Gaffer's Official Election Returns Thread

[billythrilly7th]

When will results be available, sir?

Are you calling any of the close races right now based on your data?

[billythrilly7th]

Apparently, you're asleep at the wheel...

Here's some info to add to the crunch...

Why are democrats afraid of the rain?

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=2635683&page=1

Although most experts predict heavy voter turnout in today's midterm elections, some of the most hotly contested races in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and New Jersey could be affected by bad weather. And some experts say that, based on history, Republicans should pray for rain.

Brad Gomez, an assistant professor at the University of Georgia, examined weather data and its impact on elections in a study titled "The Effect of Bad Weather on Voter Turnout and Partisan Vote Share in U.S. Presidential Elections, 1948-2000."

Gomez concluded that when it rains, it pours at the polls for Democrats. Gomez found that "rain significantly reduces voter participation at the polls by a rate just under 1 percent per inch," and that every inch of rain cuts the Democratic vote by 2.5 percentage points.

Oh boy..

Here's a rundown of the weather forecast for some of today's most-heated races:

In Montana, where Democratic candidate Jon Tester is locked in a tight race with incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns, heavy rain is expected throughout most of the state.

In Ohio, the bellwether of recent elections, rain is expected in Cincinnati, Toledo and Cleveland, with more severe showers in the more rural southeastern part of the state.

In Pennsylvania, where Democrat Bob Casey is trying to unseat Republican incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum, showers are expected throughout the state this afternoon.

And in New Jersey, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Robert Menendez is battling with Republican state Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr., showers are predicted throughout the state this afternoon.

[dclary]

Why does rain hate democracy?

[billythrilly7th]

Why does rain hate democracy?

If the democrats win, rain loses.

At least according the the global warming brigade.

If you're pro-Hurricane, vote Republican.

Thank you.

[dclary]

"I'm Hurricane Katrina, and I approve this message."

[billythrilly7th]

:ROFL:

[robeiae]

It's not funny.

[billythrilly7th]

I'm calling the Indiana Senator election for Sen. Richard Lugar(R)

Congratulations, sir.

[billythrilly7th]

Apparently, Gaffer is out to lunch.

Lock thread.

[billythrilly7th]

Where is everybody?!!

Biggest day of the year and the whole gang has gone A.W.O.L.

Jeez.

Fine.

Thrilly Out.

[robeiae]

They're all out still trying to vote--the machines keep breaking.

[dclary]

It's not that hard. You just push the thing, and then the other thing, and you make sure that other doohickey's just like that, except when you want to vote for the other guy then it has to be like this other way, with the lever on the right up 3/4 of a way.

Come on, people! It's not rocket surgery here!

[dclary]

Marriage = Man + Woman ONLY winning in Virginia.

Well done, Virginians.

[billythrilly7th]

David,
Is it too soon to complain about the job performance of the democrat controlled Congress?

I haven't been on the attack in six years. I'm chomping at the bit.

All anyone has seen is the defensive posture of one William H. Thrilly and his ability to vanquish all comers. Wait until the attack dog is released. It's something to behold.

:D

[dclary]

I've got several hot-keyed rants ready about how democrats haven't done anything about our borders, medical care, the economy, why aren't we out of Iraq yet, and "Let's Impeach Someone!"

[billythrilly7th]

lol..god help them if there's even the slightest uptick in the unemployment rate, gas prices or so much as a fire cracker goes off in a NYC subway.

[billythrilly7th]

Uh oh...

From CNN....
Back on Capitol Hill, Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to take the House, and a net gain of six seats to take the Senate. But even with the wind at their backs -- especially in the House -- one senior Democratic aide warned, "Don't underestimate our ability to blow it."


:e2thud: ???

Gaffer, where the hell are you? It's not a no hitter. You can say something.

[billythrilly7th]

I'm calling it....

The Democrats have taken back the House.

They will be +7 at the end of the night.

Congratulations.

[aghast]

now let the real work begins, no more champagne and caviars and cigars and secret handshake with special interest groups - yeah right....

[Opty]

I'm incredibly disappointed in, though not surprised by, the voters of TN.

[Bravo]

did they already announce TN somewhere?

[eldragon]

Thank God. I might renew my faith in humanity.

Or, I might not.

[Opty]

did they already announce TN somewhere?

No, but Corker is leading by 5% right now, with 54% of the results in. Granted, depending on what part of the state the rest of the votes come from, the tide could change in Ford's favor, but I seriously doubt it.

Corker ran a dirty, dishonest, sleazy campaign and scared enough old white Christians in the last month to put him over Ford. People here in Chattanooga also decided to totally overlook the fact that Corker was a really crappy mayor.

The amendment to ban gay marriage also passed with an 80+% majority.


One day, hopefully, TN will finally make it out of the Reconstruction Era.

[billythrilly7th]

Thank God. I might renew my faith in humanity.

Or, I might not.

lol...yeah, I'd say that anyone who renews or loses their faith in humanity based on one political party winning over another is headed for a long much of the time faithless life.

I base my faith in humanity in the smile of a child, the pat on the back from a senior citizen after I help them carry their groceries home, the smell of warm honey emanating from a backyard garden in April. And many more.

Thank you.
:)

[billythrilly7th]

I'm waiting to hear results on my one major issue of this election.

Will they ban Flouride from Boulder water leaving us to live our lives with the teeth of exhumed corpses and Shane McGowan?

Please, clear thinking people of Boulder.

I hope you voted "no" on 2B.

[dclary]

You grow honey in a garden?

[zarch]

"I'm Hurricane Katrina, and I approve this message."

LOL!

[billythrilly7th]

You grow honey in a garden?

I don't know where honey comes from, but I often smell it. And it gives me faith in humanity to know that people like honey.

Thank you.

[aghast]

l
I base my faith in humanity in the smile of a child, the pat on the back from a senior citizen after I help them carry their groceries home, the smell of warm honey emanating from a backyard garden in April. And many more.

but would you pay the old persons medication because she sure cant or would you help the child because he sure was screwed out of the leave no child behind propaganda

[billythrilly7th]

I disagree with both of your blanket contentions and/or assertions.

Thank you.

[billythrilly7th]

Oh god, they're talking about recounts.

:head slap emoticon:

[Southern_girl29]

No, but Corker is leading by 5% right now, with 54% of the results in. Granted, depending on what part of the state the rest of the votes come from, the tide could change in Ford's favor, but I seriously doubt it.

Corker ran a dirty, dishonest, sleazy campaign and scared enough old white Christians in the last month to put him over Ford. People here in Chattanooga also decided to totally overlook the fact that Corker was a really crappy mayor.

The amendment to ban gay marriage also passed with an 80+% majority.


One day, hopefully, TN will finally make it out of the Reconstruction Era.

Here, here. My husband is from Memphis, though, and he refused to vote for Ford. He knew too many bad things about his family. I told him not to base his vote on that, but he has the right to vote for who he wants.

If Corker wins, I'll feel almost as bad as I did when Bush won the last election. Almost, but not quite. I cried when Bush won last time and decided to come out of the political closet. No more hiding my liberalism from everyone around me.

[Southern_girl29]

Looks like Corker has won. WSMV out of Nashville is declaring him the winner with 51 percent of the vote and 94 percent of the precincts reporting. I'm really disappointed.

[billythrilly7th]

The lawyers are flying to Virginia to battle for control of the Senate.

[emeraldcite]

The lawyers are flying to Virginia to battle for control of the Senate.


I'm seeing two different counts. The one on CNN is different than Virginia's Board of Elections...

[emeraldcite]

strike that last statement...seems like virginia caught up with cnn.

maybe i should check fox news...

[Opty]

Looks like Corker has won. WSMV out of Nashville is declaring him the winner with 51 percent of the vote and 94 percent of the precincts reporting. I'm really disappointed.

Yeah, CNN and the AP called it about 10 minutes ago, too.

It's really disappointing. Corker is slime incarnate but I guess too many Tennesseans would rather elect a lying, shady dirtbag than elect a black Democrat.

[billythrilly7th]

Forgetting all political affiliation, does it make anyone nervous that we're going to have a female SPEAKER of the House?

Oh boy, no one will be able to get a word in.

She'll never shut up.

holla!!

IT'S A JOKE!!!!!!!!

JEEZ!!!!

You gonna be mad at Bill Maher too!!!!

holla!!!

[Southern_girl29]

Yeah, CNN and the AP called it about 10 minutes ago, too.

It's really disappointing. Corker is slime incarnate but I guess too many Tennesseans would rather elect a lying, shady dirtbag than elect a black Democrat.

I just looked at CNN to see the break down by counties. I thought it would be closer in Coffee County, where I work. At the newspaper where I work, we are all assigned a precinct to cover. At my precinct, Corker won, but it was about half and half with the others.

Most of us in the newsroom are going to be disappointed tomorrow, as we were all (pretty much) rooting for Ford.

[billythrilly7th]

I'm calling the Senate for the Democrats.

Whew!!

My worst nightmare would have been to lose the House, keep the Senate and have the American people, not always the brightest bunch, have to figure out who is doing what and who did what two years from now and trying to divide blame and praise...33% Senate etc....

"Who am I mad at? Who do I like? I don't get it, Madge."

Now, it's clear.

Democrats control Congress. I control the White House.

Everything is clear and in 2008 the people will have a clear choice.

[alleycat]

Yeah, CNN and the AP called it about 10 minutes ago, too.

It's really disappointing. Corker is slime incarnate but I guess too many Tennesseans would rather elect a lying, shady dirtbag than elect a black Democrat.
Or elect anyone but someone from the Ford family (outside of Memphis).

But . . . he's be back. Ford's future in politics isn't over.

[billythrilly7th]

P.S. Gaffer, great job in your thread.

[robeiae]

Whew! I have to say, I'm pretty pleased. If things hadn't worked out like this, there is no way I could have survived another 2-6 years of whining about rigged voting machines and the like...

[TheGaffer]

HELLO!!!!

I'm sorry. So sorry. I was so busy looking at returns and talking to my wife and family members I just didn't have time for AW.

Thrills, I really, really appreciate the sentiment in naming the thread after me. It's really cool. :)

Be back in a few. I'm gonna migrate my predictions post over here to see just how I did.

[TheGaffer]

Let's see what happened, huh?

Dems take the House by winning 27 seats, so that's about nine votes to spare.
Check. As of right now though they've taken 28 seats and will likely end up winning more than that. Probably about 30 total.

In a bizarre twist, the GOP guy replacing Mark Foley wins his seat while Tom "I hide behind children at press conferences" Reynolds and a couple of the other guys intimately involved lose. The Democrats also, bizarrely, win a congressional seat in Idaho of all places.

This one didn't happen. Foley's seat actually went Democratic, Tom Reynolds held on because the Democratic candidate, well, he didn't seem to want to campaign. The Idaho thing didn't happen. A long-shot anyway.

Tom Delay's seat ends up in Dem Nick Lampson's hands as the write-in gambit falters.
Yep.

Relentless gay-basher Marilyn Musgrave goes down to defeat in Colorado, while Ohio idiot Jean Schmidt (who Salon did a nice article about the other day, showing her to actually be more soft-spoken than anything else and not a firebreathing jerk) ends up winning her seat by a squeaker.

Musgrave held on, the b****. Schmidt also won. 1 of 2 here.

Two House seats go to the courts to figure out the winner. One goes D, one goes R.
Meh, I don't know about this.

The Senate comes out to a 51-49 advantage to the Dems, as Democrats win 6 seats, with big victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania, a solid win in Rhode Island, and squeakers in Montana and...Virginia.
Ho daddy. Can we say 100% accurate here? It's too early to tell on those last 2, but Webb has a 8000 vote lead now and Tester seems likely to hang on. Meanwhile, Santorum got hammered.

New Jersey ends up being about a six-point win for Menendez (thanks for making this a race, Corzine, you dope...next time appoint Howard Stern, ok?); Cardin wins comfortably in Maryland.
Seven-point win for Menendez. Ten point win for Cardin.

Corker wins going away against Harold Ford.
Not exactly. He won by 3.

Arizona is a surprisingly close win for the incumbent Repub Kyl.

A nine point loss isn't bad, but it's not "close."

Missouri's race goes to the courts but McCaskill takes it by one vote after the votes of Kurt Warner and Brenda Warner are invalidated because they no longer live in St. Louis, as he is now the backup for the Arizona Cardinals. (Plus he sucks.) The Republicans immediately start courting JoeMentum to try to swing the Senate back to their side.

McCaskill already won. And we'll see on Jomentum.

Bill Nelson beats Katherine Harris 58% to 31%, but Harris declares herself the winner anyway and says it was a conspiracy against Jewish people (she recently said she used to dream of Israel while riding her bike and wondered if she was adopted...).
60% to 38%, actually.

Biggest margin of victory among governor races is in the great state of New York, where Spitzer grabs 71% of the vote. Biggest margin of victory in the Senate races is in Utah, where Orrin Hatch wins 66% of the vote; Hillary is 2nd with 64% in New York.

I was right on with Spitzer. The biggest winner in the Senate was Dick Lugar who didn't have an opponent. Oh well. :)

[dclary]

Whew! I have to say, I'm pretty pleased. If things hadn't worked out like this, there is no way I could have survived another 2-6 years of whining about rigged voting machines and the like...

Yeah, I noticed all the "election rigging" arguments kinda vanished into thin air the minute it looked like Dems might win. These guys have been the sorest losers ever for 12 years. Now maybe we'll get something out of them other than "We hates the republicanses! hates them forever!"

[TheGaffer]

Yeah, I noticed all the "election rigging" arguments kinda vanished into thin air the minute it looked like Dems might win.

Which, of course, was replaced by Ken Mehlman telling sympathetic bloggers that they were seeing waves of dem intimidation and voter supression in Pennsylvania and Ohio (which, until yesterday, was completely controlled by Republicans).

[dclary]

Which, of course, was replaced by Ken Mehlman telling sympathetic bloggers that they were seeing waves of dem intimidation and voter supression in Pennsylvania and Ohio (which, until yesterday, was completely controlled by Republicans).

Oh, I don't know that Ohio was that completely controlled by Republicans, if the presidential election swung so narrowly repub last year.

Honestly, though, Gaff... complaints about the election this year compared to 2000, 2004? Same level, intensity? Giving sympathetic bloggers blog material isn't quite the same thing, imo.

[TheGaffer]

Honestly, though, Gaff... complaints about the election this year compared to 2000, 2004? Same level, intensity? Giving sympathetic bloggers blog material isn't quite the same thing, imo.

No, not really.

But complaints in 2000 were more than justified, bro.

[dclary]

No, not really.

But complaints in 2000 were more than justified, bro.

They really weren't. No need to hash it out, but I ask you to consider these two facts:

Al Gore had a massive lead in the polls during the primaries, due to being the incumbent VP of a very popular president. He squandered that ENTIRE lead through massively inept campaigning. There never should have been a single state deciding this vote, and wouldn't have been if anyone else had been running.

Every single official recount of the florida results had Bush winning. Even the privately funded ones completed after the election was forcibly closed said that Bush would win -- except for one particular scenario which had Gore winning by three votes.

2000 was unique, for sure. But I honestly do not believe there was any foul play involved. Gore should have won -- but he lost that election himself. He didn't need any help from George W. or Karl Rove.

[robeiae]

I vote against every Florida Supreme Court Judge, every year they're on the ballot (since 2000). But they still keep getting retained. Unbelievable.

[TheGaffer]

Al Gore had a massive lead in the polls during the primaries, due to being the incumbent VP of a very popular president. He squandered that ENTIRE lead through massively inept campaigning. There never should have been a single state deciding this vote, and wouldn't have been if anyone else had been running.

This is a separate issue. And you're right about all of it. Regardless, there were serious issues with the integrity of the voting process in Florida. I don't really want to get into all of it again, either, but it's not as if there weren't issues. That isn't disputed.

But should Al Gore have won handily? Yes. I had severe problems with how the media approached that election as well, portraying the candidates as essentially the same, with Bush being just 'more likeable.' And to his credit, Bush ran a good race that time out, downplaying just how ridiculously conservative he was going to end up being. He seems to have been much more bipartisan in Texas.

[dclary]

He seems to have been much more bipartisan in Texas.

I think everyone's disappointed in how Bush turned out.

[TheGaffer]

I think everyone's disappointed in how Bush turned out.

With the exception of Cheney, Rummy, Sean Hannity, a bunch of blowhards in the blogosphere, and Ahmadinejad.

[dclary]

With the exception of Cheney, Rummy, Sean Hannity, a bunch of blowhards in the blogosphere, and Ahmadinejad.

No, I think they're disappointed too. Honestly. You think the neocons were happy with invading just one nation? No. And now, thanks to Bush, that may be all they get to accomplish.

Hannity? He's just a talking head. He doesn't care who wins as long as people hear him blather about it.

Iran? They hate Israel. They don't give a rat's *** about us, except in regards to how we support her.

[robeiae]

I had severe problems with how the media approached that election as well, portraying the candidates as essentially the same, with Bush being just 'more likeable.'
But Bush lacked gravitas. Apparently, Gore did not...probably, he needed to exercise a little more often.

[TheGaffer]

Yeah, but Gore sighed a lot. That made him bad.


Getting back to official tally type stuff, right now it looks like with about 8 to 10 House races up in the air awaiting recounts and revotes (23rd district Texas will have a runoff b/c the GOP rep didn't get 50% of the vote, only got 48%, and the Democrats split the rest among like 135523 candidates). But if everything stands, it means the Dems will have picked up an even 30.

Just some stats for those interested.

[billythrilly7th]

It's amazing that 30 is the historical average for what happens in the sixth year of a Presidency and we hit it, right on the nose.

We're becoming too predictiable, us Americans.

We're like monkeys in a space capsule. On autopilot. That's why we're losing in Iraq.

Our enemies realize that when it comes to America.

"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior."
Dr. Phil

I pledge that in my sixth year that I will not lose in the 30 range.

It will be minimal or a landslide. Stay tuned.

Thank you.

[TheGaffer]

It's amazing that 30 is the historical average for what happens in the sixth year of a Presidency and we hit it, right on the nose.

Actually I'm not exactly sure its the average. Eisenhower lost 48 seats in 1956. Nixon lost the same in 1974, but he'd already resigned.

Reagan lost 5 seats. Clinton gained 5 seats.

Making the average about 23 or so. But it's a small sample size.

[billythrilly7th]

I don't crunch the numbers...I just relay the info...

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3325826,00.html

For those familiar with American political history, the Democrats' achievements in the elections for Congress in George W. Bush's sixth year in office came as no surprise. As a rule, all presidents who served a second term in the 20th century led their parties to defeat in their sixth year, with the extent of the shift in favor of the president's opposing party being on average 30 seats in Congress and six in the Senate.

30 is the number.

That's what I heard all last night while watching and is the reported number in news reports.

Feel free to recrunch and ask them for retractions and apologies.

[TheGaffer]

Ah, 20th century. I was just doing post-war.

[WerenCole]

Marriage = Man + Woman ONLY winning in Virginia.

Well done, Virginians.


Screw off. . . I voted NO. Its writing discrimination with consequences for hetero couples in three sentences. . . We already had a state law banning gay marriage, which is wrong in the first place, why add an amendment to our state constitution saying the same thing and making the lives of unmarried yet living together couples difficult? Makes no sense. It was a ploy by Republicans to get out the vote. The wording made it confusing as to what it actually is supposing. Also. . . this style amendment has been proposed in 20 different states in the past five years and IT HAS NEVER LOST. Only in Virginia though does it screw almost everybody, not just homosexuals looking for the benefits of marriage.

I know of several couples who are planning to leave the state which is just a shame.

[WerenCole]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/11/09/va.senate/index.html


8,000 votes short and nowhere to turn. The only hope he had were absentee ballots which tend to be filed by businessmen who are not currently in the state, but that will not cover the difference.

Good. I saw the results with 94% reporting around 11 pm that night with Allen the projected winner and Gail (something) of the Green party taking 1% of the vote. I was about to call for her head (since Green will vote Blue if there is no Green on the ballot)

Everything worked out though.

I voted for Nader in 2000 and have been regretting it ever since. What can I say? He came to Charlottesville and had a rally in the pub I worked, bought all of the staff a beer for their work. . . bought me a beer, bought my vote, Gore lost the election. Oh well. Maybe I shouldn't comprimise my political values to ease my alcoholic tendencies.

[TheGaffer]

A lot of stupid decisions made by people in this world, one way or another, have involved beer. You're not the first, werencole. And you won't be the last.