almost election time....

[jbal]

better fill up on gas while it's still cheap.

I can't believe I'm calling $2.00 a gallon cheap.

just a friendly reminder.

[WerenCole]

Agreed sir.


Down with George Allen! I will be voting for the other guy. . . umm. . .Jim Webb. I am not sure what I think of him, but at least he is not George Boy (and Dubya's lap dog).

[blacbird]

Agreed sir.


Down with George Allen! I will be voting for the other guy. . . umm. . .Jim Webb. I am not sure what I think of him, but at least he is not George Boy (and Dubya's lap dog).

Macaca!

caw.

[billythrilly7th]

Dems take House with about 5 votes to spare.

Senate becomes a Tie with Cheney as deciding vote.

You heard it here first.

OR....

Dems take House and Senate by a slim margin.

OR.....

Dems take both by landslides.

OR...

Repubs hold both by the slimmest of margins our equipment can measure. Almost invisible, but it's there.

Thank you.

Good luck and remember as always.....NO WAGERING.

[BottomlessCup]

I predict:

Diebold delivers another squeeker to the Republicans.

[billythrilly7th]

Things are close enough in so many races that we could and probably will get into a Florida situation again. The lawyers are mobilizing as we speak.

How much fun would that be on these here boards!!!!?

[blacbird]

Dems take House with about 5 votes to spare.

Senate becomes a Tie with Cheney as deciding vote.



Damn, Thrills, we're in pretty close agreement on this one. I wish I could sit with you watching returns Tuesday night. I have a nice bottle of 12-year-old Laphroiag untapped, which I intend to taste a little of. We could listen to Neil Young and Bob Dylan and get wasted wonderfully.

My predicts are the same in the House, a 5-vote margin being about right. In the Senate, I'll take Dems picking up 4 seats, leaving Repubs 51-49 ahead. I'd bet you a nickel, but Congress just forbade Internet gambling. So I'll bet you a rep point: If it's 50-50 or the Dems actually take the Senate, you win; if it's 51-49 or the Repubs do better, I win. Deal or no deal?

caw.

[blacbird]

A digressive aside: My son, now 18, just graduated from high school (same high school that produced Mark Schlereth, famed NFL offensive lineman with five Superbowl rings now announcing on ESPN), was 12 in 2000, and I dragged him down to watch Presidential election returns. It was like watching a tulip open, the best current events educational moment ever. He's still fascinated with the American political system, and has got infatuated with competitive debate. If you have kids of the early teen or just pre-teen age, feed 'em some pizza and force 'em to watch the election returns. My kid got more real education out of that evening than he got out of four years of high school.

caw.

[billythrilly7th]

Damn, Thrills, we're in pretty close agreement on this one. I wish I could sit with you watching returns Tuesday night. I have a nice bottle of 12-year-old Laphroiag untapped, which I intend to taste a little of. We could listen to Neil Young and Bob Dylan and get wasted wonderfully.

My predicts are the same in the House, a 5-vote margin being about right. In the Senate, I'll take Dems picking up 4 seats, leaving Repubs 51-49 ahead. I'd bet you a nickel, but Congress just forbade Internet gambling. So I'll bet you a rep point: If it's 50-50 or the Dems actually take the Senate, you win; if it's 51-49 or the Repubs do better, I win. Deal or no deal?

caw.

A. The first part sounds delightful. Except I don't have a clue as to what a Laphroiag is. I'd just drink Andre Champagne if you don't mind.
B. Deal. Although it's very confusing. Just tell me on Wednesday whether I owe you a rep point.
:)

[blacbird]

Ahhhh . . . Laphroaig . . . uis-ghe, 'water-of'-life', malted barley distilled in fat copper flasks, aged in old sherry barrels of Spanish oak, in the old brick distillery on Islay with the cold stormy waters of the North Atlantic washing up against it, a wee dram fit for the gods. The perfect sip for a snowy winter night in front of a fireplace, watching Rick Santorum disappear from the scene (if only that one thing happens, I'll be happy).

caw.

[Opty]

Billy only drinks Reunite Asti Spumante.

[TheGaffer]

Damn, Thrills, we're in pretty close agreement on this one.
To which one? He's got 4 predictions up there. Billy probably goes home from the racetrack every week saying he won in every race by betting on every horse. ;)

But I'm assuming the first one is the serious one. So I'll go with my predictions in even more detail. I'll try to make this as much fun as I can.

Dems take the House by winning 27 seats, so that's about nine votes to spare. In a bizarre twist, the GOP guy replacing Mark Foley wins his seat while Tom "I hide behind children at press conferences" Reynolds and a couple of the other guys intimately involved lose. The Democrats also, bizarrely, win a congressional seat in Idaho of all places.

Tom Delay's seat ends up in Dem Nick Lampson's hands as the write-in gambit falters.

Relentless gay-basher Marilyn Musgrave goes down to defeat in Colorado, while Ohio idiot Jean Schmidt (who Salon did a nice article about the other day, showing her to actually be more soft-spoken than anything else and not a firebreathing jerk) ends up winning her seat by a squeaker.

Two House seats go to the courts to figure out the winner. One goes D, one goes R.

The Senate comes out to a 51-49 advantage to the Dems, as Democrats win 6 seats, with big victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania, a solid win in Rhode Island, and squeakers in Montana and...Virginia.

New Jersey ends up being about a six-point win for Menendez (thanks for making this a race, Corzine, you dope...next time appoint Howard Stern, ok?); Cardin wins comfortably in Maryland.

Corker wins going away against Harold Ford. Arizona is a surprisingly close win for the incumbent Repub Kyl. Missouri's race goes to the courts but McCaskill takes it by one vote after the votes of Kurt Warner and Brenda Warner are invalidated because they no longer live in St. Louis, as he is now the backup for the Arizona Cardinals. (Plus he sucks.) The Republicans immediately start courting JoeMentum to try to swing the Senate back to their side.

Bill Nelson beats Katherine Harris 58% to 31%, but Harris declares herself the winner anyway and says it was a conspiracy against Jewish people (she recently said she used to dream of Israel while riding her bike and wondered if she was adopted...).

Biggest margin of victory among governor races is in the great state of New York, where Spitzer grabs 71% of the vote. Biggest margin of victory in the Senate races is in Utah, where Orrin Hatch wins 66% of the vote; Hillary is 2nd with 64% in New York. Biggest in the House are obvious; Charlie Rangel once again gets like 91% and some really conservative guy in, say, Texas, wins 88% (it used to be Bob Barr in Ga. would do this, but he retired.)

I'll be in my office if anyone wants more.

[dclary]

Billy only drinks Reunite Asti Spumante.

Sadly, this is lclary's favorite wine as well. That and the sangria they serve at Medieval Times.

[aghast]

i predict the world will still turn and the sun will come out and politicians are still hypocrites who care only about themselves, so in other words nothing is going to chnage really and yeah i fill up already and will do that again on nov 6

[WerenCole]

The Senate comes out to a 51-49 advantage to the Dems, as Democrats win 6 seats, with big victories in Ohio and Pennsylvania, a solid win in Rhode Island, and squeakers in Montana and...Virginia.



Are you saying that just to make me feel better?


Really though, I am getting kind of nervous. We may have elected two straight democratic governors (and one is now a senator) but Georgy Boy gives me the willies and there does not seem to be a strong tide for Webb right now. I wouldn't say Georgy Boy is going incredibly strong either. . . still though. . .

[TheGaffer]

It's my surprise bet, Werencole. Last 5-6 polls average out to a Webb lead of about 3-4 points. It's not much, but it's something.

[blacbird]

The party that wins in Virginia likely winds up controlling the Senate. Dems are a lock to pick up three Senate seats (Ohio, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania). Lieberman wins as an Indie in Connecticut, but he'll vote with his real party most of the time. I think Dems win Montana, too, which leaves Tennessee and Missouri still some up for grabs, as well as Virginia. But if Virginians re-elect Senator Doofus, we'll know which way the Senate wind blows.

caw.

[TheGaffer]

I'm no longer sure, blac. Five seats gets the Dems a 50-50 tie. To me Virginia is starting to turn less on the country's mood and more on George Allen's snafus during this campaign. Barring some crazy upset in Arizona or a collapse by Menendez, I think it turns on Missouri. (Of course, if Va. does indeed re-elect Sen. Clownface, then it's 51-49 GOP.)

[Kasey Mackenzie]

Unfortunately, while I would LOVE to predict that my state will swing toward the Democrats...I don't have much faith that it will actually happen. There are a LOT more rural voters who traditionally favor Republicans than urban voters who traditionally favor the Dems. And yes, I am majorly generalizing, but that's just the way it tends to run these days...Maybe they'll pleasantly surprise me, though. Not that I'm particularly thrilled with EITHER choice! (And I don't consider myself a Democrat, but an Independent who definitely agrees more with Dems than Repubcs in most matters.)

[billythrilly7th]

Don't forget when it comes to these polls.

Many people don't answer honestly.

And Bush is so villified that a lot of people would rather just lie then face the possible disdain and deep sigh that may come from the poller.

Like what happened in '04.

You think a Republican who just voted for Bush wanted to tell the really cute perky 18 year old chick with the Greenpeace sweatshirt the truth after exiting the polling place.

"Who'd you vote for, sir?!"

"Uh....Kerry...I'm a hardcore democrat and I think we need a change."

"Great, thanks, sir!"

If I were democrats the thing that would keep me up at night more than a John Kerry newsconference or speech is the very art of polling and it's reliance on truthfullness from humans with all their foibles.

Good luck!!!

:)

[TheGaffer]

Billy.

I spent 20 minutes or so with those predictions.

Hoping for at least an amusing response from you.

I got nothing in return.

This is a disappointment.

[billythrilly7th]

Corker wins going away against Harold Ford.

Yes. Harold Ford has essentially conceded the election.

I just saw Bob Corker for the first time in an interview.

Very nice guy.

I like him a lot.

I looked through his eyes and into his soul.

[blacbird]

I looked through his eyes and into his soul.

The way Dubya did with Putin?

caw.

[billythrilly7th]

Billy.

I spent 20 minutes or so with those predictions.

Hoping for at least an amusing response from you.

I got nothing in return.

This is a disappointment.

I'm sorry.

Honestly, I was scared for you because of how in depth that work was.

I thought "my god, this boy is monitoring this election like...uh...a metaphor for something that is really in depth monitoring..."

(ETA: Like an air traffic controller on the day before Thanksgiving. I picture you sitting at your computer refreshing and searching for the latest polling data like a lunatic)

I was actually a little scared. Like..."what will Gaffer do if the dems should lose on Tuesday. This is like Game 7 of the World Series for him and he's up by 6 runs going into the 9th inning. If it doesn't happen, the boy might just say "thank you, world, it's been fun..." and check out."

And I also thought, honestly, "this boy should start working for some campaigns. He obviously has a passion for politics and would be a great number cruncher.."

Obama: How we looking in Kalamazoo, Gaffer?
Gaffer: I'd put us at +2%. I think we're going to be fine. But, we must get out the vote in the Breezy Flats Housing Project or we could lose it.
Obama: Get on that then.
Gaffer: Will do, but how about a "please?"
Obama: Please.
Gaffer: Thank you, sir. On it.

[TheGaffer]

Honestly, I was scared for you because of how in depth that work was.

1. I do enjoy number-crunching.
2. I am a bit obsessive.

But I did try to make that amusing, so I thought I'd get some kind of humorous response.

I was actually a little scared. Like..."what will Gaffer do if the dems should lose on Tuesday. This is like Game 7 of the World Series for him and he's up by 6 runs going into the 9th inning. If it doesn't happen, the boy might just say "thank you, world, it's been fun..." and check out."

You gotta stop bringing up baseball.

[billythrilly7th]

You gotta stop bringing up baseball.

102 days until pitchers and catchers report.

[WerenCole]

Today I will be attending a get out the vote rally for Jim Webb right on my campus. . . (its just convenient. . . its starts right as I get out of class in the building next to it. . . )

This should be interesting. . . the Governor and Ex-Gov are going to be there. . . I wonder if George Boy will show up with his posse just to add a little flava flave to the occasion.

Man, these commercials are killing me. Its just dirty now. I can't remember an election with two greater mud slingers than these two rascals.

Yes, that is the word I am choosing, rascals.

Wish me luck, we are in Richmond so there could be gun fire at any time.

[robeiae]

Wish me luck, we are in Richmond so there could be gun fire at any time.You mean there's none right now? Wow. :D

[WerenCole]

Alright, well. That was interesting. I like Jim Webb a little more than I did before. Not that I would have voted for Georgy Boy anyway, but still.

My favorite part of that was listening to our future President, Mark Warner. I like him every time I see him.

We've also got a good governor in Tim Kaine.

I am still trying to figure out how Virginia became a democratic state. It. . just. . doesn't. . . fit. . .

An interesting campaign slogan that the democrats have, "Change the Course," which is of course playing off Bush's "Stay the Course" in Iraq bs. . . It works. Maybe it's a little more effective when there are a thousand students chanting it, but I walked away from this rally actually impressed with the democrats.

Georgy Boy wouldn't come within three miles of this campus if he knew what was good for him. Be that as it may, universities tend to be bastions of liberalism to begin with, thus Republicans tread lightly around them. Except maybe the ones with lots of money. They fit right in there.

Q. How do you get stuffy republicans out of office?
A. Lead an 8 year old catholic school boy through capital hill on a leash.

(that was wrong, and I'm sorry. . . but I thought it was funny)

[eldragon]

Times like these make me wish I had purchased a huge gas tank for my yard.

[TheGaffer]

Already reading of voting problems involving those damned machines.

This once again goes back to my point - the "non-suck factor" in the government. I don't think anyone can disagree that it would be nice if these damn machines would work without glitches, print out a receipt to show that the vote has been recorded properly, and then check the results from the machines against the paper printouts.

ATM machines work fine and do constant financial transactions all the time without such problems. But in this case, we can't seem to really find the wherewithal to do anything about it.

[dclary]

I actually have a patent idea for a billion-times-better voting machine, and just don't know how to sell it.

[Unique]

Much as it dismays me, I am going to vote for one of our incumbent republicans.

Not that I wanted to - but the democratic challenger thinks we should have mandatory health insurance as MA does and I just don't buy that.

Just thought I'd give you guys a lift today.

::::walks off muttering about the dearth of good candidates::::