Hurdle by hurdle... do the odds shift in your favour?

Scribly, odds are, if you write a damn good book and a stellar query, with timing and luck on your side, and a lot of perseverance you will get published.

Other than that, I don't know that there are any odds.



I know terrific authors who landed terrific agents and didn't sell. I also know a few who finished a 1st ms and sold in the first round of queries.

Well, odds and risks are not real entities, and can lead to a lot of stray thoughts. I think the determining factor is the quality of your writing. If you have a top-notch book, the odds of getting a good agent are surely better than 1 in 1,000. More like 1 in 50, I'd say, since timing, overstocked/overworked offices, and mismatches of genre or style creep in. Probably 1/3 of submissions never get looked at, and you can add other factors as desired.

Given that it's a Reputable Agent, they shouldn't be taking on books if they don't think they can sell them. So I'd say better than 1 in 10 odds that a Reputable Agent after accepting a book, will find a Reputable Publisher for it. I don't know that the odds have "telescoped", and it's a bit misleading to think in terms of hurdles, but as a discussion it's okay. It's unnecessarily negative to think of an industry where people actively try to exclude you ... most of the "hurdle" talk comes from people with average work who are quick to feel blocked.

I haven't got my trusty caluculator today so I will skip the odds question...welcome.

It's kind of a self-defeating way of looking at it, but here's my take: If you have the capacity to get better and you're willing to keep at it until you've written at least a million words of fiction, then the odds approach a hundred percent.

Of the writers who don't make it, I'd divide them up this way: 95% because they didn't work hard enough and 5% because they lacked the capacity to get better.

The thing is, you can't know if you lack the capacity to get better unless you put in all those of years of working at the craft. That's the leap of faith. Most people don't work hard enough or give up far too soon. Every now and then I run into somebody who *has* writen a couple million words and it's obvious they're just not getting better (or at a very, very slow pace), and those are the saddest folks. But that's a minority. Far more common are the people who think it should be easy, or that because their manuscripts are rejected it's because of "the odds." It's not the odds. It's because they're not ready.

Welcome to AW, Scribly!

Numbers fail.

You got an agent? You are nearly there!

GOOD LUCK!!!!!

welcome

Just have faith! You'll get published!

Madisonwrites said:

Just have faith! You'll get published!

Click to expand...

Ditto on that! And welcome to the boards!

I think professional agents do much, much better than selling one manuscript in ten.

Hi there, Scribly, and welcome to AW. As to odds, I don't think you can think this way when writing is concerned. It's a tough world out there, and most important is the qualituy of your writing. But even then, good qualtiy is not equal to finding a publisher. The main thing to a publisher is 'will it sell'? Your book may be great, but of a genre that is not popular, hence they won't publsih.

Nickie

the odds are 50/50. you get published or you dont. 50/50. same as everything. the lottery; you either win or you dont. 50/50

now stop worrying over unlaid eggs and do some writing.

Scribly I'll say greetings and welcome to the watercooler. I'll also add that our main rule here is to be respectfull of other members. Remember that and you'll do fine. Before doing anything else here, I'd advise you to go read the newbie guide, which is in a sticky thread at the top of the Newbie Forum.