First, Johnson got "primaried" only because of the debacle of the Vietnam War after 1966. His first two years passed without significant opposition within his own Party. So any analogy to Johnson's Presidency is at best premature.
Second, Obama's approval rating remains higher than either Reagan's or Clinton's at a comparable point of their Presidencies.
Third, the overall voting populace blames Dem "leadership" (note the quotations) in both the Senate and Congress far more than they blame Obama for whatever angst they are having.
Fourth, the economy may not be to everyone's liking, especially the unemployment numbers, but it is unquestionably better today than it was when Obama took the oath of office. He still has the best part of two years to benefit or be dragged down by economic forces. We'll see about that, but it's those two years that will resonate with the public, not the first two. Bill Clinton was definitive proof of that. Justified or not, Presidents either benefit or are damaged by economic winds not under their control. Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan are definitive proof of that.
Fifth, the Democrats currently have no one of sufficient stature to challenge Obama. Hillary Clinton is part of his team, and her time of Presidential consideration seems to me to have passed (some may disagree, I'll acknowledge). When things began to cave in on Lyndon Johnson, he faced opposition from serious well-regarded U.S. Senators within his own Party, first Eugene McCarthy and shortly after, Robert Kennedy. Obama would face exactly who, as a potential candidate from within the U.S. Senate, or as a sitting or former state governor, from within the Democratic Party? Nobody has McCarthy or RFK stature, nobody even within a whiff of that. Barring some as yet unforeseen political calamity for him, I don't see Obama receiving any significant primary challenge in 2012 (which, let's remember, is politically only twelve months away).
Sixth, regards re-election, Republicans are in the same boat as Democrats: No truly exciting candidate above the horizon yet. Romney would probably be the Vegas odds-makers pick right now, but the religious right that controls so much of the Republican voter block hates him almost as much as it hates Obama, for his religious faith and for some of the things like health care reform that he enacted as Governor of Massachusetts. Palin has built such a high negative profile that even major conservative pols and commentators are openly opining that she shouldn't run; she will, because she's a diva all about attention-grabbing, and she'll sink like the Edmund Fitzgerald in the primaries. Huckabee is the most affable, publicly agreeable person the Republicans have, and he has some skills: he can be funny and even sound reasonable when espousing truly unreasonable positions. If he could win the nomination, he might be a formidable opponent for Obama, being the only person who could hold his own in rhetoric and on stage. But his background as an evangelical preacher is a millstone; a lot of the quiet, traditional Republican business base distrusts him badly. Outsiders? Yeah, maybe, but who? Obama made a mark at the Democratic National Convention in 2004, and got an instant surge of support when he announced his candidacy before the Iowa caucuses at the beginning of 2008. Some unknown Republican is going to have to make a mark within the next year to become a significant candidate.
Seventh, the Republican resurgence of 2010, like the similar resurgence in 1994 with Clinton in the White House, may have been the best possible outcome for an Obama 2012 re-election campaign. Depends on what they actually do in the Senate and House. But if I were to bet who will come off looking better for the whole U.S. electorate over the next two years, Barack Obama or John Boehner, I'd bet on the guy whose complexion is darker because of genetics and not tanning beds.
By the way, this is a great poll, with choices well and thoughtfully expressed, and therefore meaningful. I don't much respond to polls here, because so many are just plain frivolous, or designed like push-polls to produce a certain result. My compliments to Haskins, and also my enthusiastic public welcome for his return from hiatus.
So I voted that Obama will not be challenged (seriously) for 2012 nomination within his own Party, and that he will be re-elected. Which makes me curious: How did you vote, William?
