Oscar Nominations

I've seen everything on the best picture list except 127 Hours and The King's Speech. I also need to see Rabbit Hole, Biutiful and Blue Valentine. I'm definitely seeing King and Valentine this weekend.

Not too many surprises, though. Interesting that Julianne Moore didn't make the cut.

The only one I saw was Inception; I'm getting around to seeing more I liked it very much, but I don't know if it's oscar material, myself.

I don't think Inception will win. I think it's between King's Speech and Social Network. Let's see which wins the SAG Award -- usually the bellwether of the Oscar win.

Also, look at this list:

Best Editing:
"Black Swan"(Fox Searchlight), Andrew Weisblum
"The Fighter"(Paramount), Pamela Martin
"The King’s Speech"(The Weinstein Company), Tariq Anwar
"127 Hours"(Fox Searchlight), Jon Harris
"The Social Network" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter


No movie wins Best Picture without winning Best Editing, so basically THESE are the real contenders of Best Picture.

I've seen everything except True Grit and Winter's Bone. Given neither is nominated for Best Editing, I think their best bet is in the acting category.

Colin Firth will win the Oscar. It's his year (he was nominated last year for A Single Man, also a brilliant performance, but lost to Jeff Bridges. It's funny they're duking it out this year again, but this year belongs to Firth).

I predict Natalie Portman will win for Black Swan also. It's just a brilliant film with a great performance, plus it's unusual. Bening is great, too -- so is Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole, which deserves a writing nod. But Portman has a Ballerina's leg up on Bening and Kidman.


Black Swan, The Fighter, 127 Hours, King's Speech and Social Network all have nominations in multiple big categories. So this is a good year to watch the Oscars. The suspense!

maestrowork said:

No movie wins Best Picture without winning Best Editing, so basically THESE are the real contenders of Best Picture.

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In 2007, Best Editing went to The Bourne Ultimatum, not No Country for Old Men. In the 2000s, four out of the ten Best Picture winners did not pick up Best Editing.

I disagree 127 Hours is a true top five contender. I don't know what I'd replace it with on the rest of the list, though. Maybe True Grit or even Toy Story 3. That being said, I think the actual race is between The Social Network and King's Speech.

King's Speech has the most nominations, but I still think The Social Network is going to take the big prize.

Rarely do I hope someone doesn't win (as opposed to rooting for someone), but I don't think Natalie Portman should win.

aruna said:

Here's the Best Picture nominations list:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Winter's Bone
True Grit
The Social Network
Toy Story 3

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I've seen Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The Social Network and Toy Story 3. Haven't seen 127 Hours, Black Swan or The King's Speech yet (will do so in the next two weeks). The Fighter and True Grit haven't opened in the UK yet. Winter's Bone I've heard great things about - it's out on DVD on 31 January.

I reckon The Social Network will win Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay, Toy Story 3 Best Animated, with Colin Firth as Best Actor. We'll see if I'm right.

eyeblink said:

I reckon The Social Network will win Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay, Toy Story 3 Best Animated, with Colin Firth as Best Actor. We'll see if I'm right.

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I think you're four for four.

Don't underestimate True Grit. I've seen The Social Network, The King's Speech, Inception, The Fighter, and Toy Story 3 out of that list. Even though the buzz right now is between Social Network and King's Speech. I'd place True Grit as a dark horse contender because it was a better movie than Social Network and on par with King's Speech. Plus the 14 year old girl in True Grit is simply amazing. Hailee Steinfeld...I think that's her name. She should walk away with Best Supporting Actress. Unlikely...but I hope so.

maestrowork said:

I predict Natalie Portman will win . . .

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I think that one is almost a given.

It's her time.

alleycat said:

I think that one is almost a given.

It's her time.

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Although the Academy may go for sentimental and give it to Bening, who's never won (plus Ms. Bening is married to Warren Beaty, so there's a big incentive there). She lost to Hilary Swank twice, and it would be another blow to lose to another young actress... plus the Academy may think Portman's still young (only 29) and has plenty of chances, or deduct a point or two for her current dud, No Strings Attached.

That said, Portman has won almost every award, and if she wins the SAG Award, it's in the bag for her. If the SAG goes to someone else, then it's a race to watch!

Seen all the BP nominees except 127 Hours, but...

The race is pretty much set. Social Network will win BP, Fincher Best Director. Firth will win Best Actor, Portman Best Actress, Leo or Steinfeld (probably Leo) Best Supporting Actress, Bale Best Supporting Actor. Inception MAY win Original Screenplay, Sorkin is a lock for Adapted.

Leo or Steinfeld (probably Leo) Best Supporting Actress

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Leo. Although I'm impressed Steinfeld made the nominations, so that bodes well for her.

I've only seen Toy Story 3 and Inception of the 10 nominated. Both were Christmas gifts!

I think Inception was snubbed out of Best Editing and Director, but I'm pulling for it for Original Score.

Yeah, the Editing snub is crazy. Director I can see, since Russell probably edged Nolan out (biographical drama vs. sci-fi action), but Lee Smith not getting a nod (and did the guild snub him too?) is nuts.

katiemac said:

I disagree 127 Hours is a true top five contender.

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I absolutely loved it. It was one of the best movies I have seen in years. I was very impressed that they could do so much with the story, which was essentially one guy under a rock for an hour and a half, and make it so fast paced and emotionally engaging. Unfortunately, not enough people saw it because of the content. But James Franco is amazing, and so is Danny Boyle.

charlotte820 said:

I think Inception was snubbed out of Best Editing and Director, but I'm pulling for it for Original Score.

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I agree. I couldn't believe that didn't get the best director nomination.

charlotte820 said:

I think Inception was snubbed out of Best Editing and Director, but I'm pulling for it for Original Score.

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Celia Cyanide said:

I agree. I couldn't believe that didn't get the best director nomination.

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One explanation I read for the snub of Nolan for Best Director was, "Well, he wasn't nominated for The Dark Knight either, and that was a better movie than Inception."

Christopher Nolan may be the new Steven Spielberg when it comes to making quality pictures that audiences love and the Academy Awards ignore.

I want to see Black Swan, 127 Hours and The Social Network before the Oscars are handed out. For the first time in a long while, I feel the need to catch up with some of the nominated films in a way I did not with The Blind Side and Up In the Air. I think this is a pretty strong crop of contenders (and some say The Town should have made the top ten).

Colin Firth seems like a lock to take Best Actor for The King's Speech because he lost to Jeff Bridges last year and even though I really like True Grit, I'd rather see Hailee Steinfeld win. It's her story and she kicks major butt in the role of Mattie Ross. I'm not so sure if great performances make The King's Speech a great movie and there are the beginnings of a backlash against it for some historical inaccuracies.

Inception is one of the few films of 2010 that may be considered a classic years from now, but it's too dense, too convoluted and too deep for older Oscar voters and The Social Network probably too hip. That might be the saving grace for The King's Speech for the Academy. They have a history of rewarding English made period pieces so lightning may strike yet again.

aruna said:

I wasn't all that taken with her performance. .

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I agree. I've told other people that I believe the material elevated her, but I don't think she did anything to elevate the material. But I'm also not nearly as taken with Black Swan as others are.

I absolutely loved it. It was one of the best movies I have seen in years. I was very impressed that they could do so much with the story, which was essentially one guy under a rock for an hour and a half, and make it so fast paced and emotionally engaging. Unfortunately, not enough people saw it because of the content. But James Franco is amazing, and so is Danny Boyle.

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I'm probably not being fair to it, since it's still one of the two Best Pic nominated films I have yet to see. I only meant that, based on some chatter, it doesn't seem like it would have made the cut if the category were still five best pictures. It most certainly should be in a list of ten, though.

I just saw True Grit and really liked it -- it's one of the most accessible movies from the Coen brothers. Steinfeld deserves that nomination, although I don't think she'd win over Leo. Bridges is good but he already won last year for another grungy character, so I think Firth has a lock.

maestrowork said:

I just saw True Grit and really liked it -- it's one of the most accessible movies from the Coen brothers. Steinfeld deserves that nomination, although I don't think she'd win over Leo.

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ok....every single time I see that in this thread, I think of INCEPTION and get a little confused.

katiemac said:

I agree. I've told other people that I believe the material elevated her, but I don't think she did anything to elevate the material. But I'm also not nearly as taken with Black Swan as others are.

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But you can say that about a lot of actors. Did Nicole Kidman elevate the material or did the material elevate her in The Hours? How about Halle Barry in Monster's Ball? Or Hilary Swank in Boys Don't Cry. Or Steinfeld in True Grit -- the character is so strong you wonder if she'd have fared worse if it was a weaker character.

Whether it's the strongest performance this year is subjective -- that's why we vote, instead of having a panel of judges. To me, though, having seen almost every Natalie Portman's movie, I was blown away by this performance. I definitely think she's at least elevated herself, if not above the material.

Jennifer Lawrence was brilliant in Winter's Bone. She won't win though.