I think Hamilton will be good this year, but not great. I think he may well win a race, but probably later in the year at one that includes a lot of rain. The real test will be against his team mate. If he beats him, then Hamilton is doing good. If he doesn't, then he isn't as good as he thinks he is. But, I think he is good, so I'll be surprised if he doesn't beat Rosberg, and make it into the top ten often, perhaps a podium by the forth race.
Although, saying all that, he crashed his car in the first test within twenty minutes.