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In the mindset for writing an international thriller, I've suddenly hacked how geopolitical chess works, viewed through a primitive filter.
My official prognosis for the Kremlin's maneuvers in the near future (with the aside that Putin is still in power):
1. The next former USSR country to experience hybrid warfare will be Moldova, along the lines of the Transnistria breakaway republic and Gagauz region;
2. An attempt to drive a wedge between NATO and EU allies Bulgaria and Rumania will be along the lines of Moldova's Bulgarian minority (unlike the pro-Rumanian Moldovan majority);
3. An attempt to bribe Bulgarian patriots to help with the dismemberment of the Ukraine and Moldova, along the lines of the Bulgarian minorities in the west the Ukraine, who conveniently border with the "Bulgarian" parts of Moldova and could, through swift action, combine into a sort of second Bulgaria, instead of South Moldova and Western Ukraine;
4. An attempt to bribe the southern losers of the EU to begin drifting away from their memberships in the union, through providing loans and preferential prices for the planned new pipe-line through Turkey and Greece and Serbia and so on; providing constant financing through "loans" to unti-EU parties everywhere, with the view of them orchestrating referendums that slowly destroy the union;
5. The ages old idea of China and Russia combining into a union of an industrious nation and a warrior-caste nation to cancel out the West's collective clout will begin to be tried out experimentally in South America. China commences building the Nicaraguan channel, while Russian warships provide the protection. The long-sought-for solid foothold on this continent is finally established. The US will attempt belated sabotage through the encouraging of local unrest against the building works, but it will not halt the project;
6. Mr. Putin's envoys are at this very moment whispering into the ears of the Argentinian president that of course revanchism works. See how we took back what is ours? You just need guts and weapons. The Falklands are your territory. You deserve to have them. No-one will respect you until you take back what is yours. Here is the price-list for our missiles, fighter planes, warships, and experts.
Prognosis made April 10th 2015
My official prognosis for the Kremlin's maneuvers in the near future (with the aside that Putin is still in power):
1. The next former USSR country to experience hybrid warfare will be Moldova, along the lines of the Transnistria breakaway republic and Gagauz region;
2. An attempt to drive a wedge between NATO and EU allies Bulgaria and Rumania will be along the lines of Moldova's Bulgarian minority (unlike the pro-Rumanian Moldovan majority);
3. An attempt to bribe Bulgarian patriots to help with the dismemberment of the Ukraine and Moldova, along the lines of the Bulgarian minorities in the west the Ukraine, who conveniently border with the "Bulgarian" parts of Moldova and could, through swift action, combine into a sort of second Bulgaria, instead of South Moldova and Western Ukraine;
4. An attempt to bribe the southern losers of the EU to begin drifting away from their memberships in the union, through providing loans and preferential prices for the planned new pipe-line through Turkey and Greece and Serbia and so on; providing constant financing through "loans" to unti-EU parties everywhere, with the view of them orchestrating referendums that slowly destroy the union;
5. The ages old idea of China and Russia combining into a union of an industrious nation and a warrior-caste nation to cancel out the West's collective clout will begin to be tried out experimentally in South America. China commences building the Nicaraguan channel, while Russian warships provide the protection. The long-sought-for solid foothold on this continent is finally established. The US will attempt belated sabotage through the encouraging of local unrest against the building works, but it will not halt the project;
6. Mr. Putin's envoys are at this very moment whispering into the ears of the Argentinian president that of course revanchism works. See how we took back what is ours? You just need guts and weapons. The Falklands are your territory. You deserve to have them. No-one will respect you until you take back what is yours. Here is the price-list for our missiles, fighter planes, warships, and experts.
Prognosis made April 10th 2015
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