How many novelists succeed?

Probably need to better define it. "success" is really an individual determination. You've also got to define "group."

Try it this way, how many would make you happy? How big a "group." Not being facetious, just defining the question.

How many people have to buy the Book 1 before you would feel comfortable calling it a success? 5, 50, 100, 1000, 5000?

ETA: Back in 2007 Tess Gerritson pointed out that 5,000 copies in a week would get you on the NYT Best Sellers list.

Or would it be better to ask how many bought book 1, and how many of those folks bought book 2? (See what that does to the question?)

Now, let's go with the 1000 mark. Even if NONE of them were paying, but all of those same 1000 folks who read book 1 came back and read book 2? And let's say they told enough folks that the number was up to 1250. Do you feel that, as a writer, you are a success? Why? Why not?

Like I said up top, it's an individual determination. If only because the only yard stick worth measuring yourself against is the one in your head.

Good luck.

ETA: Welcome to the 'Cooler by the way. I hope to see some of your work in SYW some time.

Also, this thread may get moved to AW Roundtable. That would be the individual room mods call. Don't sweat it if it does.

It burns us with the math, precious.....

CrastersBabies said:

It burns us with the math, precious.....

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Gloves are in the corner. Sunglasses on the desk.

Yeah, this is a completely subjective question. Not only do you have the issue of what defines success, but you also have the issue of who qualifies as a novelist.

A lot of people have written novels. Most of these novels are so bad they would never get published traditionally. If they're self-published, they won't go past the point where they get a few awful reviews before sales dry up completely.

You have to take out the novelists who simply don't write well enough to be successful.

Eeek! Someone wants the author to do math! *hides*

*peeks*

I think the others have said it well. You have to define success. I'd say a novelist is one who's published a novel through a press (let's take self-pubbing out of the equation for a moment). I.e., you get royalty statements from someone other than yourself or Smashwords (or Createspace or whatever, you get the idea.)

And please note: I'm not slamming on self-pub. One of mine was... sort of self-pubbed. There are some lovely self-pubbed authors! I'm just taking them out of the equation for the moment.

I have a group of people that I *know* are looking forward to my next book. They aren't many, but I'm happy with that. I know that i have a LOT more people that buy than the vocal few that I see and talk to. That number will (hopefully) grow as I expand into other parts of the fictional world, but it's not *bad*. (I also do not have exact numbers, mind you.)

My goal is to be able to make a living as an author. I'm still a good ways away from that. But eventually, I'd like to see enough on the royalty statements to pay the bills. That, for me, would qualify as success.

But do you see what I did there? I defined it for myself. I think you'll have to figure out what you *want* then that will help you figure out if you're successful.

jacefancy said:

Perfect definition of success. Congratulations BTW.

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Thank you very much! I'm happy and excited (or, well, I will be when I turn in the galley. LOL)!

Literary agents generally estimate that as much as 99% of their slushpile is not publishable, and just because something is publishable doesn't mean it's going to be a hit with the public. So the number you're looking for is probably somewhat less than 1%.

But you know what? It's not a lottery. If you write great books, the chances of you getting published and finding success are quite good. If you write crappy books, your chances are quite slim.

Forget about the statistics of how many people try and fail. Are you talented and hard-working enough to succeed?

http://www.deanwesleysmith.com/?p=1121 here is some playing with numbers.

[QUOTE/] Say a writer does a small genre book. Books sells nicely at 20,000 copies in paperback actually sold. Writer got a $8,000 advance for the book. $6 book at 6% is .36 cents per book. Income is $7,200 so writer gets no more money than the advance, but publisher is happy and writer sells another book to them, or two or three.
So writer can do four books a year and makes $32,000 on just the advances from those books. (Now, remember that magic bakery?) Maybe not the second year at this pace, or the third, but at some point the author will have built up enough inventory that more things are popping. At four years, the author will have 16 novels finished. Overseas sales happen on a couple of them, audio sales happen every year on a couple of others, maybe a small option on one of them from Hollywood, rights reverted on two and the books are now selling on Kindle and other income sources directly to the writers.

Three of them. That guy who writes the gory books set in Maine, that English chick who wrote about the kid with the scar on his head, and that other one who wrote the filthy book with the tampon scene.

Let's give a few tiers of success:
1. Is legitimately published (as in 'non-vanity/scam') and this is a fine hobby. Gives balance to life.
2. Provides additional income, free money appears for restaurants and movie tickets.
3. The income is equivalent to a Wall Mart job (Dean Koontz circa 1970)
4. The income is equivalent to white collar office plankton job (Dean Koontz circa 1980)
5. The income allows for increasing elements of luxury (Dean Koontz circa 1990)

Also, recognition.
A) One may make pretty little money with sales, but be a 'cult author' for a few thousand people scattered all over the globe (Edward Lee, Thomas Ligotti).
B) One may make the equivalent of a low-mid-paying job, but be the most awarded and critically respected author of one's generation (Ramsey Campbell, Philip K Dick, Clifford Simak)

I would say that:
1. is possible for any reasonably literate adult or teen, willing to invest the equivalent of a 1000 hours of self-education and constant reading and writing.
2. is for the 10% who do not remain on the level of 1.
And so on. Until we reach the miniscule percentage that combines the people with most raw talent, the people with the strongest focus and self-discipline, and the people with the most luck. To them writing brings elements of luxury and a certain freedom from financial worries.

It totally depends. I mean, I guess the OP is probably asking about fame and fortune. I'll consider myself a success when I get a positive review from someone I don't know and have never had any previous contact with, telling me or implying that they laughed, cried, cheered, or were otherwise emotionally involved with my characters.

It depends on what your goals are. If you want to become rich and never have to work your non-writing job again, the chances are probably a lot slimmer than my "touch one person" goal... but I think touching one person is a much bigger accomplishment. That will totally depend on the person, though.

And see, in my definition, self-pubs could totally count, even though a lot of people think that traditionally published is key. It completely depends.

A percentage of what?

Until you define what you mean by 'succeed' there is no answer to your question.

Saying it's 'maybe this or that' is far too vague.

Even then, it's impossible to answer unless you narrow down exactly what group you are talking about. Even then it's still a total stab in the dark.

Think of a tiny number, then give it three decimal points - that should be cold enough.

jacefancy said:

A cold approximation is what I'm after. A percentage.

Mild success is the cut-off; maybe it's not even enough to pay all the bills, but there's a group of consumers out there who enjoy your work.

20%? 10? .1?

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42

Can't give you a percentage, but can opine that any author whose book has made it into the retail shops has achieved success.

For me, right now, "success" would be to land an agent.

jjdebenedictis said:

Literary agents generally estimate that as much as 99% of their slushpile is not publishable, and just because something is publishable doesn't mean it's going to be a hit with the public. So the number you're looking for is probably somewhat less than 1%.

But you know what? It's not a lottery. If you write great books, the chances of you getting published and finding success are quite good. If you write crappy books, your chances are quite slim.

Forget about the statistics of how many people try and fail. Are you talented and hard-working enough to succeed?

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This.

you can say "all things being equal, one in a thousand or less" but all things AREN'T equal.


probably well under 1% of people who submitted a book at some point get published....but that may be closer to 1 in 4 very good writers, and three of four excellent writers......

How many novelists succeed?

Every single one who reaches his/her personal goals related to his/her writing.

Next question?

NeuroFizz said:

How many novelists succeed?

Every single one who reaches his/her personal goals related to his/her writing.

Next question?

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*applauds*

Enough for publishers to continue to consider buying books a good and profitable business model.

A lot less than those who don't succeed.

Not giving up increases your chances I hear.

Those are very amorphous terms, as others have said.

What's a novelist? Someone who wants to write a novel? Someone who has written a novel, no matter its quality? Someone who has in some form published a novel?

What is success? Publication by the big six publishers? Selling x copies, whether traditionally or through self publication?

You learn really quickly that there's no such thing as hard numbers in publishing. But here's a hint: most stuff people write is utter shite (sorry to be blunt), and only a tiny number of those who complete a novel will get it published. "Publishable" is no guarantee of publication, either. Just ask me. I have two publishable novels under my belt that aren't getting much attention from agents.

angeliz2k said:

What's a novelist? Someone who wants to write a novel? Someone who has written a novel, no matter its quality? Someone who has in some form published a novel?

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Yeah, it really matters what pool we're calculating a percentage from. If it's the number of people who "want to write a novel," then the percentage is staggeringly low; most of them never start writing. Many of the ones who start won't actually finish, or they'll finish but be overwhelmed by revisions and trunk the novel. A lot of them never bother to refine their writing craft in the first place.

Many of those who revise won't bother to get good beta readers and outside, unbiased opinions before submitting. Or they'll let their egos get in the way of accepting good critique. Many of those who write and revise a publishable book won't bother to educate themselves about how to write a proper query letter and query agents. Some of those who get an agent won't learn the business or will implode somewhere online with the Author's Big Mistake.

So if you're asking what percentage of people who want to write a novel make it--almost none of them because it's a huge pool full of people who sabotage themselves through procrastination or lack of education.

If you're talking about the very last group of people who did all their homework, buckled down and wrote, refined their craft, revised, revised, revised, properly secured an agent and stayed on top of their industry? The percentage is probably decent.

But they're two distinct groups. The second has a much better chance. First, you need to decide which kind of writer you want to be. Second, you need to go be that writer instead of milling around worrying about what your chances are.

There are many things you can do, right now, to stack the deck in your favor. Worrying about statistics isn't one of them.

For what it's worth, I hope you make it!