Putin's chickens come home to roost

Opty

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Well, looks like Russia is screwed.

With its currency stuck in a disastrous freefall thanks to Western sanctions and plunging oil prices, the country’s central bank announced around 1 a.m. last night that it would jack up its key interest rate from 10.5 percent to 17 percent. This was a desperate decision. The country was already hurtling toward a recession, and the rate hike—the biggest since 1998, when a financial crisis eventually forced it into default on its debt—was sure to make the pain far worse.

....

Today, the currency plunge has continued, with the ruble at one point falling 35 percent, at 80 to a dollar. It has rallied a bit since then. A dollar is now worth about 70 rubles, which only looks good compared to the absolute crisis earlier in the day.

....

But at this point, it’s not clear that Russia has any good options left at its disposal to stop the ruble from tumbling. It could start unloading its own foreign currency reserves to stanch the bleeding, but as Jennifer Rankin of the Guardian argues, those could drain away fast. And such a move wouldn't fix any of the underlying problems that have pushed Russia to the breaking point.

The lesson, kids? It doesn't pay to be a dickhead dictator.

Like, literally. It doesn't pay.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox...putin_has_no_good_solutions.html?wpsrc=fol_fb
 

Xelebes

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The KHL players are feeling the hit. Vladimir Sobotka signed a contract a few months ago valued at $4 million USD, when the ruble was stable. Of course, if you play for a team in Russia, you have to be paid in rubles. He now can now expect to have a take-home at somewhere around 1.6-2.0 million USD a year. That is quite the drop.
 

regdog

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10 rubles Putin still doesn't give a shit.
 

William Haskins

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yuk it up.

he's a steely-eyed bastard looking down the barrel of economic collapse, not the dips we're used to seeing, but full-on depression.

he'll go gangster, if not full-on fascist dictator, and in shockingly short order.
 

Michael Wolfe

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Mark Adomanis argues that western economic sanctions have helped Putin more than hurt him…

The point is simply to note that the West’s policy so far has had precisely the opposite of its intended effect. Rather than weakening Putin and exposing him to expanded criticism, Western sanctions seem to have encouraged Russians to “rally ’round the flag.” This shouldn’t be shocking. People in almost every country tend to act defensively when they perceive themselves as being under threat, and standoffs with foreign governments almost always end up bolstering the powers that be. The West’s very clearly stated desire to “punish” Russia wasn’t very impressive to Russians because they didn’t think that their country needed to be punished.
 

Opty

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Mark Adomanis argues that western economic sanctions have helped Putin more than hurt him…

Perhaps, but that article is from a month ago, based on opinions from quite a while before their economy started to tank.

I wonder, if this economic nose-dive continues, if that cult of personality will continue.
 
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Diana Hignutt

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Mark Adomanis argues that western economic sanctions have helped Putin more than hurt him…

Nationalism only goes so far with a bad economy, and then despotism will have to kick in to pick up the slack...but when the despot can't afford his army, then the clouds will gather and the Bear will have a tempest to deal with.
 

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Perhaps, but that article is from a month ago, based on opinions from quite a while before their economy started to tank.

I wonder, if this economic nose-dive continues, if that cult of personality will continue.
a horrible economy was what put Hitler in power.

age old tactic, and one used all the time in the Middle east, blame another country for your problems. Graft, blame the west, Lack of freedom, blame the west, Secret police and torture squads, blame the West and the US. religious leaders living high on the hog while the faithful starve, Blame the West.

With the USSR it was blame, NATO, the US and the West in general, it was a great ploy and I don't see it being ineffective in the Russia of today either. North Korea is a past master of the art as well.
 

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yuk it up.

he's a steely-eyed bastard looking down the barrel of economic collapse, not the dips we're used to seeing, but full-on depression.

he'll go gangster, if not full-on fascist dictator, and in shockingly short order.
I thought he'd already gone there, not that he can't do worse. But if/when he does, will he survive? Or will the Russians say, "It's the economy, stupid," and find someone new to lead them?
 

Michael Wolfe

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I wonder, if this economic nose-dive continues, if that cult of personality will continue.

Apparently, Russians by and large are putting the blame for their economic woes on the west, not on Putin. I think that's the key here, not whether the economy will get worse (which it probably will).
 

William Haskins

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I thought he'd already gone there, not that he can't do worse. But if/when he does, will he survive? Or will the Russians say, "It's the economy, stupid," and find someone new to lead them?

he's consistently in the 70 and 80 percent range in his approval rating. he's got the backing of the big money and a bedrock of nationalism among the working class.
 

Okelly65

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I thought he'd already gone there, not that he can't do worse. But if/when he does, will he survive? Or will the Russians say, "It's the economy, stupid," and find someone new to lead them?
I started to say, of course they will keep him in power, they have no real experience with or grasp of Representative and elected forms of government and a Part of me feels that its more than likely the Russia people will put up with a lot and parrot the rhetoric. But then I remembered being stationed in Germany, and going on full alert in 1991 as the die hard soviets who hated the west and Glasnost, attempted a coup.

I remember just after Guard mount seeing on CNN Boris Yeltsin climb up onto a T 80 Tank and defy the Soviets and how the Russian People, facing trained soldiers and Armor, backed him to the hilt. So Maybe they will toss Putin out if he goes full Idi Amin. Stranger things have happened in the world.
 

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Putin has a remarkable talent for avoiding all responsibility for Russia's woes and shifting blame to some sort of Western conspiracy.

So far as I can tell, few inside Russia are willing to publicly lay any responsibility for the consequences of Russia's belligerence, folly, and hubris at Putin's feet.

Indeed, Putin appears to be rock solid popular.

Russia may be in a great deal of trouble, but given Putin's history it's no guarantee that he will be.
 

Michael Wolfe

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Putin has a remarkable talent for avoiding all responsibility for Russia's woes and shifting blame to some sort of Western conspiracy.

So far as I can tell, few inside Russia are willing to publicly lay any responsibility for the consequences of Russia's belligerence, folly, and hubris at Putin's feet.

Indeed, Putin appears to be rock solid popular.

Russia may be in a great deal of trouble, but given Putin's history it's no guarantee that he will be.

Exactly.
 

clintl

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If this keeps going on, though, he may not stay popular with the oligarchs, and that would be trouble for him. They are being hammered by this crisis.
 

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I just keep thinking of those moments, just a year ago, where we got images of a strangely grinning Vladimir Putin at the Sochi Winter Olympics. He doesn't seem to be doing much grinning these days.

caw
 

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he's consistently in the 70 and 80 percent range in his approval rating. he's got the backing of the big money and a bedrock of nationalism among the working class.
No doubt. Our pols wish they could have those kinds of ratings, though they'd be satisfied with 51%

But as the big money becomes smaller and smaller money, might that not change things?

Dunno. Just asking. What do you all think?
 

Xelebes

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Putin has a remarkable talent for avoiding all responsibility for Russia's woes and shifting blame to some sort of Western conspiracy.

So far as I can tell, few inside Russia are willing to publicly lay any responsibility for the consequences of Russia's belligerence, folly, and hubris at Putin's feet.

Indeed, Putin appears to be rock solid popular.

Russia may be in a great deal of trouble, but given Putin's history it's no guarantee that he will be.

We also have to remember that Yeltsin's years were a very rough period for Russians and that Putin has given them a very significant reprieve from the hardship and dysphoria that Yeltsin came to represent. Despite all the plummeting commodity prices, it is going to take a decade or two at the very least before the shine on Putin begins to wear off. Putin may very well be dead before the Russians get to that point.

You have to, for a moment at least, realise what Yeltsin's years were like. You have the Moldovan War in 1991-1992 which results in a big don't-know, especially regarding the Transdnistria, the First Chechen War and the heavy losses the Russian forces endured, you have plummeting birth rate, worsening alcoholism and drug rates and a growing tuberculosis problem. Putin, through the help of the Orthodox Church, has helped turn around many of the worst social problems wreaking havoc in Russia during that time.
 
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J.S.F.

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Putin's a wily dude, that's for sure. For now, the people are trusting him--or, in reality, are too afraid to do anything to depose him--to look out for their best interests, which means food and wodka.

While on the surface he's still got a measure of control, he's already stretched himself thin enough on the Ukraine crisis, and while war--a larger scale war or incursion into another country--isn't out of the question, I doubt he'll do it, although stranger things have happened. The army is backing him for now, but they won't, not forever, and they've got their own problems.

As was mentioned before, his hands are in the pockets of the oligarchs, but they won't support him if it means losing their ushankas, so that's something else to consider. He's doing a solid job of blaming the West--as usual--but once the American PR spin machine goes from wash to rinse, Putin may have nowhere else to go but out.
 

Okelly65

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We also have to remember that Yeltsin's years were a very rough period for Russians and that Putin has given them a very significant reprieve from the hardship and dysphoria that Yeltsin came to represent. Despite all the plummeting commodity prices, it is going to take a decade or two at the very least before the shine on Putin begins to wear off. Putin may very well be dead before the Russians get to that point.

You have to, for a moment at least, realise what Yeltsin's years were like. You have the Moldovan War in 1991-1992 which results in a big don't-know, especially regarding the Transdnistria, the First Chechen War and the heavy losses the Russian forces endured, you have plummeting birth rate, worsening alcoholism and drug rates and a growing tuberculosis problem. Putin, through the help of the Orthodox Church, has helped turn around many of the worst social problems wreaking havoc in Russia during that time.
my point was, no one really expected what happened. I remember one briefing where the Intel weenies gave serious consideration to the idea the people of Russia would fall in line with the Soviet hard liners, because they represented a stability that the, then, modern times lacked.
 
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Xelebes

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my point was, no one really expected what happened. I remember one briefing where the Intel weenies gave serious consideration to the idea the people of Russia would fall in line with the Soviet hard liners, because they represented a stability that the, then, modern times lacked.

My post/point didn't really recall your post/point, sorry for the confusion..
 

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We also have to remember that Yeltsin's years were a very rough period for Russians and that Putin has given them a very significant reprieve from the hardship and dysphoria that Yeltsin came to represent. Despite all the plummeting commodity prices, it is going to take a decade or two at the very least before the shine on Putin begins to wear off. Putin may very well be dead before the Russians get to that point.

You have to, for a moment at least, realise what Yeltsin's years were like. You have the Moldovan War in 1991-1992 which results in a big don't-know, especially regarding the Transdnistria, the First Chechen War and the heavy losses the Russian forces endured, you have plummeting birth rate, worsening alcoholism and drug rates and a growing tuberculosis problem. Putin, through the help of the Orthodox Church, has helped turn around many of the worst social problems wreaking havoc in Russia during that time.

Economist Jeffrey Sachs' analysis for the BBC is that, just as with the aftermath of the First World War, ungenerous and petty behavior by the powers of the West has led directly to this situation.

Sachs contrasts the West's actions toward Poland to those towards Russia in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Poland, unstable and in trouble, got huge loans, stabilized currency, and debt relief. Poland, like the nations of Europe after the Second World War, became a relatively healthy democracy and a staunch ally of the West.

Russia, however, was hung out to dry, seemingly out of a Western grudge about the Cold War and, Paul Wolfowitz as much as admitted, so the US could pick over the remnants of the USSR. After the fall of the Berlin Wall the US acted arrogantly, as if it were now the Sole Superpower and would always be on top, so it did not have to care about Russia or the desperation of her people or world peace or anything.

Gorbachev and Yeltsin were treated with disdain and the West ignored all chance of stabilizing the nascent democracy with aid and support. The misery in Russia was very like the aftermath of the First World War, and like the aftermath of the First World War, while a little generosity might have helped democracy fluorish, petty vindictiveness and unconcern led directly to the rise of strongmen and dictators.

So Gorbachev and Yeltsin, those two great reformers, fell and Putin swept in to power, where he has remained firmly emplaced in the decades since.

The Second World War demonstrated that with compassion and generosity the US can make friends with even the most hated enemies.

It's a pity that lesson was ignored when it came to Russia.
 
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robeiae

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Meh. Russia wasn't--and still isn't--Poland. And Sachs' reminiscing looks self-serving to me. After all, the first Bush signed the the Freedom for Russia and Emerging Eurasian Democracies and Open Markets Act in '92.

That Act help fund the presence of several Harvard economists in Russia, supposedly to help with the transition. Sachs, in fact, helped install Andrei Shleifer and Jonathan Hay, who guided the HIID in Russia until it all fell apart because Schleifer and Hay became--apparently--more interested in their personal finances than the state of Russia's economy.

Aid was given to Russia, but from the beginning, hardliners remained in power all across the nation. There was always pushback and massive corruption.

In short, no lessons were ignored when it came to Russia. Rather, new ones were learned.
 
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Michael Wolfe

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He's doing a solid job of blaming the West--as usual--but once the American PR spin machine goes from wash to rinse, Putin may have nowhere else to go but out.

I have no doubt that American PR will force Putin out of power sooner or later. :rolleyes:

But speaking seriously, I just think it's amusing how much influence Americans think the US has over Russia.

There were people who honestly thought Obama could make Putin give back Crimea by imposing sanctions.

I'm hardly a fan of the guy, but you hardly need to be to understand that Putin isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
 

J.S.F.

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I have no doubt that American PR will force Putin out of power sooner or later. :rolleyes:

But speaking seriously, I just think it's amusing how much influence Americans think the US has over Russia.

There were people who honestly thought Obama could make Putin give back Crimea by imposing sanctions.

I'm hardly a fan of the guy, but you hardly need to be to understand that Putin isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
---

I was being facetious when I said that about the American PR machine...should have made that a little clearer. Next time I'll use a smily face or sumpin'.

However, talking about the American gov't, they haven't held sway over any country for a good long time. Unfortunately, some of the powers that be actually think that they can. Maybe some of the general populace believes that as well. I don't know for sure.

Not to dump on Obama, but he's really dropped the ball on foreign affairs. His "red line" in Syria really should have a meme named after it. He hasn't done much better vis-a-vis the Russians. (To be fair, though, past presidents haven't really done jack shit, either). And I doubt Putin will be leaving power unless something really radial occurs over there.