Huckabee Overtakes Romney in Iowa: Rasmussen

[William Haskins]

and the battle of the weirdos gets weirder...


Iowa: Huckabee 28% Romney 25%
Wednesday, November 28, 2007

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Iowa caucus finds former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee with 28% of the vote, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 25% support, and everyone else far behind. National frontrunner Rudy Giuliani gets just 12% of the vote in Iowa at this time while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson is the only other candidate in double digits at 11%

Given the margin of error, the challenges of determining the relatively small number of people who will participate in a caucus, and other factors, the race is far too close to call at this point in time. However, the fact that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner in Iowa reflects a stunning change in the race.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3766462

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/06/09/walmart/image/huckabee.jpg

[nerds]

cheeses steak rice.

His son's a lunatic. Highly dysfunctional family, none of whom I'd want hangin' out in the Oval Office. Oy. Oy.

[Perks]

Not to worry. There will never be a President Humperdinck. Or Lipschitz. Or Huckabee.

All's well.

[blacbird]

What this is a sign of is that the Christian Right isn't going to give up its vampire neck-bite on the Republican Party without a big fight. Also that Pat Robertson, who has endorsed Giuliani, doesn't carry the clout with them that he did a couple of elections ago.

caw

[William Haskins]

rudy's polling strong in michigan, nevada and in florida... he's also in a statistical dead-heat in south carolina.

romney and/or huckabee can perhaps gain some momentum in iowa and new hampshire, but only because they're going all out in those states. there's no evidence that they could sustain any heat from that point on.

[whistlelock]

Huckabee is really pushing his downhomeiness in Iowa. I've got some family that lives there, and it really annoys them.

but they're die hard democrats. so.

[blacbird]

It's important to remember that Iowa is a caucus state, not a primary state. I don't know who the polls are measuring, but the population that attends the caucuses, for hours on end, are largely enthusiastic political junkies, not your average moderately lazy voter going to or from work. That's why a candidate's organization is so important there; you have to get volunteers to attend these caucuses, a different kind of effort from a "get out the vote" campaign.

caw

[jst5150]

Mitt Romney is like a Star Wars Droid with better hair.

"The Mitt Romney android agrees with you. [BZZT] The Mitt Romney Android is pro-choice. [CLICK] The Mitt Romney Android is Pro-Life. [CLICK] The Mitt Romney Android believes in a fair amount of tariffs. [CLICK] The Mitt Romney Android believes in free trade. [CLICK] The Mitt Romney Android's Hair Assemblage needs an oil bath."

[karo.ambrose]

Could someone explain to me the difference between a caucus and a primary?

[blacbird]

A primary is a simple electoral voting procedure: you go to the polls and cast your vote, as you would in any other election.

A caucus is a hierarchical set of meetings, in which groups supporting each particular candidate meet at a precinct level, and are allocated delegates according to their relative strengths at the meeting. Specific rules vary from state to state, but usually there's a minimum threshold, and if your candidate doesn't meet that, he/she/it is dropped from contention. These delegates then move to a second round at, say, the county level, in which arguments for each candidate are presented, and a further vote of delegates is taken, eventually whittling down the field further. Ultimately through this process, state and national delegates are selected, and those national delegates go to the convention in the summer to cast their votes for nominees.

caw

[rugcat]

Wonk.

[billythrilly7th]

Watching the debate.

Huckabee is funny. I like this guy.

Romney really is having a bad night. He's too careful with his words.

Giuliani rocks.

McCain rocks too.

[blacbird]

Wonk.

I went to grad school in Iowa back in the 1970s, and participated in one caucus (1976). My favored candidate (Udall) did not win. But it was an enlightening experience. One of the realizations I made is that I never wanted to do it again.

caw