written a great book with strong commercial potential, your chances are good and have always been good. If you've written a not-so-great book, your chances are not so great.

Has advance pay changed lately, or is it the same as it always was?

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How long is that piece of string?

Are the big houses as rich as they used to be? Or are they dying a slow death?

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If you think the big houses are "rich" you don't know much about publishing. Compared to other industries, publishing is not wealthy. But no, they're not dying.

Are things easier for new writers, or harder, than before the e-book revolution?

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That depends on the writer and the book.

gingerwoman said:

One of the biggest problems with trade publishing right now is trying to compete with the pricing of self publishing in my opinion. At least in some genres.

Still no ebooks aren't taking over entirely, because people do still want to buy print books in shops.

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To be honest, ginger, most trade publishers don't even notice most self publishing. The two business models are so very different that they barely intersect.

HeavyAirship said:

I don't know how to ask this tastefully so I'll just go ahead,

How much does a publisher pay in advance for a book they plan to release electronically? Does it depend on the genre or length? What kind of royalties are standard in an ebook contract?

From what I've heard about traditional publishing a first time novelist usually gets a $5,000 advance and a print run of around 10,000 copies. How does this compare to ebook publishing (obviously the copies would be unlimited but the advance is basically half the possible royalties for the whole print run)?

Click to expand...

It depends on the genre, very much; and on the book. Some print books might just get $5,000 advance; others get considerably more. Judging from my friends, most get considerably more. E-books are different: publishers which specialise in them tend to pay a lot, lot less for advances.

Advances are calculated on the numbers a book is expected to sell; they are not "basically half the possible royalties for the whole print run".

dirtroadfilms said:

Found these, thought I'd share:

http://authorearnings.com/report/september-2015-author-earnings-report/

http://authorearnings.com/report/in...tracked-across-7-quarters-feb-2014-sept-2015/

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We have several threads here which discuss how unreliable the stats contained in those reports are. You'll find them if you do a quick search. I wouldn't rely on them for anything other than a quick bit of click-bait.

Old Hack said:

To be honest, ginger, most trade publishers don't even notice most self publishing. The two business models are so very different that they barely intersect.

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When it comes to catagory length romance I think it is noticeable, because of all the cheap and free ebooks. They seem to be making a dent in trade publishing romance sales.

At least I hear a lot of talk about it in the romance writing communities.

I also notice whole shelves of romance books from imprints of more than one publisher just disappear completely from all the places they used to be in my local area.

Harlequin shelves have disappeared from our version of Target, from the Grocery store, from the local chain book store. As have shelves of shorter Avon romance books, leaving only the really big names and big books Nora Roberts and Daniel Steel etc... in any of those locations.

Have E-books taken over completely?

Ummm... I don't think so?

*looks at Kindle decice which has about 100 ebooks*

*Then looks all around the room at several shelves practically bursting with paperbacks and hardcover books--which is probably double or triple the amount of books, compared to the smaller collection of ebooks*

Er, for me, no, ebooks have not taken over, even though I do buy both print and ebooks.

My dad had to build an extra shelf to hold my print books, lol.

Now, in terms of trade publishers, obviously I have tend to have waaaay more books from the trade publishers, especially the Big Five. So, nope, trade publishing is not dead to me yet, hehe.

Like any business, I assume that publishing has its ups and downs, and will adapt as technology advances, etc. I feel that trade publishing will still be around. I mean, they have ebooks nowadays, too. I enjoy having both a print and ebook copy of a book if I can afford it. I still prefer the feel of print books.